Three reports about Japan

1. Japan’s Payout Most Among U.S. Allies. Yomiuri Shimbun, November 16, 2016. 

        The Japanese overnment plans to ask U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to reconsider the comments he made during his campaign demanding that U.S. allies, including Japan, spend more to host U.S. forces, according to sources. Tokyo believes Japan already bears a large share of the costs. In addition to its host nation support, Japan has been sharing other expenses, including those for relocating U.S. forces. Its financial contribution comes to about ¥760 billion a year, the highest among U.S. allies, according to the Defense Ministry’s internal calculations.

According to the report [not published], Estimated Amount of Host Nation Support for Stationing U.S. Forces (in billions of US dollars)

	Japan	6.88
	South Korea	0.91
	Germany	1.7
	Italy	0.4
	Britain	0.26
	Spain	0.14
	Saudi Arabia	0.06

   

1b. New webpage created on Japanese PM website to explain GSDF’s new duties, Yomiuri, November 19, 2016         

Defense Minister Tomomi Inada issued an order on Nov. 18 assigning the new duties of “rushing to the rescue” and “joint defense of camps” to the Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) troops to be sent to South Sudan for UN peacekeeping operations (PKO). In light of the uncertain security situation in South Sudan, the people are still concerned about these new duties. Therefore, the government created on the same day a special webpage on the new GSDF duties on the Kantei (Prime Minister’s Official Residence) website for the purpose of dispelling such concerns.

The new webpage uses videos, photos, and graphics to explain the significance of the SDF mission in South Sudan and details of the new duties. In answer to concerns about increased risks faced by SDF members, the webpage says that the new duties “will only be performed within the scope of the SDF’s capability while ensuring safety.” 

2. Japanese Back Global Engagement Despite Concern About Domestic Economy: Roughly half see U.S. as a threat, majority see U.S. in decline by Bruce Stokes, Director, Global Economic Attitudes, PewResearch Center, 10/31/16, 24 pgs. 

 A telephone survey conducted April 26 to May 29, 2016 of 1,000 respondents in Japan found that a majority (58%) believe that it is a good thing for Japan to be economically involved with the world. 59% of the Japanese public also support aiding other countries in dealing with their own problems. Looking outward is juxtaposed against the 62% who say Japan should limit its military role in the Asia-Pacific region, and the merely 30% who believe economic conditions in their country are good (down 7% from last year).

 Views of longtime ally the United States and regional rival China remain consistent: 72% of Japanese have a favorable view of the United States, while 86% express an unfavorable opinion of China. However, this optimism does not translate into faith in US hegemony. About 61% say the U.S. plays a less important and powerful role as a world leader today compared with 10 years ago. The survey also found that only 9% of Japanese polled have confidence in Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in world affairs; an overwhelming 82% expressed no confidence.

 Japanese are divided on the state of their country: 47% are satisfied and 45% are dissatisfied. Yet contentment with the country’s direction today is at its highest since 2002. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe draws generally positive reviews; 52% approve of his handling of the economy, and 74% give a positive grade to Abe’s handling of relations with the United States

2b. Report     Data

2c. See also: Commentary: Japanese among most outward looking by Bruce Stokes, PewResearch, Nikkei Asian Review, November 2, 2016

3. Japan among Worst Performers in Fighting Climate Change: Germanwatch. Japan Times, November 17, 2016.

Japan remains one of the world’s worst-performing nations in tackling climate change, think tank Germanwatch said Wednesday. Japan was deemed the second-worst performer of 57 countries and Taiwan, this year’s Climate Change Performance Index report showed. The report said Tokyo’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions center on reactivating nuclear energy as more or less the only alternative to fossil fuels, “instead of sufficiently promoting renewable energy.”

The performance of the world’s two largest emitters, USA (43) and China (48), is still rated "poor" in the CCPI. The United States lost some ground in almost every Index category and as a result dropped several places. The election results in the USA might pose risks to the speed of the ongoing transition. The election of Donald Trump as president has however not yet had any influence on the policy evaluation presented in CCPI 2017. Despite China being rated “poor”, positive developments are seen thanks to shrinking consumption of coal globally, which resulted in China stopping the construction of 30 coal fired power plants the last year.

Press Release: https://germanwatch.org/en/13119

About Climate Change Performance Index: https://germanwatch.org/en/CCPI

Full Report 2016: https://selectra.co.uk/sites/selectra.co.uk/files/pdf/Germanwatch-2016.pdf

American Public Opinion on US Foreign Policy 2016

On October 6, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in partnership with The Washington Post and the Wilson Center released its 2016 Survey of American Public Opinion on US Foreign Policy entitled America in the Age of Uncertainty, (48 pgs, conducted June 10-27, 2016] with a panel of experts—Council President Ivo Daalder, Wilson Center President Jane Harman, Kori Schake of the Hoover Institution, report author and senior Council fellow Dina Smeltz, and moderator Jackson Diehl of The Washington Post.

Trump backers are the least likely to support globalization and to say that free trade has been good for the US economy. They are also least likely to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. 

However, Trump has questioned long-standing tenets of US foreign policy, including US alliance commitments to Japan and South Korea; while Trump’s core supporters stand with his policy stances on trade, globalization, and immigration, they do not align with his views on broader international engagement. 

Among the overall public, 89 percent say that maintaining existing alliances is very or somewhat effective at achieving US foreign policy goals. That view has bipartisan support: Democrats (94%), Republicans (88%), and Independents (86%) all view maintaining existing alliances as very or somewhat effective, as do 84 percent of core Trump supporters. 

Trump’s supporters favor projecting US military power abroad through basing. Core Trump supporters are as or more likely than other Americans to support long-term US military bases in Japan and South Korea. In general, support for maintaining U.S. military bases in South Korea is at an all-time high with 70 percent polled saying that the United States should maintain long-term bases, up from 64 percent in 2015. Maintaining bases in Japan found overall support at 60 percent, and maintaining bases in Australia at 46 percent.

One reason for this increased support appears to be the growing perception of North Korea as a critical threat to the United States. In 2016, six in ten Americans thought that North Korea’s nuclear program is a critical threat to the United States. That trails only international terrorism (75 percent critical) and is virtually tied with the possibility of unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers (61 percent) on a list of 13 possible threats. For North Korea’s nuclear program, this is a 5 percentage point increase from 2015 when the question was first asked.

An overall majority of Americans favor cooperating with China (63%) over actively working to limit its influence. The report suggests that although Donald Trump has gained traction in the presidential race, his views on important issues garner only minority support from the overall American public.

Press Release: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/press-release/poll-trump-taps-longstanding-trade-and-immigration-fears-finds-minority-constituency

This week in Washington

RETHINKING U.S. SECURITY: NAVIGATING A WORLD IN TRANSITION. 6/13, 9:00am-7:30pm, lunch, reception, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Center for New American Security (CNAS). Keynote Address: The Asia-Pacific Century, The Honorable Dr. Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Speakers include: Sultan al-Qassemi, The National Newspaper; Lieutenant General David W. Barno, USA (Ret.), CNAS; Dr. Nora Bensahel, CNAS; Phillip Carter, Caerus Associates; Rajiv Chandrasekaran, The Washington Post; Dr. Andrew Exum, CNAS; Dr. Peter Feaver, Duke University; Michèle Flournoy, Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; Richard Fontaine, CNAS; The Honorable Robert Ford, U.S. Ambassador to Syria; Dr. Margaret Harrell, CNAS; Dr. Bruce Jentleson, Duke University; Dr. Robert Kagan, The Brookings Institution; Dr. Colin Kahl, CNAS; Dr. Kristin Lord, CNAS; Major Fernando Lujan, USA, CNAS; Sebastian Mallaby, Council on Foreign Relations; Michael Singh, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy; and Robert Zoellick, World Bank.

GLOBAL VIEWS OF THE UNITED STATES. 6/13, 11:00am-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Andrew Kohut, President, Pew Research Center; Moderator: H. Andrew Schwartz, Senior Vice President, CSIS.

THE EVOLVING U.S.-CHINA TRADE & INVESTMENT RELATIONSHIP. 6/14, 8:45am-2:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: US China Economic and Security Review Commission. Speakers: Judith Dean, Professor of International Economics, Brandeis University; Shang Jin Wei, N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy, Columbia University; Yingying Xu, Ph.D., Economist and Council Director, Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI); Michael McCarthy, Chief Legal Counsel, Infinera Corporation; James Fellowes, Chairman and CEO, Fellowes Inc. Ahmed Siddiqui, Founder of Go Go Mongo! ; Nova Daly, Public Policy Consultant, Wiley Rein LLP David Fagan, Partner, Covington and Burling LLP.

MARITIME BORDER ISSUES IN NORTHEAST ASIA. 6/15, Noon-2:00pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: East-West Center in Washington (EWC), Slavic Research Center and Border Studies Program of Hokkaido University. Speakers: Thomas Bickford, Center for Naval Analysis (TBC); Abraham Denmark, National Bureau of Asian Research; Akihiro Iwashita, Hokkaido University; Tony Payan, University of Texas at El Paso; Martin Pratt, Durham University, UK.

The Obama bump

2010 Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Obama More Popular Abroad Than At Home, Global Image of U.S. Continues to Benefit, The Pew Research Foundation, June 21, 2010.

This year's survey was conducted from April 7 to May 8, 2010, in 22 nations with over 24,000 individuals participating.

The US continues to have a favorable image in Asia. China in particular held significantly more favorable views compared with 2009, jumping from 47% to 58%. In the same period, ratings in Japan also rose from 59% to 66%, and for South Korea 78% to 79%.

Economically, there was gloom across the board, with the exception of China, India, and Brazil. The survey also indicated that a growing number of people view China as overtaking the US in terms of economic power (but not in military power).

The surveys in China were disproportionately done in urban areas (the sample was 67% urban, whereas China’s population is only 43% urban).

Text (176 pages); Report Overview (10 pages)

Video of Report Press Conference at CSIS

Tokyo to DC: We Kan work it out

Recent opinion polls show that the Japanese public may forgive the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). They seem to accept that a government under Prime Minister Naoto Kan is in better hands than under Yukio Hatoyama. This is translating into a brighter outlook for the DPJ in the upcoming July Upper House elections.

Pollster Yoshiya Kobayashi has reported clear signs of a sudden return of electoral confidence in the DPJ. His latest election outlook published in the daily Fuji on June 17th was far more positive than earlier ones carried out by rival pollsters only a week or two ago.

Kobayashi, analyzing data from across the country, predicts that in the July 11 House of Councilors election the DPJ would gain five seats to a total of 121, only one short a majority in the 242-seat chamber. Teaming with its coalition partner, the People`s New Party and supportive independents, the DPJ would then command 128 seats in the Upper House, according to the simulation.

In contrast, the former ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decimated since its defeat last August would lose three seats in the election to hold only 69 seats. Prior to Kan’s selection as PM, pundits predicted that the DPJ would lose its Upper House majority, creating another “twisted Diet” in which the opposition could block bills in the Upper House. Passage of controversial bill would therefore requiring a Lower House override vote each time. That situation existed during the last two years of LDP rule, paralyzing the legislative process.

This is not to say that there is clear sailing for the DPJ to an election victory next month. Japanese voters, although favoring the DPJ, have become loyal to none. The tabloid weeklies, always ready to draw political blood, are already in the hunt. Last week they alleged political-contribution improprieties against the prime minister, as well as alleging an extramarital affair.

The greater danger for upsetting the electorate lies in the DPJ's just released manifesto that surprisingly contains a promise to raise taxes, until now a taboo subject for the DPJ. Though couched in the context of tax reform and bipartisan cooperation, the decision to go into an election campaign with such baggage is high-risk politics.

The dailies on June 18 all top-played the words of Kan to consider doubling the current consumption tax to 10%. In the past, those prime ministers who promised to raise taxes were severely chastised at the polls.

Voters are already reacting. In a nationwide poll released June 21, Asahi found that the Kan Cabinet's support rate has dropped nine points in a week to 50%, with half of the public reacting negatively to Kan's reference to the possibility of the consumption tax doubling to 10%. The Sunday TV talk were dominated by the consumption tax issue, with opposition party representatives denouncing the DPJ’s promise to consider hiking the rate.

Alliance–friendly manifesto?

The new DPJ manifesto has significantly shifted gears in its treatment of the US-Japan alliance. Last year's version reflected the Party's desire to veer away from the US, review the Alliance relationship, and move closer to Asia. What stands out in the new manifesto is the priority placed on “deepening the Japan-US relationship.” The manifesto still calls for a revision of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), but the part about “reviewing the US forces realignment and the modality of US bases in Japan” has been removed.

Washington policymakers will be also glad to see included the promise to “ease the burden on Okinawa based on the Japan-US agreement” on the relocation of Futenma Air Station to the Henoko area of Nago City.

The consideration given to the US and the Alliance can be said to reflect the pragmatism of Kan. He says he has learned from Hatoyama`s mistakes. Whereas the Hatoyama administration apparently saw Japan's relations with the US and with China as a zero-sum game, the Kan Administration seems to be trying to bring back a balance based on existing realities and not on wide-eyed idealism.

There appears to be a desire now to move toward a more cooperative and productive relationship with the US, something that the previous Administration avoided. In other words, the DPJ has inched closer to the traditional posture of the LDP in its security relationship with the US.

The manifesto stabilizes Japan’s relationship with the U.S. and allows the DPJ to focus on domestic issues. This should allow Washington to recover some of its confidence in Tokyo, while it determines what the new government can really deliver. It also should ease anxieties among the stability-minded Japanese public. In all, it is not that change in Japan is over, it is more likely that it will be more orderly.

William Brooks
APP Senior Fellow

Polls not pillars

Opinion Poll: 2010 U.S Image of Japan, June 1, 2010, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs commissioned the Gallup Organization to conduct an opinion poll on the image of Japan in the United States of America from February to March 2010. This poll is the latest in a series of similar opinion polls conducted almost every year since 1960. For the “general public” group, telephone interviews were carried out with 1,201 citizens aged 18 and over who live in the continental United States. For the “opinion leaders” group, telephone interviews were carried out with 202 people in leading positions in the fields of government, business, academics, mass media, religion, and labor unions. (The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3% for the “general public” group and plus or minus 7% for the “opinion leaders” group, at the 95% level of confidence.)

The percentage who perceived Japan as a dependable ally was 79% among the general public and was 90% among opinion leaders, high figures similar to the last year’s poll. 72% of the general public and 86% of opinion leaders viewed cooperation between Japan and the U.S. as “excellent” or “good.” In addition, the percentage of those who agreed that the Japanese and American people had a good understanding of each other was 43% among the general public, and 32% among opinion leaders.

For the first time, there was a question for opinion leaders only on whether the U.S. should import Japanese high speed rail technology: 49%said yes; 23% said no; and 12% said the US should import another country’s technology.

The Japanese version has a fuller explanation of the results as well as graphs.

Opinion Poll: Australian Image of Japan, May 27, 2010, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs commissioned a local private research agency to conduct an opinion poll on the image of Japan in Australia from November 10 to 14, 2009 (compilation of the results was completed in March 2010). This poll is the tenth in a series of similar opinion polls conducted in Australia (the previous poll was conducted in March 2006). A summary of the results is as follows.

Approximately 50% rated Japan-Australia relations as “excellent” or “good.” 25% answered that Japan and Australia should be closer in every respect , 37% answered that the current relationship should be maintained, and 30% answered that there should be more distance between the two countries (the responses from the previous poll were 27%, 66%, and 1%, respectively).

In response to the question of whether Japan is a reliable friend of Australia, 60% said “no” while 20% said “yes.” This is in direct contrast to the previous poll, in which approximately 10% answered “no” and 60% answered “yes.” In response to the question of whether Japan is culturally different and difficult to understand, the number of people agreeing or strongly agreeing increased to approximately 80% from approximately 60% in the previous poll.

As to the question of whether Japan is active enough in world affairs, given its economic size, 51% of the respondents answered negatively (in the previous poll, 58% answered affirmatively).

Regarding the whaling issue, 59% either disagreed or strongly disagreed to whaling off Japan. There were many anti-whaling responses for each question (no questions about whaling were asked in the previous poll). 

The Japanese version has a fuller explanation of the results as well as graphs.


Australia and the World: Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, May 31, 2010, Lowry Institute.

6th annual survey of Australian public opinion on a range of foreign policy issues. New questions this year cover the Rudd Government’s handling of foreign policy issues during its first term in office, whether Australia should develop nuclear weapons, attitudes towards Indonesia and US power, sanctions against Fiji and the morality of Australia’s foreign policy.

More and more Australians view China's economic growth positively, but think that China will become a military threat to Australia within 20 years: 46 percent of those surveyed believe China will be a threat, with 19 percent of them rating the possibility as "very likely. Fifty-five percent of the 1,001 people polled consider China the world's top economic power, compared with 32 percent choosing the US, the survey revealed.

Though Australians see Washington's economic power as waning, the number of people strongly backing the Anzus Treaty (the Australia, New Zealand, US Security Treaty) and a military alliance with Washington was 86 percent, up from 63 percent three years ago. 

Voters driven to distraction as Hatoyama destination is becoming known

There does not appear to be any way for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to head off the political train wreck coming his way.

With his popularity having reached even more dangerous lows – 20 to 24 percent range -- in the latest polls, an inquest panel’s finding this week that DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa should be indicted for his money scandals, and news of his seemingly desperate decision on Futenma relocation that is only likely to bring the wrath of Okinawa down on his head, the Prime Minister seems to be coming off the rails. He has no allies in the press, with even liberal dailies friendly to the DPJ decrying his mishandling of the issues. The Western press continues also to hammer him for allegedly creating a crisis in the US-Japan alliance over the Futenma issue.

The consensus in the press, and among a growing number in his party, seems to be that Hatoyama simply cannot lead his party into the summer Upper House election with a support rate now around 20% and falling. The result would be a disaster. It would not be surprising to have him first seal up a highly unpopular deal on Futenma and then, taking responsibility for breaking a campaign pledge to move the facility out of Okinawa Prefecture, resign his seat as prime minister to make way for a more popular leader. Rumors have Finance Minister Naoto Kan, a popular figure in Japanese politics, to take the driver's seat prior to the election campaign period.

After months of hemming and hawing on where to relocate Futenma, a Marine Corps base located in downtown Ginowan City on Okinawa, and floating just about every conceivable site proposal ranging from Kyushu to Guam, the Hatoyama government, reportedly has decided, apparently in desperation, to return to square one and opt for the original relocation plan from 2006 with some modifications.

Since Hatoyama promised in last year’s election campaign to move Futenma out of the prefecture, his reneging will inevitably outrage Okinawa, where only last week approximately 90,000 demonstrators* angrily protested against any agreement that resulted in Futenma being relocated inside the prefecture. The DPJ’s coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, already has flatly come out against the plan. It is no wonder that the controversial decision was leaked to the press at the start of the Golden Week consecutive holidays, when people are on vacation and less attentive to the news.

According to the business daily Nikkei on April 29, the US government has been informed that: 1) the current plan to reclaim land along the shore line of Camp Schwab will be revised and altered to a more environmentally-friendly construction method that would involve installing a pier supported by posts; and 2) a portion of the training by the helicopter unit will be carried out on a scale of up to 1,000 troops on Tokunoshima, an island in Kagoshima Prefecture. Prime Minister Hatoyama plans to visit Okinawa May 4 to explain the new plan to Governor Nakaima. Working-level talks on the new plan will start possibly in early May.

The revised relocation plan, the third iteration since the 1995 SACO agreement, is a combination of a 1996 proposal to build a sea-based runway off Henoko and a 2006 revision to build the runway along the shoreline of Camp Schwab, with parts of it jutting into the sea. The revised plan if implemented would finally allow for the closure of Futenma, eliminating the potential danger there of another helicopter crash like the one in 2004 into an adjacent university campus, where miraculously no civilians were hurt.

The proposal to remove training to Tokunoshima, which has an existing runway, is an obvious attempt to convince Okinawa to somehow swallow the decision not to remove the helicopter unit from the prefecture. Even if the U.S. concurs with the new plan, there is no guarantee that the residents of Tokunoshima, half of whom turned out recently to protest any relocation of Marines to their island, will change their tune. And Okinawans, too, seem unlikely to forgive Hatoyama for a decision that the residents will paint as a betrayal of trust. Implementing the third iteration of the Futenma relocation plan may prove to be just as elusive as its predecessors.

Ozawa once more on hot seat

Hatoyama also faces the nation’s severe judgment for keeping in place a party leader who most Japanese want to see out of power, as the polls have repeatedly shown. The latest blow for the Prime Minister was the news on April 28 that an inquest panel had ruled DPJ Secretary General should be indicted for alleged violation of the Political Funds Control Law, even though the Tokyo District Prosecutors Office earlier this year decided not to prosecute, citing insufficient evidence. Prosecutors are now obliged to reinvestigate the case, which makes it all the more likely Ozawa will eventually be indicted. Though editorials and the public in the latest polls are clamoring for Ozawa to quit his post, the DPJ powerbroker continues to stonewall.

The Japanese public, which will soon go to the polls in the Upper House election this summer, have not only given up on the Hatoyama Cabinet, they also have turned aside from the DPJ as the party of choice. The latest round of opinion polls released this week all show Hatoyama’s popularity at an abysmally low 20-24 percent range, reminiscent of the status of the last three LDP prime minister’s before they left office.

The surveys also show rapid decline in the DPJ’s support rate, with voters either joining the unaffiliated ranks or opting to support small splinter parties. The former ruling LDP, now in shambles with defectors leaving to form mini-parties or become independents, has little appeal for disaffected voters. Even if the DPJ switches to a more popular leader and rids itself of the albatross that Ozawa has become, it seems unlikely that it will score a victory in the election, though it is too early to predict how bad the result will be. Japanese politics seems to settling into yet another long, hot summer of voter discontent.

Dr. William Brooks
APP Senior Fellow

*Japan's National Police Agency, however, estimates the crowd to be closer to only 25,000 and the US Consulate on Okinawa estimates it to have been 40,000 to 45,000 people.

Maybe Hatoyama is down for the count

Here at Asia Policy Point we like to entertain a number of perspectives and keep the intellectual dialogue fresh. Thus, not all the scholars associated with APP share the optimistic assessment of the DPJ's future as the authors of the last blogpost. Our Senior Fellow Dr. William Brooks is reading the polls and finds the DPJ coming up short.

Jiji's February poll shows the Hatoyama Cabinet support rate in a free fall, plummeting 11.4 points in a month to 35%. The full impact of the money scandal centered on DPJ Secretary General Ozawa is now being felt. Ozawa seems oblivious to calls to fully explain to the Diet and the public his role in the illegal political contribution scandal. Already three of his former aides have been indicted. Nevertheless he has vowed to remain in his post and work for his party’s win in this summer’s Upper House election.

There are press rumors he may gracefully exit before the election, but the damage may have already been done. The Jiji poll also shows that the cabinet’s non-support rate rose 12.3 points to 44%. This is a pattern that resembles the decline and fall of the previous three governments led by LDP prime ministers. Now, 85% of the Japanese public are distrustful of Ozawa’s explanations so far, with 72% wanting him to resign his post.

The same Jiji poll also shows DPJ support eroding, having slipped 4 points to 22.8% -- heading in the direction of the LDP, which inched up 1.5 points to 14.6%. Voters supporting no party form a majority, 53%, making this summer’s election hard to predict. Only 24% of the public say they will vote DPJ in the election, a drop of 6.6 points, but the LDP is not the immediate beneficiary, with only 18% planning to vote for that party. The party’s recent boycott, now ended, of crucial Diet deliberations did not serve to endear it with the public.

More distressing for the DPJ is the result of a February independent poll showing the Hatoyama Cabinet’s non-support rate at 57%, double the figure of four months ago. Only last October, Hatoyama’s popularity in that poll was a heady 74.1%. Iit has now dropped to 42.9%. What is interesting in this opinion survey, like Jiji’s, is the low party-support rates for both the DPJ (26%) and the LDP (13%) – again demonstrating that a majority of Japanese have now abandoned both parties to join the ranks of the floating voters.

Those voters for the most part may stay home in July, but if they turn out in droves to register their disappointment with the party in power, a tactic that had hurt the LDP in past Upper House elections, the DPJ could very well lose its majority in that chamber. The party is obviously aware of its predicament but remains unable to address it. There are rumors that Party envoys have sounded out the New Komeito, once the LDP’s long-standing coalition partner, to see if it would consider the same with the DPJ, thus returning to its centrist roots.

Above is a chart of surveys done by major dailies on Hatoyama Cabinet support rates. As they said in Ghostbusters, "don't cross the streams." It would be bad.

Dr. William Brooks
APP Senior Fellow

Playing safe is dangerous game for Hatoyama

Prime Minister Hatoyama has asked Japan's new public enemy No. 1 to remain by his side at the heart of Japanese politics.

Despite the national clamor for him to quit his post as secretary general of the Democratic Party of Japan, Ichiro Ozawa formally announced on Monday that he will hang in as the chief strategist for the Upper House election this fall.

The public is upset, with up to 74% wanting Ozawa to resign to take responsibility for the arrest of aides for illegal money transactions, according to polls. Over 80% remain unconvinced with his explanations in the surveys. All major dailies, too, weighed in over the weekend with the blunt suggestion to Ozawa of either explaining himself fully to the Diet or stepping down.

Even more dangerous for the powerful politician, cries for Ozawa’s resignation are starting to rise in his own party, most recently from DPJ policy chief Yukio Edano in a much televised public speech over the weekend. Edano belongs to a wing in the party that includes Seiji Maehara, a former DPJ president now in the Hatoyama cabinet. Ozawa’s arch enemies in the party are now likely to become more vocal in their criticism, fearing the worst in the upcoming election.

Creating further controversy, Ozawa’s former private secretary turned DPJ lawmaker Tomohiro Ishikawa, indicted for not reporting a $4 million political donation, also announced from Hokkaido, where he is sequestered after posting bail, that he would “hang in there” and not resign his Diet seat. But A group of Diet members from the opposition camp are preparing a resolution demanding that he quit.

Hatoyama may not realize how serious the situation has become. The daily scene of gridlock in the Diet as deliberations on the budget stall over the Ozawa scandal has eroded the public’s confidence in the DPJ administration. The latest round of opinion polls released over the weekend show further erosion of the Hatoyama Cabinet’s once sky-high popularity, with disapproval now outweighing support in most surveys.

The Yomiuri poll was typical with 47% against (up 5 points from January) versus 44% for. The public is questioning the cabinet’s ability to manage policy imperatives. According to the Yomiuri poll, 68% of the public were concerned about the future of the US-Japan relationship under the Hatoyama administration.

The subject of last Sunday’s talk show on NHK, Japan’s equivalent of BBC, was how to recover the public’s trust in politics. With representatives of every political party represented, the discussion turned into a Ozawa bashing session. Hatoyama, who has a money scandal of his own, didn't escape the blows. The lone DPJ member, an uncomfortable-looking Banri Kaieda, was forced to defend the indefensible as best he could.

A party which came into power last August 30 vowing to usher in change is now locked into a scenario reminiscent of the party it replaced. The DPJ was supposed to root out political corruption of the kind associated with the kingpins of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Prosecutors last week decided not to indict Ozawa, citing “lack of sufficient evidence.” The verdict was widely interpreted as not exonerating him from any culpability, and the public, as seen in the polls, agrees.

The hemorrhaging of his party’s public-support lifeline will continue. An NHK poll released Monday showed the support rate of the DPJ also is dropping sharply, accompanied by a spike in those who say they support no party. It was unaffiliated voters turning out in droves who propelled the DPJ into power last August. Their fickleness could do significant damage to the party in July’s Upper House race.

Young people in particular seem to disappointed with the DPJ. An NPO poll of college students of voting age (summarized in the national daily Mainichi on Saturday) found only 21% support for the Hatoyama cabinet, and another 45% sitting on the fence.

So far, the prime minister has continued to let matters run their course, unwilling to make tough decisions that might shore up his sagging public support and silence critics in the party who may want him, too, to step down. If he continues to play it safe, deferring to Ozawa’s judgment, he must steel himself to face the consequences in the election come July.

Dr William Brooks
APP Senior Fellow

America: Japan loves you

Japan's back in love with America, is quite fond of South Korea - but has yet to find a place in its heart for China.

In its annual survey for 2009 of Japanese opinions toward other countries, the Cabinet Office found feelings of friendliness toward America and South Korea at an all time high - 78.9% and 63.1%, respectively. Although good feelings toward China rose significantly compared to last year’s poll, almost two-thirds of all Japanese continue to have negative feelings.

The survey posed two simple questions toward each country with which Japan has close ties: “Do you have friendly or unfriendly feelings?” and, “Do you think that relations now are in good shape?” The latest poll was carried out in October 2009, just after Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan took office. It therefore does not reflect the public’s reaction to growing friction between the US and Japan over the proposed relocation of the US Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station in Okinawa.

The record is probably thanks to the Obama effect. Particularly resonating was his April 4, 2009, speech in Prague calling for a world without nuclear weapons. Obama’s November 13-14 visit to Japan, where he delivered a major foreign policy speech on America’s role in the region was especially well received by the Japanese public.

Only 19.1% of Japanese felt unfriendly toward America. The 2008 survey recorded 73.3% feeling friendly toward the United States and 24.8% who were not. The long-term trend in the poll, which has been carried out annually since 1978, shows the percentage of those with friendly feelings toward the US fluctuating between the high 60s and the high 70s. The previous high was 78.1% in 1991, attributed to: the end of the Cold War; lessening economic friction; and strengthening diplomatic ties regarding the first Gulf War and the growing regional threat from North Korea.

The previous high for unfriendly feelings toward the US was 28.1% in 1986, a year of strained relations over market access and tensions over American expectations of Japan in responding to the Iran-Iraq war, including a refusal to join minesweeper operations in the Persian Gulf.

In the latest poll, the percentage of Japanese who felt US-Japan relations were in good shape reached 81.8%, soaring 13 points from the record low (since 1998) of 68.9% in 2008. Those who felt relations were in bad shape dropped from a record high of 28.1% in 2008 to 14.4% in the new poll.

Previous high points were 81.8% in 2001, following 9/11, and 82.7% in 2006, an accumulation of the goodwill toward the US stemming from Japan’s contributions to the war on terror during the administrations of prime ministers Koizumi and Abe.

Given the Japanese people’s highly positive attitude toward the United States and the overall state of US relations with Japan, now would appear to be the right time for the administration in Japan to promote deeper cooperation not only on conventional areas of strategic convergence, such as dealing with the threat from North Korea, but also in productive areas of mutual global interest, such as nuclear nonproliferation and climate change.

Instead, the first few months of the Hatoyama administration have been spent wrangling over the relocation of a base in Okinawa that was decided years ago, creating strains that could affect the overall relationship over time. It would be interesting to see what Japanese views of the US would be if the poll were carried out today.

William Brooks

APP Senior Fellow

Picture from here.