LDP Rematch

Consolation Match for the Five LDP Presidency Candidates

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 15, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

A week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, the campaign for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began. It has turned into a race with five entrants – all of whom lost in the last election a year ago. The race is likely to be about which candidate can “change” the ailing party’s culture through political funding reform and can manage Diet affairs without a majority in either chamber.
 
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last September, in the face of public criticism of the kickback fund scandal by some factions in the LDP. Ishiba succeeded Kishida in the expectation that he would reform a party that relied heavily on donations from companies and business organizations. Ishiba was caught in the middle of a party struggle over whether to ban those donations.
 
Ishiba had promised last December that he would have a legislative solution to reform political donations by the end of March, but he did not deliver. Instead, he continued to discuss reforms with the opposition parties, some of which demanded the total abolition of donations from companies and organizations.
 
In the Lower House election last October, the LDP lost its majority. Responsibility for the loss fell largely on Kishida since the election took place shortly after Ishiba assumed the PM position. Ishiba could not, however, avoid responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House election last July. “I could not meet the expectation for change,” Ishiba said in his resignation press conference.
 

The LDP called a presidential election on October 4. Candidates must file entry forms on September 22, when the party will officially open the election. Five candidates are reportedly willing to run for the president.
 
Former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was the first to step forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy that would increase take-home pay for many Japanese. This policy resonates with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi also mentioned the possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) that would hold a majority in the Diet.
 
Motegi is running with the support of former colleagues in his now defunct faction, many of whom were leading the anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP after the Upper House election. He also met one-on-one with former prime minister Taro Aso, who openly opposed Ishiba. Polls have shown, however, that many Japanese did not believe that Ishiba should have resigned. This polling data may force Motegi to explain his differences with Ishiba. Motegi will have to develop a plan for party reform.
 
Other candidates try to catch up Motegi. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, announced his candidacy on September 16. As a candidate in the age of 50, representing young generation, Kobayashi upheld policies for young generation, including income tax cut. His team is headed by former Minister of Defense, Yasukazu Hamada, who is elected from Chiba, the same prefecture as Kobayashi.
 
Two ministers in Ishiba Cabinet showed apparent interest in the election on the same day. Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, revealed that he had told his candidacy to his supporters in his hometown, Yokosuka. Although official announcement will be later this week, it is surprising that Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead Koizumi’s team, instead of running for the president.
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, also told his intention to run for the president in his regular press conference. As a core member of Ishiba Cabinet, Hayashi insisted on succeeding policies of Ishiba administration. Supporters for Hayashi consist of lawmakers with former Kishiba faction, supposedly with backing of Kishida himself. He is expected to have another press conference to publicize his policies.
 
Former Minister on Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to officially announce her bid for the president later this week. She mainly receives supports from the conservative lawmakers who were frustrated with Ishiba administration. Reiterating a phrase of “rebuild backbone of the party,” Takaichi hopes to restore the cause of conservatives, which gained momentum in the time of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
 
Takaichi and Koizumi currently dominate. In the election last November, Takaichi finished second and Koizumi third. Both enjoyed broad public support in and did not rely on a specific faction. Takaichi has a firm base of support among conservatives. Koizumi has the support of former premier Yoshihide Suga and younger party members.
 
But neither one is likely to win in the first round. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 296 votes: a majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 for local party members. In any subsequent run-off election local party members have only 47 votes. The successful candidate must win at least 171 votes out of 342.
 
If the run-off pits Takaichi against Koizumi, conservative votes, including those who have supported Kobayashi, will go for Takaichi. Koizumi does not have a similar natural group of supporters. Instead, he must appeal to Ishida’s supporters. This is a tall order because Koizumi had urged Ishiba to step down. With this history, support from some of Ishiba’s allies may be hard to get. Koizumi does have the advantage of a close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation from conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

Motegi and Hayashi both rely on the power of former factions. Motegi cannot count on support from Ishiba, and Hayashi expects Ishiba’s support since he was the deputy in the prime minister’s office. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including the Aso faction, will not suffice as voting units. The LDP factions represented outmoded politics. 
 
The opposition parties have accused the LDP of creating a political vacancy in the election process. Encouraged by public opinion polls showing that the replacement of Ishiba will not raise the LDP’s credibility, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of the previous election a year ago.

Who Does Washington Want To Be Japan's Prime Minister

Someone who speaks English? But probably doesn't understand it.

By Daniel Sneider,  Lecturer, International Policy at Stanford University and APP member

First published in Toyo Keizai, September 12, 2024

As Liberal Democratic Party members struggle to pick the next Prime Minister of Japan, there is a vote that will not be counted but matters a lot – who does Washington want to be Japan’s next leader?

The most obvious answer to that question is that Washington doesn’t care. At the senior levels of government and policymakers, “they could care less,” a former senior government official who remains deeply engaged with Japan told Toyo Keizai. “At the expert level, there are preferences. But no one in Washington is talking about it all.”

One reason for this lack of interest is also obvious – Americans are deeply engaged with their own, highly contested election. But the unique nature of the Japanese party election makes it confusing, not least because of the very large field of candidates. And ultimately, Americans assume, perhaps wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to change Japan’s foreign and domestic policy.

Still, for American policymakers and experts, it matters who emerges as Japan’s next leader. What is most important for the United States is “who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Japanese public, that delivers an economic agenda that is sustainable, that allows Japan to keep up its defense expenditures and encourages the Japanese economy to be a key hub in global supply chains,” says Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the premier Japan experts in Washington.

“Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe [Shinzo] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance,” says Amb Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.

Along with that, Americans are looking for “somebody who can work with the ROK (South Korea), and somebody who has strong domestic support, who can bring the LDP back together.”

That said, Donovan and others I spoke to offer a “huge caveat” – what might happen if leadership changes in the U.S.

If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she “will be looking for the strongest possible Japanese Prime Minister,” says the former senior official, who wished to remain anonymous. “Whereas Trump will be looking for which Prime Minister he can manipulate.”

Abe was able to “both impress the U.S. President and also stand up for Japan. It is really important that whoever meets with Trump is able to exude self-confidence as a global leader.”

Within that broad framework, Japan offers its own views on who might best fit those requirements.

How Washington sees the candidates

Leaving aside the question of the ability to project a reformist image that can rally voters back to the scandal-tarnished conservative ruling party, American policymakers tend to favor the most experienced figures in the LDP, particularly those who have long interacted with Washington.

“Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi [Yoshimasa],” said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read “Observing Japan” newsletter.

“Obviously, he has lots of friends here. He worked on the Hill (Congress). He is the continuity candidate. If you like what the Kishida government has been doing, then Hayashi is your guy.”

Washington knows the other candidates well: former Foreign Minister and current LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu, the current Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko, and former Foreign and Defense Minister Kono Taro. The former senior government official offered this frank, off-the-record assessment of the three, based in part on personal contact.

Motegi’s experience with Washington comes mainly in the trade area, as the negotiator of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and dealing with the Trump administration.

“He is smart, effective, a little bit aggressive – not a typical Japanese, but Americans can deal with that,” says the former official. “He is abrasive, but that doesn’t matter in international affairs.”

As for Kamikawa, “she is the opposite. It's so nice, vanilla-flavored. Washington would think she is chosen because of her gender and being fluent in English.”

Kono is also a potential Prime Minister with long experience in Washington, someone fluent in English, “spends a lot of time with Americans and knows the U.S. reasonably well,” the former official says.

But there are concerns about Kono, particularly in the Pentagon but also the State Department, mainly arising out of his time as Defense Minister and the abrupt cancellation of the Aegis Onshore missile defense program, which shocked Washington. “Kono thinks Americans like him, but that is not true.”

As things stand now, however, none of the ‘experienced’ candidates seem likely to make the final two. That leaves a set of candidates who are not at the top of American lists—former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru, former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, Koizumi Shinjiro, and current Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae.

None of these possible leaders is considered a serious problem for alliance relations—except for rightwing stalwart Takaichi, who has positioned herself as the ideological heir to Abe’s more nationalist agenda.

“Takaichi would make everyone nervous,” says Harris. Her provocative stance on wartime history issues, including plans to make official visits to the Yasukuni shrine to Japan’s war dead, “would upset the apple cart on trilateral ties with the Koreans.” Those worries extend to Koizumi and Kobayashi, who might also visit Yasukuni and sour relations with Korea.

Takaichi appeals to more hawkish elements in Washington, particularly among Trump backers, who see her as more willing to militarily confront China. “She is going to want the same things that some people in Washington want, and they will find a way to work with her,” says Harris.

That view does not extend to other experienced Japan hands in Washington. “It is hard to be too hawkish in Washington these days, but she might be too hawkish for the Washington crowd, at least among Japan hands,” predicted the former senior official.

Ishiba is perhaps the most intriguing and potentially difficult leader for Japan among Americans. Although he garners considerable attention in Japan, he is not that well known in the U.S. He has some support in the Pentagon from his experience as Defense Minister and his interest in weapons development. But he has a reputation as a Japanese Gaullist, someone willing to forge a more independent path for Japan.

“Ishiba is sincere,” comments Harris. “He says what he thinks, and he comes from this tradition that is not going to do what the U.S. wants if it is not in Japan’s interests.”

Harris compares him to Kono, noting that both men have been critical of the protectionist decision to bar Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel. Both men represent “a Japan that can say no, maybe politely, but still say no.”

Ishiba reflects more openly a widely held worry in Japan about U.S. reliability, particularly under a second Trump administration. “He and Trump together talking about burden sharing would be an interesting conversation,” says the former senior official. “He will give as good as he gets.”

The other candidate coming out of the former Abe faction, Kobayashi, is garnering more interest in Washington where some think he could emerge as the second-place candidate. Compared to Takaichi, he is viewed more favorably.

Kobayashi is “very bright, a good communicator, with U.S. experience,” says the former official.

“He is young, interesting, probably someone the U.S. could work with, but who is really going to make decisions if he is Prime Minister.” His interest in economic security is much appreciated by Washington policymakers.

The Koizumi question

That brings us to the last viable option and the current front-runner in opinion polls – Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of the former Prime Minister. He is clearly popular and offers the best chance to restore the damaged image of the LDP.

He has had little to say on foreign policy, focusing almost entirely on internal issues of political reform and encouraging entrepreneurial-led growth.

Koizumi is well-known in American policy circles. His graduate education at Columbia University was followed by an invaluable internship at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, working closely with veteran Japan alliance manager Michael Green. But there are questions about both his lack of experience and his policy views.

“He doesn’t get deep on policy very often,” the former official told Toyo Keizai. “People here would think they have chosen someone attractive to voters, but let’s see if he can handle the job.”

Nonetheless, in a second-round contest between Koizumi and either Ishiba or Takaichi, the Washington experts would tend to favor the young politician.

They assume he would have the backing of the LDP’s heavyweight kingmakers like Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide and would represent a unified party.

For American Japan hands, the bottom line is to have a leader that can continue to project a more assertive role in global affairs.

“If you have a leader that is not strong, that could mean Japan is not going to be as proactive as it has been in the past,” says Brookings’ Solis, author of an important new book on Japan’s leadership role.

Japan has become a key voice in opposition to the deepening of economic nationalism that is “flourishing in the U.S.” and the growth of xenophobic populism. The possibility of a return to isolationism under Trump underlines the importance of Japanese leadership, she says.

None of the possible candidates for LDP leadership would be as disruptive as the experience with the brief period of Democratic Party of Japan rule.

“It is more a question of what kind of Prime Minister is more adept at taking the reins of government in Japan, of providing good economic management assuring that the LDP can get through its agenda.

“If you see a weakening of that control power that we got used to, that brought a more decisive Japan, that would be a challenge.”

The Fruit of the April By-elections

 Not Good News for Kishida

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
May 19, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is now reaping the bitter fruit of the LDP’s defeats in the three recent by-elections. The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) coalition partner, Komeito, has refused to co-sponsor amendments to the Political Funds Control Act (PFCA). Kishida had announced that the amendments would be approved by the end of current Diet session. Some LDP leaders are skeptical of Kishida’s handling of the matter.

Although LDP and Komeito reached a rough agreement several weeks ago over revisions to the PFCA, they did not agree on two points: lowering the threshold for disclosing the identities of purchasers of fundraising party tickets and disclosing details about “policy activity funds.”

The LDP has proposed that the threshold for the disclosure of identities be 100,000 yen, but Komeito has insisted on 50,000 yen. The LDP also has proposed only modest changes to rules governing policy activity funds: parties would have to report only the sum of expenditures for each program, such as party events, elections, public relations, and research. This disclosure would be triggered only when a party transfers more than 500,000 yen to a lawmaker. Komeito would not agree to such minor reforms. 

Is the difference between 100,000 yen and 50,000 yen so large? Not really – but the difference can be crucial for the LDP and some lawmakers who have not found their footing in the coming election. The LDP would prefer to support vulnerable lawmakers than to support Kishida.

Komeito sees only a downside to supporting the LDP proposals. In the by-election in Shimane 1 district, Komeito supported an LDP candidate who lost by a wide margin to the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) candidate. The lesson that Komeito took was that a coalition with the LDP would work against them in future elections. Komeito might also have realized that any compromise on revisions to the PFCA would send a wrong message to the voters.

Kishida has been promising to restore public confidence in politics by restructuring the system of political fundraising and expenditures, including the addition to the PFCA of stricter rules on political funds. But when he approved the LDP’s draft of reforms, he did not take Komeito’s frustration into account. “It became an effective draft not to repeat the same scandal, and I will make it for restoring confidence for politics,” said Kishida as the LDP unilaterally submitted the draft to the Diet.

Komeito did not submit its own draft to avoid jeopardizing its relationship with the LDP. It is still possible that the LDP and Komeito will reach a deal as negotiations in the Diet continue. The CDP submitted its own draft co-sponsored with the Democratic Party for the People. The CDP draft includes complete abolition of the policy activity fund.

The polls in May showed the fundamental unpopularity of the Kishida administration. The approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet was 24%, two points down from April in the poll of Asahi Shimbun. The Yomiuri poll showed a 26% approval rating, up one point from April. In the poll of Mainichi Shimbun, the CDP overtook the LDP with 20% favoring the CDP and 17% the LDP. Kishida’s weak leadership in the negotiations over PFCA has solidified the unpopularity of his administration.

Kishida now is isolated not only from the LDP’s coalition partner but also from members of his own party. Former Minister for Digital Affairs, Takuya Hirai, has questioned Kishida’s leadership. “The LDP dug its own grave making the issue complicated by dissolving factions or imposing penalties on the lawmakers,” said Hirai. Kishida made the decisions on factions and penalties.

One of the lawmakers in the Abe faction who was penalized for his involvement in the slush fund scandal, Hakubun Shimomura, demanded that Kishida conduct another interview of a former prime minister, Yoshiro Mori, in order to reassess Mori’s role. Kishida had told the Diet that he had confirmed that Mori had no involvement. However, in a magazine article, Mori said that Kishida had not asked him about it.  Shimomura asked for a further investigation of Mori, citing Kishida’s responsibility as the president of LDP.

Kishida seems to be losing grip in the LDP. Kishida punished LDP lawmakers who were involved in the slush fund scandal. The former Chair of the LDP Policy Research Council, Koichi Hagiuda, was suspended from any leadership position for a year. However, Hagiuda was allowed to retain his position as president of the LDP Tokyo branch where he is expected to manage the campaign leading to the gubernatorial election in July. Although the LDP generally distinguishes local leaders from national leaders, Hagiuda’s position in Tokyo, notwithstanding his suspension at the national level, reflects something of a double standard.

Gaffes by LDP leaders have compounded the trouble facing the Kishida administration. The chairperson of the LDP Political Reform Council, Keisuke Suzuki, said that political reform was partly a political maneuver to weaken the LDP. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Yoko Kamikawa, was forced to retract her remarks in the Shizuoka gubernatorial campaign. Meeting with women voters, Kamikawa asked rhetorically, “What is a woman who would not give birth to” the candidate. Media reports suggested that Kamikawa regarded woman as the sex that gives birth but not one that has a choice in the matter.

Many are wondering who would replace Kishida. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary, Katsunobu Kato, indicated the possibility of his running for LDP president, if he were asked to do so. Shigeru Ishiba, who has received the highest polling numbers as a potential replacement, was reportedly asked to run, in a meeting with former Premier Junichiro Koizumi and his colleagues. Kishida’s own prospects for re-election this fall continue to dim.

Who Spends Time with Abe?

Who are the frequent visitors to the Prime Minister's Office

By 北川開, Nikkei Shimbun Reporter

Originally published in Japanese in Nikkei Shimbun (1/29/2017)
[面会多い相手は?安倍首相の４年間、データで解剖  ]
Provisional translation by APP interns for scholarly exchange.

How does Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spend the day as the head of the government? A look at the prime minister’s tightly scheduled meetings throughout the day will give us a picture of where the administration’s priorities lie, as well as Abe’s relationship with people surrounding him. Using data accumulated for the Nikkei Shimbun’s column “Prime Minister’s Office [Shusho Kantei]” that appears daily in the paper’s Politics section, we have done an analysis of Prime Minister Abe’s four years since his return to the premiership.

“Abe’s most frequent visitor” in the past four years has been the cabinet’s top intelligence official, Director of Cabinet Intelligence Shigeru Kitamura. Kitamura reports to Abe on confidential matters ranging from diplomacy and security to elections that the cabinet intelligence and research office compiles. Kitamura is often seen visiting Abe multiple times a day. Occasionally, he carries necessary information to the PM at his vacation home in Yamanashi Prefecture. Kitamura had worked under the first Abe administration as an executive secretary to the prime minister and supported Abe through that challenging period.

At the Center is “2A+S”

A reporter, who is assigned to cover the prime minister’s daily activities, waits at the door to the Prime Minister’s Office [Kantei] and ask everyone who goes through the door whether he/she met with Abe. Kitamura always tells the reporter “yes” but nothing else.

The second most frequent visitor has been the former vice-minister for foreign affairs Akitaka Saiki. Abe has known Saiki well ever since he served as an English-language interpreter for Abe’s father Shintaro Abe when the senior Abe was foreign minister. Saiki, the foreign ministry’s top administrative official, frequently visited the Kantei to keep Abe abreast of events and receive instructions. In this way, the Abe administration emphasizes Abe’s direct control of the foreign ministry. Abe’s weight in negotiations with foreign counterparts has been increasing, and Japanese diplomats, more than ever, cannot take actions without Abe’s instructions.

The third was Secretary General of the National Security Secretariat Shotaro Yachi. He served under the first Abe administration as a foreign vice-minister and is described as Abe’s brain in diplomacy. In the U.S., Russian, and Chinese governments the organization that reports direct to the head of the state wields influence. One example is the U.S. National Security Council. Yachi has acted as the counterpart to these organizations, and has arranged Abe’s summit diplomacy from behind the scenes.

Meetings between Abe, Kitamura, Yachi, and senior officials from the foreign and defense ministries are held regularly, generally twice a month. The highest-ranking uniformed officer of the SDF, Joint Chief of Staff Katsutoshi Kawano has also been a member of that group. The meetings provide a framework for discussing matters significant to the country’s security policy.

Among politicians, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has been the fourth most frequent visitor, followed by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso. Suga is often in attendance when Abe meets with important visitors. Aso comes with senior officials from the finance ministry for reporting, then usually stays behind to talk with the prime minister alone. While the ministry officials are there, the meeting revolves around the government’s financial policy. During their private conversation, Abe and Aso likely discuss and exchange opinions about political decision making.

Abe, Aso, Suga and the former Minister of Economic Revitalization, Economic and Fiscal Policy Akira Amari, the so-called 3A+S, were the core of the Abe administration. Since Amari resigned the ministerial post in 2016 as a result of a political-fund scandal, the “2A+S” has been in charge of running the administration.

The sixth most frequent visitor, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko (former deputy chief cabinet secretary, Upper House) and the eighth, Minister in Charge of Empowerment of All Citizens Katsunobu Kato (former deputy chief cabinet secretary, Lower House) had been regulars at the prime minister’s office during their terms as deputy CCS. On mornings of the day Abe is scheduled to go to the Diet, both houses’ deputy CCSs participate, without fail, in a Diet preparation session for the prime minister.

Unknowable Inner Meetings inside Kantei

News reporters in charge of the prime minister must remain near the entrance to the Kantei when talking to people and are not allowed to go inside rooms. Therefore, if a person who works inside the Kantei meets and talks with the prime minister, that meeting may not appear in the “Prime Minister’s Office.” According to a high-ranking government official, a meeting is held every day between the prime minister, the chief cabinet secretary, deputy chief cabinet secretary, and executive secretary to the prime minister in charge of policies. By meeting every day, the core members of the administration at the Kantei confirm basic policy directions and avoid inconsistent remarks. Even without a particular agenda, just meeting with each other regularly gives a sense of unity.

Abe’s office is on the same floor as Suga’s, increasing the chances they meet much more often than what is reported.

Among agencies, senior officials from the ministry of foreign affairs, the ministry of finance, the ministry of defense, the ministry of economy, trade and industry, and the cabinet office have been the ones frequenting the Kantei. As for annual visits by officials above the level of director-general of each ministry, the number of visits by senior officials of the foreign and defense ministries greatly increased in 2016 compared with the previous three years.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had the highest number by far of visits to the prime minister’s office, due to the many significant diplomatic exchanges that occurred in 2016, including the Ise-Shima G7 Summit in May and the Japan-Russia summit meetings.

If we only look at the Administration’s fourth year, the defense ministry’s Director General for Defense Policy Satoshi Maeda was the fifth most frequent visitor. It reflects the weight the administration placed on managing the threats posed by an escalation of North Korean nuclear missile development and Chinese maritime advancement in the South and the East China Seas.

Meetings held with finance ministry officials have been slightly fewer than in past administrations, according to a source close to the prime minister. Although METI officials did not come to the Kantei as much, Takaya Imai, an executive secretary to the prime minister (policy) and a former METI bureaucrat, has likely been acting as a bridge between Abe and the ministry and helped Abe exert his influence. Meanwhile, the cabinet office is taking the initiative in the policy of the dynamic engagement of all citizens and work-style reform to increase its leadership presence.

Discuss Policy Over Noodles

Lunch and dinner meetings are good for developing friendly relationships. Besides the Kantei visitors, the Nikkei Shimbun looked into the prime minister’s favorite restaurants and dinner partners.

The most frequently used restaurant has been “ORIGAMI”, a restaurant in the Capitol Hotel Tokyu. So far during the second Abe administration, the prime minister has dined at the restaurant a total of 40 times. A majority of his dining partners have been people close to Abe such as executive secretaries and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga. It seems he uses ORIGAMI when he wants to have a casual dinner meeting.

The prime minister’s favorite choice from the menu is pork rib ramen noodles, priced at 2,730 yen including tax. Last December, former Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, currently a legal and policy advisor to the Nippon Ishin no Kai, joined Abe for a steak lunch. The hotel has many exits for vehicles, making it easy for a guest to leave without being seen by the press.

Traditional Japanese-style restaurants [ryotei] have generally been chosen for meetings with business leaders. One of the venues is Arisugawa Shimizu, a Japanese restaurant in Minamiazabu, where members of Sakurakai, a high-powered business group, frequently gather. Yoshiyuki Kasai, the chairman emeritus of JR Tokai, and Shigetaka Furumori, the chairman and CEO of Fujifilm Holdings, belong to Sakurakai. The group has been a loyal supporter of Abe since before his first premiership.

Fukudaya, a Japanese restaurant in Kioicho, is where the prime minister regularly meets with Takashi Imai and Hiroshi Okuda, the chairmen emeritus of Keidanren.

When meeting with people from the entertainment industry, the prime minister often chooses more fashionable venues. He and actor Masahiko Tsugawa are friends who celebrate each other’s birthdays. They eat together with other people from the industry at Italian restaurants and the like. Abe is said to enjoy hearing stories from a community with which he has less frequent contact.

Dinner with Tsugawa often can last for hours. On Jan. 5, they talked for as long as three hours and 25 minutes. The prime minister’s dinner meetings generally end within a couple of hours. But when Abe is with close friends and family, the gathering tends to last much longer.

Weekend’s Activities

Before his return to the premiership, Abe has determined to accomplish three things every month--conduct an overseas visit, visit affected areas of the Great East Japan Earthquake and play golf.

Keeping the pace of almost once a month, Abe has conducted totally 50 times overseas visits under the banner of “diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the world map”. As many as 66 countries and regions has been visited. He takes full advantage of the Golden week and summer during the Diet recess.

Weekends are often used for visits to the affected areas of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Abe has visited 31 times in total so far, once in every 48 days after his return to premiership. If the visits to affected areas of Kumamoto Earthquake and typhoons are included, the number adds up to 42 times in total, which means he has visited once in every 36 days. He has mostly achieved his own goal to visit the disaster affected areas “once in a month”.

Concerning his hobby golf, Abe plays it several days in a row during vacations and so far has played 56 times. Though his score of Golf has not been revealed as a state secret, a person who played with him said it was “91”. Chairman of Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), Sadayuki Sakakibara, who often plays with Abe, is said to be better at golf than him. The prime minister has two favorite golf courses, one located in Chiba prefecture and the other in Kanagawa prefecture, and three favorite courses in Yamanashi prefecture, where Abe has his villa.

Abe goes to have hair cut almost once in a month. The prime minister’s favorite beauty salon is “HAIR GUEST” (Tokyo, Shibuya). Originally, “Barber Shop MURAGI” was his favorite, but it is said that he started to commute to “HAIR GUEST” thanks to his wife Akie’s recommendation. Though he had a stylist part his hair on the side at “Barber Shop MURAGI”, he asks a stylist at “HAIR GUEST” to make fluffy hair style.

Spending Year-end and New Year’s holidays at Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi with his relatives is a standard routine every year. Abe is a regular customer of “Nagomi Spa and Fitness”, and has been there 67 times since his second term. Therefore it is understood that he does his health management there once in 22 days.

Abe never fails to ensure health check. He gets a full medical check in Spring and Autumn every year, and sees a dentist almost once in a month. Mostly he goes to the dentist in the first Congressman Hall of the House of Representatives during the intervals between weekday official duties.

Abe cherishes his friendship with old friends. He frequently participates in the gathering of Keisei Gakuen, which he commuted to from elementary school to university. He frequently meets with friends he made during his study in the U.S. after graduation from university. He tends to relax during mealtime with his family and friends, and sometimes greets reporters, who are assigned to cover the prime minister’s daily activities, by saying “Otsukaresama”.

Beyond the Right to Know

Regarding media coverage of the prime minister’s daily activities such as meeting opponents, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has pointed out “it’s beyond the public’s right to know” when she was a Member of the House of Representatives. The U.S. media don’t seem to have detailed schedules of the President Trump. Also, President Xi Jinping is doing what or where right now is confidential information in China. Reporting the prime minister’s movement with high transparency is significant for monitoring power. We would like to continue to keep track of the prime minister.

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule July 13- July 19, 2015

Monday, July 13, 2015 

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya (no morning visitors)
09:10 Depart private residence
09:25 Arrive at office
10:00 Meet with Chinese Ambassador to Japan, Cheng Yonghua and Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
10:30 End meeting with Mr. Cheng and Mr. Akitaka
11:08 Depart office
11:10 Arrive at Lower House 1st Diet Members’ Meeting Hall, receive dental treatment at dentist’s office
11:28 Depart Lower House
11:30 Arrive at office
11:39 Meet with President of Lions Club International Association, Yamada Mihiro and former Minister of Transport, Fujii Takao

PM
00:03 End meeting with Mr. Yamada and Mr. Fujii
00:48 Depart office
00:55 Arrive at Hotel Okura in Toranomon, Tokyo. Attend and deliver address at 30th National Meeting of the Japan Private Kindergarten PTA Association in banquet hall Heian
01:23 Depart hotel
01:26 Arrive at office
03:05 Meet with Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary, Takamizawa Nobushige
03:29 End meeting with Mr. Takamizawa
03:30 Meet with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi

04:11 End meeting with Mr. Eto
04:57 Depart office
04:58 Arrive at National Diet
05:00 Head towards LDP’s President’s Office
05:01 LDP’s Officers Meeting
05:14 Meeting ends
05:15 Meet with LDP members: Vice-President, Komura Masahiko, Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu and Executive Acting Secretary-General, Hosoda Hiroyuki and Chairman of LDP Election Strategy, Motegi Toshimitsu.
05:43 Depart room
05:45 Depart National Diet
05:46 Arrive at office
06:07 Depart office
07:21 Arrive at Federation of Economic Organizations in Otemachi, Tokyo. Attend, deliver address and take commemorative photos at The Sixth Asian Business Summit Reception  
07:44 Depart reception
07:57 Arrive at Japanese restaurant, ‘Kouetsu’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with former Lower House Speaker, Ibuki Bunmei. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu also attend
08:40 Depart from restaurant
08:45 Arrive at LDP headquarters, appear on LDP internet program Café Sta
09:22 Depart headquarters
09:41 Arrive at private residence

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

AM
07:51 Depart from private residence
08:02 Arrive at office
08:13 The eighth meeting of the Headquarters for Promoting Decentralization Reform  

08:18 Meeting ends
08:23 Cabinet meeting starts
08:35 Cabinet meeting ends
08:36 Meet with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro
09:20 End meeting with Mr. Aso
09:52 Meet Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Suryo Bambang Sulisto and Indonesian Ambassador to Japan, Yusron Ihza Mahendra
10:24 End meeting with Mr. Suryo and Yusron
10:53 Meet with Secretary-General of Headquarters for Abduction Issue, Ishikawa Shoichiro
11:20 End meeting with Mr. Ishikawa
11:21 Meet with Director of National Security Council, Yachi Shotaro and Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
11:48 End meeting with Mr. Yachi and Mr. Saiki

PM
02:35 Director of National Security Council, Mr. Yachi, Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Mr. Kitamura, Head of LDP Yamanashi Chapter, Shimizu Takenori and Director of Cabinet Satellite Intelligence, Shimohira Koji enters
02:48 Mr. Yachi and Mr. Shimohira leave
03:09 Mr. Kimura leaves
03:19 Meet with Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka
03:48 End meeting with Mr. Saiki
04:20 Meet with Special Advisor to President of LDP, Hagiuda Koichi
04:46 End meeting with Mr. Hagiuda
05:00 Meet with Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Amari Akira and Cabinet Office members: Vice-Minister, Matsuyama Kenji, Director-Generals for Policies on Cohesive Society, Maekawa Mamoru, Habuka Shigeki and Tawa Hiroshi
05:26 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama, Mr. Maekawa, Mr. Habuka and Mr. Tawa
05:32 Courtesy Call from the Consortium for the Promotion of the Modern Industrial Heritage in Kyushu and Yamaguchi to Inscription on the World Heritage
05:44 Courtesy call ends
05:45 Meet with Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council, Inada Tomomi
06:18 End meeting with Ms. Inada Tomomi
06:24 Depart office
06:47 Arrive at private residence

Wednesday, July 15, 2015
AM
07:30 Depart private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo
07:41 Arrive at office
07:45 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kato Katsunobu
08:11 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:53 Depart office
08:54 Arrive at National Diet
08:56 Head towards Lower House Committee Room No. 1
09:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community

PM
00:10 Leave seat during proceedings
00:12 Depart National Diet
00:13 Arrive at office
00:18 Meet with Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga Yoshihide
00:26 End meeting with Mr. Suga
06:37 Interview to all media: when asked ‘Has the Security bills been approved by the Lower House Members of the Diet?’ Mr. Abe answers, ‘I would like to proceed in explaining this to our citizens including the discussion in the National Diet in an easy-to-understand manner.’
06:38 Depart office
06:44 Arrive at soba restaurant, ’Sampei’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with Yomiuri Newspaper group board member and Top Advisor, Oikawa Shouichi, and an artist of Western painting, Kinutani Kouji
08:36 Depart restaurant
08:56 Arrive at private residence

Thursday, July 16, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya ( no morning visitors)
09:28 Depart private residence
09:47 Arrive at office
10:40 Courtesy Call from the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan
10:53 Courtesy call ends

10:57 Meet with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Aso Taro, Ministry of Finance members, Vice-Minister, Tanaka Kazuho, Deputy Vice-Minister, Fukuda Junichi and Director-General of Tax Bureau, Sato Shinichi
11:34 Mr. Tanaka, Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Sato leave
11:41 Mr. Aso leaves
11:45 Filming video message for industrial group 

11:51 Finish filming

PM
00:47 Depart office
00:49 Arrive at National Diet
00:50 Head towards Lower House Waiting Room No. 14
00:51 Meeting of LDP Diet Members

00:57 Meeting ends

00:58 Depart room
00:59 Head towards Lower House Plenary Meeting Hall
01:02 Lower House Plenary Session opens
02:06 Meeting adjourns
02:07 Depart the hall
02:09 Depart National Diet
02:11 Arrive at office
02:12 Interview open to all media: when asked ‘the security bills that have been approved by the lower house of the Diet,’ Mr Abe answers, ‘for our national citizens to have a greater understanding, our whole party will be mobilized and will continue to work hard’.
02:14 Interview ends
02:30 Meeting with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi
03:41 End meeting with Mr. Eto
03:45 Meet with Administrative Vice-Minister of Defense, Mr. Nishi Masanori and Ministry of Defense, Director-General of Bureau of Local Cooperation, Nakajima Akihiko
03:56 End meeting with Mr. Nishi and Mr. Nakajima
04:19 Meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
05:13 Meeting ends

05:14 Meet with Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Takaichi Sanae
05:27 End meeting with Mr. Takaichi
06:46 Depart office
06:55 Arrive at Japanese restaurant, ‘Tsuyama’ in Akasaka, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with former Prime Minister, Mori Yoshiro, LDP’s Executive Acting Secretary-General, Hosoda Hiroyuki and Secretary-General for LDP in Upper House, Date Chuichi.
08:41 Depart restaurant
09:13 Arrive at private residence

Friday, July 17, 2015

AM

08:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
08:42 Depart private residence
08:56 Arrive at office
09:03 Cabinet meeting starts
09:08 Cabinet meeting ends
09:14 The meeting of Global Warming Prevention Headquarters

09:22 Meeting ends
09:25 Speak with Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation, Mr. Ohta Akihiro
09:35 End speaking with Mr. Ohta
09:36 Meet with Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Amari Akira, Cabinet members, Vice-Minister, Matsuyama Kenji and Director-Generals for Policies on Cohesive Society, Habuka Shigeki and Tawa Hiroshi
09:56 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama and Mr. Tawa
10:02 Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka enters
10:52 MOFA’s Director-General of Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau, Uemura Tsukasa, Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau, Akiba Takeo and Director-General of Intelligence and Analysis Service Oka Hiroshi join
11:18 Mr. Uemura and Mr. Oka leave
11:30 Mr. Saiki and Mr. Akiba leave

PM
00:01 Meet with LDP Secretary-General, Tanigaki Sadakazu
00:40 End meeting with Mr. Tanigaki
01:55 Formal Prime Minister, Mori Yoshiro enters
02:00 Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Saiki Akitaka, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Shimomura Hakubun and Minister in charge of Tokyo Olympic and Paralympics, Endo Toshiaki join
03:37 All members leave
03:38 Interview open to all media: when asked ‘What kind of decision has been reached for the new National Stadium plans?’ Mr. Abe answers, “I have decided that we will cancel the current plan for the New National Stadium that is to be the venue for the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and create a new plan from scratch.”
03:42 Interview ends
04:08 Meet with Director of Cabinet Intelligence, Kitamura Shigeru
04:35 End meeting with Mr. Kitamura
05:00 Speak with MOFA’s Director-General of Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Ihara Junichi and Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau, Akiba Takeo
05:10 End speaking with Mr. Ihara and Mr. Akiba
05:30 Reception and commemorative photo with Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel. Japan-Luxembourg Summit Meeting and Other Events
05.31Pay courtesy to honor guards

05:37 Honor guards ceremony ends
05:39 Summit conference with Prime Minister Bettel
06:23 Conference ends
06:28 Joint press release
06:40 Press release ends
06:41 Depart office
06:42 Arrive at official residence. Dinner meeting hosted by Prime Minister Abe
07:55 To see off Prime Minister Bettel 

07:56 See-off ends
08:17 Meet with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Eto Seiichi
10:01 End meeting with Mr. Eto

Saturday, July 18, 2015

AM
08:00 At official residence (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
02:13 Depart official residence
02:33 Arrive at wedding venue ‘Shimomegurogajoen’ in Shimomeguro, Tokyo. Attend LDP’s Upper House member, Ejima Kiyoshi’s eldest daughter’s wedding reception banquet
05:23 Depart wedding ceremony
05:54 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

Sunday, July 19, 2015

AM
10:00 At private residence (no morning visitors)
Stay at private residence throughout the morning

PM
04:13 Depart private residence
04:22 Arrive at ‘Hair Guest’ hairdressers in Shibuya, Tokyo, receive haircut
05:57 Depart from hairdressers
06:12 Arrive at private residence

Provisional translation by Kelly Ing

Mr. Abe and His "100 Million"

The minister in charge Katsunobu Kato, 

appointed to lead the “100 million” effort

Why is Japan's prime minister using wartime propaganda buzzwords to promote his social and economic programs?

And why should the world care?

by Michael Cucek, a Tokyo-based consultant to the financial and diplomatic communities and author of the Shisaku blog on Japanese politics and society and an APP member

First published in Number 1 Shimbun, Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Imagine German Chancellor Angela Merkel announcing a new set of national economics, labor and natality initiatives that proudly promise to preserve 80 percent of the current population without immigration, increase the size of the economy by a third in five years and turn back the clock on sex, work and marriage to the 1970s. Imagine that the program is called the “Arbeitszeit macht Freizeit” (“Work Time Makes Free Time”) Program, that she is appointing a special cabinet minister with that title and is insisting that there is no resemblance between the program’s name and the notorious “Arbeit Macht Frei” slogan hanging over the gates at Auschwitz.

Then imagine that Angela Merkel, rather than being a former East German citizen from a Protestant church family with no ties to the Nazi era (which she is), instead is the scion of a leading Third Reich family – Albert Speer’s eldest granddaughter, perhaps – and a well-known apologist for the excesses of the Nazi state.

The world would likely have a nervous breakdown.

Yet the world’s financial and political commentators merely shrugged when on Sept. 24 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled his “Ichi oku so katsuyaku” (100 Million Making Eye Opening Efforts As One” initiative – a.k.a. The New Three Arrows of Abenomics.) Two weeks later, when he introduced his new Cabinet, it included Katsunobu Kato in a newly created position in charge of driving the program.

What is stunning is the decision to use the historically fraught number 100 million (ichi oku) as his target population level.

One cannot fault the overall goals of the New Three Arrows. After all, Japan’s current population level of 127 million is unsustainable when the number of births per woman is at 1.42 and immigration is a negligible force. Indeed, the population is already dropping, last year by 268,000. If no special measures are taken, the population will fall below 100 million somewhere around the year 2050 and decline to around 80 million by the millennium. Japan’s relative and absolute economic power will decline in step, leaving the country a still populous but minor player at the end of the century.

That the ambitious Mr. Abe wants more for his country than a slide into sleepy irrelevance is not surprising. What is stunning is the decision by Abe, the grandson of the wartime government’s munitions minister and a known admirer of Imperial Japan, to use the historically fraught number 100 million (ichi oku) as his target population level.

ANYONE WITH A PASSING knowledge of pre-1945 propaganda can rattle off a string of ichi oku phrases, none of which invokes happy memories. There is the commandment for ideological unanimity – Ichi oku isshin ("100 Million Persons: One Mind”) – or the encouragement to press forward with the war effort – Susume ichi oku hi no tama da (“Forward The 100 Million Balls of Flame!”). There is the call for to be prepared for extermination of every single Japanese citizen in the final defense of the country: Ichi oku gyokusai (“100 Million Crushed Jewels”).

In his speech announcing Japan’s surrender, Emperor Hirohito thanked the ichi oku shusho (“the 100 million commoners”) for their efforts, vain as those efforts turned out to be. And most disturbingly, there is the infamous call of Prince Higashikuni, the interim prime minister after the surrender, for an Ichi oku so zange (“100 Million Reflecting Upon Their Responsibility as One”) – as if the Japanese people were collectively responsible for the country’s descent into war rather than the nation’s leaders – where Higashikuni’s phrase is the same ichi oku that appears in Shinzo Abe’s new program.

Ever since announcing the new program and ministerial post, Abe has been denying any link between his 100 million population goal and the wartime propaganda use of that number as a shorthand for “all Japanese.” Mr. Abe’s protestations, however are undercut by the peculiar and inaccurate official government English translation of ichi oku so katsuyaku as “Promoting Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens.” If there is nothing wrong with saying “100 Million As One” in Japanese, why does the English translation not use that phrase as well?

Abe also maintains open ties to the revisionist and denialist Nippon Kaigi, and addressed that organization’s mass meeting via video message

If the use of the 100 million figure is dog whistle politics – a signal sent out to those whose political ears are set to hear a specific pitch – it is not as if Abe’s continuing allegiance to Japan’s revisionist right is a secret. While he has suspended his annual pilgrimages to Yasukuni Shrine in order to secure summit meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Park Geun-hye, he still sends cash donations and presents to the shrine during its spring and autumn festivals and on Aug. 15, the anniversary of Japan’s acceptance of defeat in World War II.

Abe also maintains open ties to the revisionist and denialist Nippon Kaigi (Japan Conference), and addressed that organization’s “Let’s Revise the Constitution – the Great Gathering of the 10,000” mass meeting at the Nippon Budokan via video message on Nov. 10. He also tucks into his schedule meetings or visits, such as pilgrimages to Ise Shrine or paying respects at the grave of anti-Tokugawa activist Shoin Yoshida [his home was mysteriously included among Japan's UNESCO World Industrial Heritage sites approved this past July], that appear benign but which revisionists can read as quiet assurances that the hard right’s longtime champion still holds their issues and values close to his heart.

IS IT WRONG FOR Abe to pander to the revisionists or blend his economic revival and social inclusion programs with elements of his romantic view of pre-1945 Japan? Not necessarily. A politician has to demonstrate his gratitude to the knot of loyalists who have been with him from the very beginning, granting them some measure of their wishes and taking stances they will applaud. He cannot turn his back on his original supporters, even if he has since supplanted them with richer and more socially acceptable backers – a political reality the great political satirist Molly Ivins summed up in the phrase, “You gotta dance with them what brung you.” [Abe also spent nearly two hours on November 28th at the revanchist Sosei Nippon gathering.]

The revisionists “brought” us Shinzo Abe – at least the first Shinzo Abe premiership of 2006-7. Ignoring them and their issues would represent a risky bet by the prime minister on the economy’s performing above trend or his new friends in big business staying as close to him in the future as they are now.

Many of the changes the Abe Cabinet and the LDP have been molding into legislation are, from an international perspective, socially liberal and market-oriented transformations.

Affixing revisionist labels on ambitious economic and social engineering changes could also represent clever political salesmanship on Abe’s part. Many of the changes the Abe Cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party have been molding into legislation are, from an international perspective, socially liberal and market-oriented transformations. These would be inimical to the party’s core support among economic and social conservatives, who have taken Mr. Abe’s campaign slogan Nippon o torimodosu (“We Will Take Japan Back”) at face value. By applying a gloss of pre-war Imperial Japan on these programs, Abe is ostensibly shielding them from the automatic rejection they would have received were they presented as liberal or neo-liberal reforms.

A noble reading of the intentions of Mr. Abe and his allies would be that they are plastering a disingenuous pre-1945 “100 Million as One” label on their plans for a post-industrial, post-mercantilist 21st-century democracy in order to sell what would otherwise be unsaleable. However, for that reading to be plausible, the reforms themselves would have to be honest and profound – so much so that it was worthwhile for the government to lie about their true nature in its sale pitch.

THIS IS PRECISELY THE point where the generous view of the Abe administration falls apart. The New Three Arrows of Abenomics – a 600 trillion yen economy by 2020, 1.8 births per woman by 2025 and the zeroing out of persons leaving the workforce to care for an elderly relative (currently over 100,000 workers per year and rising) – are unachievable. Economists and business writers have scoffed at the proposal to increase the nominal GDP 22 percent in five years—though a recent proposed revision of the calculation of GDP figures seems to have lowered the bar.

As for 1.8 births per woman, the last time that happened was back in 1984 – and even that figure was a fluke. One has to go back to 1977, when the marriage, development and labor environments were so different as to be those of another country to get a realistic sustained rate of 1.8 births per Japanese woman. As for the third proposal to zero out the number of job leavers due to eldercare – without the mass immigration of healthcare workers the promise is beyond absurd. The very oldest members of the postwar baby boom generation that dwarfs all its predecessors are not even 70 years of age yet. Many of these boomers indeed are already the stressed-to-the-breaking point caregivers of the relatively tiny generation of their parents. When the boomers themselves become the cared-for rather than the care-giving, the loss of only 100,000 workers a year to eldercare will seem a dream by comparison.

What then are we to make of the “100 Million Making Eye Opening Efforts As One” initiatives? Why go to all the trouble of associating them with the pre-war Japanese imperial state when they are not even realizable? And what kind of modern democratic government has a core policy program whose goals are not just difficult but impossible to achieve?

The answers to these questions may be simple ones. Mr. Abe and his government face a national election in 2016 – far enough in the future that the wide-ranging protests against the security bill and the little sense of any opposition that they seemed to engender will very likely have faded from the public’s memory. If the pure fantasy of these initiatives and their unrealistic goals succeed in stupefying the non-aligned voters into a lethargic state, the ruling coalition may conceivably be able to motivate its base and seize control of both Houses of the Diet, setting the stage for revision of the Constitution – Mr. Abe’s well-known, long-cherished goal. ❶