Takaichi's Constitutional Reform

Takaichi Pushes Her Conservative Agenda

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 29, 2026
 
With less than three weeks before the end of the current Diet session, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has accelerated work on her conservative agenda. Opposition parties have signed on to some of her agenda items, but others require additional support to build a majority in the Upper House. In some cases, Takaichi’s maneuverings have frustrated the opposition parties. 
 
Penalty for National Flag Vandalism
Article 92 of Penal Code prohibits damaging the national flag of a foreign country for the purpose of insulting the country. The law is intended to protect diplomatic relations with foreign countries. But Japan does not have any proscription on vandalism to its own national flag. Conservative lawmakers, including Takaichi, are dissatisfied with a situation in which defilement of the national flag of Japan goes unpunished.
 
Conservatives are proud of the national flag of Japan, or Hinomaru, which depicts a rising sun. They believe that paying respect to Hinomaru exemplifies patriotism. In wartime Japan, people were obliged to salute the Hinomaru hoisted along the streets. Although they may not hope to bring back that pre-war culture, the conservatives cannot abide insulting a symbol of Japan.
 
When they formed the leading coalition last October, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) agreed on the terms of legislation to establish the “crime of damaging the national flag” in 2026 ordinary session of the Diet. Although the ordinary session was closed on January 23 when Takaichi dissolved the Lower House for a snap election, a special session was convoked after the election; this session is scheduled to adjourn on July 17.
 
The LDP approved a draft of a bill named the National Flag Vandalism Punishing Act in early June, on which the JIP agreed. Although the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) had been skeptical about the need for the law, it signed on after the LDP struck a provision that would have criminalized the posting of a scene of damage to Hinomaru on a social networking service. The bill was finally submitted to the Diet sponsored by the LDP, JIP, DPP and the ultra-conservative Sanseito. It also gained support of populist Team Miral and is expected to pass both chambers of the Diet.
 
It is highly unclear what interest the bill represents. The law will prohibit any age to Hinomaru “in a way that causes the public to feel uncomfortable or disgusted.” A violation will carry up to two years in custody and a fine of up to two hundred thousand yen. The sponsors of the bill have argued that the law will protect the feelings of people who think Hinomaru is precious and will prevent flag-vandalism in the future. The bill is based on the premise that Hinomaru is precious to everyone. It is unusual for the Diet to make a law with little factual basis for it.
 
The Diet has continued to entertain these strange discussions. Sponsors have cited such instances of supposed defilement of Hinomaru as tearing Hinomaru apart in a train station, stomping on Hinomaru, blotting it with increment, and livestreaming an act of vandalism. But streaming a recorded video of damage to the flag will not be punished. The sponsors have also created exceptions for disposal of an old flag, cutting off a flag that has twisted around ceiling light, and signing messages on Hinomaru for a national sports team.
 
The sponsors of the bill argue that the law will not force the people to pay respect to Hinomaru. However, the law will inevitably be coercive. Meanwhile, freedom of expression will be on the verge of erosion with a concern that not paying respect to Hinomaru might be punished even if the law does not obligate the people to love the Hinomaru.
 
Securing Imperial Family Members
The Speakers and Deputy Speakers of both chambers of the Diet submitted a “unanimous opinion” of the Houses on membership in the Imperial Family to the government of Japan in early June. The Takaichi government is preparing a bill to revise the Imperial House Law, an effort that is supposed to implement the unanimous opinion. It is possible, however, that the government is manipulating the process to favor the conservatives.
 
The unanimous opinion would allow female members to remain in the Imperial Family after marriage and would authorize the Imperial Family to adopt male members who had been in the male line of former Imperial Families. Retaining female members has broad public support. The adoption provision faces hurdles, however: current Imperial House Law unequivocally prohibits adoption and it receives less public approval than retaining female members. But conservative lawmakers firmly support adoption to ensure that the Imperial House is sustained by males in the male line.
 
On Friday, the 26^th, most major newspapers reported with some surprise that the Takaichi government was drafting an amendment to the Imperial House Law that would permit the male offspring of an adopted member of the Imperial Family to succeed to the throne of the Emperor. The draft would not place the adopted male member himself in the line of succession to the throne, but a son or grandson could join the line.
 
This move reflects the confidence of the conservatives on keeping the male line. One LDP conservative lawmaker, Hirofumi Nakasone, definitely remarked that Princess Aiko, the daughter of Emperor Naruhito, cannot become Emperor. “Nobody wants to be married with Emperor Aiko,” Nakasone added. JIP is still not satisfied with the provision of adoption, which is limited to a man 15 years old or older. The conservative bloc is not united on details of revision of Imperial House Law.
 
The “unanimous opinion” did not touch on succession to the throne and limited itself to the size of the imperial family. Centrist Reform Alliance argues that the draft of the Takaichi government does not reflect the unanimous opinion of the Diet. Article 1 of the Constitution of Japan provides that the position of Emperor derives from will of the people, and the Diet represents the will of the people. Without the full support of the Diet, the Takaichi government draft could destabilize the position of the Emperor.
 
Constitutional Amendment on Emergency Terms of Office
The LDP and JIP have sped up consideration in the current session of the Diet of a constitutional amendment that would extend the term of a Diet member in the lower chamber in the event of a national disaster. The Lower House Commission of the Constitution has been discussing this amendment. However, the Upper House has focused instead on election system of the house that would integrate some districts beyond the border of a prefecture. The parties have at least agreed to present such a change for a constitutional referendum.
 
Prime Minister Takaichi declared in the LDP national convention this past April that, by the spring of 2027, she would introduce a constitutional amendment. The Lower House commission has already proposed an emergency clause to extend the term of lawmakers in an emergency and to enable the Cabinet to issue orders with the same legal effect as laws enacted by the Diet. The opposition parties oppose the idea of giving the executive branch what is essentially the power of legislation.
 
The Upper House is not willing to discuss the emergency clause, because the constitution already provides that the Upper House will maintain the functions of the Diet when the Lower House is empty. Most parties can agree on the issue under review in the Upper House election – abolishing electoral districts beyond prefectural border to represent people’s will of every single prefecture.
 
But the integration of electoral districts was made to respect the one-man, one-vote principle that stems from the constitutional principle of equality under the law. In one rural district, a vote had 3.13 times greater value than those in an urban district in the 2025 Upper House election. Two concepts in the constitution, equality in value of one vote and implementation of autonomy, are competing each other

A minimum accomplishment of the parties in the current Diet session will be the revision of the National Referendum Act for constitutional amendments. It includes minor changes in the process of a national referendum. The bill was sponsored by the LDP, JIP, DPP and Sanseito. It passed the Lower House with the support of the Centrist Reform Alliance and Team Mirai. It is also expected to pass the Upper House in current session. Any further progress on wrapping up discussion of the details of a constitutional amendment in this session is unlikely. 

China Strategy Isolates Japan

 Takaichi Goes It Alone at the G7

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 21, 2026
 
At this month’s annual Group of Seven (G7) Summit Meeting in Evian-les-Bains, France, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made it clear that she had a quite different concern on international issues than the other leaders did. The summit is traditionally a forum to reconfirm unity of the group to lead the world. Such was the case this year when the group reviewed progress to end the war in Iran. Takaichi, however, emphasized the vulnerability of industrial supply chains and competition with China’s trade strategy. Her tack gained no enthusiastic supporters among the G7 as an explicit supply chain policy would strain rather than ease international tensions.
 
It was obvious at the outset that the Iran war would dominate the discussions. Just before the leaders’ meeting began, the United States and Iran reached an apparent 60-day ceasefire (although not nearly a permanent solution). The memorandum of understanding (MOU) obligates Iran to use its best efforts to ensure safe passage of commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. (In fact, Iran has now closed the Strait.) To Iran’s benefit, the MOU also includes – again for a 60-day period – termination of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, plans (but no financial commitments) for a $300 billion reconstruction program, waivers of U.S. sanctions crude oil exports from Iran, and the return of frozen assets to Iran.
 
On the nuclear issue, Iran “reaffirmed” that it would not procure or develop nuclear weapons; that is, Iran confirmed an earlier commitment. Iran and the U.S. also committed to develop a mechanism to dispose of Iran’s “stockpiled enriched material,” which could mean on-site down-blending, but the MOU does not rule out other disposition methods such as removal. The MOU allows – for the 60 days it is in effect – Iran to maintain its nuclear program and without any new sanctions from the U.S. The MOU does not mention missiles. By many accounts, the MOU considered a victory for Iran.
 
The G7 countries welcomed the deal as an attempt to normalize international relations and the oil trade. A leaders’ statement stressed that the deal was “secured under the strong leadership of President Trump,” noting efforts by France and the United Kingdom to resume maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The G7 chairman, French President Emmanuel Macron, described the summit as “a moment of unity, of quality discussion, and of genuine cooperation of the leaders.”
 
Upon receiving the news of the U.S.-Iran agreement, Takaichi welcomed it as a major step toward settling the situation in the Middle East. She emphasized the importance of implementing the agreement. But she did not offer any commitment by Japan to the reconstruction of Iran, including mine-sweeping in the strait. “Nothing has been determined for dispatching the Self-Defense Force,” Takaichi stated in a press conference. As readers know, the Constitution of Japan strictly limits sending troops to a battlefield.
 
On the sidelines of the summit, Takaichi had a five-minute conversation with Trump. In his press conference afterward, Trump limited his warmth to Japan by characterizing Takaichi as his “biggest fan.” Otherwise, Trump said, “I’ll be honest, Japan was not willing to get involved during the war.” There was no report that Takaichi affirmed her compliment of Trump in her visit to the White House in March, which was that “Donald is the only person who can bring peace and prosperity across the world.”
 
Instead, Takaichi tried to pursue Japan’s interest by connecting the war in Iran with pressure on China. She put economic security at the center of Japan’s views in the G7 rather than joining with the other members in focusing on ending the war in Iran or post-war reconstruction. Although she proposed building a system of oil reserves for developing countries, Takaichi’s clear goal was to gain support for stockpiling critical minerals and lessening dependence on China. The G7 issued a declaration on supply chains for critical minerals, but it went only as far as to say that the group “will work together with partners to reduce critical dependencies and ensure that attempts or threats to weaponize economic dependencies fail.”
 
China immediately responded to that statement. “It’s leader’s latest G7 remarks on China were particularly obtrusive, exposing that its attempt to rally allies and stir up confrontation wins no support and is bound to fail,” said China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian. Lin said that Takaichi’s posture against China was a “glaring self-contradiction” and an instance of “Japan’s hypocrisy.” Despite her stated willingness to talk, Takaichi has made no serious effort to resume bilateral leaders’ talks and normalize economic relationship with China. Takaichi’s G7 diplomacy seems to have only exacerbated tensions with China.
 
It has not helped Takaichi that other G7 countries, suffering from Trump’s tariff policies, have approached China about trade deals that might restore their economic performance to the pre-U.S. tariff levels (or beyond). Macron visited China last December, calling for efforts to promote multinationalism with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Beijing last January and agreed with Xi on advancing a strategic partnership between the two countries. Carney described relations with China as “more predictable” than those with the Trump administration.
 
Outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Xi in Beijing also in January. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China in February. And Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni paid an official visit to China in July 2024.
 
Even worse, from Takaichi’s perspective, Trump himself visited China in May, agreeing with Xi on building a relationship of strategic stability between the two countries. Takaichi is the only G7 leader who has not made a visit to China. All that she has been able to do was to visit the White House before Trump visited China. Japan finds itself uniquely isolated in its adversarial China policy. It is time for Takaichi to emulate her G7 colleagues and improve bilateral relations with China.

Expanding Japan's Imperial Family

The Diet’s Unanimous Opinion on Maintaining the Imperial Family

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 8, 2026 Updated June 15, 2026

The Speakers and Vice-Speakers of both chambers of the Diet agreed to a draft of a “unanimous opinion” [立法府の総意] of the legislative branch to secure members of the Imperial Family. The draft proposes expansion of the family in two ways, adopting expert recommendations from 2021. First, female members of the family would be allowed to remain in the family after marriage. Second, male members of branches of the Imperial Family that were excised in 1947 could be adopted and thus re-enter the family.
 
The acting chair on this issue, Speaker of the Lower House Eisuke Mori, hopes to make these changes through amendments to the Imperial House Law by the end of the current session of the Diet on July 17. 
 
The Imperial House currently has 16 members, only three of whom are male and eligible to succeed to the throne. Members of the public, members of the Diet, and the imperial family itself are concerned that the family may dwindle. There is a near-term issue about lightening the responsibilities of each family member. The duties of the imperial family to participate in the life of the nation – such as participating in ceremonies of national events or official visits of foreign heads of state – are in fact extensive and occasionally burdensome. Spreading out these responsibilities by expanding the imperial family would be helpful to all.
 
Allowing married female members to remain in the family has the overwhelming support of all the parties. Article 12 of the Imperial House Law provides that a female loses her status as a family member when she marries. If female members could remain in the family, they could share the roles of the Imperial Family. The draft accordingly would allow all female members to stay after marriage. The draft also includes transitional measures to respect the will of female members who have been living their lives based on current law – i.e., not all female members may wish to stay in the family.
 
Whether the husband and children of a female member remaining in the family should also have the status of members of the Imperial Family has been a controversial point. While some lawmakers with Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) support such inclusion, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) oppose it. If the husband and children do not have the imperial status, possible questions are “Do they have the right of freedom of religion or political activities?” or “Can they spend the governmental funds for the Imperial Families?
 
The draft does not take a position on the status of husband and children and merely recommends adding a supplementary provision to the revised Imperial House Law that hopes to resolve the issue sometime in the future.
 
More divisive in the draft is a process for the Imperial Family to adopt a male from a branch of the former Imperial Family that had been excised in 1947. That former Imperial Family share the same ancestor of over 600 years ago with current Imperial Family. Article 9 of the Imperial House Law unequivocally prohibits Imperial House members from adopting children to prevent members from disrupting the imperial lineage.
 
While the LDP and JIP approve of the adoption proposal, as do some conservative opposition parties, some CRA members have protested it. For them, an adoption without consent may violate the constitutional provision that prohibits discrimination based on family origin. Even some conservative scholars are skeptical about the idea of adoption.
 
Considering the CRA’s objections, the draft includes conditions on adoption. There would be a minimum age for adoption, which is supposed to be fifteen. The draft also demands a decision on who in the Imperial Family can adopt a child. Most importantly, an adopted child would not be eligible to succeed to the throne. With these conditions, the CRA accepted adoption. The draft also recommends the Diet to resolve that this rule for adoption should be subjected to ongoing reviews.
 
Complicating things, the Speaker Mori announced his own view in his press conference that male offspring of adopted children should have eligibility to succeed to the throne. That represented a conservative standpoint which insists on making paternal succession certain rather than the legitimacy of lineage concerning adoption. Some opposition parties firmly oppose Mori’s idea. Mori later explained that he was referring to an interpretation of the current law, and not binding future discussions.
 
The draft would not affect other Imperial Family rules. The draft unequivocally reconfirms the current order of succession to the throne. The first successor of Emperor Naruhito is Crown Prince Akishino, followed by his son, Prince Hisahito. Maintenance of the current order was a requirement of the experts’ report in 2021. That report separated discussion about provisions to enlarge the Imperial House from the line of succession.
 
The speakers distributed the draft to the parties on June 8 and concluded the draft as “unanimous opinion of the legislative branch” with approval of seven parties out of all thirteen on June 10. The Emperor Abdication Special Law of 2017 demands such unanimity. The opinion was submitted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Takaichi Cabinet is expected to submit a bill of revised Imperial House Law to current session of the Diet.

It is noteworthy that the Emperor Naruhito commented on securing Imperial Family members right after the Speakers wrapped up the unanimous opinion. “I hope it to be understood by the people,” he said in his press conference before leaving Japan to visit Europe on June 11. Although reserving judgement on the opinion, he clearly wants the process to be democratic and reflecting the views of the Japanese people. The emperor began his remarks by noting that the fundamental principle of the imperial family is "to share the joys and sorrows of the people."

 It is still unclear, however, whether the unanimous opinion will receive the full support of the people. Polls by news organizations find that the concept of the adoption of male members of former Imperial Family branches faces a certain amount of opposition. A substantial percentage of those polled support the right of female members to remain the in family after marriage.
 
There is a popular expectation that Aiko, the daughter of Naruhito, will succeed to the throne. The “unanimous opinion” would rule out this possibility. Takaichi revealed her opposition to a female emperor during a discussion in the Diet last March. “The time has not come for discussing it. It may destabilize imperial succession,” said Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister. This is a view more representative of Japan’s conservatives who believe that succession should be only along the male line than of its citizens.

The Future of Japan's Constitution

articles on Constitution

The Leading Coalition Accelerates a Constitutional Amendment

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 1, 2026

The leading coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) has accelerated its effort to amend the Constitution of Japan to deal with emergencies. The two parties claim that the discussion of proposed amendments is nearly wrapped up. However, some opposition parties expect further discussion. Even LDP lawmakers are divided over whether the Lower House or the Upper House should be the primary forum for debate. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi encourages the discussion, presenting herself as a brave leader grappling with a divisive issue – but with no clear hope of success.
 
An amendment to address emergencies that prevent the Diet from acting have taken at least two forms. One was a rough draft of an amendment that the Lower House Legislation Bureau submitted to the Commission on the Constitution of the House on May 14. The draft primarily would add a clause to the constitution that would, in the event of certain emergencies, allow Diet members to remain in office even after their terms expire. The amendment recognizes four categories of emergency: a major natural disaster, a major spread of infectious disease, social disorder by civil war and an armed attack of foreigners.
 
According to the draft, each of these emergencies can create an “election difficulty situation”: a time in which a national election cannot be held in broad geographic areas for a certain long period. Members of the Lower House have four-year terms, and six years are given to those elected to the Upper House. The draft of the amendment states that these terms will be extended in emergency. An election difficulty situation will be declared in advance by the Cabinet with the approval of the Diet.
 
A second type of response to an emergency is also in the draft. It includes a controversial provision to authorize the Cabinet to issue an “emergency ordinance.” “In a special occasion in which it cannot afford to wait for legislation by the Diet,” the draft says, “the Cabinet can enact an emergency ordinance which is equivalent to a law.” Although the draft requires approval of the Diet after the ordinance is declared, there is no time limit on Diet action and thus no time limit on an emergency ordinance.
 
A member of the Lower House commission who represents the LDP, Yoshitaka Shindo, commented to the press that most parties agreed on the extension of terms of lawmakers in emergency and that issue can be said to be “pinned down.” Another commission member from the JIP, Nobuyuki Baba, said that all the talking points on the amendment have now been proposed and discussed. The two parties in the leading coalition hope to proceed to the next step of drafting a provision to initiate an amendment.
 
Opposition parties do not want to rush the process. The Centrist Reform Alliance disagreed with Baba’s notion that the discussion was over and that new measures were necessary to maintain the ordinary functions of the Diet in an emergency. Article 54 of the Constitution of Japan already provides that the Cabinet can convoke an emergency session of the Upper House in a national emergency. The opposition parties believe that this existing power to gather the Upper House in an emergency session will ensure that the Diet will function even if the Lower House is empty.
 
Opposition parties are further skeptical about introducing the emergency ordinance. The leader of Democratic Party for the People, Yuichiro Tamaki, argued that the proposal for an emergency ordinance power was dropped in an agreement of five parties, including the LDP and the JIP, in 2024. Moreover, a situation in which the Diet would not work at all was unimaginable if lawmakers’ terms could be extended. The Japan Communist Party has pointed out that there was an imperial emergency ordinance in pre-war Japan that was issued in Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. That power confirmed that the emperor had the highest state power.
 
This concept of imperial authority ended after World War II. Article 41 of the constitution states that the Diet is “the highest organ of state power and shall be the sole law-making organ of the State.” If the Cabinet obtains the power to issue ordinances that are equal to a statute passed by the Diet, the relationship between the legislative and executive branch under the constitution will fundamentally be changed. The introduction of the executive branch’s power to declare an emergency ordinance would erode the status of the Diet as the supreme organ of state power.
 
An unignorable fact in the discussion over the constitutional amendment is that the leading coalition does not have even a simple majority in the Upper House. A super majority – a two-thirds vote – in each House of the Diet is necessary for a constitutional amendment to move forward. While the LDP and the JIP have that majority in the Lower House after the LDP’s sweeping victory in the February elections, they do not have even a simple majority in the Upper House.
 
The Upper House is focused on an entirely different constitutional issue. In the meeting of the Upper House Commission on the Constitution on May 20, the main topic of discussion was not the emergency clause but the election system. In Upper House elections, each prefecture has had its own seats. But with the decline of eligible voters, the districts of Tottori and Shimane were integrated into a single district, just as the Tokushima and Kochi were combined, for the 2016 election and thereafter. Members of the Upper House from both sides of the aisle have urged the elimination of such integrated districts
 
The LDP accordingly has proposed a constitutional amendment to abolish integrated prefectural districts. However, the top opposition party in the Upper House, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), does not believe that an amendment is necessary; rather, the Diet can achieve this end simply by amending the election laws. Komeito, as a partner of the CDPJ in the Lower House, supports this view.
 
The LDP and JIP have different priorities regarding a constitutional amendment. The JIP is focused on an emergency clause that would enhance executive power in a time of crisis. The LDP is going in a different direction, prioritizing electoral system reform in the Upper House. The LDP thinks it will be easier to reach a consensus there on election reforms than on the emergency clause amendment. 
 
As a lawmaker in the conservative bloc, PM Takaichi has presented herself as a firm proponent of the theory of constitutional amendments. “The constitution should occasionally be updated to meet contemporary demands,” said Takaichi to a recent meeting of supporters for constitutional amendment. She did not, however, provide any details on which provisions should be amended adding uncertainty to how the debate should proceed.

Will Money Buy Japan Happiness?

Imperial Japan's battle flag
back on Philippines soil, April 2026

Japan’s Golden Week Diplomacy toward the Indo-Pacific

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
May 18, 2026
 
While the Diet took a short recess during late April’s Golden Week, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and other ministers visited countries in Southeast Asia and Africa. They sought deals with those countries over resources, including rare earth minerals, that are critical to Japan from both economic and national security perspectives. Diplomacy under the Takaichi administration relies heavily on Shinzo Abe’s legacy of using economic incentives to leverage security policy.
 
Takaichi met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra on May 4, and they signed a Joint Declaration on Economic Security Cooperation. Japan depends on Australia for 40 percent of its LNG imports and 65 percent of its coal imports. The declaration affirms that both countries will deepen their partnership on energy security and supply chain resilience. The two leaders also signed a joint statement on critical minerals, which will support projects by Japan’s private sector to develop gallium, magnesium, fluorite, and nickel in Australia.
 
The joint declaration rejects “all forms of economic coercion,” including export restrictions on critical minerals, a statement presumably directed at China. The declaration explains that export restrictions significantly interfere with global supply chains. Last January, China imposed strict controls on exports of dual-use products to Japan. Observers widely interpreted the controls as a sanction for Takaichi’s comment on the Taiwan contingency in November 2025 and her later refusal to apologize for it. It was not out of the ordinary then for Takaichi to strike an alternative deal with Australia to secure minerals and other raw materials.
 
Takaichi and Albanese also signed a Leaders Statement on Enhanced Defense and Security Cooperation, which called bilateral relations between their countries a “special strategic partnership.” They agreed to maintain assets, including upgraded Mogami frigates, and to cooperate on supply chain issues. Takaichi called Australia a “quasi-ally” in her meeting with Albanese.
 
Takaichi’s visit to Vietnam, which occurred before her meetings in Australia, showed a similar tendency to emphasize economic incentives. In her meeting with Vietnamese President To Lam on May 2, Takaichi urged cooperation by the two countries to strengthen the supply chain, including the export of rare earth minerals mined in Vietnam. In her policy speech in Hanoi, she emphasized that Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) is the lynchpin of Japanese foreign policy. FOIP is a diplomatic concept originated in 2016 by former prime minister Shinzo Abe. It is regarded as one of his major foreign policy achievements.
 
Takaichi’s cabinet ministers took the same tack on their trips abroad. Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi visited Indonesia and the Philippines to reinforce their security ties with Japan. In Indonesia, he signed of a Defense Cooperation Arrangement expanding security ties in people-to-people exchanges, education and joint training, as well as defense equipment and technology cooperation.
 
At his meeting with Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro in Manila, the two officials issued a Joint Press Statement (Japanese text) under which Japan would transfer retired Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippines.
 
Located on the first island chain, the Philippines has been suffering from Chinese maritime advances around its territory, including the Spratly Islands. Japan is now trying to support Manila’s counter-efforts. Takaichi administration has removed well-established restrictions on Japan’s exports of defense equipment in April, which had previously been limited to five categories – rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and minesweeping. The export of Abukuma-class destroyers is expected to mark the first example of Japan’s new policy on defense sales.
 
In his visit to Zambia, Angola, Kenya and South Africa from April 30 to May 5, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi underscored the importance of securing the supply chain for critical minerals and of implementing FOIP. In his policy speech in Nairobi, Motegi said that the core principles of FOIP –freedom, openness, diversity, inclusiveness, and the rule of law – would remain unchanged.
 
The Takaichi administration’s Golden Week diplomacy made clear its emphasis on economic leverage in foreign policy. Takaichi sought the support of Australia, as a quasi-ally, through economic security cooperation. Koizumi used the export of destroyers to the Philippines to enhance security capabilities against China. Motegi explored opportunities for critical minerals in Africa under the name of FOIP.
 
Diplomatic breakthroughs in the form of economic incentives that were good for Japanese businesses were a hallmark of the former Abe administration. He and his advisers believed that the promise of a robust economy would trump issues of pride and history. His negotiations with Russia in the decades-long dispute over the Northern Islands of Japan exemplified this strategy.
 
In 2016, Abe proposed eight points (English) of economic cooperation with Russia, including joint development of natural resources in Sakhalin and financial support for Russian businesses, as leverage to take back the Northern Territories. However, two years later, Abe compromised with Russian President Vladimir Putin to reduce Japan’s demand from four islands to just two.
 
Abe’s commercial approach was a total failure. Putin held to his absolutist interpretation of the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty. Russia’s administration of all four islands meant ownership and that they would not be returned. Negotiations have not continued as they were interrupted by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Abe’s inability to reach a deal with Putin completely undercut his idea that economic cooperation will reinforce Japan’s security. The Abe administration failed to account for Russian sentiment that territory obtained in the World War II at great sacrifice could not be the subject of a mere economic transaction.
 
Takaichi’s diplomacy has the same structure and rationale as Abe’s. She believes that an offer of economic support from Japan is so attractive that Japan can gain national security advantages. A factor feeding into this view may be that the offices of the Abe Administration were and of the Takaichi Administration are dominated by personnel seconded from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI). By replicating Abe’s unsuccessful strategy, Takaichi is now facing pressure from China and, unavoidably, greater involvement in the current turbulent, war-based international order.
 
Takaichi, however, is not leaving Japan’s security to mercantilism alone. She is expanding the country’s hard power. During Golden Week, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces for the first time participated in an annual joint military exercise with the United States and the Philippines, Balikatan 26. In response, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense commented “We urge the relevant countries to stop forming blocs and stoking camp confrontation and do more that truly contributes to regional peace and stability.” Neither Japan’s soft nor hard power expansion is bound to impress a restless China.

Can the Food Consumption Tax be eliminated?

Takaichi Faces the Food Consumption Tax Problem

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
May 4, 2026
 
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is having difficulty living up to her campaign commitment to eliminate the consumption tax on food for two years. Takaichi plans to introduce a tax cut bill by the end of fiscal year 2026, that is, by the end of March 2027, but the sales registration system cannot be adjusted to reflect the elimination within that timeframe. The leading parties are discussing a one percent tax rate, which the system can manage, but which is different from what Takaichi committed to in February’s Lower House election.
 
When Takaichi decided this past January to have a Lower House snap election in February to strengthen her political base in the Diet, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) included this policy in its campaign platform. The LDP said that “we accelerate considering the exclusion of food from the consumption tax for two years.” It was a countermeasure to the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) proposal to permanently eliminate the consumption tax on food.
 
After the party achieved a sweeping victory in the election, Takaichi explained that she would accelerate discussion on a zero-percent consumption tax on food for two years as a temporary measure until a refundable tax credit bill was introduced. The food consumption tax cut and the refundable tax credit are intended to support low-income families.
 
To implement these policies, Takaichi launched the National Conference on Social Security in late February, which includes members of some opposition parties. During a series of meetings, the Conference realized that elimination of the consumption tax has a technical problem. Major software engineering companies testified in April before the Conference that it would take nine to twelve months to adjust retailers’ sales registration systems to include elimination of the consumption tax on food. The system could not readily include zero-percent taxation. This timeframe would not meet Takaichi’s deadline.
 
The engineers assured the Conference, however, that they could modify the system within three months if the adjustment were to one percent rather than zero percent. Reducing tax rate from the current eight percent to one percent eases the tax rate by a substantial amount. The chairman of the conference and the chief of the LDP Research Commission on Tax System, Itsunori Onodera, reportedly said “That’s a good idea.” So, the one percent consumption tax on food suddenly appeared on the table.
 
The size of the cut notwithstanding, one percent, is totally different to the public from zero percent. Citizens have already taken account of a zero percent tax. Indeed, they believe it to be one of Takaichi’s core promises to the voters in the February Lower House election. If she fails to implement it, the Takaichi Cabinet’s approval rating will fall; indeed, this consequence is already showing up in current polls.
 
The consumption tax cut has other problems besides the registration system. Restaurants will be adversely affected because consumers will prefer buying untaxed food in supermarkets to more expensive restaurant dinners. Local governments will lose revenue since the national government now sends 40 percent of the consumption tax proceeds to them. 
 
Despite these hurdles, Takaichi still plans on zero percent. She envisages a schedule in which the national Conference concludes its work in early summer, the cabinet submits tax elimination bills in the Diet’s fall session, and the Diet passes the bills by the end of 2026. The two-year hiatus of the food tax rate would take effect at the end of the fiscal year next March.
 
Takaichi’s ideas on the consumption tax cut have occasionally changed. In May 2005, two months before the Upper House election, Takaichi told her disappointment on negative stance on consumption tax cut by then prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. She proposed no consumption tax on foods. Then, when she ran for the LDP presidency last September, she became reluctant to push for the elimination. Her reluctance was based on her view that, given current price inflation, elimination of the tax would not be an efficient way to fight inflation. Moreover, she already understood the considerable length of time that would be required to change the retailers’ sales registration system. Observers believe that she opposed a total elimination to garner the support of an LDP heavyweight, Taro Aso, who also opposed a tax cut. She at least acknowledged the practical difficulties of a consumption tax cut at this time.
 
But Takaichi then confirmed her original position in January 2026 when she called the dissolution of the Lower House. She began to say that a consumption tax cut had been her long-cherished wish. But the remarkable fact is that Takaichi has never explicitly said that she has decided to introduce zero percent consumption tax on food. She has only said that she would accelerate consideration of a full if temporary elimination.
 
The consumption tax issue has destroyed some previous administrations. The LDP lost in the 1979 Lower House election when prime minister Masayoshi Ohira considered introducing a major indirect tax, including a food consumption tax. The defeat ignited a sharp division in the LDP, and Ohira died of fatigue the following year.
 
It was former prime minister Noboru Takeshita who introduced a consumption tax for the first time at three percent. But it became one of the reasons that the approval rating for him fell into the single digits. A later prime minister who decided the consumption tax rate from five percent to ten was not Shinzo Abe but Yoshihiko Noda in 2012. Noda led a three-party consensus of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the LDP, and Komeito to push for an integrated reform of social security and taxes in 2012, but his DPJ lost its government in the Lower House election later that year.
 
The consumption tax has been introduced as a fiscal resource to support senior citizens as Japan becomes an increasingly aging society. However, the Japanese people have been complaining about the tax on their daily consumption. The function of the tax and the popular desire to eliminate it are incompatible. Like other prime ministers, Takaichi is now facing this political tension.

Japan's Energy Security Threatened

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant

Concerns on Energy Scarcity

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow,  Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
April 8, 2026

It is possible that Japan will go back to the stone age before Iran does. Concern about an energy shortage is growing in Japan ever since the United States began to attack Iran and Iran effectively blocked most oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, including those headed to Japan. Sanae Takaichi’s administration has been taking interim measures to remedy the resulting shortage and to limit oil price hikes. However, the government of Japan does not have a clear path to get through its current energy scarcity.

In 2025, Japan depended on the Middle East for 94 percent of its crude oil. The ratio had increased from 72 percent in 1990 as Indonesia and China reduced their exports to Japan and later as Russian oil became unreliable after it started the war with Ukraine. Now that Iran has created a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Japan has not found any alternative route to transport oil from the Middle East.

Gasoline prices immediately responded to the attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel. The retail price of regular gasoline rose from 153 yen per liter in late February to 183 yen in the second week of March. Gasoline retailers always raise the gasoline price more swiftly than reducing it. Long lines of cars waiting to get gas were common at service stations by early March.

Prime Minister Takaichi decided to subsidize gasoline retailers to bring the gasoline price down to 170 yen per liter. She found resources for the subsidy in a governmental fund established during the COVID-19 pandemic to stabilize living standards. Although the regular gas price is controlled at 170 yen for now, the subsidy is not very sustainable because it will upset the government’s financial balance if it is prolonged.

Japan had an oil reserve for 254 days when the war in Iran began. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced that it would eventually release that reserve as needed to maintain the supply to industries and families. Following the release of a fifteen-day supply from a private reserve on March 16, the government released a month’s supply from the national reserve on March 26. It was the first release from the oil reserve since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

It is undeniable that the release of oil reserves is an interim measure. Concern about an oil shortage is spreading throughout the business sectors. One key product is naphtha, which is refined from oil and which serves as a raw material for chemical products. It is used, for example, in making a thinner that removes grease from industrial machines. In his press conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara dismissed social media rumors that the Japan’s supply of naphtha would run out in June.

A major oil retailer, Idemitsu, decided to reduce production of another oil-based product, ethylene used for plastic bags. Price hikes in oil will also reduce the supply of polyester for clothes and acetone for cosmetics.

Elsewhere, the negative impact on power generation is immeasurable. Japan depends on thermal power generation for 70 percent of its electricity. The fuel for this 70 percent breaks down to a little more than 30 percent in natural gas, a little less than 30 percent of in coal, and 10 percent in oil. An oil shortage thus puts 10 percent of Japan’s total power generation at risk.

It is urgent that the government of Japan find alternative fuel for power generation before the beginning of summer, the season when the Japanese need copious amounts of electricity to cool every room in the house. Deaths from heat stroke is so prevalent that they no longer make a news. The Takaichi administration did decide to increase the share of coal as a fuel for thermal power generation for a year to cover for the potential shortage of oil. Takaichi did not rule out a request for citizens to conserve power this year, while she insisted that it would not be necessary, with the perspective of enough oil for next year at least.

A shortage of oil from the Middle East also may make it harder than ever for Japan to meet its of carbon emission target. Japan has set targets of a 46 percent cut in the 2013 level of emissions by FY2030 and a 73 percent cut by FY2040. Japan has promised net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Oddly enough, there has been no immediate discussion in the Japanese government on how to increase renewable energy to cover an oil shortage.

One theoretical alternative is nuclear power. Japan cannot, however, look to this source of energy, having imposed strict regulations after a catastrophic accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Although the government restarted a reactor in the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in January, the reactor suffered repeated, unexpected malfunctions in its control system.

Nuclear power generation also presents another problem: there is nowhere for the nuclear waste produced from a nuclear reactor to go. A law on nuclear waste directs that used nuclear fuel be buried underground, but Japan has yet to find a suitable location.  While the government hopes that Minamitorishima Island in the middle of Pacific Ocean will be a candidate site, it will take decades to finish geological research.

There is an interim facility to store used nuclear fuel in Aomori prefecture. Some used fuel has already been transferred to the facility. But the governor of Aomori, Soichiro Miyashita, has refused to permit further transfers to the facility without a designated final disposal site to which the used nuclear fuel in the prefecture will be transferred. All things considered, then, nuclear power cannot replace oil as an energy resource for present-day Japan.

The U.S. President Donald Trump announced two-week ceasefire in Iran, based on conditions including opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal does not guarantee Iran’s safety from future attacks by the U.S. or Israel, which means the ceasefire may not work for to lower the price of oil price. 

In the absence of an immediate replacement for oil, the government of Japan is looking for alternative routes to transport oil from the Middle East. But it has not found viable waterways so far. The war in Iran thus has revealed Japan’s energy vulnerability – a condition like the one that put them on the road to World War II.

Takaichi Diet Lesson

Takaichi Realizes the Power of the Upper House

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow,  Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
March 29, 2026
 
A power play over Japan’s FY2026 budget bill resulted in a defeat for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi by the opposition parties. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced on March 30 that it has given up its attempt to pass the budget bill before the end of March. The Cabinet was forced to submit to the Diet an interim budget bill to authorize spending for the beginning of FY2026. Despite this setback, Takaichi continues to be highly popular in recent polls.
 
Looking back at the past few months, Takaichi exercised her constitutional power and dissolved the Lower House on January 23. The House held a general election on February 8. Her decision was fundamentally surprising because the timing of the snap election put at risk passage of the annual budget bill, which must occur before the beginning of the next fiscal year on April 1. Takaichi nevertheless initiated the snap election to reinforce her political support before her approval rating fell.
 
The LDP’s sweeping victory in the election went beyond her expectation. Takaichi and her staff in Prime Minister’s Official Residence (Kantei) came to believe that they were invincible, able to make impossible possible. Takaichi called on the Diet to pass the budget bill before the fiscal year began. The LDP in the Lower House obliged; it passed the budget bill with only 59 hours of discussion, ignoring the established but unspoken agreement between the parties to discuss a budget bill for at least 80 hours.
 
This hard push by the leading party stirred anger in the opposition parties in the Upper House which still outnumber the LDP. The opposition held captive a few bills relating to the FY2026 budget. Two of them were the high school tuition bill and the free school lunch bill which were to take effect in April. These bills also needed to pass the Diet by the end of March.
 
The Committee on Education, Culture and Science in the Upper House was to discuss the bills. The chair of this committee is a member of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the biggest opposition party. The chairman delayed discussion of the bills at the request of the opposition parties who first wanted to thoroughly examine the qualifications of the Minister of Education, Yohei Matsumoto [松本 洋平], who had a history of extramarital affairs. The opposition parties threatened the LDP that they would scrap the two bills if the parties did not have enough time to discuss the budget bill in the Upper House.
 
The leading parties and opposition parties struck a deal in late March. The leading parties would give up on meeting the March 31 deadline for the FY2026 budget bill, allowing time in the Upper House for discussion for the bill in early April. In the meantime, there would be an interim budget bill for 11 days, by which time the Diet is expected to pass the budget. The opposition parties agreed to pass the related bills, including the high school tuition and school lunch bills by the end of March. Although media reports did not go into detail, the LDP leaders told Takaichi about the deal on March 23. But Takaishi still insisted on passage of the budget bill by the end of March.
 
Takaichi must have known of the LDP’s weakness in the Upper House and of the deal between the parties to pass the bills. In fact, the FY2026 budget bill includes an economic stimulus package. Any delay in the budget bill will frustrate voters who expected assistance in this time of price inflation. Takaichi and her staff mistakenly thought that the opposition parties, afraid of public annoyance, would not be so persistent in opposing the budget bill.
 
She and her staff miscalculated the anger of the opposition parties in the Upper House. An extraordinarily abbreviated discussion on the budget bill brought to the fore a fundamental concern about the existence of the chamber, which has been dubbed “a carbon copy of the Lower House.” Regardless of their positions as either leading or in opposition, the parties in the Upper House felt challenged about their raison d’etre.
 
As a matter of fact, the Upper House sometimes has played a crucial role in the history of the Japanese government. The Ryutaro Hashimoto administration fell to a minority government in the Upper House after a defeat in the 1998 election. On the advice of his mentor, former premier Noboru Takeshita, Hashimoto stepped down as prime minister even though he maintained a majority in the Lower House.
 
In 2007, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believed that the LDP’s majority in the Lower House could overcome its minority position in the Upper House. The result was terrible. A cabinet reshuffling caught some ministers in scandals related to the mismanagement of political funds. When the Upper House blocked an anti-terrorism bill, Abe’s chronic disease returned, he could not attend a plenary sitting in the Diet, and he decided to resign.
 
Prime Minister Naoto Kan left office in 2011 because a bill to authorize government bonds to fund reconstruction after the East Japan Great Earthquake earlier that year could not pass the Upper House. He asked the LDP, which had a majority in the house, to pass the bill in return for his resignation. These episodes illustrate that the Upper House has the power to destroy an administration.
 
Despite her mismanagement of the budget bill, Takaichi remains highly popular in two polls. Nikkei Shimbun reported a 72 percent approval rating of Takaichi’s Cabinet. She also maintained a high rating in the Mainichi Shimbun poll with 58 percent approval. Although there is skepticism about her attitude to the Diet, a substantial share of respondents preferred her performance in her summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Her style of relying on popular opinion is still working and may continue for some time.