Imperial Succession Undermined

josei tennō (女性天皇)

Takaichi Excludes Women from Becoming Emperor, Ignoring the Will of the People

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 20, 2026

Prime Minister Takaichi has been aggressively trying to expand the male line of succession to the Imperial Throne, but she is doing so in a way that undermines the constitutional basis of the Imperial Family. On June 10, the House of Representatives of the Diet passed a bill that amends the Imperial House Law (IHL) to permit the adoption of males of former imperial families. The Upper House approved the bill on July 17.  The law gives the male offspring of the adopted male (but not the male himself) a place in the order of succession to the throne of the Emperor. 

Since only some but not all the opposition parties approved the bill, the amendments cannot be said to reflect the unanimous opinion of the legislative branch.

Unanimity is a key constitutional principle for the Imperial Family in Japan. Article 1 of the Constitution of Japan provides that the position of the Emperor is derived from the will of the people. The Japanese interpret this article to mean that the will of the people must be unanimous. When former Emperor Akihito abdicated the throne in 2019, the Diet attached a supplemental resolution on unanimity to the special law for the abdication.

That resolution required a discussion in the Diet to obtain a “unanimous opinion of the legislative branch” on stable succession to the throne. The resolution contemplated a unanimous opinion that would reverse the declining number of Imperial Family members. This year, the Speakers and Vice-Speakers of both Houses of the Diet held a brief discussion and wrapped up a “unanimous opinion” and handed it to Prime Minister Takaichi on June 10. The opinion allowed female members to remain in the Imperial Family after marriage and permitted the adoption of males of Imperial Family branches that had left the Family in 1947.

After delivery of the unanimous opinion, the Takaichi Cabinet proposed amendments to the Imperial House law to maneuver around the unanimity requirement in the 2019 supplemental resolution. The legislation includes two critical new measures relating to Imperial succession that were not part of the unanimous opinion.

One is to include the offspring of an adopted male in the line of succession to the throne. This amendment would codify Takaichi’s desire to maintain strict patrilinear succession. Not all males in the Imperial Family branches will qualify for adoption: eligible adoptees must be at least fifteen years old and cannot already be married or already have children. In the discussion of this provision in the Diet, members recognized that adoption of male members of the former Imperial Family would offset the current shrinkage in the Imperial Family. The unanimous opinion of the Diet did not include a discussion of the sons of an adopted male.

The second new element in the legislation is not to give the husband and children of female members that remain in in the family the status of Imperial Family members. These children could not in any case join the line of succession because they are in the female line. It is highly unusual for members of a family to be separated by legal status. Nevertheless, the draft recognizes only the mother as a member of the Imperial Family and excludes the father and the children. Again, this provision was not part of the unanimous opinion.

The Takaichi Cabinet submitted a draft of the revised IHL to the Diet on June 30. Takaichi asked the leading parties to make their best efforts to pass the bill in the current session of the Diet. The Committee on Rules and Administration of the Lower House discussed the bill for just three hours on July 10. The House Plenary Sittings passed the bill later that same day.

Notably, the top opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), voted yes on the bill. The party had originally opposed the idea of placing the male offspring of an adopted male in the line of succession. After hearing the explanation by the Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minoru Kihara, in the committee to the effect that the revised IHL would not affect or bind future succession discussions in the Diet, the CRA changed its vote to yes. Under the bill, future discussions occur only at thirty-year intervals.

In protest of the CRA’s decision, four CRA lawmakers walked out of the Plenary Sittings. The Japan Communist Party (JCP) voted no on the bill, arguing that the bill had become totally different from the unanimous opinion of the legislative branch. Even the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) coalition partner, quibbled with the provision in the bill that limited adoptions of male members to those no younger than fifteen. It can hardly be said that the bill represents the unanimous opinion of the Diet.

On July 17, the Upper House in its Plenary Sittings passed the bill by a vote of 184 to 57 – obviously not a unanimous view.  

Looking at the voting in both chambers, six parties approved – the LDP, JIP, CRA, the Democratic Party for the People, Komeito, and Sanseito. Five opposition parties voted in the negative – the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, JCP, Reiwa Shinsengumi, the Social Democratic Party, and Okinawa Whirlwind. Team Mirai approved the bill in the Upper House but released its members in the Lower House to vote as they saw fit. Interestingly, the Conservative Party of Japan abstained.

It is still unclear why Takaichi has been so hasty in completing revisions of the IHL in the current session of the Diet. Popular sentiment is against the quick action. In the poll of Asahi Shimbun last month, 71 percent of respondents thought that legislation for adopting males in the male line did not need to be made soon. In a more recent Asahi Shimbun poll, 60 percent of respondents thought that the revised Imperial House Law had not received views of the people, while only 24 percent thought it had. 

The conservative lawmakers obviously hoped to maintain the imperial throne in the male line. It is likely that they wanted to act now while Takaichi enjoyed a high approval rating in the polls. They made it but possibly at the cost of that very approval rating. The same recent Asahi Shimbun poll revealed that the approval rating for the Takaichi Cabinet declined from 60 percent in June to 53 percent in July. The disapproval rose from 27 percent to 35 percent. This finding may reflect popular reaction to the part of Takaichi’s legislation that blocks the possibility of Princess Aiko becoming Empress.

In other results, a poll by Jiji Press found that 39.5 percent approved of placing the sons (and subsequent offspring) of an adopted male in the male line of succession, while 26.9 percent disapproved. 34.0 percent hoped to give Imperial Family status to the husband and children of a female family member who remained in the Imperial Family after marriage. A smaller number, 27.5 percent, did not.

Takaichi depends on conservative lawmakers for her political base. The vice president of the LDP, Taro Aso, is one of the greatest advocates for these revisions of the IHL. His younger sister is Princess Nobuko of Mikasa. Nobuko established a new family and separated from the Mikasa Family just two years ago, in 2025. According to the revised IHL bill, Nobuko could adopt a son whose offspring would be in the line of succession to the throne.

Looking back to Michinaga Fujiwara, who exercised great power in the Imperial Family in the eleventh century, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is worried that the Aso family might be Fujiwara in Reiwa era. Michinaga left a tanka, a famous verse: “I realize this whole world is mine, only I ignore the eclipse of the moon.” Takaichi needs to keep Aso as her guardian in the LDP.

Noda also asked the government to take seriously the fact that the IHL excluded adoption to avoid disruption of the imperial lineage. Eleven former imperial families that lost royal status in 1947 are 36 to 38 degrees away from reigning Emperor Naruhito. Naruhito and they must reach back some six hundred years to find their common ancestor. 

Takaichi will now be remembered as a prime minister who prized patrilinear succession over the legitimacy of the throne. 

Takaichi's Constitutional Reform

Takaichi Pushes Her Conservative Agenda

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 29, 2026
 
With less than three weeks before the end of the current Diet session, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has accelerated work on her conservative agenda. Opposition parties have signed on to some of her agenda items, but others require additional support to build a majority in the Upper House. In some cases, Takaichi’s maneuverings have frustrated the opposition parties. 
 
Penalty for National Flag Vandalism
Article 92 of Penal Code prohibits damaging the national flag of a foreign country for the purpose of insulting the country. The law is intended to protect diplomatic relations with foreign countries. But Japan does not have any proscription on vandalism to its own national flag. Conservative lawmakers, including Takaichi, are dissatisfied with a situation in which defilement of the national flag of Japan goes unpunished.
 
Conservatives are proud of the national flag of Japan, or Hinomaru, which depicts a rising sun. They believe that paying respect to Hinomaru exemplifies patriotism. In wartime Japan, people were obliged to salute the Hinomaru hoisted along the streets. Although they may not hope to bring back that pre-war culture, the conservatives cannot abide insulting a symbol of Japan.
 
When they formed the leading coalition last October, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) agreed on the terms of legislation to establish the “crime of damaging the national flag” in 2026 ordinary session of the Diet. Although the ordinary session was closed on January 23 when Takaichi dissolved the Lower House for a snap election, a special session was convoked after the election; this session is scheduled to adjourn on July 17.
 
The LDP approved a draft of a bill named the National Flag Vandalism Punishing Act in early June, on which the JIP agreed. Although the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) had been skeptical about the need for the law, it signed on after the LDP struck a provision that would have criminalized the posting of a scene of damage to Hinomaru on a social networking service. The bill was finally submitted to the Diet sponsored by the LDP, JIP, DPP and the ultra-conservative Sanseito. It also gained support of populist Team Miral and is expected to pass both chambers of the Diet.
 
It is highly unclear what interest the bill represents. The law will prohibit any age to Hinomaru “in a way that causes the public to feel uncomfortable or disgusted.” A violation will carry up to two years in custody and a fine of up to two hundred thousand yen. The sponsors of the bill have argued that the law will protect the feelings of people who think Hinomaru is precious and will prevent flag-vandalism in the future. The bill is based on the premise that Hinomaru is precious to everyone. It is unusual for the Diet to make a law with little factual basis for it.
 
The Diet has continued to entertain these strange discussions. Sponsors have cited such instances of supposed defilement of Hinomaru as tearing Hinomaru apart in a train station, stomping on Hinomaru, blotting it with increment, and livestreaming an act of vandalism. But streaming a recorded video of damage to the flag will not be punished. The sponsors have also created exceptions for disposal of an old flag, cutting off a flag that has twisted around ceiling light, and signing messages on Hinomaru for a national sports team.
 
The sponsors of the bill argue that the law will not force the people to pay respect to Hinomaru. However, the law will inevitably be coercive. Meanwhile, freedom of expression will be on the verge of erosion with a concern that not paying respect to Hinomaru might be punished even if the law does not obligate the people to love the Hinomaru.
 
Securing Imperial Family Members
The Speakers and Deputy Speakers of both chambers of the Diet submitted a “unanimous opinion” of the Houses on membership in the Imperial Family to the government of Japan in early June. The Takaichi government is preparing a bill to revise the Imperial House Law, an effort that is supposed to implement the unanimous opinion. It is possible, however, that the government is manipulating the process to favor the conservatives.
 
The unanimous opinion would allow female members to remain in the Imperial Family after marriage and would authorize the Imperial Family to adopt male members who had been in the male line of former Imperial Families. Retaining female members has broad public support. The adoption provision faces hurdles, however: current Imperial House Law unequivocally prohibits adoption and it receives less public approval than retaining female members. But conservative lawmakers firmly support adoption to ensure that the Imperial House is sustained by males in the male line.
 
On Friday, the 26^th, most major newspapers reported with some surprise that the Takaichi government was drafting an amendment to the Imperial House Law that would permit the male offspring of an adopted member of the Imperial Family to succeed to the throne of the Emperor. The draft would not place the adopted male member himself in the line of succession to the throne, but a son or grandson could join the line.
 
This move reflects the confidence of the conservatives on keeping the male line. One LDP conservative lawmaker, Hirofumi Nakasone, definitely remarked that Princess Aiko, the daughter of Emperor Naruhito, cannot become Emperor. “Nobody wants to be married with Emperor Aiko,” Nakasone added. JIP is still not satisfied with the provision of adoption, which is limited to a man 15 years old or older. The conservative bloc is not united on details of revision of Imperial House Law.
 
The “unanimous opinion” did not touch on succession to the throne and limited itself to the size of the imperial family. Centrist Reform Alliance argues that the draft of the Takaichi government does not reflect the unanimous opinion of the Diet. Article 1 of the Constitution of Japan provides that the position of Emperor derives from will of the people, and the Diet represents the will of the people. Without the full support of the Diet, the Takaichi government draft could destabilize the position of the Emperor.
 
Constitutional Amendment on Emergency Terms of Office
The LDP and JIP have sped up consideration in the current session of the Diet of a constitutional amendment that would extend the term of a Diet member in the lower chamber in the event of a national disaster. The Lower House Commission of the Constitution has been discussing this amendment. However, the Upper House has focused instead on election system of the house that would integrate some districts beyond the border of a prefecture. The parties have at least agreed to present such a change for a constitutional referendum.
 
Prime Minister Takaichi declared in the LDP national convention this past April that, by the spring of 2027, she would introduce a constitutional amendment. The Lower House commission has already proposed an emergency clause to extend the term of lawmakers in an emergency and to enable the Cabinet to issue orders with the same legal effect as laws enacted by the Diet. The opposition parties oppose the idea of giving the executive branch what is essentially the power of legislation.
 
The Upper House is not willing to discuss the emergency clause, because the constitution already provides that the Upper House will maintain the functions of the Diet when the Lower House is empty. Most parties can agree on the issue under review in the Upper House election – abolishing electoral districts beyond prefectural border to represent people’s will of every single prefecture.
 
But the integration of electoral districts was made to respect the one-man, one-vote principle that stems from the constitutional principle of equality under the law. In one rural district, a vote had 3.13 times greater value than those in an urban district in the 2025 Upper House election. Two concepts in the constitution, equality in value of one vote and implementation of autonomy, are competing each other

A minimum accomplishment of the parties in the current Diet session will be the revision of the National Referendum Act for constitutional amendments. It includes minor changes in the process of a national referendum. The bill was sponsored by the LDP, JIP, DPP and Sanseito. It passed the Lower House with the support of the Centrist Reform Alliance and Team Mirai. It is also expected to pass the Upper House in current session. Any further progress on wrapping up discussion of the details of a constitutional amendment in this session is unlikely. 

Expanding Japan's Imperial Family

The Diet’s Unanimous Opinion on Maintaining the Imperial Family

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 8, 2026 Updated June 15, 2026

The Speakers and Vice-Speakers of both chambers of the Diet agreed to a draft of a “unanimous opinion” [立法府の総意] of the legislative branch to secure members of the Imperial Family. The draft proposes expansion of the family in two ways, adopting expert recommendations from 2021. First, female members of the family would be allowed to remain in the family after marriage. Second, male members of branches of the Imperial Family that were excised in 1947 could be adopted and thus re-enter the family.
 
The acting chair on this issue, Speaker of the Lower House Eisuke Mori, hopes to make these changes through amendments to the Imperial House Law by the end of the current session of the Diet on July 17. 
 
The Imperial House currently has 16 members, only three of whom are male and eligible to succeed to the throne. Members of the public, members of the Diet, and the imperial family itself are concerned that the family may dwindle. There is a near-term issue about lightening the responsibilities of each family member. The duties of the imperial family to participate in the life of the nation – such as participating in ceremonies of national events or official visits of foreign heads of state – are in fact extensive and occasionally burdensome. Spreading out these responsibilities by expanding the imperial family would be helpful to all.
 
Allowing married female members to remain in the family has the overwhelming support of all the parties. Article 12 of the Imperial House Law provides that a female loses her status as a family member when she marries. If female members could remain in the family, they could share the roles of the Imperial Family. The draft accordingly would allow all female members to stay after marriage. The draft also includes transitional measures to respect the will of female members who have been living their lives based on current law – i.e., not all female members may wish to stay in the family.
 
Whether the husband and children of a female member remaining in the family should also have the status of members of the Imperial Family has been a controversial point. While some lawmakers with Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) support such inclusion, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) oppose it. If the husband and children do not have the imperial status, possible questions are “Do they have the right of freedom of religion or political activities?” or “Can they spend the governmental funds for the Imperial Families?
 
The draft does not take a position on the status of husband and children and merely recommends adding a supplementary provision to the revised Imperial House Law that hopes to resolve the issue sometime in the future.
 
More divisive in the draft is a process for the Imperial Family to adopt a male from a branch of the former Imperial Family that had been excised in 1947. That former Imperial Family share the same ancestor of over 600 years ago with current Imperial Family. Article 9 of the Imperial House Law unequivocally prohibits Imperial House members from adopting children to prevent members from disrupting the imperial lineage.
 
While the LDP and JIP approve of the adoption proposal, as do some conservative opposition parties, some CRA members have protested it. For them, an adoption without consent may violate the constitutional provision that prohibits discrimination based on family origin. Even some conservative scholars are skeptical about the idea of adoption.
 
Considering the CRA’s objections, the draft includes conditions on adoption. There would be a minimum age for adoption, which is supposed to be fifteen. The draft also demands a decision on who in the Imperial Family can adopt a child. Most importantly, an adopted child would not be eligible to succeed to the throne. With these conditions, the CRA accepted adoption. The draft also recommends the Diet to resolve that this rule for adoption should be subjected to ongoing reviews.
 
Complicating things, the Speaker Mori announced his own view in his press conference that male offspring of adopted children should have eligibility to succeed to the throne. That represented a conservative standpoint which insists on making paternal succession certain rather than the legitimacy of lineage concerning adoption. Some opposition parties firmly oppose Mori’s idea. Mori later explained that he was referring to an interpretation of the current law, and not binding future discussions.
 
The draft would not affect other Imperial Family rules. The draft unequivocally reconfirms the current order of succession to the throne. The first successor of Emperor Naruhito is Crown Prince Akishino, followed by his son, Prince Hisahito. Maintenance of the current order was a requirement of the experts’ report in 2021. That report separated discussion about provisions to enlarge the Imperial House from the line of succession.
 
The speakers distributed the draft to the parties on June 8 and concluded the draft as “unanimous opinion of the legislative branch” with approval of seven parties out of all thirteen on June 10. The Emperor Abdication Special Law of 2017 demands such unanimity. The opinion was submitted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Takaichi Cabinet is expected to submit a bill of revised Imperial House Law to current session of the Diet.

It is noteworthy that the Emperor Naruhito commented on securing Imperial Family members right after the Speakers wrapped up the unanimous opinion. “I hope it to be understood by the people,” he said in his press conference before leaving Japan to visit Europe on June 11. Although reserving judgement on the opinion, he clearly wants the process to be democratic and reflecting the views of the Japanese people. The emperor began his remarks by noting that the fundamental principle of the imperial family is "to share the joys and sorrows of the people."

 It is still unclear, however, whether the unanimous opinion will receive the full support of the people. Polls by news organizations find that the concept of the adoption of male members of former Imperial Family branches faces a certain amount of opposition. A substantial percentage of those polled support the right of female members to remain the in family after marriage.
 
There is a popular expectation that Aiko, the daughter of Naruhito, will succeed to the throne. The “unanimous opinion” would rule out this possibility. Takaichi revealed her opposition to a female emperor during a discussion in the Diet last March. “The time has not come for discussing it. It may destabilize imperial succession,” said Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister. This is a view more representative of Japan’s conservatives who believe that succession should be only along the male line than of its citizens.

Imperial Succession

Diet Discussion on the Imperial Family Resumes

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
April 20, 2026

Both chambers of the Diet, including all the parties, resumed on April 16 their discussion of a stable process for succession to the imperial throne. The Speaker of House of Representatives, Eisuke Mori, hopes to wrap up the discussion and approve a revised Imperial House Law by the end of current session of the Diet, which is scheduled to close on July 15^th. However, opinions of the parties are so different that they are unlikely to reach a consensus soon.
 
It was the first meeting with all the parties since April 2025 when two former prime ministers, Taro Aso with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Yoshihiko Noda with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) of Japan, hit an impasse on the details of revision of the law. The structure of both chambers has changed significantly since then after the elections of the Upper House in 2025 and the Lower House in 2026.
 
It is recognized that keeping members of the Imperial Family would contribute stable succession to the throne. With a decrease in the number of male members in the Imperial Family who can succeed to the imperial throne, it is urgent that Japan find a way to put a workable succession process in place. The current Imperial House Law limits succession to male offspring in the male line. The Emperor Abdication Special Law, enacted in 2017, which allowed Emperor Akihito to abdicate, compels the Diet to reach a consensus on imperial succession as the will of the legislative branch.
 
A governmental conference of experts proposed to the Diet in 2021 two options for keeping members of the Imperial Family. They were 1) allowing female members to stay in the Imperial Family after marriage and 2) reinstating male members of the former Imperial Family along the male line through adoption. While the LDP, with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), considers the latter the top priority, the CDPJ focuses on the former.
 
The CDPJ argues for the first option that the spouse and children of female members in the Imperial Family should also be given the status of members of the Imperial Family. The LDP is adamantly opposed, fearing that it would pave the way for an emperor in the female line. The CDPJ is skeptical about the second option because a former member of the Imperial Family may prefer not to be reinstated in the Imperial Family. These conceptual gaps have not narrowed in the discussions among the parties.

The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) in the Lower House, which resulted from the merger of the CDPJ and Komeito in January 2026, does not have internal agreement on this issue. Mori has asked the CRA to reach a consensus within a month and before the next meeting. The Democratic Party for the People, Komeito, and Sanseito all agree with both options.
 
The conservative parties, including the LDP, JIP and Sanseito, strongly advocate for exclusively patrilinear succession and oppose an emperor in the female line. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi asserted in her speech to the LDP national convention on April 12^th that the history of succession through the male line is the source of the throne’s authority and legitimacy.
 
It is a controversial argument. The Constitution of Japan does not include her conception of the emperor’s status. Article 1 states that the emperor’s position derives from “the will of the people with whom resides sovereign power.” The emperor’s “authority and legitimacy” thus stems from the people – who therefore may call for changes. Takaichi and the conservative powers’ insistence on succession along the male line may undermine the legal basis of the emperor as stated in the Constitution.
 
Currently, there are 16 members alive in the Imperial Family, all of whom are descendants of Emperor Yoshihito of Taisho. Five are males, and 11 females. The order of succession to Emperor Naruhito is topped by Crown Prince Akishino, Naruhito’s younger brother, followed by Akishino’s son Prince Hisahito, and Prince Hitachi, a younger brother of Emperor Emeritus Akihito. Under the patrilinear descent concept, Hisahito is the only possible successor in the next generation of Naruhito. Akihito is not included in the order of possible successors.
 
Female members of the Family include Princess Masako, her daughter Princess Aiko and Akihito’s wife Michiko. In the branches, the Akishino family has two females, Kiko and Kako, and other branches have six who have not married. A female member who marries a commoner must leave the Imperial Family.
 
In 1947, just before the Imperial Household Law took effect, there were 51 members of the Imperial Family. Eleven families left the Imperial Family later that year, partly because the General Headquarters of the Allied Forces shrank the budget for the privileges of the Imperial Family. The departing families were branches of male lines of former Emperors.
 
Those 11 former Imperial Families included the Fushimi, Kan-in, Yamashina, Kitashirakawa, Nashimoto, Kuni, Kaya, Higashifushimi, Asaka, Takeda, and Higashikuni branches. Now, only four of them, Kuni, Kaya, Takeda and Higasikuni, have male members in the male lines. Other families are expected to be eliminated as former Imperial Families, since they have no male successor.
 
Among the 11 families, the Takedas may be the best known. Tsunekazu Takeda is former president of Japan Olympic Committee. He is the third son of Tsuneyosi, a grandson of the Meiji Emperor. Tsunekazu, as the chairman of the bid committee, was involved in lobbying for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games (actually held in 2021), was targeted by French prosecutors in an Olympics corruption probe. Tsunekazu’s son, Tsuneyasu Takeda, is well known as an ultra-conservative TV commentator. Tsunekazu and Tsuneyasu, however, have never been members of the Imperial Family because they were born after the Takeda family had left the royal household.
 
The second option in the 2021 experts’ report proposed that patrilinear members of the imperial family could adopt male members of the eleven families who had left in 1947.  However, the CRA and the CDPJ argue that such adoptions may violate Article 14 of the Constitution of Japan. Article 14 prohibits discrimination based on family origin. Forcing a man in one of the 11 families into the Imperial Family but who does not want to go may constitute discrimination. Debate over the stability of the Imperial Family is hard to keep politically neutral.

No Conclusion on Stable Imperial Succession

Empress Suiko (推古天皇) (554 – 15 April 628)

Still skittish on female succession

 
By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 15, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The Diet failed to act on stable imperial succession by the end of the ordinary session of this year. Although the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the House of Councillors looked for a way to increase the members of the Imperial House, the parties could not reach an agreement.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was late in wrapping up their internal opinions, due to the slush fund scandal and its consequences. Looking at the opinions submitted by the parties, it is not easy to find a consensus between the conservatives and the other sectors of the Diet.

The Imperial House of Japan has 17 members, 12 of whom are female. They share official duties such as attending public events or visiting foreign countries. According to the Imperial House Law, only male members may succeed to the throne. Female members leave the House when they marry. Currently, Prince Hisahito of Akishino, a son of Crown Price Fumihito, is the youngest in the line of succession.

A supplementary resolution in the Special Law for Imperial Abdication in 2017 required the Diet to achieve “a full consensus of the legislative branch” for measures to stabilize imperial succession. The resolution also directed the government of Japan to consider allowing for a female-headed Imperial family.

In March 2021, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga assembled an expert panel to examine succession issues. That December, the panel submitted the Prime Minister, now Fumio Kishida, a report that proposed two options to deal with the declining number of members in the Imperial House. Neither, however, addressed female succession.

One was to allow female members of the imperial household to retain their royal status regardless of marriage. Members of the Imperial House take on various obligations of the Imperial family such as attending cultural, academic, or sporting events, visiting areas devastated by natural disasters, and visiting foreign countries. As female members leave the House, those obligations are taken by fewer members. If female members stay in the house, the House would be sustainable.

A second was to allow males from former branches of the imperial family to regain their imperial status through adoption. Two years after the end of World War II, fifty-one people from eleven houses left the Imperial House. The second option would return their male descendants to the Imperial House.

Kishida submitted the report to both Houses of the Diet for further discussion in January 2022.

Each party first reviewed the report internally. Komeito approved both options as reasonable. The Japan Innovation Party, leaning conservative, also approved both options as realistic. Both parties are comfortable that the options do not include female succession. The conservatives hope to maintain the rule of paternal succession.

The Constitutional Democratic Party asked for further discussion of the first option because the report excluded the husband and children of female House members from royal status. The CDP also requested information on who among the male members of the former branches would consider rejoining the Imperial House through adoption.

The Japan Communist Party (JCP) would allow a female emperor, or an emperor descended matrilineally from the Imperial Family. While the JCP hopes to pave the way to a female emperor, conservative lawmakers oppose that idea.

The last party that submitted its opinion was the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP approved both options in mid-April.

Concerning the requirement of “a full consensus of the legislative branch” in the Special Law for Imperial Abdication, both Houses sought an overall agreement at several meetings in May. At the first meeting, with the speaker and president of the Houses and representatives of parties in attendance, each party expressed its own opinion. The LDP added that a son of an adopted male member should be qualified as a successor. No consensus emerged.

In late May, both chairs of the Houses and each party held separate meetings with each party. There was no plenary meeting. The LDP is committed to exclusively male succession. The CDP and the JCP are willing to expand the line of succession to female members of the Imperial House and to male members in matrilineal lines.

Back in 2005, the Junichiro Koizumi administration convened an expert panel that submitted a report recommended that the possibility of a female or matrilineal emperor be easily understood by the people, be based on traditional values and ensure a stable succession system. However, after Prince Hisahito was born in 2006, the LDP turned against the idea of a female or matrilineal emperor.

A Kyodo News poll last April revealed that 90 percent of those polled supported the idea of a reigning empress. However, the current experts’ panel recommended that, considering the age and marital status of Prince Hisahito, the discussion over the imperial succession take place in the future. In short, the LDP and current experts oppose the concept of a female emperor, while the CDP and former experts for Koizumi administration embrace it.

To the extent that the Diet is now dealing with the Imperial Family, it is focused on how to reduce the family’s official duties. But once lawmakers begin to discuss who should share the duties of the Imperial Family, the question of succession is unavoidable.

The Contradiction between the symbolic emperor system and the Constitution has grown

By Watanabe Osamu, Professor Emeritus, Hitotsubashi University

Translation by Lawrence Repeta for the Asia-Pacific Journal. He is a former professor of law at Meiji University in Japan, an Asia-Pacific Journal contributing editor, and a director of Information Access Japan Clearinghouse.

Just before the emperor’s retirement and the change of era, the activities of the emperor and the imperial family suddenly came to life and the news media were overflowing with stories that struck a tone of veneration. Memorial visits to Okinawa, Saipan, and other battlegrounds and devastated sites and the people’s reception of okotoba [お言葉], or his message to the public (see note below), created an atmosphere that embraced these actions by the emperor. Moreover, many pundits and constitutional scholars positively support the actions of this emperor, interpreting them as subtle criticisms of the current administration.

But we must stop and think about this carefully. For here we see a fundamental contradiction between the symbolic emperor system and democracy.

The Constitution of Japan made the emperor a symbol in reaction to the repeated pattern of colonization and wars of aggression that occurred under the Meiji Constitution, which placed all political power in the emperor. With hoyoku [輔翼] - literally, assisting wings, but meaning, in consultation with the military, the emperor pursued war with no check from the cabinet, much less the Diet. This led to the horrifying descent through disastrous battlefields that took the lives of approximately 20 million people across Asia, including Japan.

The present Constitution preserved the emperor, but based on this experience, removed all political power, limiting the emperor to the performance of ceremonies listed in the Constitution as “acts of state (kokuji koi [国事行為]),” subject to the advice and consent of the cabinet.

Nonetheless, the existence of the emperor and popular sovereignty within the Constitution is a great contradiction. Conservative governments have sought to use the immense authority held by the prewar emperor as a force for political stability and have pushed the emperor to perform acts that are not recognized in the Constitution. During the Heisei era the political acts initiated by the emperor expanded and the contradiction with the Constitution grew ever greater.

Two contradictions have increased during the Heisei era. The first is that political statements and actions by the unelected emperor have had a great impact on politics. Even though there is strong suspicion that the frequent and generally accepted messages (okotoba) and appearances (odemashi) of the present emperor are unconstitutional, they will be inherited by future emperors; we should expect that conservative administrations will take significant advantage of these fait accompli.

The second, a much more serious problem, is that by relying on the authority of the emperor, people will obscure their own awareness and responsibility as sovereigns and will continue to avoid addressing problems. Issues like war responsibility, the work of building a country that does not engage in war, nuclear power, and the military bases in Okinawa should be resolved by the people themselves.

Visits by the emperor and imperial family members and messages (okotoba) may offer a temporary reprieve, but they cannot solve problems, nor should they. If there are issues with the Abe administration, it should be the people themselves, not the emperor, who criticize them and change the regime.

So what should be done about the emperor system? First, we should move closer to the symbolic system stipulated in the Constitution. The emperor’s public activities should be strictly limited to “acts of state.” Official visits abroad described with such labels as “imperial diplomacy” (kōshitsu gaikō  [皇室外交] should be stopped. If the emperor absolutely wishes to travel abroad, he should do so as a citizen, in other words as a private person.

“Traditions” that conflict with human rights provisions of the Constitution, such as limiting attendance to males only at change of era ceremonies, limiting the emperorship to males, conducting religious ceremonies such as the Daijosai as “official acts,” should be reviewed immediately with the goal of embedding the emperor system within democratic society.

Regarding war responsibility and related issues, the people should not simply accept the emperor’s “visits” and “messages”; instead, the people should act as sovereigns, facing these issues squarely and building a politics to deal with them.

Even so, the contradiction between the emperor and democracy will remain, but the road to its resolution can only be found through these kinds of measures.

--The above translation first appeared in the September 1, 2019, Volume 17, Issue 17, Number 3 of Asia-Pacific Journal of the original “Kenpo to no mujun hirogatta – Shocho tenno sei to minshu shugi,” a Kyodo News Agency article that appeared in Chugoku Shimbun, on April 19, 2019.

Translator’s note
Various terms are used to describe deeds of the emperor, and okotoba is one of them. It is a combination of “kotoba,” meaning words, and “o”, an honorific, and together, okotoba has a connotation of “words from on high.”

Trump's Excellent Tokyo Adveture

The Death Bill & Ted Met

HOW TO STAGE A POLICY-FREE OFFICIAL VISIT, JAPANESE STYLE

TOKYO REPORT by Dan Sneider, Stanford University and APP member
First appeared in the Nelson Report, May 22, 2019

If there were an Oscar or a Tony for diplomacy, it should go to Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his team at the Prime Minister's office. They have managed to stage an official visit by the President of the United States that is almost completely free of serious policy discussion, but laden with policy purpose.

If all goes according to plan - always a big 'if' for any official visit but even more for one involving Donald Trump - this will be a series of visuals that should fill the airwaves of both countries, with barely a hint of a cloud to block the sunny scene. The message of alliance unity, and the equally important nod to the great leadership of both men, will be uninterrupted.

The schedule for the visit is a carefully orchestrated series of message moments. And the first and most important purpose is to showcase the personal relationship between the two men, one cultivated by Abe and the Japanese government to an extent that dwarfs similar efforts by other governments around the globe.

At the core of Abe's care and feeding of Trump is, quite naturally, golf. After Trump's arrival on Saturday May 25, the visit begins on Sunday morning with a round of golf at the Mobara Country Club course in nearby Chiba, accompanied by Japanese golf pro Isao Aoki. The first ladies will head to a nearby art museum for a bit of culture.

Then it is off to the Summer Grand Sumo Tournament, now in process, at the Ryogoku Kokugikan Sumo Hall in Tokyo where Trump will present the President's Cup (or by some accounts, the Trump Cup) to the winner. Needless to say, a moment designed not only to promote traditional Japanese culture but also to offer a slimming visual contrast with our own heavyweight. Dinner that evening is at a very nicerobatayaki (traditional Japanese grilled food) in Roppongi (your author admits to having dined there).

Where is the real beef you ask? Well on the next day, there are some talks scheduled, along with a press conference. If there is anything of substance to discuss, it will take place there. "Tokyo will want to talk about some issues - North Korea, US-China trade talks, and perhaps the political prospects ahead for both Abe and Trump," says Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations, author of a must-read new book, Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power.

But the centerpiece of the trip will be the audience, the first for any foreign leader, with newly installed Emperor Naruhito, a moment redolent with meaning as it is the start of the new Reiwa Imperial era. The Imperial couple will host, as is traditional for state visits, a very formal banquet that evening--no off the cuff moments allowed.

The symbolic significance of this Imperial encounter cannot be underestimated. The Japanese government's central goal in organizing this trip was to make sure that the American president was the first one to see the new Emperor--not, heaven forbid, the Chinese leader who comes next month.

On Tuesday (May 28), on Trump's way out of town, the visual narrative will be all about the US-Japan security alliance and, not accidentally, Japanese arms purchases from the US. Trump will head to the strategic shared naval base at Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay for a visit with US 7th Fleet headquartered there and to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force fleet anchored across the way. [N.B.: Former base of the Imperial Navy]

He will be taken to the Japanese helicopter carrier JS Kaga (DDH-184), which is a de facto flattop (aircraft carrier). [N.B.: Named after the Imperial Navy's aircraft carrier Kaga that led the attack on Pearl Harbor.] It is likely to be equipped with the short take-off and vertical landing version of the F-35 fighter, the F-35B, made in the good old USA.

Is this all about imagery and symbols of alliance? What about the things that really require alliance management--economic and trade relations, Iran, the trade/cold war with China, North Korea?

"Of course, there are substantive questions for the bilateral relationship," the great Japan scholar from MIT, Richard Samuels, told me. "But I don't expect the Japanese to make great efforts to call attention to them. To the contrary. My guess is that this will be an all hands-on deck charm offensive by Abe and the GOJ-- just their latest play to Trump 's outsized vanity.

If it goes well-- and it should because they have practiced this for more than two years-- we will all be able to hear a collective exhale of relief just as soon as Air Force 1 goes wheels up. (And I would guess much of that released hot air will come from the US side, too.)"

Even the White House could not manage to spin this as a substantive visit, though presumably they will try better in next days. But in the background briefing yesterday, a senior administration official admitted that trade, the big bilateral issue on the table, will not be the focus of the visit.

Even in Tokyo, where the media is more dutiful about conveying the briefings of the Prime Minister's office, there is a healthy dose of skepticism behind the scenes.

Japanese journalists know that both men have their eyes firmly fixed on domestic audiences - and on the elections coming up for both of them. For Abe, that means the Upper House elections in late July, and possible dissolution of the entire Lower house for a 'double election.' For Trump, of course, it means the constant campaign.

"It's all show," a veteran Japanese political reporter told me. "It's all about the upcoming election of Upper (and possibly Lower) House. This is a big wining and dining display of omotenashi [hospitality to a guest] toward POTUS in hopes to emphasize PM Abe's status both in Japan and in the world as the closest partner of Trump's. Opinion polls indicate the change of era with the new emperor's enthronement has been working pretty well as tailwind for the sitting PM's administration, as was deliberately planned and choreographed.

The new emperor and POTUS are to be the ideal combo to highlight Abe's irreplaceable leadership to the Japanese audience. There will be no substance in terms of real policy, or at least any unwelcome request from the US side will be hidden until after the election. That should be the deal between these two populist leaders."

Granting the "policy-lite" nature of this visit, as Sheila Smith puts it, what are the messages being sent and where can things go sideways? Let's look at three key areas - trade, defense, and the sideways dangers posed by China and by Iran.

As for North Korea, it may get some visuals in the form of planned meeting by Trump with the families of the abductees--a gift to Abe--but there is actually little to discuss for now on that front. Trump is back to the place Tokyo prefers when it comes to Pyongyang and all that is needed is to make a show of discussion.

KICKING THE TRADE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
Japanese and US working level negotiators met this week in Washington and USTR Bob Lighthizer will be meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Toshimitsu Motegi on Saturday (May 25). Despite some loose talk about moving quickly to a deal in the aftermath of the wonderful weekend, perhaps ahead of or alongside the upcoming G20 meeting in Osaka in June, there is no reason to think that is actually happening.

From Tokyo's point of view, there is every reason to drag this process out - not only because of the summer elections in Japan but also because there is no sign that Trump is ready to give Abe what he needs to make a deal. Washington, for its part, is preoccupied with China.

The crux of the matter between Japan and the US is relatively simple. The US wants an early and politically important decision by Japan to give American agricultural producers - mainly beef and pork but also wheat, dairy, wine and other agricultural products - the same reductions in tariffs and greater market access that have been given to the 11 members of the Trans Pacific Partnership and to the EU.

Australians, New Zealanders, Canadians and others are already rapidly increasing market share at American expense. Ironically perhaps, the agricultural agreement was negotiated by the Obama administration as part of the TPP which Trump threw out the window on his first day in office. Now the US has the temerity to suggest that Japan has committed a hostile act by implementing that agreement with the other members of the TPP and with the EU.

The Japanese are perfectly happy to give that same access to the US--though not anything more--but only under two important conditions. First it cannot be a one-off separate deal, one that would violate WTO rules. Second, it must be paired with US concessions on autos, namely removing permanently the threat of imposing tariffs on Japanese cars under Section 232, as well as the ongoing tariffs on steel and aluminum exports. Trump has merely postponed the auto threat and that only ensures that talks will continue.

The Japanese mood can best be described as quietly tough. "Tokyo is not in a hurry and has no need to be so," former senior foreign ministry official and prominent Japanese commentator Miyake Kuni told me. "If there would be a deal before or on the side of the G20 summit, there should be a package deal address all the issues, including the U.S. abolishing tariffs newly imposed on steel and aluminum or to be imposed on autos," says Miyake, who directs research at the Canon Institute for Global Studies.

Most analysts believe that the administration trade focus remains firmly fixed on China in any case and Japan is a back-burner issue. Hence its actual non-appearance on the Wonderful Weekend agenda. Still, there is the reality that while Trump may be physically in Tokyo, his mind will be back home.

"I do worry that Trump could go off script in Tokyo," says Jim Schoff, who runs Japan studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The visit is so tightly scheduled that the only place that can occur is at the joint presser--armies of aides on both sides will work overtime to make sure that doesn't happen, if they can.

DEFENSE AND SECURITY TIES ON PARADE
The Japanese government, and Abe personally, wants this visit to showcase the close security ties between the two allies. There will be lots of talk about the shared commitment to "a free and open Indo Pacific," accompanied perhaps by over hyped talk of Japan's readiness to play a broader regional security role. This serves also to deflect attention from the trade front.

But Tokyo's real intent is to head off the threat from Trump to link Japan's alleged free ride on defense to trade issues. One piece of that is to keep talking about Japanese arms purchases - something Trump loves to brag about. There is nothing new to announce but look for Tokyo to rebuy what has already been sold. The Japanese already face difficulties funding the commitments they made to date, Smith points out, "so I don't see a lot of room for more."

More seriously, the US and Japan are already beginning to discuss, ahead of more formal talks, the levels of Japanese contribution to the cost of American forces based in Japan--Host Nation Support as it is called in Japan [N.B.: in Japanese the sympathy budget]. The Japanese are watching the escalating rhetoric from Trump toward South Korea demanding more money and point out they already provide the greatest levels of support of any ally. As Miyake told me, there will be "no new Japanese concessions" on this issue.

The visit to the United States Fleet Activities Yokosuka (横須賀海軍施設 Yokosuka kaigunshisetsu) serves these multiple purposes beautifully--and will offer the kind of television images that Trump revels in showing.

THE ICEBERGS - CHINA AND IRAN
Beneath the placid surface of the Imperial weekend, two icebergs lurk that may show themselves slightly. The most likely one of these is China. Japanese policy makers, and particularly the business community, are growing very alarmed by the prospect of an unending and even escalating trade war with China. While they share important goals with the US regarding China as a market and a competitor, they are already feeling the impact of this trade war on their own economy.

Japan's goods trade surplus dropped a dramatic 90 percent in April from the year previous, largely due to the US-China trade tensions. While growth remained strong in the first quarter, it was due in part to the effect of a slump in imports and showed weakening domestic consumption and business spending. A downturn seems imminent and that has large political implications for Abe heading into summer elections and the looming issue of a scheduled increase in the consumption tax from 8 to 10 percent in the fall.

Japan has already moved to improve relations with Beijing - partly in response to efforts by the Chinese to the same end. Xi will be visiting for the G20 meeting and Abe needs to ensure that gathering will go well.

Then there is Iran. The Iranian foreign minister was in Tokyo last week and the Japanese made clear, again, that they do not support the US decision to upend the nuclear agreement with Iran. Japan has important oil and other economic ties to Iran and has never backed a confrontation with it, though the Japanese government keeps a low-key posture on this compared to European allies.

"The prospect of conflict with Iran and an end to the effort to find a trade agreement with China would have considerably negative consequences for Japan," the CFR's Smith told me. "The overall impact of either of these on the global economy would shake Japan's precarious economic growth, and each on its own impacts considerably Japan's oil and Middle East diplomacy and its relations with China."

This visit would be an opportunity for two allies to have a strategic dialogue, particularly when it comes to China. But don't hold your breath, says Carnegie's Schoff:

"Abe is sympathetic to some of Washington's concerns and even part of its strategy [toward China], but two things are preventing truly productive alliance collaboration on this. First is the poorly thought through, prepared, and coordinated trade and tech policies/penalties Trump is employing, and second is the simultaneous targeting of Japan and the EU for trade concessions under groundless 'national security' pretenses.

That puts Abe on the defensive with Trump and diverts the agenda. Trump only gains politically if he presses Abe hard and publicly, which would undermine all that this trip is supposed to achieve, namely a symbolic reaffirmation of the alliance in the new Reiwa Era."

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE ELECTIONS, STUPID
This brings us back to where we started - in the end, both leaders have domestic politics first and foremost on their minds. The visit is "very important for Abe in terms of his calculus for the upcoming election(s)," the veteran Japanese reporter told me. "For Trump? Maybe. When Abe rushed to greet with Trump right after the presidential election in 2016 and also when Abe paid a courtesy call to Mar-a-Largo in 2017, I think it helped make Trump look like a new president sufficiently respected by foreign leaders."

That is less urgent for Trump now - and there is the competing pressure to look tough on trade. But Abe is counting on the reality that Trump too wants to look presidential at a time when his legitimacy is again under assault back home.

Does this award-winning diplomatic show win elections? "It all depends on the outcome but voters are no fools in both Japan and the U.S.," says Japan's Miyake. "Diplomatic success won't guarantee domestic political victories."


BONUS FROM APP POINTS FOR READING TO THE END

In the week leading up to Trump's weekend great adventure in Japan:

➧Prior to Trump leaving for Japan, he visited Arlington Memorial Cemetery to pay his respects to the fallen. He will be with Emperor Hirohito's grandson, Naruhito, on Memorial Day. Trump spent 20 minutes placing small flags on three graves from WWI. One was placed on Frank Buckles' tombstone. Buckles at 110 was the longest surviving veteran of WWI. He was also a POW of Japan. He was captured in Manila while on a business trip when the Japanese invaded the Philippines in December 1941. He spent the entire war in the squalid Los Baños Internment Camp.

➧Japan's government asked for official names in the Western press to be family name first. Starting with 19th Century modernization, Japan's leaders wanted to have their names put in Western convention (read "modern"). It was part of the Meiji Restoration's way of turning its back on old man Asia. Foreign Minister Kono said the move was to align the Japanese prime minister with other Asian leaders. Maybe.

Another view is that now Japan is turning its back on old man America. It is also part to Abe's backwards shift to reacquaint the Japanese people with their pre-modern past. The greatest gripe that Abe and his followers have is that the Japanese have become too individualistic, too concerned with personal rights, too Westernized. This view under-grids their desire to amend the Constitution. What better way to remind voters that state and family come before oneself and the West (United States) than to have the foreigners recognize it as well.

➧It appears that Tokyo is hedging its bets and not relying too much in the Abe-Trump bromance to protect itself from the President's trade eruptions, The Japanese government has postponed a decision on Trump's greatest interest in Japan: the where, when, and how of casinos. Trump and friends will have to wait until fall or maybe later for the guidelines designating areas that can host integrated resorts (IR) featuring casinos. The initial plan was to set up a casino management committee during the current Diet session (ends June 26) and release a basic policy in the summer. Tokyo is either wagering Trump will be gone by fall or believes withholding the details of the casino policy is a sufficient inducement for good behavior.

Corregidor, MacArthur, and Japan's New Emperor

This article first appeared in Medium on May 6, 2019.

Staged picture of the Surrender of Corregidor

The 77th Anniversary of the day Corregidor fell was May 6, 1942. It is a history that shadows every Japanese Golden Week and especially last week’s imperial succession ceremonies.

From December 29, 1941 to the end of April 1942, despite incessant Japanese aerial, naval, and artillery bombardment, the men and women on the fortress Island of Corregidor in Manila Bay, which consisted of the 4th Marine Regiment and combined units from the United States Army, the US Navy, and Filipino soldiers, resisted valiantly, inflicting heavy enemy losses in men, ships, and aircraft.

The last week on Corregidor was brutal. The Japanese celebrated Emperor Hirohito’s April 29th birthday by intensifying their shelling. By week’s end, the island’s infrastructure was destroyed, bombing incessant, water scarce, and the invasion begun. The siege of Corregidor had succeeded.

Fearful of a complete annihilation of the more than 12,000 Americans and Filipinos on Corregidor and the three nearby island forts, Lieutenant General Jonathan Wainwright surrendered all on May 6, 1942. The rest of the Philippines were surrendered over the next month after the Japanese threatened to massacre all the POWs and civilians on Corregidor.

Seventy-seven years later, the 1942 fall of Corregidor still matters. It set the timetable for the Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers (SCAP) in Japan General Douglas MacArthur’s punishment of Japan’s militarists. And thus, it set the Abe Government’s timetable the abdication for Emperor Hirohito’s son, Emperor Akihito, on April 30, 2019 and the ascension of his son, Naruhito, to the Chrysanthemum Throne on May 1, 2019. Abe wanted to expunge an ugly history that MacArthur wanted to embed.

As noted, April 29th was Emperor Hirohito’s birthday. It was a sacred day in wartime Japan. General MacArthur ended that practice and humanized the Emperor. After the War, this date became a holiday to appreciate nature called Greenery Day. In 2007, soon after anti-Japanese riots in China, Greenery Day was replaced by Showa Day to again remember Emperor Hirohito and his reign called Showa. Greenery Day is now held on May 4.

It was no coincidence that General MacArthur chose the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal to begin and the indictments for Tojo and other war criminals to be read on April 29, 1946. MacArthur, commander of all US Army Forces in the Far East, forced to escape Corregidor, remembered bitterly his abandonment of his troops and the fall of Corregidor. MacArthur wanted the Japanese also to feel his loss and to forever associate Hirohito with war crimes. In turn, the Tribunal proceedings began on May 3, which in 1947 the new Japanese Constitution came into effect.

It was also the same thinking that led MacArthur to have General Hideki Tojo and six other Class-A war criminals hanged on December 23, 1948. This day is now-former Emperor Akihito’s birthday and long celebrated as the national day for Japan with Embassy parties worldwide. Akihito, however, is forever reminded of the date’s other history.

MacArthur did not want the Japanese to ever forget what they suffered from their loyalty to their monarchs. And he did not want the emperors to forget the consequences and responsibilities of this power. MacArthur wanted to translate the reverence the Japanese had for their emperors into a deep respect for peace.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has different goals. By sandwiching the Imperial abdication and ascension in between the important dates of April 29 and May 3, Prime Minister Abe hopes to diminish if not erase their historical significance. This is what he means when he declares that he wants to “end Japan’s postwar regime. Abe believes he must and can free Japan from these embedded reminders of the war and all that it wrought. The Prime Minister believes the Japanese people should remember the war years as a happier, simpler, and prouder time.

Yet, in his hubris and revisionist history, Abe misses that MacArthur is still setting down the markers and forcing the timetable in Japan. By maneuvering around MacArthur’s touchstones, Abe simply emphasizes them. They are now the brackets sanctioning imperial succession and the rule of law.

MacArthur’s war history will again loom large over the October 22nd formal coronation of Emperor Naruhito. October 20th, will be the 75th Anniversary of MacArthur’s promised return to the Philippines and the beginning of its liberation from Japanese rule. The last, largest and finally decisive naval battle between the US Fleets in the Pacific and the Japanese Combined Fleet was fought in the Philippines’ Gulf of Leyte from October 23–26, 1944.

Emperor Naruhito, who studied history at Oxford, is likely aware of this history. His father, Emperor Akihito, held his coronation on November 12, 1990, 42 years to the day that General Tojo was sentenced to death. Naruhito’s challenge is to be true to the MacArthur’s lessons and to administering the peace, which is the literal, albeit not official Abe government, translation of the Reiwa Era.

JAPAN ENDS AN ERA - WHAT COMES NEXT?

Ichiro Suzuki

TOKYO REPORT

By Dan Sneider, Stanford University, APP member
Reprinted from The Nelson Report, March 22, 2019

On April 30, the Heisei Era will come to an end in Japan, after 30 years of the reign of Emperor Akihito. I was fortunate as a reporter to be here when the Showa Era came to an end with the passing of Emperor Hirohito in January of 1989. It was a dramatic moment, marking the end of a turbulent passage of Japan from democracy, to militarism and war, followed by defeat, occupation and rebirth. 

The Heisei Era, despite the now constant stream of reflections on Japanese television, does not carry that sense of drama. Of course, it was momentous in its way - the collapse of the bubble economy and the end of LDP dominance, but, as the name suggested (sometimes translated as "achieving peace"), it also embodied the stability and constancy of Japanese life, marked by the return to moderate growth and conservative rule.

What comes next? The first thing will be the naming of the new era, to be announced on April 1 by the Chief Cabinet Secretary. These moments are rare in Japanese life and always seem to carry a lot of weight in defining where the nation is headed. The Imperial era name is seen as defining an entire generation, or sometimes more. Crown Prince Naruhito will take the throne on May 1, after his father abdicates on April 30.

For now, the news in Japan is dominated by two very different events - the beginning of the cherry blossom season, always marking a passage, and the retirement of Ichiro Suzuki, who used the official start of the Major League Baseball season - a two-game series here this week between the Mariners and the A's - to finally announce the end of his professional baseball career, at the grand old age of 45. Ichiro is story number one around here - NHK showed every single one of his 3,089 MLB hits yesterday and I watched enough to remind myself, as a life-long fan of the game, that he was the best pure hitter I have ever seen.

But when it comes to shaping the events ahead in Japan, the more significant news came in the form of the government's admission this week in its monthly report on the economy, after three years of upbeat assessments, that things were heading downward. The Cabinet Office still claims the economy is experiencing "gradual recovery," but it admitted the economy was weakening and will do so for the foreseeable future. Consumer spending and capital expenditure remain positive but there are already signs of significant cutbacks in corporate investment plans, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

The cause of this slowdown is a slump in exports which has been statistically evident for several months. The big-ticket Japanese exports, which remain the driver of this economy, are all being hit - cars, steel, and semiconductor production equipment. This is mainly driven by the slowdown in China, compounded by the rise in U.S.-China trade frictions, which directly affects Japanese exports that feed China's own exports. Uncertainties over Brexit also impact Japan's export sector and investment plans.

THE CHINA FACTOR
Still Japanese firms continue to invest heavily in China, reports my Canon Institute colleague Kiyoshi Seguchi, one of the foremost experts in Japan on the Chinese economy. This is especially true for the Japanese automakers who see a continued value in the domestic car market in China and are increasing their presence in China. His somewhat contrarian look at the Chinese economy and investment plans there is worth reading.

Seguchi and other analysts believe the downturn in Chinese exports will begin to slowly turn around as domestic demand resumes in China. He says the sharp drop in Chinese exports started last October but has bottomed out and that the Chinese economy is now situated to absorb the current level of U.S. tariffs. Japanese analysts are anticipating as well that the U.S. economy will start to slow down later this year. The Chinese market then may be even more crucial to Japan in the latter half of this year.

This underscores why while Japanese share the view of China as a strategic and economic threat but are not happy with the Trump tariff wars against China. A U.S-China trade deal would be welcomed here, and could have significant positive impact on the Japanese economy.

Japanese business and the government also worry about the potential negative impact of U.S. pressure for a quick trade deal with Japan. The imposition of auto tariffs, as part of that negotiating process, would be a shock to the Japanese economy.

POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY IN JAPAN
This economic news forms the backdrop of the complex political calendar of the next months, and those domestic political calculations shape in turn, as they do in many countries, some important foreign policy decisions. Prime Minister Abe is now engaging in a very delicate balancing game between the U.S. and China, though primacy always goes to the former.

We are now heading into an election season in Japan. On April 7th there will be the first round (second round on April 21) of unified local elections, held every four years in Japan. Prefectural governors, big city mayors, and prefectural assembly elections, then the vote for smaller cities, towns and villages, as well as by-elections for two Diet seats. While local issues can drive these votes, it is always seen as an indicator of voter mood more broadly. It sets the stage for the Upper House election in late July - or, as is constantly rumored in the Japanese press, a decision to dissolve the lower house as well and make it a double election.

There is no danger that the LDP and its coalition with Komeito will lose power. The splintered opposition is way too weak to imagine that happening. But a significant shift downward in the LDP vote in the local elections could signal a potential loss of seats in the upper house, all of which will unleash the barely contained desire of rivals to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe within the LDP to have him finally give up the reins of power.

Almost anticipating such challenges, senior party leaders are openly calling for a change in party rules to allow Abe an unprecedented fourth term as party president, and therefore as Premier. This would extend his rule beyond the current end date of September 2021. Abe denied any intention along those lines, causing laughter among veteran Japanese political reporters.

For Abe, the economic slowdown is a serious threat to his authority. His popularity rests almost entirely on his record of reviving economic growth, not on his nationalist yearnings for constitutional revision or even on his management of relations with the U.S. and Donald Trump, though he gets credit for that among voters. The latest economic news is feeding increased speculation that Abe will again postpone the scheduled increase in Japan's value added tax, from 8 to 10 percent, which is take place on October 1. As he did before, Abe may use that as an excuse to call a double election, especially if there is no rebound in economic indicators.

These economic and political factors are shaping Abe's diplomatic agenda as well. He hoped to pull off a long-sought settlement of the territorial dispute with Russia as a signature triumph ahead of the upper house vote. But although negotiations are still ongoing, the prospects of a deal are fading due to Moscow's less than accommodating position.

Improvement relations with China is also high on the agenda, with a Xi Jinping visit this year anticipated. But that visit has to take place within the framework of the Imperial succession and the hosting of the G20 meeting June 28-29. Both events are intended to showcase Abe's diplomatic prowess. But the Abe administration does not want either of those events to be painted in Chinese colors.

In the end, relations with Washington still trumps (excuse the bad pun) everything else. So, the Abe administration has pushed for Donald Trump to come in late May on an official visit - which usually is paired with an audience with the Emperor - so that he will be the first foreigner to meet Emperor Naruhito. They have also indicated that if Xi comes for the G20, it will not be accompanied by a state visit, claiming there are already too many demands on their ability to provide security. An unusual second visit by Xi in the fall is being discussed and if it happens, it would signal the Chinese need to sustain high levels of Japanese investment in their economy, some analysts believe.

Meanwhile, seemingly out of nowhere, the Japanese government leaked plans this week for Abe to head to the U.S. in April - later in the month supposedly (April 23-29)* - possibly a redux trip for golf and dinner at Mar-a-Lago. The nominal purpose of this is to talk about North Korea but the Japanese are not worried that much anymore about Trump wandering off the reservation with Pyongyang. The real reason is to head off a trade crisis and auto tariffs and to smooth the path for the glorious audience with the Emperor, a moment sure to flatter The Donald, followed by a trouble-free G20 gathering.

By then, the cherry blossoms will be gone, a new era named, and baseball season will be in full swing on both sides of the Pacific.

*Trump is expected to visit Japan May 26-28 as a state guest and June 28-29 to attend a G-20 summit in Osaka. If Abe's April trip is realized, the two leaders would meet face to face three months in a row.