Monday Asia Events June 24, 2024

CHINA STRATEGY INITIATIVE LAUNCH EVENT. 6/24, 8:15am-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Council on Foreign Relations. Keynote Address (8:45-10:00am): Sustaining U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. Speakers: Elbridge Colby, Principal, Marathon Initiative; Former Deputy Assistant, Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, U.S. Department of Defense (2017–18); CFR Member Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project and Senior Fellow, Asian Security, CSIS; CFR Member Matthew Pottinger, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Former Deputy National Security Advisor (2019–21); CFR Member Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Presider: Rush Doshi, Senior Fellow for China and Indo-Pacific Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative, Council on Foreign Relations; Maher Bitar, Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Intelligence and Defense Policy, National Security Council; Tarun Chhabra, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Technology and National Security, National Security Council; Presider: Ellen Nakashima, National Security Reporter, Washington Post. AGENDA

ISRAELI-SAUDI NORMALIZATION: AN EFFECTIVE INCENTIVE FOR ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACEMAKING? 6/24, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Middle East Institute. Speakers: Asher Kaufman, John M. Regan, Jr. Director, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame; Nimrod Goren, Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute; Aziz Alghashian, Fellow, American Gulf States Institute in Washington; Sectarianism, Proxies, & De-sectarianisation Project; Michal Yaari, Lecturer, Hebrew University, Ben Gurion University; Open University; Huda Abuarquob, Independant Consultant, Peacebuilding Specialist and Conflict Transformation.

THE ORIGINS OF ELECTED STRONGMEN HOW PERSONALIST PARTIES DESTROY DEMOCRACY FROM WITHIN. 6/24, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security. Speakers: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Joe Wright, Professor of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University; Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University.

A THREAT LIKE NO OTHER - THE RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA ALLIANCE. 6/24, 110:00-11:45am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow for Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS; Sydney Seiler, non-resident Senior Adviser for Korea Chair, CSIS; Scott Snyder, President and CEO of Korea Economic Institute of America. 

THE IRAN CHALLENGE: A CONVERSATION WITH FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDER GEN. KENNETH ‘FRANK’ MCKENZIE JR. 6/24, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Stimson. Speaker: General Kenneth F. “Frank” McKenzie, Jr., Executive Director, University of South Florida’s Global, National Security Institute.

THE STATE OF RUSSIA'S DEFENSE INDUSTRY AFTER TWO YEARS OF WAR AND SANCTIONS. 6/24, 1:00-2:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Samuel Bendett, Senior Associate, Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow, Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

SCHRIEVER SPACEPOWER SERIES: GEN STEPHEN WHITING. 6/24, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Mitchel Institute for Aerospace Studies. Speaker: Gen Stephen N. Whiting, Commander, United States Space Command, United States Space Force. 

REPORT LAUNCH: THE ROLE OF TRUST IN ADVANCING EQUITY IN INNOVATION. 6/24, 4:00-5:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Jessica Milli, Research 2 Impact; Holly Fechner, Invent Together, Covington & Burling; Breann Branch, Research 2 Impact; Margo A. Bagley, Emory University School of Law.

BELIEVERS AND OUR ETHICS IN THE PUBLIC SQUARE. 6/24, 4:00-5:45pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, Georgetown University. Speakers: Jonathan Chaplin, Fellow, Wesley House, Cambridge Theological Federation, Research Fellow, Cardus, Canada; Daniel Madigan, Matteo Ricci Professor of Interreligious Theology, Director, Loyola Institute, Australian Catholic University, Rector, Newman College, University of Melbourne; Mahan Mirza, Professor, Keough School of Global Affairs, Executive Director, Ansari Institute for Global Engagement with Religion, University of Notre Dame.

THE ORIGINS OF ELECTED STRONGMEN HOW PERSONALIST PARTIES DESTROY DEMOCRACY FROM WITHIN. 6/24, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security. Speakers: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Joe Wright, Professor of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University; Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University.

WIDENING THE CIRCLE: BUILDING NEW TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS. 6/24, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsors: American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Speakers: Heather Hurlburt, Associate Fellow, Chatham House, former Chief of Staff, United States Trade Representative; Michael Kilpper, Deputy Head of Division, USA, Canada, Mexico, German Ministry, Economic Affairs and Climate Action; Dan Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East; Luisa Santos, Deputy Director-General, BusinessEurope; Claudia Schmucker, Head of the Center for Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Technology, German Council on Foreign Relations.

BIOTECH INNOVATION AND BAYH-DOLE: A FIRESIDE CHAT WITH GILLIAN M. FENTON. 6/24, 10:00-10:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Gillian M. Fenton, former President of the Licensing Executives Society, Special Counsel for Innovation and Government Collaboration, GSK; Dr. Walter G. Copan, Senior Adviser, Non-Resident, Renewing American Innovation Project.

LDP Drops Constitutional Amendment in This Session

They were not enthusiastic anyway

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 17, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gave up submitting a draft constitutional amendment to the Diet by the end of current session on June 23. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had announced that he would move forward with the amendment within his term as president of the LDP, which expires at the end of September. It is now unlikely that he can fulfill this commitment. Conservatives in the party will criticize him for this, adding to the challenges that his reelection campaign faces.

It was during his campaign for the LDP presidency in the fall of 2021 that Kishida promised a constitutional amendment. In the press conference at which he announced his candidacy, Kishida declared that he hoped to finish the amendment within his term ending September 2024. “Amendment of the Constitution should be surely promoted to deal with changes in our time,” said Kishida.

Having been a member of the dovish LDP faction, Kochi-kai, Kishida was not known as a major proponent of a constitutional amendment. In his bid for support from LDP conservatives, whose votes would control election results, Kishida emphasized the amendment as one of his core policies. His approach was to incorporate “realism” to cope with political reality.

Leaving negotiation over the policy to the Diet members of the LDP, Kishida repeated that he would do his best to complete the amendment within three years. In his policy speech at the beginning of current ordinary session of the Diet in January, Kishida insisted that he would release a draft and accelerate discussions to bridge the differences of parties.

The LDP focused on adding an emergency clause to the Constitution in the current session of the Diet, which would extend the term of members of the Lower House in a state of emergency. In April, the LDP proposed establishing a drafting committee in the Commission on the Constitution of the House of Representatives.

However, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) opposed the formation of a drafting committee. CDP members of the Commission argued that the lawmakers who had been involved in the slush fund scandal should be ineligible to participate in discussions over the constitutional amendment. Several LDP members would be disqualified.

Given the resistance of the opposition parties, the LDP considered submitting a draft to the Diet with the approval only of proponents of the amendment, such as the Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), Komeito, and the Democratic Party for the People. The LDP leaders decided not to pursue that option because it would have undermined work on Kishida’s highest priority – amendment of the Political Funds Control Act. The LDP finally gave up on a constitutional amendment in the current session.

The required timeline and prerequisites for a constitutional amendment work against Kishida. Submission of a draft of a constitutional amendment requires the approval of over 100 members in the Lower House and 50 in the Upper House. A two-thirds majority in both houses is then necessary to hold a national referendum. A referendum will occur 60 to 180 days after the Diet’s approval. A simple majority of the popular vote is all that is needed to formally amend the constitution.

To meet these deadlines by the end of his presidential term, Kishida must obtain the Diet’s approval in July at the latest. But Kishida still plans to close the Diet session in June without extension to avoid further inquiries into the slush fund scandal. Kishida thus cannot live up to his campaign promise of three years ago.

The conservatives in the LDP, led partly by Ishin, moved so hastily on proposing an amendment that they failed to achieve a broad consensus. The proposed drafting committee and the idea of a draft amendment stiffened the resolve of the opposition parties. Article 54 of the Constitution empowers the Cabinet to convene a special session of the Upper House in a national emergency. Upper House members, including from Komeito, are skeptical of any amendment, because the Diet can work during an emergency with a special session, even if the Lower House members are absent.

One of the ranking members of the Lower House commission, Gen Nakatani, revealed his private “draft” in the commission’s meeting on June 13. His proposal defined an emergency as an “election difficulty situation,” such as a natural disaster, pandemic, or armed attack. The draft would have extended the term of the Lower House members for as long as six months to a year.

However, Nakatani’s idea received no buy-in from the other parties. His draft is unclear about who would declare an election difficulty situation. There could be room for extending terms in the Lower House in the event of significant weather conditions or infectious diseases, although the prior approval of a two-third majority of both Houses would be essential.

The conservatives in the LDP who have been the driving force behind the constitutional amendment are affiliated with the former Abe faction. But the faction was dissolved after the slush fund scandal and lost political power. Kishida can safely ignore any pressure from this faction to pursue the amendment.

However, Kishida has shown a decline of his own political power over his efforts to amend the Political Funds Control Act. In a mid-June Asahi Shimbun poll, the approval rate for Kishida Cabinet was 22 percent, the lowest level of his administration, and support for the LDP marked new record low of 19 percent.

Frustrated conservatives may turn to another candidate in the presidential election. There appear to be various moves in the LDP to discuss power sharing after the Diet is adjourned and after the LDP presidential election. Kishida’s chances for reelection are shrinking.

Monday Asia Events June 17, 2024

COMPLEXITIES, DISCONTINUITIES, AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF US INTERNATIONAL TAX RULES: OPTIONS FOR CHANGE. 6/17-18/2024, HYBRID. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute. Speakers Include: Kimberly S. Blanchard, Law Office of Kimberly S. Blanchard, P.C.; Kara L. Mungovan, Partner, Davis Polk & Wardwell; David G. Noren, Partner, McDermott Will & Emery; Paul W. Oosterhuis, Of Counsel, Skadden; John Bates, Principal, Deloitte; George Callas, Executive Vice President of Public Finance, Arnold Ventures; Chip Harter, Senior Policy Adviser (Ret.), Washington National Tax Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers; Michael J. Caballero, Partner, Covington & Burling; Ronald Dabrowski, Principal, KPMG; Layla J. Asali, Member, Miller & Chevalier; Paul W. Oosterhuis, Of Counsel, Skadden; Philip Wagman, Partner, Clifford Chance; Michael J. Caballero, Partner, Covington & Burling; Ronald Dabrowski, Principal, KPMG.

HOW DOES THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR END? A CONVERSATION WITH AMBASSADOR DAVID SATTERFIELD. 6/17, 10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Ambassador David M. Satterfield, director, Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy; Aaron David Miller, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT: A CONVERSATION WITH NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JENS STOLTENBERG. 6/17, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speakers: Ambassador Mark A. Green, President, CEO, Wilson Center; Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General, NATO; Philip Reeker, Chair, Global Europe Program, Albright Stonebridge Group, Department of State.

IRAQ AND THE UNITED STATES: RETURN TO THE STATUS QUO OR CALM BEFORE THE STORM? 6/17, 2:00-3:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy. Speakers: Sajad Jiyad, Fellow, Century International, Director, Shia Politics Working Group; Simona Foltyn, Independent Journalist, Documentary Filmmaker based in the Middle East; Mohammed Shummary, Professor, Al-Nahrain University, College of Political Science, Baghdad, Chairman, Sumeria Foundation for International Affairs; Steven Simon, Professor of Practice, Middle East Studies, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies of the University of Washington, Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute; Adam Weinstein, Research Fellow, Quincy Institute.

UKRAINE ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT. 6/17, 3:00pm (CEST), 9:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: International Crisis Group (ICG). Speakers: Alissa de Carbonnel, Deputy Director, Europe and Central Asia Program, ICG; Richard Gowan, UN Director, ICG; Simon Schlegel, Senior Analyst, Ukraine, ICG; Oleg Ignatov, Senior Analyst, Russia, ICG. 

AMERICAN DEMOCRACY IS UNDER THREAT. HOW DO WE PROTECT IT? 6/17, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: William A. Galston, Ezra K. Zilkha Chair, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Vanessa Williamson, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Steven R. Levitsky, Professor of Government, Harvard University; Co-author, "How Democracies Die".

PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE: A LONG-RUN VIEW OF GLOBALIZATION. 6/17, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Speaker: Christopher M. Meissner, Professor of Economics, University of California, Davis, Author of One from the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850.

IRAN RAMPS UP ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. 6/17, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). Speakers: Jonathan Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy, JINSA; Gabriel Noronha, Fellow, JINSA, Former Special Advisor, Iran Action Group, U.S. Department of State.

REPORT RELEASE: DETERRING CHINA THROUGH NONMILITARY COSTS TO PRESERVE PEACE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. 6/17, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: John Lee, Senior Fellow, Hudson; Thomas J. Duesterberg, Senior Fellow, Hudson. REPORT.  

A COMPARISON ON GENDER REPRESENTATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMICS IN JAPAN AND THE UK. 6/17, 6:45pm (BST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Japan Society UK. Speaker: Liliana Harding, Associate Professor, Economics, University of East Anglia.

The Option for a Snap Election in Japan has Disappeared

Nothing to see here

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun, You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 10, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Some newspapers have reported that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has abandoned the idea of dissolving the House of Representatives (Lower House) and holding a snap election. This was seen as an option for Kishida to preserve his administration notwithstanding its low popularity. But considering public skepticism about Kishida’s handling of the slush fund scandal in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the party’s recent electoral defeats, this option is no longer viable.

The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 4 that Kishida was about to make a final decision not to call a snap election based on multiple sources in the Kishida administration. Yomiuri Shimbun followed Asahi the next day with a report that Kishida had told some of his allies of his decision.

Kishida had hoped to call for a general election at the end of the Diet session (June 23), by which time an official visit to the United States in April and a tax cut in June would have raised his approval ratings enough to secure his reelection When these events did not improve his popularity, Kishida was forced to give up that option.

“I am now involved in some political issues which cannot be postponed. I am thinking about nothing but to bring outcomes on those issues,” Kishida told reporters on the day Asahi published its story at the top of the front page. Kishida will focus now on achieving a positive economic cycle with wage and price hikes and on repairing public confidence in politics.

It is possible that both Asahi or Yomiuri interviewed Kishida. Both reports were based on unnamed sources inside the Kishida administration or the LDP. Politicians often seek anonymity in the media when they face an important decision, like calling a snap election. They leak information to reporters to control the situation.

The LDP’s loss of seats in all three by-elections, including the by-election in Tokyo in which the LDP could not even field a candidate, undermined Kishida’s credibility as a leader for an election. It was obvious to most lawmakers in both the LDP and Komeito that they would face disastrous consequences if Kishida called a snap election in the current political environment.

With no hope of fielding a winnable candidate in the Tokyo gubernatorial election next month, the LDP is seeking an opportunity to support incumbent, Yuriko Koike, who left the LDP seven years ago.

Kishida’s power to dissolve the Lower House is widely believed to stem from Article 7 of the Constitution. This Article provides that the Emperor may dissolve the House of Representatives “with the advice and approval of the Cabinet.” Lawmakers have long interpreted “advice and approval” to authorize a prime minister to call a snap election whenever he or she likes.

Article 69 presents another way to dissolve the Lower House. It states that, if the House passes a no-confidence resolution or rejects a confidence resolution, the Cabinet will resign en masse, unless the House of Representatives is dissolved within ten days. If the Cabinet relies on Article 7 to dissolve the Lower House, the Cabinet can survive resolution a vote of no-confidence at least until the new Lower House is convened after a general election.

The prime minister’s exclusive authority to call a snap election is a matter of constitutional interpretation. But Kishida cannot do so unilaterally. Were he to try, the LDP leaders could immediately begin the process of replacing him as the president and passing a non-confidence resolution in the House of Representatives. Calling a snap election effectively requires the consent of the LDP leaders.

They are currently opposed to a snap election because it would benefit only Kishida and not the LDP. Kishida has alienated his closest ally, former prime minister Taro Aso, by negotiating a compromise with Komeito and the Ishin on revisions to the Political Funds Control Act. Through this compromise, as well as the decisions to dissolve his own faction in January and to attend the Political Ethics Council in the Diet in February, Kishida has eroded his political basis.

The LDP Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, has not concealed his ambition to succeed Kishida. He has been traveling around Japan to publicize his work on political reform. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga, who unwillingly handed his seat over to Kishida in 2021, has held nighttime meetings with LDP leaders, inviting speculation that he may be seeking a kingmaker role.

The only way for Kishida to survive this crisis is to improve his approval rating. However, there has been no significant boost to his popularity, even after the Diet passed a bill to increase the birth rate, a principal policy objective for Kishida. The system of tax cuts starting June is too complicated for the taxpayers to realize any benefit soon. And Kishida’s trilateral summit meeting with the leaders of China and Republic of Korea did not garner much public attention.

From the beginning of his administration, Kishida has been promoting his policies as a “new form of capitalism.” His goals included wage increases and the Digital Garden City Nations initiative. The slush fund scandal, however, has interrupted any progress toward these objectives.

Monday Asia Events June 10, 2024

ALL RECONSTRUCTION IS LOCAL: A FORUM ON THE EVE OF THE UKRAINE RECOVERY CONFERENCE. 6/10, 1:30-6:30pm (CET), HYBRID. Sponsor: German Marshall Fund  of the United States. Speakers: Alina Inayeh, Non-Resident Fellow, Bucharest office; Andrew Friendly, Vice President of Government Affairs and Public Policy, Autodesk; Andriy Moskalenko, First Deputy Mayor, Deputy Mayor for Economic Development, City of Lviv; Bogdan Zawadewicz, Head of Geopolitical Risk Analysis, Polish Development Bank; Bruce Stokes, Visiting Senior Fellow, Washington, D.C. office; Filiep Decorte, Chief, Programme Development Branch, UN-Habitat; Garry Poluschkin, Consultant, Country Coordinator for Ukraine, German Economic Team; Heather A. Conley, President, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington, D.C. office; Henrik Winther, Director, EU Neighborhood Policy Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark; Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow, Bucharest office; Josh Rudolph, Senior Fellow, Head of the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group Washington, D.C. office; Larysa Marchenko, Partner, Strategy, Transactions, Ukraine Reconstruction International Lead, EY; Maksym Svysenko, Advisor, Chairman, Dnipro Regional State Administration; Marcus Lippold, Team Leader, Green Deal Ukraine Service; Mark D. Simakovsky, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Europe and Eurasia, USAID; Martina Boguslavets, Head, Founder, MEZHA Anti-Corruption Center; Mark Speich, State Secretary for Federal, European, International Affairs, State of North Rhine-Westphalia; Meg Platt, Senior Development Manager, Washington, D.C. office; Nathanael Liminski, Minister for Federal, European, International Affairs, Media, State of North Rhine-Westphalia; Nataliia Katser-Buchkovska, Energy security, transition expert, Former Member of Parliament of Ukraine; Natalie Jaresko, Managing Director, Turnaround, Restructuring Strategy Practice, EY-Parthenon; Oleksiy Povolotskiy, Head Office, Energy Infrastructure Recovery, Supervisory Board Member, DTEK; Oleksandr Syenkevych, Mayor, City of Mykolaiv, Ukraine; Paul Costello, Senior Program Manager, GMF Cities, Berlin office; Penny Pritzker, Special Representative for Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction; Sergiy Orlov, Deputy Mayor of Mariupol, Ukraine; Taras Byk, Board Member, Agency for Recovery and Development; Valeriia Ivanova, Deputy Head, State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine; Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Guido Goldman Distinguished Scholar, Berlin office; Viktor Pavlushchyk, Head, National Agency, Corruption Prevention of Ukraine. 

AVOIDING WORLD WAR III: MANAGING THREATS FROM RUSSIA, CHINA, AND AI. 6/10, 10:00-11:00am (CDT), 11:00am-Noon (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Speakers: Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media; Kevin Rudd, Australian Ambassador to the US; Zeenat Rahman, Executive Director, Institute of Politics.

U.S.-ROK BILATERAL DIALOGUE FOR STRENGTHENING U.S.-ROK ALLIANCE. 6/10, 1:00-2:40pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS, Korea National Diplomatic Academy. Speakers: Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair; Park Cheol Hee, Chancellor, Korea National Diplomatic Academy; Lee Moon-hee, Senior Executive Director, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security; Yoo Ji Yeong, Senior Specialist, Center for Economic Security and Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Emily Benson, Director, Project on Trade and Technology and Senior Fellow, Scholl Chair in International Business; Ellen Kim, Deputy Director, Senior Fellow, Korea Chair.

UNDER PRESSURE: CHINA'S COERCIVE CAMPAIGN IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. 6/10, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Project 2049 Institute. Speakers: Ben Lewis, PLA Tracker; Dan Blumenthal, American Enterprise Institute; Allison Schwartz, House Foreign Affairs Committee; Project 2049 Institute Chairman Randall G. Schriver; Project 2049 Senior Director Michael Mazza .

DEFINING TAIWAN AND BEING TAIWANESE: THE EVOLVING NATURE OF TAIWANESE IDENTITY & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE POLICY. 6/10, 4:00-6:00pm (PST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Institute of East Asian Studies, UC Berkeley. Speakers: Evan Dawley, Associate Professor of History, Goucher College; Christine Lin, Director of Training & Technical Assistance, Center for Gender & Refugee Studies (CGRS), University of California College of the Law, San Francisco; Chiaoning Su, Associate Professor, Oakland University; Director, Barry M. Klein Center for Culture and Globalization, Oakland University; James Lee, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica (Taiwan), Affiliated Researcher, UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.

Cooperation on Japan’s Political Reform Bill

Fraught Relationships

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 3, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, reached a deal on a political reform bill with the leaders of Komeito and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) on May 31. Komeito and Ishin plan to vote this week for the LDP’s revised Political Funds Control Act (PFCA) in the House of Representatives. The bill is expected to pass the Diet by the end of the current session.
 
Kishida has been saying that he would make every effort to pass a bill in this Diet session. The agreement between the two parties is a step forward for Kishida in stabilizing his administration, which has been damaged by the slush fund scandal.
 
However, it is unlikely that the success in reaching a deal with Ishin will move the needle much on Kishida’s low approval ratings. An option for Kishida is to call a snap election at the end of current session of the Diet. This is not a realistic option as Kishida would need the basic support of the LDP, which he does not have.
 
A few weeks ago, the LDP and Komeito reached a rough consensus on a bill that would revise the PFCA. The agreement did not, however, resolve two issues. One was the yen threshold for the mandatory disclosure of the name and other details of a purchaser of tickets to a fundraising party. The current threshold is ¥200,000. The LDP would lower it to ¥100,000, but Komeito has insisted on a ¥50,000 threshold.
 
The second issue was regulation of the policy activities fund – money that a party gives to a lawmaker presumably for campaigning or other political activity, but neither the party nor the lawmaker is required to disclose any details about the use of the funds.   Komeito has urged that all the details of these funds be reported. The LDP has proposed only that the purpose of expenditures be disclosed. 
 
Since then and at the eleventh hour, Kishida has compromised. In a meeting with the Chief Representative of Komeito, Natsuo Yamaguchi, almost on the deadline day for legislation to be passed in the current session of the Diet, Kishida agreed to set the yen threshold for party ticket disclosures at ¥50,000. Kishida apparently acted on his own initiative without consulting LDP members who likely would have resisted.
 
Immediately after his meeting with Yamaguchi, Kishida unexpectedly met with the leader of Ishin, Nobuyuki Baba. Critical of the LDP’s response to the slush fund scandal, Ishin had submitted its own bill to amend the PFCA. The Ishin bill would require the disclosure of the receipts of the policy activity fund ten years after payments had been made. Kishida agreed to add this provision to the LDP bill.
 
“I offered an ambitious deal, because public confidence in politics would not be restored unless the bill passes the current Diet,” Kishida told reporters. The leaders of Komeito and Ishin were satisfied with each of their agreements with Kishida. “It was a great decision (of Kishida)” said Yamaguchi. Baba boasted that his party’s offer had been accepted by the LDP 100 percent.
 
Considering LDP’s lack of a majority in the Upper House, some cooperation with other parties is essential to move the LDP bill forward. With help from Komeito and Ishin, Kishida will be able to implement his promise to pass the bill in this session. For the LDP, the deal would allow fundraising parties and policy activity funds to continue albeit subject to some restrictions. 
 
Komeito has been reluctant to help the unpopular Kishida administration, but only through a coalition with LDP can the party exercise any influence in the government.
 
It was also unusual for Ishin to help Kishida. Ishin has distanced itself from the LDP to avoid becoming enmeshed in the inappropriate control of political funds. But the alternative to working with the LDP would be for Ishin to align itself with the opposition parties – the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japan Communist Party – a result that would be anathema to a conservative party such as Ishin. Defeats in the by-elections in Nagasaki and Tokyo in April also prompted Ishin to reconsider its stance as an opposition party.
 
The revised LDP bill does not include proposals from other opposition parties. The CDP has been arguing that the law should prohibit not only fundraising parties and the policy activity fund, but also donations from corporations and organizations. The head of CDP, Kenta Izumi, has said that the LDP bill falls short of fundamental political reform. The CDP is likely to criticize the cooperation among the LDP, Komeito and Ishin as “badgers in the same hole.”
 
The approach to the LDP bill will restructure political relationships in the Diet. Ishin is likely to move ever closer to the LDP. This will make Komeito uneasy. In any case, it remains unlikely that the cooperation among the three parties will rise to the level of electoral cooperation. Political coalitions often lead to integrated candidates in each electoral district. None of the three parties seem ready to do that.
 
While establishing a new cooperative framework in the Diet, Kishida generated more frustration in the LDP. On the day before his meetings with Komeito and Ishin, Kishida met with LDP Vice-president, Taro Aso, and Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi.  According to news reports, the party elders told Kishida not to compromise on the regulation of fundraising parties.
 
In the view of LDP members, Kishida decided to deal with Komeito and Ishin to preserve his administration at the expense of the financial needs of the LDP’s lawmakers. It is yet another unilateral decision by Kishida, which parallels with the dissolution of his faction in January and his attendance at the political ethics council in February. Kishida is becoming so isolated in his own party that calling a snap election is increasingly difficult.