Showing posts with label Maehara Seiji. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maehara Seiji. Show all posts

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Seiji Maehara's Assessment of the Abe Administration


Japan's Foreign and Economic Policies: Assessing the Abe Administration
By DPJ Member Seiji Maehara 
March 14, 2014
(ver. 2; 030614; 11:30 pm)

Three years ago yesterday, the Great East Japan Earthquake struck my country, and caused great damage, the effects of which were tripled by the ensuing tsunami and nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. Amongst all the outpouring of assistance extended to us from around the world, some of the warmest and most important aid was provided to us by the United States. And in the midst of this unprecedented tragedy, Operation Tomodachi was born and with it, the unparalleled assistance which continues to this day. Again, you have my deepest thanks and gratitude for your friendship.

Today, let me share with you how the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) views the Abe Administration, especially as it relates to its foreign policy and economic agenda.

On the topic of foreign policy, let me start by sharing my thoughts on Japan's relationship with South Korea, China, and the US. Next, I will move on to discuss their economic policy and explain the pros and cons of the current policy and provide you some thoughts on the longer term structural problems Japan needs to tackle. Finally, I would like to touch on what our relationship should be and how we can realize that by deepening our alliance.

On foreign policy, our relationship between South Korea and China remains frozen. It is a pity that we have not seen any summit meetings between Japan and South Korea or China, although more than one year has passed since PM Abe assumed office. South Korea is an important neighbor for us especially because we share fundamental values such as democracy, rule of law and a market economy. Both of us are also close allies to the US, and we must cooperate very closely with each other and with the US. This is especially true should something critical happen in North Korea. Having an untested, inexperienced, 31-year old inherit the leadership position who is trying to consolidate his dictatorial powers causes great concern. We must be prepared in case anything imminently dreadful would occur.

During the DPJ Administration, North Korea sank the South Korean warship, the "Chonan", and shelled the South Korean island of Yonpyondo. In response to these incidents, Japan and the United States immediately supported South Korea and helped to deter further North Korean provocation. Most importantly, we should not forget what China did during this time, which was to support the position of the North Koreans. This case very well illustrates the crucial significance of maintaining a strong trilateral cooperation among Japan, the US and South Korea for the security of the North East Asia region.

The DPJ Administration also placed much value on the relationship with South Korea and addressed some key bilateral issues as follows:

1) We made it very clear that the Takeshima Islands constitute an integral part of Japanese territory;

2) We adhered to two key statements on historical matters: the "Murayama Statement" in which Japan expressed apology for our colonial rule, and the "Kono Statement" in which we addressed the issues related to what is called "Comfort Women";

3) At the same time, key officials in the Administration such as the Prime Minister, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, and the Foreign Minister refrained from visiting the Yasukuni Shrine where class A war criminals are collectively honored; and

4) We also committed to make further efforts towards addressing the "Comfort Women" issue from a humanitarian perspective, while we firmly maintained our position that this issue had already been resolved by the Treaty on Basic Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea.

It is my hope that without further delay, leaders of Japan and South Korea meet one another to re-establish and re-strengthen our relationship, especially from a strategic perspective.

Recently, two of Prime Minister Abe's top aides made statements like these:

Although the US Government said they were disappointed with Prime Minister Abe's visit to Yasukuni Shrine, no one under the Republican Administrations had made such misinterpretation or tried to find fault there. It is rather the Japanese side, which was disappointed by the Americans. The US is getting afraid of saying the right things to China. Americans said they are disappointed because they needed some excuses for China. Why the U.S. does not show more respect to their important ally like Japan.

I don't agree with those people. What I am reminded of here is the words of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that "there are no friend or foe in diplomacy, there is only the interest of states." An alliance is formulated not out of charitable consideration. Parties to the alliance must understand respective national interests and respect them. The US-Japan alliance is, regardless of whatever party is on the ruling side, a crucially important bilateral relationship. Of course, the interests of alliance partners may conflict with each other. But what is most important is keeping our internal conflicts private and between ourselves and not allow others to view our disagreements. Behind the scenes, we might fiercely argue with each other, but still we should still showcase our strong bond to outsiders. We have to understand precisely, which country would benefit from a worsening of the Japan-US relationship.

Next, I would like to touch upon our relationship with China. This relationship is also a strategically important one. Again, I wish that the Japanese leader will meet his Chinese counterpart as soon as possible, just as I wished in the case of the Japan-Korea relationship. That being said, I would like to briefly share with you the historical context of the Senkaku Islands so that both Japan and the US can have a common understanding on this issue vis-à-vis China.

The Senkaku Islands were incorporated into Japanese territory in January 1895 via a cabinet decision, after Japan carefully observed the situation for ten preceding years and confirming that there was no conflicting influence or rule from any other country. There is no doubt that the Senkaku Islands constitute an integral part of Japanese territory. Around 1970, China started to claim the islands belonged to them. Coincidently, China's claims came only after the UN made public that there might be underground resources (such as oil and gas) embedded in the surrounding ocean area. Before this time, even the Communist Party's official gazette, The People's Daily referred to Senkaku as "Senkaku of Okinawa" and the maps the Chinese government published did not include Senkaku.

I recall my first meeting with Secretary Clinton after I assumed the post of foreign minister when she clearly assured me that, "Senkaku is within the application of Article 5 of the Japan-US Security Treaty". This was the first statement of its kind made by the Obama Administration. Whenever I think of this, it renews my respect and appreciation to Secretary Clinton and reminds me of the sincere efforts of Assistant Secretary Kurt Campbell to make this happen.

On the Senkaku issue, China claims that:

1) Japan should take back our decision of nationalizing the Senkaku islands;
2) Japan should confirm that there are territorial disputes here, and;
3) Japan and China should jointly develop this area.

However, let me make it very clear that Japan would never ever agree on such claims. The DPJ Administration only acquired ownership of the Senkaku Islands out of the concerns that the quiet control over the islands, (in other words, the status quo) might be undermined by the then Tokyo Governor's statement that the Tokyo regional government might purchase the land and cause unnecessary friction. China's claim that Japan nationalized the Senkaku Islands to reinforce our effective control over the islands has no basis in fact. Japan has and continued to maintain sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands and this was only a transfer of ownership of the islands from a private Japanese owner to the central government. I believe it is important that we persistently work on this issue, while acknowledging that China has a different viewpoint.

In addition, China has also promulgated other problematic issues such as an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) which China unilaterally set in place, advancing an ever increasing military budget, and continuing their reckless behavior in South China Sea where they could impede and threaten the freedom of navigation on the high seas. In concert with the US and other like-minded countries, we need to say what we have to say in a firm and confident manner. We must continue to communicate and have dialogue with China and work with them to promote a peaceful rise. There is a saying that overall agreement matters more and smaller difference matters less. I very much appreciate the broader perspectives this saying includes and with that in mind, I would like to improve and strengthen our relationship with China.

Let me also offer a few words on Japan-US relations. Needless to say, for Japan, the US is the most important partner and ally in the international community. More than that, not only is this alliance important for our bilateral relationship, but it is extremely crucial for the stability and prosperity of the entire Asia Pacific region; sort of a public good. Many people in this region who share our fundamental values have high hopes for the continuation of our strong alliance. Given the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the rise of China, and a certain level of instability in the domestic politics of various areas within Asia, both Japan and the US need to closely cooperate with each other and further deepen our alliance. From this perspective, I would like to offer three of my thoughts here.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Prime Minister of Japan's Schedule December 1-4

December 4, 2011

AM

08:23 JR Tokyo Station
08:30 Depart Tokyo Station on Nozomi Shinkansen #17
10:50 Arrive at JR Kyoto Station
11:26 Kyoto International Conference Hall, Sakyo- Ward, Kyoto

PM
12:33 Tea ceremony by Mr. Soshitsu Sen, Ura Senke Tea Master, Mr. Somavia, Director- General of International Labour Organization (ILO); Mr. Gutierrez, Deputy Prime Minister of East Timor.
01:11 Mr. Nobuaki Koga, President of Japanese Trade Union Confederation; Ms. Komiyama, Minister of Health, Labor, and Welfare; Mr. Ota, Councilor of the Ministry of Health Labor, and Welfare.
01:57 Everyone leaves
02:50 Attend and gave a speech at the ILO Asia and the Pacific Regional Meeting
03:35 Mr. Keiji Yamada, Governor of Kyoto
04:14 JR Kyoto Station
04:35 Depart Kyoto Station on Nozomi Shinkansen #376
06:56 Arrive at Tokyo Station
07:12 The residence of PM

December 3, 2011

AM

Spend the morning at the residence of PM

PM

05:56 Attend an ordinary meeting of Seikei Club (Politics and Economics Club) at Hotel Le Port Koujimachi ib Hirakawa-cho, Tokyo
06:24 The residence of PM

December 2, 2011

AM

07:52 Parliament
08:16 Ministerial meeting
08:47 The office of PM
09:52 Parliament
10:14 The Lower House Foreign Affairs Committee


PM
01:01 The Office of PM
01:04 Mr. Shinichiro Furumoto, DPJ Lower House member
01:24 Mr Ishii, Chairperson of the Upper House Budget Committee; Mr. Saito, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
01:54 Parliament
02:02 The Lower House Plenary Session
02:11 The office of PM
02:18 Mr. Koichiro Watanabe, DPJ Lower House member
02:47 Mr. Furukawa, Minister of State for National Policy
02:58 Mr. Maehara, chairperson of DPJ Policy Research Council
03:43 Mr. Maehara leaves
04:30 Mr. Tezuka, Special Advisor to PM
04:52 Mr. Nakagawa, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
05:41 Ms. Clark, UNDP Administrator
06:01 Mr. Fujimura, Chief Cabinet Secretary; Mr. Edano, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry; Mr. Tatsuo Hirano, Minister for Reconstruction in the response to the East Japan Earthquake; Mr. Hosono, Minister of State for the Nuclear Power Policy and Administration; Mr. Nakagawa, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; Mr. Saito, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
06:47 The residence of PM

December 1, 2011

AM

08:59 The office of PM
09:11 Zhao Qizheng, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
09:25 Mr. Saito and Mr. Nagahama, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretaries; Mr. Tezuka, Special Advisor to
Prime Minister 
09:57 Mr. Azumi, Minister of Finance; Mr. Katsu, Administrative Vice-Minister of Finance; Mr. Manago, Director-General of the Budget Bureau, Ministry of Finance; Mr. Tanaka Director-General of Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance.
10:55 Mr. Sugiyama, Director-General of Asia and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
11:25 Mr. Ritsuo Hosokawa and Shoichi Kondo, DPJ Lower House members; Mr. Yuji Fujimoto, DPJ Upper House member.
11:50 Everyone leaves

PM 
12:53 Parliament
01:02 The Lower House Plenary Session
01:23 The office of PM
02:30 Mr. Uematsu, Head of Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office
03:15 Mr. Shimojo, Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Defense; Mr. Nishi, Director-General of the Bureau of Defense Policy, Ministry of Defense; Admiral Masahiko Sugimoto, Chief of Staff, Maritime Self-Defense Force
04:01 Mr. Shunsuke Hasegawa, Mayor of Nemuro, Hokkaido, and others
04:20 Mr. Fujimura, Chief Cabinet Secretary; Mr. Nagahama, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary; Mr. Tezuka, Special Advisor to PM
05:07 Mr. Fujimura leaves
05:30 Press conference
06:40 Mr. Tsuneo Nishida, Permanent Representative of Japan to the United Nations 07:04 The residence of

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Japan week continues

THE OKINAWA QUESTION: REGIONAL SECURITY, THE US-JAPAN ALLIANCE, AND FUTENMA. 9/19, 9:30am-4:00pm, Washington, DC. Sponsors: Sigur Center, GWU and Nansei Shoto Industrial Advancement. Speakers: Robert Sutter (George Washington University); Michael Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Akio Takahara (Tokyo University); Llewelyn Hughes (George Washington University); Keynote by Governor Hirokazu Nakaima of Okinawa; Mike Mochizuki (George Washington University); Akikazu Hashimoto (J. F. Oberlin University); Kazuhisa Ogawa (International Politics and Military Analyst); Michael O’Hanlon (Brookings Institution); Kurayoshi Takara (University of the Ryukyus).

RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY AND THE JAPAN-CHINA RELATIONS: FORESEEING THE RECOVERY OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY AFTER 3.11. 9/20, 10:00am-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: US-Japan Research Institute (USJI). Speakers: Dr. Junhua Wu, Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Chairwoman & Chief Economist, The Japan Research Institute (Shanghai), Council Member & Chief Sr. Economist, The Japan Research Institute Ltd.; Mr. Kiyoyuki Seguchi, Research Director, The Canon Institute for Global Studies; Dr. Yoshiaki Abe, USJI Operating Adviser, University Professor, Waseda University.

JAPAN'S FOREIGN POLICY UNDER THE DPJ: WHAT HAS CHANGED AND WHAT HAS NOT. 9/21, 10:30am-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsors: U.S.-Japan Research Institute (USJI), Waseda University Organization for Japan-US Studies (WOJUSS). Speakers: Dr. Takashi Terada, visiting Professor, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Adjunct Researcher, Waseda University Organization for Japan-US Studies, Adjunct Researcher, Organization for Asian Studies, Waseda University; Dr. Christopher W. Hughes, Professor of International Politics and Japanese Studies, Department of Politics and International Studies University of Warwick; Dr. Yoshiaki Abe, USJI Operating Adviser/University Professor, Waseda University.

ASIA’S RISING ENERGY AND RESOURCE NATIONALISM.
9/22, 9:00am-12:30pm, Washington, DC. Hosts: National Bureau of Asian Research and Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Speakers: Senator Lisa Murkowski (I-AL); Edward Chow, CSIS; Bernard Cole, National Defense University; Craig Gannett, The Henry M. Jackson Foundation, Davis Wright Tremaine; Yufan Hao, University of Macau; John Hempelmann, The Henry M. Jackson Foundation, Cairncross & Hempelmann; Mikkal Herberg, NBR.

ASSISTING AFGHANISTAN (AND THE UNITED STATES): JAPAN’S PEACEBUILDING AND NEW DONOR COOPERATION IN AFGHANISTAN. 9/22, 4:00-5:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Reischauer Center, SAIS. Speaker: Kuniko Ashizawa, visiting fellow at the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at SAIS.

JAPAN’S “PEACE” CONSTITUTION AT 65: TIME FOR A CHANGE? 9/22, 3:00-5:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Asia Program, Wilson Center (WWC). Speakers: Thomas U. Berger, Associate Professor of International Relations, Boston University; Christopher Hughes, Professor of International Politics and Japanese Studies, University of Warwick, U.K.; Craig Martin, Associate Professor of Law, Washburn University; Sabine Frühstück, Chair and Professor of Modern Japanese Cultural Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Japan Week in Washington

U.S. STRATEGY IN THE PACIFIC. 9/7, 2011, 2:00-3:00 pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: CSIS Southeast Asia Program. Speakers: Kurt M. Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; Ernie Bower Senior Advisor and Director, Southeast Asia Program.

THE US-JAPAN ALLIANCE AFTER 3-11. 9/7, 3:00–5:30pm, reception, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Speakers: Seiji Maehara, Former Foreign Minister; Yoshihide Soeya, Keio University; Yasuhisa Shiozaki, Former Chief Cabinet Secretary; Matake Kamiya, National Defense University; Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations; Michael J. Green, CSIS. 

NEW DIRECTIONS OF US-JAPAN HIGHER EDUCATION COOPERATION IN THE GLOBALIZING WORLD: IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE. 9/8, 4:00-5:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute. Speakers: Kazuo Kuroda, Professor, Waseda University; Dr. Saya Shiraishi, Professor, The University of Tokyo; Dr. N'dri Assie-Lumumba, Professor, Cornell University; Dr. James Williams, Associate Professor, George Washington University. 

RECONSTRUCTION AND BEYOND: THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND ITS IMPACT ON AN AGING JAPAN. 9/9, 10:00-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute. Speakers: Naoyuki Agawa, Vice Chair USJI, Vice President Keio University; Atsushi Seike, President, Member the Reconstruction Design Council in the Great East Japan Earthquake; Mark Ramseyer, Professor, Harvard University; Prof. John Creighton Campbell, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Michigan/Visiting Scholar, Institute of Gerontology Tokyo University.

RECONSTRUCTION AND BEYOND: THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS. 9/9, 2:30-4:15pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute and Sigur Center for Asian Studies, GWU. Speakers: Atsushi Seike, President, Keio University; Naoyuki Agawa, Keio University; Edward J. Lincoln, George Washington University.

JAPAN'S RECOVERY SIX MONTHS AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE, TSUNAMI AND NUCLEAR CRISIS. 9/9, 1:30-2:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: CNAPS, Brookings. Speakers: Richard Bush III, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies; Ichiro Fujisaki, ambassador of Japan to the United States.

TECHNOLOGIES AGAINST DISASTER. 9/12, 10:00am-Noon Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute. Speakers: Shuji, Hashimoto, Vice Chair, USJI, Vice President, Waseda University; Martin Buehler, iRobot Corporation.

US, JAPAN, AND CHINA TRILATERAL TRADE IMBROGLIO: WHAT IS AFTER THE EAST JAPAN GREAT EARTHQUAKE? 9/12, 3:00-5:00pm Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute. Speakers: Keiji Nakatsuji, Operating advisor, USJI, Professor Ritsumeikan University; Susumu Yamagami, Vice President, Ritsumeikan University; Hironori Sasada, Associate Professor, Ritsumeikan University; Dr. Mark S. Manger, Lecturer in International Political Economy, International Relations Department, London School of Economics. 

RESTORING LOCAL LIVES, CITIES AND REGIONS: LOOKING AT THE POST-DISASTER RESTORATION AND EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE PLANNING APPROACHES FOR THE FUTURE. 9/13, 1:00-3:00pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: U.S.-Japan Research Institute. Speakers: Takashi Ariga, Professor, Waseda University; Peter Bosselmann, Professor UC Berkeley; Dr. Eran Ben-Joseph, Professor Head, Joint Program in City Design & Development MIT School of Architecture + Planning. 

Monday, November 29, 2010

Kan: The marked man

With his support rate sliding into the danger zone of 26 and 27% in the latest Mainichi and Asahi polls, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan may not have long to go before he reaches the 19% that his predecessor Yukio Hatoyama hit before resigning.

This time though, it is neither the US base issue in Okinawa nor a personal money scandal that is doing him in; Kan is in deep trouble for a perceived serious mishandling of his entire portfolio. He has been slammed on foreign policy – particularly ineptness in dealing with the row with China over the Senkakus – for a collapsed domestic policy agenda, marked by a stalled legislature and a disappointing budget-waste screening, and for the outright foolishness of some members of his Cabinet, one of whom resigned under fire on Nov. 22.

The press is speculating about “domino resignations” of more gaffe-prone cabinet members. Already the Kan administration’s longevity is being questioned, with the tabloids screaming about a January or so dissolution of a deadlocked Diet.

Domestic debacles
Kan's fate may now be in the hands of his enemies: the opposition parties in the Diet and a unanimously hostile press which has been mercilessly pummeling Kan and his cabinet for allegedly bungling just about everything on the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) policy agenda. A much touted supplemental budget to stimulate the economy never passed the Upper House, which opposition parties control.
Budgets, however, can be enacted with only Lower House approval according to the Constitution.

Even the DPJ’s pride and joy, a televised series of budget screening exercises to eliminate waste of taxpayers’ money fell disappointingly far short of a much publicized goal to free up 4 trillion yen in hidden funds and is now being dismissed by critics as nothing more than a “political performance.”

The latest embarrassment for Kan has been a string of gaffes and goofs by members of his cabinet that infuriated the opposition camp, the press, and public opinion. Things came to a head on Monday, Nov. 22, when Justice Minister Minoru Yanagida, whose in-house remarks to supporters ridiculing Diet proceedings was leaked to the media, was forced by Kan to resign his seat.

The opposition threatened to file and pass a censure motion against Yanagida in the Upper House. Kan himself is under opposition fire for appointing an unqualified and inept person to a cabinet position. Yanagida admitted on appointment that he had no background in law, having dropped out of the science course in college to work as sushi chef and then for a steel company where he worked as a labor activist until entering politics 20 years ago.

The Yanagida case has been singled out by the press as exemplifying Kan’s inability to make quick decisions on critical issues. Kan has been slammed consistently in the polls as “lacking leadership” on the policy front. The Prime Minister dilly-dallied on what to do about the Justice Minister’s fate for days, letting the Diet fall into chaos. It was only apparently until his aides pushed him hard for a decision that he met with them on Nov. 21 to seal the fate of Yanagida, who had continued to tell the press that he would “hang in there” and not resign.

Kan is criticized for leaving much of the political management of his administration to others, especially his chief cabinet secretary, Yoshito Sengoku, who reportedly made key decisions in handling the Senkaku issue. But Sengoku is also under pressure from the opposition to resign for recently calling the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) an “instrument of violence,” terminology that harks back to the old socialist camp in Japan.

Over the weekend, on Nov. 20, the sports daily Nikkan Gendai – a fairly accurate bellwether of political trends – ominously predicted “domino resignations” that would include not just Yanagida – but also others like “shadow prime minister” Sengoku for their gaffes and affronts to the Diet.

In six days last week, six cabinet members have had to render apologies a total of 10 times for inappropriate words and deeds. Though the Gendai’s prediction may not come true, such speculation further underscores the scathing environment in which the Prime Minister is struggling in to survive. Appearing on TV last week, Kan looked weary, his usual smile gone from his face. His answers in the Diet seemed labored.

At any rate, though Yanagida has resigned, the opposition camp has not blinked. It has continue to use dilatory tactics before the Diet session ends on December 3. Having filed and passe censure motions against Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku and Ministry of Land and Transportation Sumio Mabuchi. Kan has shrugged off the moves, but the Diet remains gridlocked. Looking to the regular session of the Diet in January, the opposition may file and pass more censure motions against cabinet Ministers. They may also summon former DPJ secretary general Ichiro Ozawa to the Diet to testify on his money scandal. Commenting on the current state of Diet affairs, Nikkan Gendai on Nov. 23 said it all: “The DPJ is acting just like the LDP used to.”

Foreign policy failures
Kan’s troubles of course started with the Senkaku row with China, compounded by the leak of a video of the collision between the Chinese trawler and Japan Coast Guard cutters. It became worse when President Medvedev broke with tradition and officially visited one the four disputed northern islands taken by the former Soviet Union from Japan in the closing days of World War II. The ambassador to Russia was recalled in protest for several days, but there was no follow-up from the prime minister.

Sadly, even the children’s section of a major daily poked fun at Kan by running a cartoon showing
a weak and trembling Kan seemingly cowered by President Medvedev as they traded claims to the northern territories.

Kan’s performance at the G20 in Seoul and his hosting of the APEC conference in Yokohama, too, were generally panned by the press as lifeless and stilted. A telling photograph of his bilateral meeting at APEC with China’s President Hu Jintao shows Kan hunched over his briefing folder, which he always seems to carry, reading out talking points to an obviously bored Hu. In an interview, former close Diet colleague Shusei Tanaka said that Kan did not have the mettle to be a prime minister.

Alliance bright spot
Sunday’s headlines in the conservative Yomiuri on Nov. 21 about a “deepening of the US-Japan alliance” may have been the only good news for the Kan administration in a long time. The daily, which has been a constant critic of the DPJ government’s alleged slights to the alliance, trumpeted that progress has been made in bilateral talks in Washington toward a joint security declaration next spring. The statement reportedly would include a new set of “common strategic objectives” (the former set was issued in 2005) that would specifically deal with China’s maritime push into waters near Japan.

As if to underscore the new security emphasis, Yomiuri and other papers featured photos of Chinese patrol ships cruising near the Senkaku Islands where they were warned away by Japanese Coast Guard vessels.

North Korea provided more cement for the US-Japan Alliance. The latest provocative act, an unprecedented shelling of a South Korean island near disputed waters, killed two soldiers and two civilians, while devastating a small village.

That does not mean that alliance affairs will now go smoothly for Kan. Following the Nov. 28 gubernatorial election in Okinawa, in which the LDP incumbent won, he must soon make a meaningful decision on the Futenma relocation agreement. This is likely to trigger another round of bickering between the DPJ government and that prefecture's citizens that continue to demand that the base be moved outside of Okinawa. Although this situation takes tact and patience, it appears that the only tool that Kan has in reserve is a panic button.

LDP not gaining
The press has already begun speculating about the possibility of the Diet in regular session being so blocked by opposition intransigence that Kan would have to resign his post (in favor of Seiji Maehara) or dissolve the Lower House for a snap election. A January scenario is predicted by some magazines.
Even former prime minister Hatoyama in an interview hinted at a spring dissolution of the Diet. Such a worst case scenario as a general election, however, would not necessarily be an automatic victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The former ruling party now leads the opposition camp and controls the Upper House. Even though the DPJ is losing favor with the public, the LDP has not benefited from the shift. In the Asahi’s latest poll, the LDP is indeed a point or so ahead of the DPJ in public support, but each party is only at the 16% range, far below their traditional levels.

Almost 60% of the electorate – a whopping percentage – do not support any party. These independent voters have been willing to switch parties in general elections and are responsible for the see-sawing of election results in recent years. If a snap election were to be called, it is unclear whether one party or the other would be the clear winner or loser. Indeed, a host of small parties that have proliferated in recent years might be the beneficiaries, further gumming up the political works in Japan.

Dr William Brooks
APP Senior Fellow