Sunday, February 9, 2025

Asia Policy Monday Events, February 10, 2025

2025 WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TRADE CONFERENCE. 2/10-11
, 9:00am-1:00pm (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: Washington International Trade Association. Fee

MARRIAGE EQUALITY IN JAPAN: LGBT COUPLES ON THE VERGE OF FULL(ER) EQUALITY? 2/10, 6:30-8:00pm (JST); 4:30-6:00am (EST). HYBRID. Sponsor: ICAS, Temple University Japan. Speakers: Makiko Terahara, Director, Marriage For All Japan; Robert Dujarric, Co-director, ICAS, Temple University, Japan Campus. 

THE U.S.-INDIA PARTNERSHIP UNDER TRUMP 2.0. 2/10, 3:00-6:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Observer Research Foundation America. Speakers: Lindsey Ford, former Senior Director for South Asia, National Security Council; Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert on South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace; Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, The Hudson Institute; Amy Hariani, Senior Advisor, U.S.-India Business Council; Richard Rossow, Senior Advisor and Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics, Center for Strategic & International Studies; Anand Shah, Partner, The Asia Group. 

BOOK TALK: BOOK AND DAGGER: HOW SCHOLARS AND LIBRARIANS BECAME THE UNLIKELY SPIES OF WORLD WAR II. 2/10, 4:00pm–5:30pm (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Elyse Graham, Historian, Professor, Stony Brook University. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3WOADod

Friday, February 7, 2025

Who is Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

Shigeru ISHIBA (石破 茂)
Office of the Prime Minister


68 (February 4, 1957)
12 terms in House of Representatives [Lower House] (Tottori 1), Hereditary, LDP.

Past Positions: Minister for Regional Revitalization (Abe Cabinet). Minister of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries (Aso Cabinet), Minister of Defense (Fukuda Cabinet), Director General of
Defense Agency (Minister of State, Koizumi Cabinet), LDP Secretary General (Abe
administration), Chairperson of LDP Policy Research Council (under LDP President Sadakazu
Tanigaki).

His LDP presidential campaign slogans were: “Protecting Japan” and “Protecting the people.” In
an exclusive September 25, 2024 article for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba said that his
administration “aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as
an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance....It is my mission to raise the Japan-US
alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance.”

Keio University (1979). Ranked first in the All-Japan Legal Studies Student League in his
second year.
Worked for Mitsui Bank (currently Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation) until 1983.
Protégé of Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and worked for the “Shadow Shogun’s” faction until
he ran for the Diet in 1986.

In 2014, he turned down Prime Minister Abe’s offer to be Minister in charge of Security
Legislation, which irritated Abe as it suggested that he did not support Abe’s defense policies.
Ishiba’s subsequent criticism of the Prime Minister isolated him within the Abe-dominated LDP,
causing Ishiba’s faction to shrink. He was an outspoken opponent of many of Abe’s policies.

He calls himself a military otaku (obsessive person) who likes making plastic models of fighter
planes and warships and is also a “railway geek.”

In 2018 at a visit to the Kurayoshi Circular Theater Figure Museum (Kurayoshi, Tottori
Prefecture), he was asked to wear a Majin Buu [魔ま人じんブウ Majin Bū, literally Demon
Person Boo] cosplay costume. And he did, to the surprise of the museum curator who said “We
asked him to wear the costume in a semi-surprise way, but he accepted with a smile. He has a
soft side.”

Protestant, United Church of Christ. Sunday school teacher.
However, Ishiba is a member of the Jokokai, an association of 64 Diet members who are believers in the Jodo sect of Buddhism and he is recommended by the Jodo sect during elections.
Like many LDP Diet members, he is also a member of the Shinto Political League Diet Members' Conference (a nativist, animist Japanese belief). On August 24,2024, after visiting Watari Shrine in Yazu Town, Tottori Prefecture, he announced his candidacy for the LDP presidency in front of the shrine building, saying the following: "This is the land of my ancestors. When I was a child, we had summer festivals here. It was really lively. Children and the elderly were all smiling. Now there are no people here and the summer festivals are no longer held, but I want to bring back a lively Japan where everyone can live with a smile."

Well-known cat lover and whisperer. 🐈

Conservative Nationalist Parliamentary Leagues: Nippon Kaigi [Japan Conference], Shinto, Yasukuni, Unification Church connections.

>Foreign Policy adviser: Takashi Kawakami [川上高司], who advocates for the creation of an Asian version of NATO, is supported by Happy Science and was a faculty member at Happy Science University. (Happy Science is a Japanese "new religion" that is influential in the U.S. MAGA circles. It is a major funder of CPAC and client of Matt Schlapp. President Trump has spoken at their events and praised them.) Kawakami teaches at Takushoku University, a conservative stronghold. In 2022, he founded the Japan Society for Foreign Policy Studies.

Social Media
Official Site: https://www.ishiba.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ishibashigeru/
Twitter: https://x.com/shigeruishiba
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ishibashigeru/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ishibach

Thursday, February 6, 2025

The stress of the minority party

Resolving Domestic Instability with International Diplomacy

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Because the LDP is a minority party in Japan’s House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba’s administration lacks a free hand in Diet procedures. Rare phenomena, in which the opposition parties take the initiative, have now occurred in the discussion over FY 2025 budget bill. Ishiba hopes to reverse this negative trend by building close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump in a summit meeting in Washington, DC scheduled for February 7. Given recent dramatic changes in U.S. foreign policy generally, it is impossible to predict the outcome of that meeting.

In the meantime, it is likely that the Ishiba administration will revise the pending budget bill, which was originally submitted to the Diet in January. The revisions may include requests from the opposition parties. Ishiba has not ruled it out. “I do not exclude any possibility to accept proposals from a party, if it offers voting for our budget bill with condition of reviewing a part of the budget,” said Ishiba in an interview with the weekly magazine, Sunday Mainichi.

The opposition parties have some proposals that have been part of their platforms for several months. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) wants to raise threshold for imposing income tax to annual income of ¥1.78 million. The cost of this relief is estimated at 7 to 8 trillion yen. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) calls for free tuition in every high school, which would cost of 600 billion yen. On the other side, the leading opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), proposes cutting 7 trillion yen from the budget. Yet the CDPJ also seeks cuts in the gasoline tax cut, free school lunch, and better treatment for nursery workers.

Ishiba needs to consider which requests he will honor, but revisions to the budget bill will be necessary in any case. It has been over 30 years since the government has withdrawn a budget bill and resubmitted a revised one. In 1991, revisions were necessary to enable Japan to make a financial contribution to support multinational forces in the Gulf War.

In addition to forcing revisions to the budget bill, the DCPJ has kept the slush fund scandal in the news. At the behest of Chairman Jun Azumi, a leader of the CDPJ, the Committee for the Budget in the Lower House voted to require the former accounting manager of the Abe faction to appear at a hearing on the scandal. (He has refused.) Although this kind of hearing typically is set by the Committee’s unanimous approval, Azumi made a point of taking a vote for the first time in 51 years. Azumi also introduced a new system of intensive discussion on the budget in which specific questions are posed to each ministry.

These surges of the opposition power may further erode public confidence on leadership of Ishiba. It is good news for Ishiba that he has an opportunity to meet with Trump, an opportunity much longed for on Ishiba’s part.

“We will talk about how to align the national interests of both countries to bring Japan-US alliance to greater heights,” said Ishiba in the discussions of the Lower House budget committee. Ishiba hopes to reaffirm in the meeting the importance of the rule of law based on the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Ishiba also hopes that the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to Article 5 of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty which guarantees that the U.S. will defend Japan, including Senkaku Islands. Ordinarily, the U.S. would reaffirm this commitment as a matter of course, but it is now not a certainty. A failure to do so would have ramifications across all of Asia and the Pacific, not just in Japan.

In any event, economic issues seem to be the priority in the U.S. with Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on products from Canada, China, and Mexico – although these seem to be a moving target. Trump later agreed to a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Stressing Japan’s growing investment in the U.S. or the purchase of LNG gas from the U.S., Ishiba will try to stay clear of any new and onerous tariffs on Japanese goods.

The opposition parties in Japan demand that Ishiba to talk to Trump about his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization, as well as his denial of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Ishiba, however, is unlikely to make any progress on any of these issues. Ishiba’s highest priority at the summit will be to pave the way for a frank, personal relationship.

Monday, February 3, 2025

No ordinary Diet

The Ordinary Session of the Diet Starts

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 27, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

The 2025 ordinary session of the Diet began January 24. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered the annual policy speech, in which he emphasized government decentralization – the transfer of power from Tokyo to local communities. Regional revitalization looks to be the highest priority in the Ishiba administration, surpassing diplomacy, the economy, and political reform. The 150-day session of the Diet, after which the Upper House election is scheduled, will be a stern test for Ishiba.

In the traditional policy speech to open an ordinary session of the Diet, the prime minister discusses the political direction of the administration for the year ahead. The nature of the speech is different from that of an opening speech in an extraordinary session. That speech deals with the temporary priority of policies. Thus, in the speech to the extraordinary session last November, Ishiba addressed three policies on his agenda -- diplomacy and security, the revitalization of Japan, and disaster prevention.

But in his January 24 speech, Ishiba focused instead on regional revitalization, devoting 30% of the speech to it. Ishiba has named his project for regional revitalization “Reiwa version of remodeling the Japanese archipelago” and its goal is to achieve a “pleasant Japan.” He had described this vision earlier in his first press conference of the year on January 6.

“Remodeling the Japanese archipelago” is a concept that originated in the Showa era, which was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka’s campaign policy for the LDP presidential election in June 1972. Tanaka was – not coincidentally -- the political mentor of Ishiba. The novelist Taichi Sakaiya promoted “pleasant Japan” in his book Japan in the Third Time (2019), following “strong Japan” and “prosperous Japan.” Sakaiya served for Keizo Obuchi Cabinet as the Minister in charge of the Economic Planning Agency between 1998 and 2000.

Obuchi was one of “the seven secretaries” in the former Noboru Takeshita faction. Takeshita succeeded to the great political power that Tanaka built. Ishiba can be said to follow in the footsteps of the Tanaka group’s efforts to decentralize the governance of Japan. This approach is the opposite of the goal of greater centralization embraced by another political stream in the Liberal Democratic Party that included such prime ministers as Jun-ichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe.

In his policy speech, Ishiba proposed a new residential registration system in which urban residents register with a local government to create greater connections to rural communities. He will encourage young men and women in any age return to their hometowns by creating job opportunities there. Coordination among industries, public offices and educational institutes will be essential to this revitalization program.

The other policies in the speech were ones that Ishiba had already proposed or that previous administrations had pursued. As part of his economic policies, Ishiba will propose wage hikes at a higher level than increases in consumer prices and tax exemptions for small amount of personal asset management, including such financial products as NISA or iDeco. Both of these were the brainchildren of the Fumio Kishida administration.

Ishiba’s security policy reflects his concern for better treatment of personnel in the Self-Defense Forces. “We will enhance our defense system, aiming at deterring invasion to our country by possessing independent capability for deny and remove the invasion,” said Ishiba in his policy speech. Ishiba also hopes to lighten the burden on Okinawa of hosting US Forces. Ishiba plans to raise defense issues with US President Donald Trump at their summit meeting.

As to the reform of a system that enabled the slush fund scandal of some factions in the LDP, Ishiba urged all the parties in the Diet to discuss public financial support for political activities, donations from companies, and candidate expenditures – but he did not present his own proposals.

The current ordinary session will be followed by the election of the Upper House, which takes place once every three years. Upper House members have six-year terms, so half of the house will be up for reelection. There is a tacit agreement among lawmakers that the ordinary session in a year of an Upper House election will not be extended. It is likely that the session will close on June 22 and the Upper House election will be held on July 20.

Ishiba is under considerable time pressure to corral enough votes in the Lower House, through negotiation with the opposition parties, to pass the FY 2025 budget bill by March 2, which is the deadline for the bill to automatically pass the Upper House before the new fiscal year begins on April 1. The Constitution of Japan says that a budget is approved as decided by the Lower House, when the Upper House fails in taking final action within 30 days from receiving of it.

According to an agreement among parties, Ishiba also must bring the issue of political contributions by companies and organizations to a conclusion by the end of March. If he fails to do so, the opposition parties will have cause to submit a no-confidence resolution to the Lower House at the end of the session. Such a resolution can ignite a snap election of the Lower House on the same day of the Upper House election.

Asia Policy Events Monday, February 3, 2025

AI AT WORK: BUILDING AND EVALUATING TRUST. 2/3-4,
HYBRID. Sponsor: Institute for Trustworthy AI in Law and Society (TRAILS)

THE STATE OF THE NATION PROJECT: A COMPREHENSIVE DISCUSSION ON AMERICA’S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES. 2/3, 10:00-11:30am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Douglas N. Harris, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brown Center on Education Policy, The Brookings Institution, Professor, Chair, Department of Economics, Tulane; Gary Hoover, Executive Director, Murphy Institute; Ariel Kalil, Daniel Levin, Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy; Kiron Skinner, Taube Family Chair of International Relations and Politics, Pepperdine School of Public Policy; Scott Winship, Director, Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, AEI. 

JORDAN AND THE ANNEXATION OF THE WEST BANK. 2/3, 11:00am–Noon (EST). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Bruce Riedel, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow, Quincy Institute; Steven Simon, Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute. 

GEOPOLITICS OF AID: CHINESE, RUSSIAN, AND AMERICAN COVID-19 ASSISTANCE. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors: George Washington University. Speaker: Dr. Mariya Y. Omelicheva, Professor of Strategy, National Defense University. 

NEW FRONTIERS IN JAPANESE PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH. 2/3, Noon-1:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies, Harvard University. Speakers: Saki Kuzushima, Postdoctoral Fellow, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University; Hirofumi Miwa, Visiting Scholar, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University and Professor, Gakushuin University. 

THE GREENS’ DILEMMA: BUILDING TOMORROW’S CLIMATE INFRASTRUCTURE TODAY. 2/3, 1:00-2:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Environmental Law Institute. Speakers: J.B. Ruhl, David Daniels Allen Distinguished Chair in Law, Joe B. Wyatt Distinguished University Professor, Vanderbilt; James Salzman, Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law, UC Santa Barbara. 

NAVIGATING BURDEN-SHARING: US ALLIES IN NORTHEAST ASIA. 2/3, 6:00-7:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Dr. Kuyoun Chung, Associate Professor, Political Science, Kangwon National University; Michael Mazza, Senior Director, Project 2049 Institute; William Chou, Deputy Director, Japan Chair, Hudson Institute; Connor Fiddler, Associate Deputy Director, Asia Program, FPRI. 

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT IN JAPANESE DOCUMENTARY FILMS. 2/3
, 7:00pm (JST) 5:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Rikkyo University. Speaker: Ayelet Zohar, Tel Aviv University. 

THE ART OF POWER: MY STORY AS AMERICA'S FIRST WOMAN SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. 2/3
, 7:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Truman Library Institute. Speaker: Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3PGieG2

BOOK LAUNCH: HUMANITARIAN INTERNATIONALISM UNDER EMPIRE
. 2/3, 7:30-8:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Modern Japan History Association. Speaker: author Michiko Suzuki, Project Researcher, Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4aBCUZx