Monday, November 22, 2021

This Week on Asia November 20-26, 2021

11/22, 3:00am (EST), 5:00pm (JST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS), Temple University Japan. Speaker: Akira Igata, Executive Director, Center for Rule-Making Strategies, Tama University; Moderator: Robert Dujarric, Co-Director, ICAS, Temple University Japan. 

BIRTH OF THE STATE: THE PLACE OF THE BODY IN CRAFTING MODERN POLITICS. 11/22, 4:00-6:30pm (CEST), 10:00am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Speakers: Charlotte Epstein, Author, Senior Researcher, DIIS; Finn Stepputat, Senior Researcher, DIIS; Robin May Schott, Senior Researcher, DIIS; Stefano Guzzini, Senior Researcher, DIIS; Rune Lykkeberg, Editor-in-chief, Information.  PURCHASE BOOK:

DEBATE: “China’s growing assertiveness is mainly driven by a sense of insecurity and perceived threats.” 11/22, 1:30- 2:15pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Michael Swaine, Director, East Asia Program, Quincy Institute; Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair, Asian Studies, Walsh School of Foreign Service, GU; Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project, CSIS. 

THE GLOBAL STATE OF DEMOCRACY REPORT - GLOBAL LAUNCH. 11/22, 5:00-7:00pm (CET), 11:00am-1:00pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Speakers: Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships; Dr. Jürgen Zattler, Director-General for International Development Policy, 2030 Agenda; Dr. Seema Shah, Head of Democracy Assessment Unit, International IDEA; Dr. Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General, International IDEA; Christophe Deloire, Secretary General, Reporters Without Borders; Samson Itodo, Executive Director, Yiaga Africa; Mu Sochua, former Vice-President, Cambodia National Rescue Party; Moderator: Massimo Tommasoli, Director of Global Programmes, International IDEA. 

INDO-PACIFIC EMPIRE: CHINA, AMERICA AND THE CONTEST FOR THE WORLD’S PIVOTAL REGION. 11/22, 4:00-5:15pm (EST), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Speakers: author Rory Medcalf, Head, National Security College, Australia National University; Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, CNAS; Dr. Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS; Thomas Wright, Director, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution; Moderated by: Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer, CNAS.

FORGING THAILAND – US CLIMATE AND ENERGY PARTNERSHIP. 11/23, 8:00-9:15am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: East-West Center in Washington (EWCW). Speakers: H.E. Manasvi Srisodapol, Ambassador of Thailand to the United States of America; Mr. Kulit Sombatsiri, Permanent Secretary, Thailand Ministry of Energy; Mr. Harry R. Kamian, Acting Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Energy Resources, United States Department of State; Mr. Mark W. Menezes, former Deputy Secretary of Energy, United States Department of Energy; Ms. Verinda Fike, Regional Manager for the Indo-Pacific, US Trade and Development Agency; Mr. Noppadol Dej-Udom, Chief Sustainability Officer, Charoen Pokphand Group Company Limited (C.P. Group); Ms. Courtney Weatherby, Research Analyst and Deputy Director, Energy, Water, and Sustainability, Southeast Asia, Stimson Center; H.E. Piper Campbell, Former Head of the US Mission to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) & Adjunct Professorial Lecturer, American University.

11/23, Noon-1:00pm (EST), ONLINE. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center; John Lee, Senior Fellow, Hudson; Moderator: Bryan Clark, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson. 

A CONVERSATION WITH JAMES MULVENON. 11/23, 12:30-2:00pm (EST), Washington, DC. Sponsor: Asian Studies Program, Walsh School of Foreign Service, GU. Speakers: James Mulvenon, Director of Intelligence Integration, SOS International; Moderator: Michael Green, Professor of International Affairs, Walsh School of Foreign Service, GU. 

CHINA–US COMPETITION IN AI: DESTABILISING AND INTENSIFYING. 11/24 9:00-10.30am (EST), 10:00-11.30pm (SGT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: IISS. Speakers: Dr James Johnson, author Artificial Intelligence & the Future of Warfare: USA, China, and strategic stability (2021); Dr Greg Austin leads the Cyber, Space and Future Conflict Programme at IISS and is based in the Singapore office; Meia Nouwensleads IISS research on China's Digital Silk Road.

PARTNERS IN DETERRENCE: US NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ALLIANCES IN EUROPE AND ASIA. 11/24, 8:30-9:30pm (EST), 11/25 12:30–1:30pm (AEDT) ONLINE. Sponsor: ANU College of Asia & the Pacific. Speakers: author Emeritus Professor Hugh White, Australian National University; Professor Caitlin Byrne, Griffith University; Professor Andrew O'Neil, Griffith University; Professor Stephan Frühling, Australian National University. 

STATE OF DEMOCRACY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC REPORT LAUNCH. 11/24, 6:00-7:30pm (CET), Noon-1:30pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Speakers: H.E. Audrey Tang, Digital Minister of Taiwan; Leena Rikkila Tamang, Regional Director, Asia and the Pacific, International IDEA; Dr. Edward Aspinall, Professor, Coral Bell School of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University; Dr. Imelda Deinla, Associate Professor, Ateneo School of Government, Philippines; Dr. Nematullah Bizhan, former government official of Afghanistan; Moderator: Dr. Mark Evans, Professor, Center for Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra. 

11/24, 9:00am-5:30pm (CEST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Speakers: Thant Myint-U, Historian, Conservationist, Former Danish Presidential Adviser; Moe Thuzar, Fellow, and Co-coordinator of the Myanmar Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore; Jason Tower, Country Director, Burma, United States Institute of Peace (USIP); Marco Bünte, Professor at the Institute of Asian Politics and Society, University of Erlangen- Nürnberg ; Morten Pedersen, Senior Lecturer, University of South Wales; Michael Lidauer, Associate of the Myanmar Institute; Lisbeth Pilegaard, Director, Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy (DIPD); Myat The Thitsar, PhD Candidate, University of Massachusetts -Lowell; Mikael Gravers, Emeritus Associate Professor, Aarhus University. 

PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR EXPANDING TAIWAN'S ECONOMIC SPACE AND ACCESSION INTO COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP). 11/24, 9:00-10:30am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Global Taiwan Institute (GTI). Speakers: Terry Cooke, Founder, China Partnership of Greater Philadelphia; Shihoko Goto, Deputy Director for Geoeconomics, Wilson Center; Amb. Michael Reilly, former Director, British Trade and Cultural Office, Taipei; Riley Walters, Deputy Director, Japan Chair, Hudson; Moderator: Russell Hsiao, Executive Director, GTI. 

CORPORATE SUBSIDIES BY CHINA, THE EU, AND THE US: TIME FOR REFORMS? 11/25, 5:00am (EST), 6:00pm (SGT),WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hinrich Foundation. Speakers: co-author, Simon Evenett, Founder, Global Trade Alert; Weihuan Zhou, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, UNSW Sydney, Australia; Gary Sampson, Professor of International Trade, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne, Australia; Moderator: Kaewkamol (Karen) Pitakdumrongkit, Deputy Head, Centre for Multilateralism Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. 

THE GLOBAL STATE OF DEMOCRACY REPORT - STOCKHOLM PRESENTATION. 11/25, 3:00-5:00pm (CET), 9:00-11:00am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Speakers: H.E. Ann Linde, Foreign Affairs Minister, Sweden; Dr. Seema Shah, Head of Democracy Assessment, International IDEA; Benedicte Berner, Civil Rights Defenders; Erik Halkjaer, Reporters Without Borders; Birgitta Ohlsson, National Democratic Institute; Moderator: Dr. Miguel Angel Lara Otaola, Senior Democracy Assessment Specialist, International IDEA. 

10 MONTHS AFTER THE MILITARY COUP – WHERE IS MYANMAR HEADING? 11/25 DAY 2. 11/25, 10:00am-Noon (CEST), WEBINAR. Speakers: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Speakers: Christian Lund, Professor, Copenhagen University; Kirsten McConnachie, Professor, University of East Anglia; Elisabeth Rhoads, Postdoc, Lund University; Anders Baltzer Jørgensen, Emeritus Researcher and previous Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Annika Pohl Harrisson, Postdoc Researcher, Aarhus University; Susanne Kempel, Researcher and independent consultant; John Nielsen, Senior Analyst at DIIS and Former Danish Ambassador to Myanmar; Helene Maria Kyed, Head of Research Unit, DIIS. 

Sunday, November 21, 2021

Biden And Xi Move Back From The Brink

By Daniel Sneider, Lecturer, International Policy at Stanford University and APP Member
Toyo Keizai, November 18, 2021

The three-and-half-hour virtual summit meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not, and could not, solve the fundamental problems that have driven the two great powers toward confrontation. But both men clearly wanted to challenge the misperception that they are on the brink of conflict, and to prevent an unintended escalation of tensions that might become impossible to manage.

Nowhere was that goal more visible than on Taiwan, the one issue that poses the greatest risk of drawing China and the U.S. into war. Xi and Biden spent considerable time discussing Taiwan, according to the U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Both men carefully restated their long-held positions – for China, strong opposition to any steps that would move Taiwan toward a declaration of independence. For the U.S., a line is drawn against “any effort to shape Taiwan’s future by anything other than peaceful means,” as Sullivan told the Brookings Institution after the meeting.

But Sullivan notably repeated the American adherence to the existence of “One China” and to the series of joint statements going back decades that reiterate this position, a message clearly meant for the Chinese audience. The summit discussion aimed, he said, at avoiding any “destabilizing actions” by either side, to “manage risk and ensure that competition doesn’t veer into conflict,” to avoid unintended conflicts that arise out of miscommunication.

“Both sides fear it has been spinning out of control -- the mutual demonization and mirror-image tit for tat escalation -- and want to put a floor under it,” says Robert Manning of the Atlantic Council, a former senior official, and Asia expert. “I think the idea was to give the bureaucracies in both nations a mandate from the top to seek mechanisms to manage differences and also where to cooperate – climate, Iran, maybe North Korea and Afghanistan all have some overlap of interests.”

The step back from confrontation may have influenced the resistance from the White House to the Japanese desire for an early visit to Washington by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio after his election triumph. The Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign Ministry openly sought a White House meeting as early as later this month. But the White House politely pushed the date back, perhaps into next year.

This was mainly driven by Biden’s heavy domestic schedule and the need to accommodate the visits of other allies. But in the view of some, the White House also wanted to put some space between the Xi summit and a Kishida visit, worried it would be viewed as an attempt to balance the effort to improve relations with China.

For the new government in Japan, the summit could pose a challenge. On one hand, it strengthens the hand of those in the cabinet who advocate a more balanced approach toward China, combining efforts to pursue engagement with measures to ensure economic security. On the other hand, Kishida may face pressure from hardliners in the Liberal Democratic Party who are eager to tighten military cooperation with the U.S. on Taiwan and advocate a more rapid defense buildup.

Limited results on the issues
It would be naïve, however, to overplay the summit results. Beyond the acknowledgment that escalation is in neither side’s interest, there was no visible movement on the agenda of issues presented by both leaders, a list aired frequently during the past 10 months. President Biden ran through China’s dismal human rights record, from Tibet and Xinjiang to Hong Kong; unfair trade and industrial practices; the military buildup in the South China Sea and the threats to freedom of navigation, and the need for a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific.’

The Chinese responded with their own accusations of American responsibility for creating a new Cold War. The American crimes, Xi reportedly told Biden, included advocacy of high-tech decoupling, economic sanctions, and forging military alliances to confront China, as well as using Taiwan to contain China and interfering in China’s internal affairs.

The meeting did avoid the harsh tones and public posturing that were displayed at the beginning of the Biden administration at the meeting of senior officials held in Alaska. “Both sides seem to acknowledge that runaway escalation is in neither side’s interest,” former senior State Department official Ryan Hass told a Brookings Institution panel discussing the summit. But while the meeting placed a floor under the relationship, there is also a clear ceiling on any substantial progress, he warned. “Neither side wants to be seen as softening,” Hass, now at Brookings, said.

Domestic issues come first in both countries
Both leaders are mainly absorbed by problems at home. President Biden’s popularity is sliding in the face of renewed concerns over the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, unease over the economic future amidst rising inflation and supply chain disruptions, and the impasse in the U.S. Congress which has stalled key legislation including a new massive spending bill. Domestic priorities clearly shaped the summit with Xi – the meeting only followed the passage of a massive $1 trillion infrastructure spending package, motivated in part by the competition with China.

President Biden “is unwilling to jeopardize his ability to achieve higher priority objectives by making concessions to Beijing merely to create the appearance of a better relationship,” observed Stanford China expert Thomas Finger, a former senior American intelligence official.

Xi is under no less onerous internal pressures, generated by slowing growth, a collapse of the real estate bubble, and a politically-motivated crackdown on China’s private sector tech entrepreneurs. This is compounded by a growing crisis of energy supply and rising prices in the global energy sector. Market reforms are stalled and “a severe economic slowdown has therefore become a near-term worry, not a distant one,” wrote China economy analyst Daniel Rosen in Foreign Affairs earlier this month. “Xi is running out of time,” Rosen warned.

The open economic warfare between China and the U.S., begun under the Trump administration and largely continued with Biden, has been a major factor in driving the strategic competition between the two countries. And it has been useful to both leaders in justifying other policies – in the Chinese case, internal repression and economic autonomy, if not decoupling and in the U.S. case, domestic spending on infrastructure and industrial rejuvenation, as well as ‘buy American’ measures.

There were some glimmers of potential breaks in this economic clash. The climate agreement reached in Glasgow between China and the U.S. was a surprise and could lead to cooperation in other areas, including on public health and energy. Apparently, the two leaders did spend some time exploring the current energy situation, not only shortages of supply but also price rises. Increased production of American natural gas for the Chinese market could potentially ease shortages in that market and also offer some significant reduction in the use of more carbon-intensive fuels like coal.

But overall, the summit offered few signs of progress in managing the economic collision that was set in motion in the previous administration and even longer ago. The absence of an elaborated trade policy by the Biden administration was painfully evident at the summit.

Biden reportedly pushed for the implementation of the Phase One agreement reached by the Trump administration, including Chinese purchase commitments, but there is no evidence that is feasible. And there are no talks on the agenda with China beyond that.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Secretary are on their way to Asia without any vision of a broader regional approach, though Sullivan made a passing reference to a preliminary discussion on an agreement on digital trade.

“The open question for the broader relationship is whether the US and China can constructively manage the slow-motion collision that is now unfolding between their very different worldviews,” commented former trade negotiator Stephen Olson and now a senior researcher for the Hinrich Foundation.

Cooperation and engagement will take place, Olson wrote after the summit, but the clear differences between China and the U.S. will not go away. “They can however be responsibly managed in a way that ameliorates the fallout. That is in the best interests of both countries, and it will be the defining challenge in US-China relations for the foreseeable future. Whether the Biden-Xi summit moved us any closer to meeting that challenge, however, remains to be seen.”

For now, a small opening has been made
For now, the best that can be hoped for is that the small opening in the otherwise relentless talk of confrontation and potential war will hold up and lead to more serious negotiations among senior officials. A lessening of harsh rhetoric in the media may be one immediate outcome. The summit yielded an agreement to ease restrictions on visas for American reporters, allowing their return to China, in exchange for reciprocal access for Chinese journalists from official media. Some steps to ease travel restrictions on business and academic visits may follow.

The Chinese media coverage reflected the official line, treating it as a positive shift but also as a win for the regime. “The tone is steadfast but not aggressive,” commented a scholar who closely monitors social media in China. “The Chinese government was relieved. Trump was very aggressive and unpredictable. Biden seems predictable and conciliatory.”

How long this mood will last remains to be seen.

Sunday, November 7, 2021

Monday in Asia November 8, 2021

Richard Katz
former editor of the The Oriental Economist Report and APP member started a new blog called “Japan Economy Watch on Substack. While it’s mostly about the Japanese economy and economic policy, it also covers Japanese politics and US economic conditions and policy, particularly in the areas of trade policy and finance. You can reach it and subscribe for free HERE.
SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL MARITIME COOPERATION AND OCEAN GOVERNANCE 2021. 11/8, 8:00pm-8:40am (EST), 11/9, 9:00am-9:40pm (CST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsors: China-Southeast Asia Research Center on the South China Sea (CSARC); National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS). Speakers Include: E. Wang Yi, State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, China; Mr. Wu Jianghao, Assistant Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China; Liu Zhenmin, Under Secretary-General of the United Nations; Wang Hong, Vice Minister of Natural Resources and Administrator of State Oceanic Administration, China; H.E. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Former Philippine President; Michael Lodge, Secretary-General, International Seabed Authority; Adnan Rashid Nasser Al-Azri, Chair of the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. 

JAPAN HELD ITS HALLOWEEN ELECTION—WHAT NOW? 11/8, 8:30-9:30am (EST), 10:30-11:30 pm (JST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsors: Stimson; The Canon Institution of Global Studies (CIGS). Speakers: Kuni Miyake, Research Director for Foreign and National Security Affairs, CIGS; Hiroyuki Akita, Commentator, Nikkei; Moderator: Yuki Tatsumi, Director, Japan Program, Stimson.

TAKING STOCK OF NEW FED AND ECB MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS. 11/8, 9:00-10:30am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hutchins Center, Brookings. Speakers: Ben S. Bernanke, Distinguished Fellow in Residence, Economic Studies, Brookings; Richard Clarida, Vice Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve; Philip R. Lane, Member, Executive Board, European Central Bank; Julia Coronado, President & Founder, Macropolicy Perspectives; Bill Dudley, Former President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Aysegul Sahin, Richard J. Gonzalez Regents Chair in Economics, University of Texas at Austin; Tiffany Wilding, Executive Vice President and North American Economist, PIMCO; Moderators: Rachana Shanbhogue, Finance & Economics Editor, The Economist; David Wessel, Director, Hutchins Center, Brookings. 

MOBILIZING FOR ELECTIONS: PATRONAGE AND POLITICAL MACHINES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. 11/8, 10:00-11:15am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Asia Center, Harvard University. Speakers: Meredith Weiss, Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Allen Hicken, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan.

SUSTAINABILITY, EQUALITY, PEACE: INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE & WPS AGENDAS. 11/8, 11:00am-12:15pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsors: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security; United Arab Emirates Mission to the United States; Support for Women in Agriculture and Environment (SWAGEN); Rural Women Energy Security (RUWES). Speakers: HE Pekka Haavisto, Finland's Minister for Foreign and European Affairs; HE Lana Nusseibeh, Permanent Representative of the UAE to the UN; Dr. Jonathan Pershing, Deputy Special Envoy for Climate, U.S. Department of State; Ann Cairns, Vice Chairman, Mastercard; Gertrude Kenyangi, Executive Director, Support for Women in Agriculture and Environment (SWAGEN), Uganda; Nafisah Abubakar, Head of Secretariat, Rural Women Energy Security (RUWES), Nigeria; Zonibel Woods, Senior Social Development Specialist, Asian Development Bank; Moderator: Amb. Melanne Verveer, Executive Director, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security.

BENEFITS AND PROSPECTS OF FREE TRADE IN ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS. 11/8, Noon-1:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Cato. Speakers: H.E. Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA); Former Rep. James Bacchus (D-FL), Adjunct Fellow, Cato; Maureen Hinman, Co‐​Founder and Chairman, Silverado Policy Accelerator; Inu Manak, Research Fellow, Cato. 

ELECTION WATCH 2022: ONE YEAR OUT. 11/8, Noon-1:15pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Speakers: Michael Barone, Senior Fellow Emeritus, AEI; John C. Fortier, Senior Fellow, AEI; Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow, Ethics & Public Policy Center; Norman J. Ornstein, Senior Fellow Emeritus, AEI; Moderator: Karlyn Bowman, Distinguished Senior Fellow, AEI. 

US-CHINA TECH COMPETITION AND EUROPE'S DEMOCRACIES. 11/8, 2:00-3:00pm (CEST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Speakers: Nigel Inkster, Senior Advisor, Cyber Security and China, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); Didi Kirsten Tatlow, Senior Fellow, Asia program, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP); Luke Patey, Senior Researcher, DIIS. 

2021 ELECTIONS: RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS. 11/8, 2:00-3:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Elaine Kamarck, Founding Director, Center for Effective Public Management; Amy Walter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, The Cook Political Report; Chris Stirewalt, Senior Fellow, AEI; John Hudak, Deputy Director, Center for Effective Public Management; Moderator: Juan Williams, Senior Political Analyst, Fox News Channel. 

JAPANESE LEGAL SYSTEM. 11/8, 8:00pm (EST), 11/9, 10:00am (JST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsors: Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies (YCAPS); Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership. Speaker: Tim Webster, Law Professor, Western New England University. 

SHAPING THE PRAGMATIC AND EFFECTIVE STRATEGY TOWARD CHINA: DEFENSE AND ECONOMIC SECURITY. 11/8, 8:00-10:00pm (EST), 11/9, 10:00am-Noon (JST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF). Speakers: Kazuko Kojima, Professor, Keio University; Heigo Sato, Professor, Takushoku University; Toshiya Tsugami, President, Tsugami Workshop Ltd.; Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow, SPF; Eric Heginbotham, Principal Research Scientist, Center for International Studies, MIT; James Schoff, Senior Director, SPF USA; Mireya Solis, Director and Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Brookings; Nicholas Szechenyi, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Japan Chair, CSIS.