Monday Asia Policy Events, July 21, 2025

INDIA IN THE EVOLVING WORLD ORDER: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASEAN AND BEYOND. 7/21, 2:30-4:00pm (SGT), 2:30-4:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS); Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS). Speakers: Choi Shing Kwok, Director and Chief Executive Officer, Yusof Ishak Institute; Dr. Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, India; Iqbal Singh Sevea, Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. 

INTERNATIONAL TAX COOPERATION AND COMPETITION: A RESET. 7/21, 8:30am-2:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: AEI. Speakers: Peter A. Barnes, Of Counsel, Caplin & Drysdale; Daniel Bunn, President, Tax Foundation; Nathaniel Carden, Partner, International Tax; Tax Controversy and Litigation, Skadden; Ron Estes, US House of Representatives (Kansas); Michael J. Graetz, Justus S. Hotchkiss Professor Emeritus of Law, Yale University; Mindy Herzfeld, Professor of Practice, University of Florida; Michael Knoll, Theodore K. Warner Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania; Adam N. Michel, Director, Tax Policy Studies, Cato Institute; William Morris, Global Tax Policy Leader, PwC US; Michael Plowgian, Principal, KPMG; Kyle Pomerleau, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Julie A. Roin, Seymour Logan Professor of Law, University of Chicago; Karl Russo, National Economics and Statistics Leader, PwC; Luisa Scarcella, Global Policy Lead, International Chamber of Commerce; Brad Schneider, US House of Representatives (Illinois). 

STRENGTHENING CYBER PARTNERSHIPS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC. 7/21, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security. Speakers: Dr. Duyeon Kim, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security; Mihoko Matsubara, Chief Cybersecurity Strategist, NTT Corporation; Dr. Teng Wei-Chung, Professor and Chairman, Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology; Dr. Sherwin Ona, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Developmental Studies, De La Salle University; Moderator: Vivek Chilukuri, Senior Fellow and Program Director, Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security. 

TOKYO AS A WINDOW FOR GLOBAL JAPAN: A CONVERSATION WITH GOVERNOR YURIKO KOIKE. 7/21, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Yuriko Koike, Governor, Tokyo; Kenneth R. Weinstein, Japan Chair. 

REPORT ROLLOUT: MESH SENSING FOR AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE. 7/21, 11:00-11:45am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Missile Defense Project, CSIS. Speakers: Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department, CSIS; Masao Dahlgren, Fellow, Missile Defense Project, CSIS.

POLICY INNOVATION FROM TOKYO TO THE WORLD. 7/21, 3:00-4:30pm, IN PERSON ONLY, 555 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Room 426, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS. Speaker: Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike. 

CORONAVIRUS AND NORTH KOREAN HUMAN RIGHTS: REGIME RESPONSES AND FUTURE INSTABILITY SCENARIOS. 7/21, 3:00-4:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK). Speakers: Robert Collins, Author, Coronavirus and North Korean Human Rights; Col. David Maxwell, Board Member, Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK); Jaewoo Park, Journalist, Radio Free Asia (RFA); Moderator: Greg Scarlatoiu, President & CEO, Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK). 

THE JAPANESE HOUSE OF COUNCILLORS. 7/22, 10:00-11:00am (JST), 7/21, 9:00-10:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Speaker: Michael Cucek, Faculty Advisor for Asian Studies and an Assistant Professor of Asian Studies at Temple University, Japan Campus. 

PRESS CONFERENCE: KIM IJUNG, KOREAN RESIDENTS UNION IN JAPAN (MINDAN). 7/22, 11:00am-Noon (JST), 7/21, 10:00-11:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan. Speakers: Kim Ijung, President, Central Head Office, Korean Residents Union, Japan

Tokyo's Elections

Resentment against Existing Parties Shown in Tokyo Elections

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 8, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The incumbent governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, secured her third term in the gubernatorial election on July 7. A contender supported by the opposition parties in national politics, Renho, came third behind an independent candidate, Shinji Ishimaru. The result, including by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, showed a fundamental resentment against existing political parties -- casting a shadow on the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

In her campaign Koike promised to update her policies, including support for families with children, and emphasized disaster management. She named her campaign policies “Tokyo Great Reform 3.0.”

Koike did not accept official support from the LDP and Komeito for her campaign. Still, both parties voluntarily promoted her. According to an exit poll of NHK, 60 percent of LDP supporters and 80 percent of Komeito supporters voted for Koike. They are undeniably the driving force behind Koike’s victory.

She successfully distanced herself from the LDP, which has been unpopular in the current election season. The party’s unpopularity dates to the by-elections for the House of Representatives in April and is the result of the slush fund scandal. Although Koike was formerly an LDP lawmaker, she separated from the LDP as the governor of Tokyo, leading her Tokyoites First Party. That stance made LDP’s “stealth support” for Koike easier.

Renho meanwhile failed to set her agenda within the structure of confrontation between the leading and opposition parties in national politics. When she announced her candidacy in May, Renho emphasized her bid against Koike as “anti-LDP, non-Koike.” But Koike eluded Renho’s campaign strategy, by refusing any help from the LDP on the campaign trail. Renho ironically lost her momentum by accepting support from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japan Communist Party (JCP).

The true anti-LDP candidate turned out to be Ishimaru. As a former mayor of Aki-Takata City, Hiroshima, Ishimaru ran his campaign through social networking. In his speeches on the street, he asked his audience to upload his campaign materials to the Internet, instead appealing his own policies for Tokyo. In YouTube videos, he continued to denounce existing politics.

Unfortunately for Koike, she did not receive a true majority of the vote; the sum of votes for Renho and Ishimaru exceeded what Koike obtained. There were frequent disturbances during Koike’s speeches. It is undeniable that Koike was regarded by voters as one of the leaders of the old politics.

It was a comfortable outcome for the LDP, none the less. Since the complete defeat in all three by-elections of the House of Representatives in April, Koike’s win was the first major victory of a candidate supported by the LDP. Party leaders are not feeling it, though. “Koike’s victory is not our party’s victory. Criticisms still remain and we need to promote party reforms,” LDP Deputy Secretary General, Tomomi Inada, told NHK News.

The LDP’s pessimism is based on the result of the by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly that were held the same day. Although the LDP ran candidates in eight of nine districts, it won in only two. The party representation was reduced by three seats in the election, facing criticisms of its management of political funds as shown in the slush fund scandal in the Diet.

In the Hachioji district, an independent candidate defeated the LDP candidate by a great margin. Hachioji is the district where one of the leaders of the Abe faction, Koichi Hagiuda, has been keeping his seat in the House of Representatives. Although party leaders, including Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and a popular candidate as the next prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, campaigned for the LDP candidate, their appearances did not soften the negative impact on the party.

In the Koto district, which overlaps with the Tokyo 15 district in the House of Representatives -- where the LDP lost in a by-election in April -- the LDP candidate lost to an independent. In the other four districts, the LDP lost by slight margins to the CDP, the Tokyoites First Party or an independent. Strangely enough, the LDP won by a big margin in the Itabashi district, which is in the grip of another leader of the Abe faction, Hakubun Shimomura, who is among the most conservative.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not stand on the stage of any campaigns in the Tokyo gubernatorial election or the by-elections of the assembly. It was obvious that Kishida would have received harsh criticism of his handling of the slush fund scandal from the audience. The result of the elections in Tokyo will work against Kishida’s reelection this fall.

Renho’s defeat cast doubt on the value of the CDP’s cooperation with the JCP.   Running Renho for Tokyo governor was a decision of the CDP with expectation that, in the party’s following winds from the major victories in the by-elections in April, she could sail to victory.

The CDP may reconsider its strategy for the next general election of the House of Representatives. The result of elections in Tokyo may also affect the selection of the next CDP leader in September.

The unexpected success of Ishimaru may affect the campaign strategies of the existing parties. Ishimaru proved that a campaign relying on SNS could overcome the biggest opposition party. He boasted that running against Prime Minister Kishida in his district in Hiroshima of the House of Representatives would be an option for him in the next election. His message against the politics of existing parties struck a chord with certain voters.

Frustration with current politics is reflected in the number of candidates. Fifty-six candidates ran for the one seat of governor, marking a new record. The public poster boards in the streets did not have room for all the candidates.

Tokyo gubernatorial election in 2024 was not completely an event for selecting the next governor of Tokyo. Some candidates did not intend to work as governor, but to collect money by selling an opportunity for voters to express their disappointment with the process or to earn more page views in SNS. The existing parties have begun to consider new legislation to regulate election campaigns. The biggest loser might be democracy in Japan.

The Death of Liberalism in Japan

A new party only strengthens the Right

by Koichi Nakano is a professor of political science at Sophia University, in Tokyo.
The International New York Times, October 16, 2017

TOKYO — Last month, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan dissolved Parliament and called a snap election for Oct. 22, he seemed to be making the decision from a position of strength. The opposition was in disarray, and his popularity ratings were picking up again, his hawkishness apparently vindicated by North Korea’s mounting belligerence.

In fact, the decision was a sign of weakness — of Mr. Abe’s political weakness and also, more problematically for the country, of a crisis of representativeness in Japanese politics. Whatever the outcome of the election on Sunday, a gap is growing between voters’ policy preferences and the new conservative two-party system that seems to be emerging as the liberal-left opposition is shoved aside.

There is some debate over the precise circumstances under which the executive branch may dissolve the legislature, known as the Diet, but most constitutional law scholars agree that the prime minister does not have free rein, and some criticized Mr. Abe’s move as partisan and unconstitutional. The public did not seem to appreciate the decision either: In one Kyodo poll, more than 60 percent of respondents said they found it objectionable.

Mr. Abe’s decision was seen as self-serving not least because he is perceived to have been dodging the Diet’s efforts to hold him accountable for two scandals possibly involving nepotism and an alleged cover-up concerning the activities of Japan’s Self-Defense Force in South Sudan. In June, the prime minister shut down Parliament’s ordinary session soon after pushing through a controversial anti-conspiracy law that gives broad surveillance power to the police at the expense of civil liberties.

The opposition asked to convene an extraordinary session, a right guaranteed by the Constitution when one-quarter of members in either house of the Diet so request. Mr. Abe ignored the demand for more than three months, and then, no sooner did he reconvene Parliament on Sept. 28 than he dissolved it again, by calling an election that didn’t need to be held for more than a year. Mr. Abe’s evasiveness has seemed all the more suspect because he and his allies control more than two-thirds of the seats in both houses.

In reality, however, Mr. Abe’s impressive majorities rest on rather feeble foundations. His ruling Liberal Democratic Party has garnered the support of only about one-quarter of eligible voters in recent general elections. The party has nonetheless won these races by landslides, but only thanks to Japan’s first-past-the-post system (under which two-thirds of the lower house are allocated), a divided opposition and depressed voter turnout.

Voters have never given a ringing endorsement to Mr. Abe’s “Take Back Japan” agenda, which promotes a “stronger” Japan both economically and militarily with a distinctively nationalist tone, glorifying Japan’s past. He faced major protests in 2015 after proposing new security bills to legalize collective self-defense, which were seen as seriously undermining Japan’s so-called pacifist Constitution.

The security bills were passed, but have remained divisive, as have Mr. Abe’s hopes of expanding the activities of the Self-Defense Force, among other things. According to a poll by the Yomiuri newspaper earlier this month, 42 percent of respondents disapproved of Mr. Abe’s proposal to write the existence of the force into the Constitution. (Some 35 percent supported it.)

The cabinet’s approval rating dropped to 26 percent in late July, in the midst of the scandals. As of late last week, it was at about 37 percent, according to a Nikkei poll.

So how does Mr. Abe stay in power when his policies are so unpopular?

The secret of his grip has been, largely, the lack of an alternative. The centrist Democratic Party, the country’s main opposition party, was discredited after displaying inexperience and incompetence during its brief, and only, stint in government, under a former name, in 2009-12.

After the nuclear accident at Fukushima in 2011 spurred renewed activism at the grassroots level, the Democratic Party formed an alliance with civil society groups and smaller leftist parties. The strategy paid off, and led to substantial gains in the 2016 upper house election. But it also came at a price, namely growing resentment among Democratic Party conservatives. And even the party’s inroads couldn’t compensate for one of the opposition’s most enduring weaknesses: its lack of a convincing leader. The conservative Seiji Maehara was elected as the Democratic Party’s new head on Sept. 1, but, perceived as a has-been, he hardly has enthused the public.

Enter Yuriko Koike, the populist and media-savvy governor of Tokyo, whose party handsomely defeated Mr. Abe’s in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election in July. Last month, on the very day that Mr. Abe announced the dissolution of the Diet’s lower house, Ms. Koike inaugurated a new party, the Party of Hope, with great fanfare. She then promptly struck a surprise deal with Mr. Maehara under which, in essence, the Party of Hope would take over the Democratic Party. For a moment, Ms. Koike appeared to be revving up to become a direct challenger to Mr. Abe.

But as the campaign period was about to begin, Ms. Koike announced, without much explanation, that she would not be running. That decision was another victory for Mr. Abe, and another one handed to him by his own rivals: By then, Ms. Koike had, in effect, already killed the liberal-left alliance.

Ms. Koike claims to have created the Party of Hope in order to “reset Japan.” It’s a conveniently vague slogan — and reminiscent of the Liberal Democratic Party’s own, “Take Japan Back.” The Party of Hope rests on a policy platform of catchy but vague sound bites — it is against nuclear energy, overhead power cables and hay fever, among other things — some fundamentally at odds with Ms. Koike’s avowedly conservative positions.

She hardly is an ideological foe of Mr. Abe’s: She served in his first government, including as defense minister in 2007. Which is one reason that when Ms. Koike decided not to run in the upcoming Diet race, it suddenly seemed as though she had never intended to take on Mr. Abe but rather had been positioning herself to strike a deal with him after the election.

As of late last week, several polls were predicting a solid victory for the Liberal Democratic Party, saying it would win about 300 of the 465 seats in the lower house. The Party of Hope lagged far behind, and Ms. Koike’s own popularity ratings have dropped since she withdrew from the race. But no matter; the work already is done.

The Democratic Party is nearly defunct. The bulk of its former members are running under the banner of the Party of Hope, and much of its liberal wing has decided to create the Constitutional Democratic Party. The new party’s main platform is to oppose Mr. Abe head-on on a range of issues, especially, as its name indicates, on constitutional reform. That cause is popular, but the party probably is too young to make much progress in this election.

And so even before any ballot is cast on Sunday, one outcome already seems clear: The election will spell the demise of Japan’s liberal left. A conservative two-party system without real checks and balances is emerging in Japan, and the gap keeps widening between the country’s politics and the people’s preferences.

Koike tests possibilities and perils of populism in Japan

Populism is revanchism by another name in Japan

BY Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies, Temple University Japan and APP Member

JAPAN TIMES, AUG 26, 2017

The horrendous images beamed around the world from Charlottesville, Virginia, serve as a poignant reminder that white-supremacist populism is a toxic force in the United States. President Donald Trump’s repugnant response, coming out on the wrong side of history on both Nazis and the Ku Klux Klan, inflamed passions and reminded everyone that he is unfit to be president.

The Brexit vote, Trump’s election and French President Emmanuel Macron’s thumping victory are symptomatic of the age of anger we live in. Populism is about claiming to represent the “real people” and targeting the establishment, corruption and immorality. Populists feed on social discontent and promise to clean up a bankrupt system that is rigged for the favored few while the interests of the “real people” are neglected. They invoke culture wars and promise to revive and protect traditional values and community ties that have been sundered by a self-seeking elite. They promise a better life and trade in disappointment and nationalist grandstanding.

Populists have astutely exploited unease about job security and rising inequality, stoking resentment against the broken promises of globalization made by the political and business establishment.

So why no populist revolt after Japan’s economic bubble collapsed in 1990 or the 2008 “Lehman shock”? Perhaps this is because Japanese politics is influenced by a culture that esteems self-effacement, proper conduct and harmony. This is to say that a bumptious and meretricious candidate like Donald Trump is unthinkable.

Populism feeds on significant disparities in wealth, power and cultural values between the governing elite and “the people” and harps on a shared feeling of exclusion — slim pickings here as income disparities are relatively modest and social cohesion is strong.

Anti-immigrant activism is also quite limited because there are not many in Japan. Non-Japanese legally resident in the country total about 2.23 million, with an additional 200,000 foreign trainees and 240,000 foreign students. Japan’s welcome mat for asylum seekers is minuscule, with the government accepting just 28 refugees from a total of 10,901 applicants in 2016, so there is not much to grandstand against.

Zaitokukai, a right-wing fringe organization, has been at the forefront of xenophobic agitation, targeting Japan’s Zainichi community of ethnic Koreans who came to Japan in the prewar era, mostly under duress, and remained after Japan’s 1945 defeat. But its hatemongering confronted much larger counter-demonstrations, and in the 2016 Tokyo elections the group’s founder ran and won 110,000 votes. That’s puny compared to the nearly 3 million votes that clinched Yuriko Koike the governorship, but that’s still a lot of xenophobes.

Populism in Japan is not feeding on resentments stirred by glaring economic disparities, a large immigrant population or significant cultural divisions. Instead, Koike is riding an anti-establishment populist wave like her mentor, Junichiro Koizumi. He became president of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2001 by promising voters that he would destroy the party. He didn’t sugarcoat his agenda, instead embracing the slogan “No pain, no gain,” offering hope of better times down the road, but only if the public would bite the bullet now; voters loved it. He was a populist neoliberal raging against the conservative establishment who convinced people he was on their side against the vested interests, even as his popularity helped the party that represents those interests.

Telegenic and charismatic, Koizumi was the first Japanese prime minster who understood the power of media in the theater of politics. He barked out pithy sound bites, controlling the message by giving the media what they needed on his terms.

Current PM Shinzo Abe is no populist, but he has learned about the threat of populism. Koike emulates Koizumi in the theater of politics, winning public acclaim by promoting transparency and accountability regarding the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and the relocation of the iconic Tsukij fish market. The public lapped up the spectacle provided by hearings that skewered the LDP old guard for sweetheart deals and greenlighting the market’s relocation to a toxic site. It was classic David vs. Goliath — we the people against the powers that be — earning Koike kudos for having the guts to challenge the powerful dinosaurs that call the shots in Japan.

Koike embraces right-wing political positions very similar to Abe’s, so her new party, Nippon First no Kai (Japan First), will struggle to stake out policy positions that make it an appealing alternative to the LDP. Her formula for success has been outing cronyism, promoting transparency and making the establishment look fusty and clueless, admittedly not a big challenge when you can serve up ex-Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshiro Mori, head of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, as exhibits A and B. In championing transparency and accountability, she has made a name for herself on issues that Abe is vulnerable on given recent scandals, missing documents and his having let Tomomi Inada off the hook for what appears to be a scandalous role in an alleged coverup at the Defense Ministry on her watch.

Koike faces stiff challenges, however, in translating her appeal in Tokyo into a nationwide populist movement. Just ask former Osaka Gov. Toru Hashimoto, who tried and failed.

Problematically, Abe occupies Koike’s ideological comfort zone, so she needs to cannibalize his base to get any traction. It is thus imperative that she presents an alternative policy agenda to highlight their differences and tap into simmering dissatisfaction with the status quo. Pushing for a comprehensive indoor smoking ban in Tokyo and promoting work-life balance to cut down on excessive hours will help, but she needs much more. She could gain considerable support by declaring opposition to nuclear reactor restarts and pledging to phase out nuclear energy.

Success brings heightened scrutiny. Back in 2012, Kazusa Noda, who Koike named as head of Tokyo First in 2016, suggested the current Constitution should be invalidated and that Japan should return to the pre-World War II version. But isn’t that Abe territory?

As Koike’s record comes under closer scrutiny, the media may pop her populist bubble. Indeed, the Asahi and Mainichi are now challenging her pro-transparency image, with the Asahi giving her a grade of ‘F’ for her first year in office due to her “black box” approach to policymaking. They assert that there was no transparency in her signature policy reforms and she is acting just like her predecessors.

Populists thrive on the limelight, but it could prove Koike’s undoing, as France’s Macron now knows all too well. Bet she now wishes she had not made a point of saying how similar they are.

Who Spends Time with Abe?

Who are the frequent visitors to the Prime Minister's Office

By 北川開, Nikkei Shimbun Reporter

Originally published in Japanese in Nikkei Shimbun (1/29/2017)
[面会多い相手は?安倍首相の４年間、データで解剖  ]
Provisional translation by APP interns for scholarly exchange.

How does Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spend the day as the head of the government? A look at the prime minister’s tightly scheduled meetings throughout the day will give us a picture of where the administration’s priorities lie, as well as Abe’s relationship with people surrounding him. Using data accumulated for the Nikkei Shimbun’s column “Prime Minister’s Office [Shusho Kantei]” that appears daily in the paper’s Politics section, we have done an analysis of Prime Minister Abe’s four years since his return to the premiership.

“Abe’s most frequent visitor” in the past four years has been the cabinet’s top intelligence official, Director of Cabinet Intelligence Shigeru Kitamura. Kitamura reports to Abe on confidential matters ranging from diplomacy and security to elections that the cabinet intelligence and research office compiles. Kitamura is often seen visiting Abe multiple times a day. Occasionally, he carries necessary information to the PM at his vacation home in Yamanashi Prefecture. Kitamura had worked under the first Abe administration as an executive secretary to the prime minister and supported Abe through that challenging period.

At the Center is “2A+S”

A reporter, who is assigned to cover the prime minister’s daily activities, waits at the door to the Prime Minister’s Office [Kantei] and ask everyone who goes through the door whether he/she met with Abe. Kitamura always tells the reporter “yes” but nothing else.

The second most frequent visitor has been the former vice-minister for foreign affairs Akitaka Saiki. Abe has known Saiki well ever since he served as an English-language interpreter for Abe’s father Shintaro Abe when the senior Abe was foreign minister. Saiki, the foreign ministry’s top administrative official, frequently visited the Kantei to keep Abe abreast of events and receive instructions. In this way, the Abe administration emphasizes Abe’s direct control of the foreign ministry. Abe’s weight in negotiations with foreign counterparts has been increasing, and Japanese diplomats, more than ever, cannot take actions without Abe’s instructions.

The third was Secretary General of the National Security Secretariat Shotaro Yachi. He served under the first Abe administration as a foreign vice-minister and is described as Abe’s brain in diplomacy. In the U.S., Russian, and Chinese governments the organization that reports direct to the head of the state wields influence. One example is the U.S. National Security Council. Yachi has acted as the counterpart to these organizations, and has arranged Abe’s summit diplomacy from behind the scenes.

Meetings between Abe, Kitamura, Yachi, and senior officials from the foreign and defense ministries are held regularly, generally twice a month. The highest-ranking uniformed officer of the SDF, Joint Chief of Staff Katsutoshi Kawano has also been a member of that group. The meetings provide a framework for discussing matters significant to the country’s security policy.

Among politicians, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has been the fourth most frequent visitor, followed by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso. Suga is often in attendance when Abe meets with important visitors. Aso comes with senior officials from the finance ministry for reporting, then usually stays behind to talk with the prime minister alone. While the ministry officials are there, the meeting revolves around the government’s financial policy. During their private conversation, Abe and Aso likely discuss and exchange opinions about political decision making.

Abe, Aso, Suga and the former Minister of Economic Revitalization, Economic and Fiscal Policy Akira Amari, the so-called 3A+S, were the core of the Abe administration. Since Amari resigned the ministerial post in 2016 as a result of a political-fund scandal, the “2A+S” has been in charge of running the administration.

The sixth most frequent visitor, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko (former deputy chief cabinet secretary, Upper House) and the eighth, Minister in Charge of Empowerment of All Citizens Katsunobu Kato (former deputy chief cabinet secretary, Lower House) had been regulars at the prime minister’s office during their terms as deputy CCS. On mornings of the day Abe is scheduled to go to the Diet, both houses’ deputy CCSs participate, without fail, in a Diet preparation session for the prime minister.

Unknowable Inner Meetings inside Kantei

News reporters in charge of the prime minister must remain near the entrance to the Kantei when talking to people and are not allowed to go inside rooms. Therefore, if a person who works inside the Kantei meets and talks with the prime minister, that meeting may not appear in the “Prime Minister’s Office.” According to a high-ranking government official, a meeting is held every day between the prime minister, the chief cabinet secretary, deputy chief cabinet secretary, and executive secretary to the prime minister in charge of policies. By meeting every day, the core members of the administration at the Kantei confirm basic policy directions and avoid inconsistent remarks. Even without a particular agenda, just meeting with each other regularly gives a sense of unity.

Abe’s office is on the same floor as Suga’s, increasing the chances they meet much more often than what is reported.

Among agencies, senior officials from the ministry of foreign affairs, the ministry of finance, the ministry of defense, the ministry of economy, trade and industry, and the cabinet office have been the ones frequenting the Kantei. As for annual visits by officials above the level of director-general of each ministry, the number of visits by senior officials of the foreign and defense ministries greatly increased in 2016 compared with the previous three years.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had the highest number by far of visits to the prime minister’s office, due to the many significant diplomatic exchanges that occurred in 2016, including the Ise-Shima G7 Summit in May and the Japan-Russia summit meetings.

If we only look at the Administration’s fourth year, the defense ministry’s Director General for Defense Policy Satoshi Maeda was the fifth most frequent visitor. It reflects the weight the administration placed on managing the threats posed by an escalation of North Korean nuclear missile development and Chinese maritime advancement in the South and the East China Seas.

Meetings held with finance ministry officials have been slightly fewer than in past administrations, according to a source close to the prime minister. Although METI officials did not come to the Kantei as much, Takaya Imai, an executive secretary to the prime minister (policy) and a former METI bureaucrat, has likely been acting as a bridge between Abe and the ministry and helped Abe exert his influence. Meanwhile, the cabinet office is taking the initiative in the policy of the dynamic engagement of all citizens and work-style reform to increase its leadership presence.

Discuss Policy Over Noodles

Lunch and dinner meetings are good for developing friendly relationships. Besides the Kantei visitors, the Nikkei Shimbun looked into the prime minister’s favorite restaurants and dinner partners.

The most frequently used restaurant has been “ORIGAMI”, a restaurant in the Capitol Hotel Tokyu. So far during the second Abe administration, the prime minister has dined at the restaurant a total of 40 times. A majority of his dining partners have been people close to Abe such as executive secretaries and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga. It seems he uses ORIGAMI when he wants to have a casual dinner meeting.

The prime minister’s favorite choice from the menu is pork rib ramen noodles, priced at 2,730 yen including tax. Last December, former Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, currently a legal and policy advisor to the Nippon Ishin no Kai, joined Abe for a steak lunch. The hotel has many exits for vehicles, making it easy for a guest to leave without being seen by the press.

Traditional Japanese-style restaurants [ryotei] have generally been chosen for meetings with business leaders. One of the venues is Arisugawa Shimizu, a Japanese restaurant in Minamiazabu, where members of Sakurakai, a high-powered business group, frequently gather. Yoshiyuki Kasai, the chairman emeritus of JR Tokai, and Shigetaka Furumori, the chairman and CEO of Fujifilm Holdings, belong to Sakurakai. The group has been a loyal supporter of Abe since before his first premiership.

Fukudaya, a Japanese restaurant in Kioicho, is where the prime minister regularly meets with Takashi Imai and Hiroshi Okuda, the chairmen emeritus of Keidanren.

When meeting with people from the entertainment industry, the prime minister often chooses more fashionable venues. He and actor Masahiko Tsugawa are friends who celebrate each other’s birthdays. They eat together with other people from the industry at Italian restaurants and the like. Abe is said to enjoy hearing stories from a community with which he has less frequent contact.

Dinner with Tsugawa often can last for hours. On Jan. 5, they talked for as long as three hours and 25 minutes. The prime minister’s dinner meetings generally end within a couple of hours. But when Abe is with close friends and family, the gathering tends to last much longer.

Weekend’s Activities

Before his return to the premiership, Abe has determined to accomplish three things every month--conduct an overseas visit, visit affected areas of the Great East Japan Earthquake and play golf.

Keeping the pace of almost once a month, Abe has conducted totally 50 times overseas visits under the banner of “diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the world map”. As many as 66 countries and regions has been visited. He takes full advantage of the Golden week and summer during the Diet recess.

Weekends are often used for visits to the affected areas of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Abe has visited 31 times in total so far, once in every 48 days after his return to premiership. If the visits to affected areas of Kumamoto Earthquake and typhoons are included, the number adds up to 42 times in total, which means he has visited once in every 36 days. He has mostly achieved his own goal to visit the disaster affected areas “once in a month”.

Concerning his hobby golf, Abe plays it several days in a row during vacations and so far has played 56 times. Though his score of Golf has not been revealed as a state secret, a person who played with him said it was “91”. Chairman of Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), Sadayuki Sakakibara, who often plays with Abe, is said to be better at golf than him. The prime minister has two favorite golf courses, one located in Chiba prefecture and the other in Kanagawa prefecture, and three favorite courses in Yamanashi prefecture, where Abe has his villa.

Abe goes to have hair cut almost once in a month. The prime minister’s favorite beauty salon is “HAIR GUEST” (Tokyo, Shibuya). Originally, “Barber Shop MURAGI” was his favorite, but it is said that he started to commute to “HAIR GUEST” thanks to his wife Akie’s recommendation. Though he had a stylist part his hair on the side at “Barber Shop MURAGI”, he asks a stylist at “HAIR GUEST” to make fluffy hair style.

Spending Year-end and New Year’s holidays at Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi with his relatives is a standard routine every year. Abe is a regular customer of “Nagomi Spa and Fitness”, and has been there 67 times since his second term. Therefore it is understood that he does his health management there once in 22 days.

Abe never fails to ensure health check. He gets a full medical check in Spring and Autumn every year, and sees a dentist almost once in a month. Mostly he goes to the dentist in the first Congressman Hall of the House of Representatives during the intervals between weekday official duties.

Abe cherishes his friendship with old friends. He frequently participates in the gathering of Keisei Gakuen, which he commuted to from elementary school to university. He frequently meets with friends he made during his study in the U.S. after graduation from university. He tends to relax during mealtime with his family and friends, and sometimes greets reporters, who are assigned to cover the prime minister’s daily activities, by saying “Otsukaresama”.

Beyond the Right to Know

Regarding media coverage of the prime minister’s daily activities such as meeting opponents, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has pointed out “it’s beyond the public’s right to know” when she was a Member of the House of Representatives. The U.S. media don’t seem to have detailed schedules of the President Trump. Also, President Xi Jinping is doing what or where right now is confidential information in China. Reporting the prime minister’s movement with high transparency is significant for monitoring power. We would like to continue to keep track of the prime minister.

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule August 1-7, 2016

August 1, 2016

AM
09:12 Depart private residence in Tomigaya.
09:43 Meet with Foreign Minister, Mr. Kishida Fumio at the Prime Minister’s Office.
10:17 Meet with Economic Revitalization Minister, Mr. Ishihara Nobuteru, Vice Minister of the Cabinet Office, Mr. Nishikawa Masao, Cabinet Office Councillor, Mr. Habuka Shigeki, Policy Director General, Mr. Niihara Hiroaki. Mr. Ishihara stay behind.
11:11 Meet with LDP General Council Chairman, Mr. Nikai Toshihiro.

PM
12:32 General meeting of LDP members of both houses of the Diet in the Diet building, followed by meeting with Vice President, Mr. Komura Masahiko and general meeting of LDP Lower House members.
13:02 Lower House plenary session. Meet with Regional Revitalization Minister, Mr. Ishiba Shigeru in the Lower House.
13:44 National Security Council meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office.
15:00 Opening ceremony of extraordinary Diet session at the Upper House main chamber.
15:19 Meet with Upper House President, Mr. Date Chuichi, Vice President Mr. Gunji Akira at the minister’s office in the Diet.
15:39 Meet with LDP Election Strategy Committee Director General, Mr. Motegi Toshimitsu at the Prime Minister’s Office.
16:22 Meet with Komeito leader, Mr. Yamaguchi Natsuo.
17:01 LDP executive meeting at the Diet.
17:46 Meet with LDP Executive Acting Secretary General, Mr. Hosoda Hiroyuki at the Prime Minister’s Office.
18:46 Meet with Keio University President, Mr. Seike Atsushi, Obayashi Corporation Chairman, Mr. Obayashi Takeo, others at members-only Tsunamachi Mitsui Club.
21:43 Arrive at his private residence.

August 2, 2016

AM
08:38 Depart private residence in Tomigaya
09:01 Informal government- ruling parties policy meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office, followed by meeting with LDP Policy Research Council chair, Ms. Inada Tomomi.
10:02 Cabinet meeting.
11:22 Meet with Vice Foreign Minister, Mr. Sugiyama Shinsuke, MOFA Intelligence and Analysis Service Director General, Mr. Suzuki Satoshi.

PM

13:36 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Mr. Hagiuda Koichi.
13:56 Attend memorial service at the Aoyama Funeral Hall in Minami-Aoyama for victims of terrorist attack at restaurant in Bangladesh.
14:44 Interview by media outlets at the Prime Minister’s Office.
15:05 Meet with elementary and middle school “kid reporters” from Okinawa, Hokkaido.
16:01 Ad hoc cabinet meeting, followed by meeting with Finance Minister, Mr. Aso Taro.
17:24 Meet with National Security Secretariat chief, Mr. Yanai Shotaro, Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office chief, Mr. Kitamura Shigeru, National Police Agency Security Bureau chief, Mr. Okita Yoshiki. Mr. Kitamura stay behind.
18:58 Meet with Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, Mr. Eto Seiichi.
20:25 Arrive at his private residence.

August 3, 2016

AM
08:47 Depart his private residence in Tomigaya.
09:16 Meet with General Council Chairman, Mr. Nikai Toshihiro, others at LDP headquarters.
09:33 Ad hoc General Council meeting. Photo-taking with LDP executives.
10:32 LDP executive meeting.
11:13 Interview with media outlets at the Prime Minister’s Office, followed by National Security Council meeting.

PM
12:31 Meet separately with Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Mr. Hayashi Motoo, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Mr. Moriyama Hiroshi, Defense Minister, Mr. Nakatani Gen, Reconstruction Minister, Mr. Takagi Tsuyoshi, and Administrative Reform Minister, Mr. Kono Taro.
13:32 Ad hoc cabinet meeting, followed by meeting with ministers who were stepping down.
14:17 Meeting with Komeito leader, Mr. Yamaguchi Natsuo, attended also by Chief Cabinet Secretary, Mr. Suga Yoshihide, LDP Secretary General, Mr. Nikai Toshihiro, and Komeito Secretary General, Mr. Inoue Yoshihisa.
14:35 Creation of cabinet reshuffle headquarters, followed by the summoning of new ministers.
16:10 Informal report to the Emperor at the Imperial Palace, followed by attestation ceremony for new ministers.
18:30 News conference at the Prime Minister’s Office.
19:04 Hand out appointment documents to ministers for specific duties; followed by first cabinet meeting.
19:51 Souvenir photo with cabinet ministers.
20:46 Arrive at his private residence.

August 4, 2016

AM
09:25 Depart private residence in Tomigaya.
09:49 Meet with Tokyo Governor, Ms. Koike Yuriko at the Prime Minister’s Office, followed by meeting with special adviser to the prime minister, Mr. Kawai Katsuyuki.
10:26 Meet with National Security Secretariat chief, Mr. Yachi Shotaro, Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office chief, Mr. Kitamura Shigeru, the Foreign Ministry's Foreign Policy Bureau Director General, Mr. Ishikane Kimihiro, and the Defense Ministry’s Defense Policy Bureau Director General, Mr. Maeda Satoshi.
10:59 Meet with House of Representatives member, Mr. Kawamura Takeo, followed by recording of a video message to Japanese young people on studying in the U.S.

PM
13:27 Meet with LDP Vice President, Mr. Komura Masahiko.
14:35 Meet with Prime Minister’s special adviser, Mr. Eto Seiichi.
15:15 Meet with Mr. Yachi, Vice Foreign Minister, Mr. Sugiyama Shinsuke.
16:34 Meet with Nippon Signal Co. Chairman, Mr. Furuhata Yohei and his group, followed by meeting with Royal Ballet dancers, Mr. Hirano Ryoichi and Ms. Takada Akane.
17:12 Meet with Mr. Yachi, Mr. Ishikane, Mr. Maeda, SDF Chief of Staff, Mr. Kawano Katsutoshi.
18:01 Dinner with Mr. Komura, LDP Secretary General, Mr. Nikai Toshihiro, Defense Minister, Ms. Inada Tomomi, and others at his residential quarters in the Prime Minister's Office.

August 5, 2016

AM
09:04 Attend a Cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office.
09:40 Meet with Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister, Mr. Yamamoto Yuji.
10:09 Report privately to the Emperor and attend the Imperial attestation ceremony of state ministers.

PM
12:17 Arrive at the Prime Minister’s Office.
13:25 Have photographs taken with state ministers and later attend a meeting with state ministers.
14:31 Attend the appointment ceremony of parliamentary vice ministers, have photographs taken with them, and later have a meeting with parliamentary vice ministers.
15:04 Meet with officials of the LDP’s Yamaguchi prefectural chapter.
15:42 Meet with Cabinet Intelligence Director, Mr. Kitamura, later with Defense Policy Bureau Director General, Mr. Maeda and Admiral, Mr. Kawano, Joint Staff Chief, at the Prime Minister’s Office.
17:47 Depart Haneda Airport by JAL flight 265.
18:43 Arrive at Hiroshima Airport.
19:51 Meet with the prime minister’s secretaries at “Boston” restaurant in Grand Prince Hotel Hiroshima in Hiroshima City. Stay overnight at the hotel.

August 6, 2016

AM
07:39 Depart Grand Prince Hotel Hiroshima in Hiroshima City.
08:00 Attend the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Ceremony at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park.
09:30 Attend a “meeting for hearing from A-bomb survivors” at Righa Royal Hotel Hiroshima. Health, Labor and Wealth Minister, Mr. Shiozaki and Foreign Affairs Minister, Mr. Kishida were present.
10:23 Hold a press conference.

PM
12:03 Depart Hiroshima Airport by JAL flight 256.
13:14 Arrive at Haneda Airport.
13:48 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management, Mr. Nishimura, National Security Secretariat Secretary General, Mr. Yachi, Cabinet Intelligence Director, Mr. Kitamura, Japan Coast Guard Commandant, Mr. Nakajima, and the Foreign Affairs Ministry’s Asia and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General, Mr. Kanasugi.

August 7, 2016

AM
Stay at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence throughout the morning

PM
15:46 Have his hair cut at “Barber Shop Muragi”at the Hilton Tokyo.
17:23 Arrive at his private residence in Tomigaya.

An encounter with a denier

The sick man of Asia: costs of denial

By Richard Tanter

Nautilus Institute, January 10, 2012

Let me tell you a story. It’s a bit long, and about a friend of mine and her family, but it might explain why I believe that the idea of Japan as the northern hinge of the United States’s pivot strategy against China is simply not viable in political terms, and may well prove dangerous.

In early March 2007 I found myself on the stage of CLSA’s annual Japan Forum in Tokyo, together with Koike Yuriko, at the time Prime Minister Abe’s National Security Advisor, and soon after, Minister of Defence. Koike, an Arabic speaking former journalist, gave a short anodyne talk to the 800 or so assembled suits about plans for a national security council. I followed on with some hopefully less anodyne comments, but then shifted from my prepared remarks to raise the issue of the Prime Minister’s comments in that morning’s newspaper in response to the testimony to a US Congressional sub-committee by three women, two Korean and one Australian, about their experiences as sexual slaves for the Japanese Army in WW2. Abe had said that while the events were regrettable, “in the legal definition”, this was not a matter of coercion.^[1]

Addressing Ms Koike, and trying to keep a level tone, I said that as someone who had lived in Japan for a long time, with a deep affection for the country, I thought these remarks were disastrous for Japan in policy terms. Soft power – the capacity to generate a desire for imitation or admiration – is generally regarded as an important part of a country’s strategic posture, but for Japan this issue, and the inability of the country’s leaders to rise above it, was the repellent – and repelling – inverse of soft power. Moreover, I said, I had a small personal connection to the issue which would not permit me to let the matter pass without comment.

One of the three women who testified so courageously in Washington, was a woman named Jan Ruff O’Herne, who happened to be the mother of a close friend, the Australian painter Carol Ruff. Born and raised to Dutch parents in the Dutch East Indies, Jan had been a 17 year old girl planning a life as a nun when she and her mother were interned by the Imperial Army in 1942. Jan and other young girls were sent to the city of Semarang, to a brothel for army officers, where she was raped, repeatedly, daily, for many months. Eventually returned to the internment camp, Jan told only her mother, who just held her, and her priest, who told her any hopes she had of becoming a nun were over. At war’s end, the camp was liberated, and she fell in love with a young British soldier, Tom O’Herne, who she married, telling him, and no-one else for the next fifty years, what had happened to her. Despite all, it was a happy marriage, and Jan and Tom raised two daughters, Eileen and Carol, in Australia.^[2]

In 1989, the first few extraordinary Korean women told the story of their abductions and systematic rape by the Imperial Army to their fellow Koreans, and then the wider world, bringing with them the strange and shocking phrase “comfort women”. Jan saw these women on television, and felt that she too had to break the silence of half a century, and sat down to write her story for her daughters in an old school notebook, which later became her remarkable book Fifty Years of Silence^[3]. The Korean women had given her the courage to face the feelings of shame:

The truth is winning. Because, all of a sudden, after 50 years we had the courage to shed the shame.It was a risk I had to take, but I was afraid. Then to have the enormous relief when I had spoken out to be received back among my friends and my parish, and be welcomed and embraced and flowers put on my seat in the church, when I first went to Mass. It was a wonderful reception I had, you know? Mmm. It was good. ^[4]

For her daughters, suddenly many things made sense.

“My mother’s a very beautiful woman”, said Carol. “She’s really attractive and, as a young woman, she was stunning. And, in a sense, sometimes I think that her beauty has also been her disguise. We knew all along that she’d been in prison camp. I’ve never seen my mother as someone with a terrible past that she was hiding from me. Not a hint.”^[5].

Carol and her then husband, the film maker Ned Lander, went on with Jan to make an award-winning film, also called Fifty Years of Silence^[6], about Jan’s story, and most importantly, about her first, anxious visit to Japan after an invitation to speak about what had happened to her, and to so many other girls and young women.

Carol and I were friends from Alice Springs, that hard and special part of Australia where art and politics meet, where Carol painted the spirited landscape.^[7] When the film came out, I was teaching politics in a Japanese university, and organising a fieldwork program for third year students to come to Australia for half a year. Carol was by now living in Sydney, and I asked her if she would consider showing the film to my students, and then talking with them. She had never shown it to a Japanese audience, and was not sure – about her own response or that of the students. 

Beforehand I prepared the students, talking about the historical background, working through the script of the film. On that first occasion, as in many later years, crowded into in Carol’s little Sydney house, the mainly female students watched intently, some in increasing dismay, and some, at least initially, in disbelief or denial, but all shattered by the end, wondering how they could possibly speak to the daughter of this extraordinary woman. And then the conversation, the many-stranded, halting, tearful, wondering conversations that were founded on the rock of authentic witness, began. In later years, Carol and I would start the film off, and then move to coffee in her tiny exquisite garden, catching up on the doings of our families, the quiet gossip about our friends, until it was time to go back in, to wait for the end of the film, and readying ourselves for the electric silence and the talking.   

On stage at the CLSA event, after explaining the Abe statement, I told a little of Jan’s story. I said to Ms Koike that I hoped that for both strategic policy reasons and because of the simple truth of what these women had been saying about their own lives in a committee room in Congress, the Abe administration would change course, and choose a path of historical reconciliation. After all, if a country so deeply imbued with racist attitudes as the Australia of my childhood could overcome most of its war-borne antipathy for Japan, then surely it was possible to at least start that process here. Ms Koike thanked me for my policy advice – with some asperity.

After the session, the atmosphere in the backstage waiting room was a tad awkward for the CLSA suits. I apologised to Ms Koike for ambushing her, but she was unflustered, and brushed any unpleasantness aside. That’s politics she said, smiling. I was about to say to her that Jan Ruff O’Herne was a deeply religious and decent person, outside the world of politics, and except for this issue, which marked her so deeply, she was an “ordinary” person who I felt sure Ms Koike would be able to talk with. 

“Sometimes God asks of us, late in life, to do an amazing task. And this has come to me late in life, you know. Without my faith I couldn’t have even survived the time that I was in the comfort stations. My faith has always been the backbone of my whole life.”^[8]  

Before I was able to say any of these well-meaning, but, as it turned out, naive things, Ms. Koike leaned towards me and said,

“But you know, all this is the work of Korean leftists. There’s nothing to it.”

I was left with my mouth open as she wished me good bye, leaving the room with her minders. I realised that I had just heard the authentic voice of Japanese restorationist nationalism from a woman already spoken of at that time as a future prime minister. If a woman younger than me – and a journalist even! – was in such deep denial, it was clear that there really was nothing useful to be said. 

Just a few months earlier, at the ceremony to open the new Ministry of Defence, Prime Minister Abe declared it

“a landmark event that marks the end of the postwar regime and will lay the groundwork for building a new state.”^[9]

There could not have been a clearer statement of the goal of the first Abe cabinet, which fizzled out ignominiously but typically a few months later. The most extreme nationalist amongst Japanese postwar leaders^[10] (and grandson of war-criminal and later PM Kishi Nobusuke), Abe Shinzo is again the leader of America’s most important ally in the Pacific pivot, and once again, despite American hopes of a return to alliance stability, the issue of sexual slavery is on the Abe agenda. Most ominously, there has been a Cabinet-level suggestion of “revising” the 1993 “Kono statement” over sexual slavery^[11], and Prime Minister Murayama’s 1995 apology.^[12]

Militarily, of course, the process of Heisei militarisation Japan has undertaken over the past two decades has made it into a quiet military powerhouse, much more capable of close and effective operational coordination with the US than at the end of the Cold War.^[13] But politically, Japan is the sick man of Asia, capable of neither building the successor to the late, great Japan Incorporated, nor abjuring the enduring toxins of its colonial and military domination of East and Southeast Asia three generations ago. The United States may well wonder whether the new state Abe has in mind is one that fulfills American hopes.

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