The LDP Presidential Campaign Begins

The LDP Enters the Policy Discussion Phase of its Presidential Election

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 22, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) kicked off its presidential election campaign on September 22. Five lawmakers officially submitted their candidacies to the party on the 22nd with only a 15 minute window to file. The deadline for entries has now passed. All five were losers in the last election a year ago.
 
Having lost the majority in both Houses of the Diet under the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the presidential election should be about how to regain power through reforming the party. Yet the candidates are not talking much about reform.  They are instead focusing on their economic policies for households or maneuvers to attract support from the opposition parties.
 
One of the biggest reasons for the defeats in the 2024 Lower House election and the 2025 Upper House election was the LDP’s kickback fund scandal. It revealed LDP’s mismanagement of political funds without transparency. The opposition parties called for stricter regulation of donations from companies and organizations, which have been the financial lifeline for the LDP.  After receiving protests from LDP lawmakers, Ishiba did not reach a consensus with the opposition on the issue. Ishiba announced his resignation as the LDP president on September 7.
 
The LDP set the presidential election for October 4 and opened the starting gate for campaigns on September 22. Five people have entered the race. They are: former Minister on Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Minister on Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. Each has his or her own platform.
 
Kobayashi is running on three key issues. First, he supports a temporary income tax cut with a fixed rate. The tax cut would provide greater benefits to high-income taxpayers than to low-income ones. Kobayashi would offset the cut with surplus tax revenue in the current year. Second, reflecting his hawkish perspective, Kobayashi supports an increase in the defense budget to more than 2 percent of GDP. Finally, he advocates greater regulation of foreign intervention in communications in Japan.
 
Announcing his candidacy immediately after Ishiba’s announcement, Motegi promises that he will pursue economic growth policies that will increase the annual income of each worker by 10 percent within three years. While other candidates prioritize policy talks with the opposition parties, Motegi aims to assemble a coalition to secure a majority in the Diet.
 
Hayashi would continue the policies of the Ishiba administration in the hope of attracting the votes of Ishiba and his allies. Setting a target of one percent growth in real wages each year, Hayashi would establish a Japanese version of “universal credit,” a social security payment which the United Kingdom has introduced. In addition, to reform the party, he would create a digital platform for real-time communications with the public. He would also amend the party constitution.
 
In her campaign speech at the LDP headquarters, Takaichi emphasized her conservative agenda. This includes greater regulation of foreigners in Japan, limiting the line of succession to the imperial throne to male offspring in the male line, and amendments to Japan’s Constitution. Unusually, however, she would pursue economic policies that include positions held by the opposition parties. These include a refundable tax credit system, a gasoline tax cut, and an increase in the income threshold for tax liability.
 
Finally, Koizumi has actually distanced himself from his platform a year ago. Party “reform” is no longer at the center of his campaign. He has also withdrawn his support for a different surname system and the deregulation of worker dismissals. Instead, Koizumi promises a one-million-yen increase in the annual average wage by FY2030 and domestic investment up to 135 trillion yen. These economic policies were already part of the Ishiba administration’s agenda.
 
Remarkably, none of the five candidates has offered a plan that would settle the dispute over regulation of (or prohibitions on) donations from companies and organizations. The opposition parties have proposed new regulations on and even the abolition of this kind of fundraising. If the LDP insists on this traditional form of fundraising, the party will retain its negative image as an old-line party.
 
In the polls by news organizations, Takaichi has the greatest popularity among general voters. However, among LDP supporters, Koizumi has the greatest support, and only LDP members will vote in the election. There is no certainty that the party election results will be consistent with the popularity of the candidates among the public voters.
 
Five is the largest number of candidates in the history of LDP presidential elections except for the 2024 election, which had nine. Since a candidate can win only with a majority vote, it is almost certain that the election will go to a run-off. Negotiations over policies among the candidates may determine the winner; there is no way to predict which of the five will emerge victoriously.

LDP Rematch

Consolation Match for the Five LDP Presidency Candidates

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 15, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

A week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, the campaign for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began. It has turned into a race with five entrants – all of whom lost in the last election a year ago. The race is likely to be about which candidate can “change” the ailing party’s culture through political funding reform and can manage Diet affairs without a majority in either chamber.
 
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last September, in the face of public criticism of the kickback fund scandal by some factions in the LDP. Ishiba succeeded Kishida in the expectation that he would reform a party that relied heavily on donations from companies and business organizations. Ishiba was caught in the middle of a party struggle over whether to ban those donations.
 
Ishiba had promised last December that he would have a legislative solution to reform political donations by the end of March, but he did not deliver. Instead, he continued to discuss reforms with the opposition parties, some of which demanded the total abolition of donations from companies and organizations.
 
In the Lower House election last October, the LDP lost its majority. Responsibility for the loss fell largely on Kishida since the election took place shortly after Ishiba assumed the PM position. Ishiba could not, however, avoid responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House election last July. “I could not meet the expectation for change,” Ishiba said in his resignation press conference.
 

The LDP called a presidential election on October 4. Candidates must file entry forms on September 22, when the party will officially open the election. Five candidates are reportedly willing to run for the president.
 
Former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was the first to step forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy that would increase take-home pay for many Japanese. This policy resonates with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi also mentioned the possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) that would hold a majority in the Diet.
 
Motegi is running with the support of former colleagues in his now defunct faction, many of whom were leading the anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP after the Upper House election. He also met one-on-one with former prime minister Taro Aso, who openly opposed Ishiba. Polls have shown, however, that many Japanese did not believe that Ishiba should have resigned. This polling data may force Motegi to explain his differences with Ishiba. Motegi will have to develop a plan for party reform.
 
Other candidates try to catch up Motegi. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, announced his candidacy on September 16. As a candidate in the age of 50, representing young generation, Kobayashi upheld policies for young generation, including income tax cut. His team is headed by former Minister of Defense, Yasukazu Hamada, who is elected from Chiba, the same prefecture as Kobayashi.
 
Two ministers in Ishiba Cabinet showed apparent interest in the election on the same day. Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, revealed that he had told his candidacy to his supporters in his hometown, Yokosuka. Although official announcement will be later this week, it is surprising that Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead Koizumi’s team, instead of running for the president.
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, also told his intention to run for the president in his regular press conference. As a core member of Ishiba Cabinet, Hayashi insisted on succeeding policies of Ishiba administration. Supporters for Hayashi consist of lawmakers with former Kishiba faction, supposedly with backing of Kishida himself. He is expected to have another press conference to publicize his policies.
 
Former Minister on Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to officially announce her bid for the president later this week. She mainly receives supports from the conservative lawmakers who were frustrated with Ishiba administration. Reiterating a phrase of “rebuild backbone of the party,” Takaichi hopes to restore the cause of conservatives, which gained momentum in the time of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
 
Takaichi and Koizumi currently dominate. In the election last November, Takaichi finished second and Koizumi third. Both enjoyed broad public support in and did not rely on a specific faction. Takaichi has a firm base of support among conservatives. Koizumi has the support of former premier Yoshihide Suga and younger party members.
 
But neither one is likely to win in the first round. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 296 votes: a majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 for local party members. In any subsequent run-off election local party members have only 47 votes. The successful candidate must win at least 171 votes out of 342.
 
If the run-off pits Takaichi against Koizumi, conservative votes, including those who have supported Kobayashi, will go for Takaichi. Koizumi does not have a similar natural group of supporters. Instead, he must appeal to Ishida’s supporters. This is a tall order because Koizumi had urged Ishiba to step down. With this history, support from some of Ishiba’s allies may be hard to get. Koizumi does have the advantage of a close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation from conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

Motegi and Hayashi both rely on the power of former factions. Motegi cannot count on support from Ishiba, and Hayashi expects Ishiba’s support since he was the deputy in the prime minister’s office. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including the Aso faction, will not suffice as voting units. The LDP factions represented outmoded politics. 
 
The opposition parties have accused the LDP of creating a political vacancy in the election process. Encouraged by public opinion polls showing that the replacement of Ishiba will not raise the LDP’s credibility, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of the previous election a year ago.

Who Does Washington Want To Be Japan's Prime Minister

Someone who speaks English? But probably doesn't understand it.

By Daniel Sneider,  Lecturer, International Policy at Stanford University and APP member

First published in Toyo Keizai, September 12, 2024

As Liberal Democratic Party members struggle to pick the next Prime Minister of Japan, there is a vote that will not be counted but matters a lot – who does Washington want to be Japan’s next leader?

The most obvious answer to that question is that Washington doesn’t care. At the senior levels of government and policymakers, “they could care less,” a former senior government official who remains deeply engaged with Japan told Toyo Keizai. “At the expert level, there are preferences. But no one in Washington is talking about it all.”

One reason for this lack of interest is also obvious – Americans are deeply engaged with their own, highly contested election. But the unique nature of the Japanese party election makes it confusing, not least because of the very large field of candidates. And ultimately, Americans assume, perhaps wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to change Japan’s foreign and domestic policy.

Still, for American policymakers and experts, it matters who emerges as Japan’s next leader. What is most important for the United States is “who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Japanese public, that delivers an economic agenda that is sustainable, that allows Japan to keep up its defense expenditures and encourages the Japanese economy to be a key hub in global supply chains,” says Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the premier Japan experts in Washington.

“Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe [Shinzo] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance,” says Amb Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.

Along with that, Americans are looking for “somebody who can work with the ROK (South Korea), and somebody who has strong domestic support, who can bring the LDP back together.”

That said, Donovan and others I spoke to offer a “huge caveat” – what might happen if leadership changes in the U.S.

If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she “will be looking for the strongest possible Japanese Prime Minister,” says the former senior official, who wished to remain anonymous. “Whereas Trump will be looking for which Prime Minister he can manipulate.”

Abe was able to “both impress the U.S. President and also stand up for Japan. It is really important that whoever meets with Trump is able to exude self-confidence as a global leader.”

Within that broad framework, Japan offers its own views on who might best fit those requirements.

How Washington sees the candidates

Leaving aside the question of the ability to project a reformist image that can rally voters back to the scandal-tarnished conservative ruling party, American policymakers tend to favor the most experienced figures in the LDP, particularly those who have long interacted with Washington.

“Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi [Yoshimasa],” said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read “Observing Japan” newsletter.

“Obviously, he has lots of friends here. He worked on the Hill (Congress). He is the continuity candidate. If you like what the Kishida government has been doing, then Hayashi is your guy.”

Washington knows the other candidates well: former Foreign Minister and current LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu, the current Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko, and former Foreign and Defense Minister Kono Taro. The former senior government official offered this frank, off-the-record assessment of the three, based in part on personal contact.

Motegi’s experience with Washington comes mainly in the trade area, as the negotiator of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and dealing with the Trump administration.

“He is smart, effective, a little bit aggressive – not a typical Japanese, but Americans can deal with that,” says the former official. “He is abrasive, but that doesn’t matter in international affairs.”

As for Kamikawa, “she is the opposite. It's so nice, vanilla-flavored. Washington would think she is chosen because of her gender and being fluent in English.”

Kono is also a potential Prime Minister with long experience in Washington, someone fluent in English, “spends a lot of time with Americans and knows the U.S. reasonably well,” the former official says.

But there are concerns about Kono, particularly in the Pentagon but also the State Department, mainly arising out of his time as Defense Minister and the abrupt cancellation of the Aegis Onshore missile defense program, which shocked Washington. “Kono thinks Americans like him, but that is not true.”

As things stand now, however, none of the ‘experienced’ candidates seem likely to make the final two. That leaves a set of candidates who are not at the top of American lists—former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru, former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, Koizumi Shinjiro, and current Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae.

None of these possible leaders is considered a serious problem for alliance relations—except for rightwing stalwart Takaichi, who has positioned herself as the ideological heir to Abe’s more nationalist agenda.

“Takaichi would make everyone nervous,” says Harris. Her provocative stance on wartime history issues, including plans to make official visits to the Yasukuni shrine to Japan’s war dead, “would upset the apple cart on trilateral ties with the Koreans.” Those worries extend to Koizumi and Kobayashi, who might also visit Yasukuni and sour relations with Korea.

Takaichi appeals to more hawkish elements in Washington, particularly among Trump backers, who see her as more willing to militarily confront China. “She is going to want the same things that some people in Washington want, and they will find a way to work with her,” says Harris.

That view does not extend to other experienced Japan hands in Washington. “It is hard to be too hawkish in Washington these days, but she might be too hawkish for the Washington crowd, at least among Japan hands,” predicted the former senior official.

Ishiba is perhaps the most intriguing and potentially difficult leader for Japan among Americans. Although he garners considerable attention in Japan, he is not that well known in the U.S. He has some support in the Pentagon from his experience as Defense Minister and his interest in weapons development. But he has a reputation as a Japanese Gaullist, someone willing to forge a more independent path for Japan.

“Ishiba is sincere,” comments Harris. “He says what he thinks, and he comes from this tradition that is not going to do what the U.S. wants if it is not in Japan’s interests.”

Harris compares him to Kono, noting that both men have been critical of the protectionist decision to bar Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel. Both men represent “a Japan that can say no, maybe politely, but still say no.”

Ishiba reflects more openly a widely held worry in Japan about U.S. reliability, particularly under a second Trump administration. “He and Trump together talking about burden sharing would be an interesting conversation,” says the former senior official. “He will give as good as he gets.”

The other candidate coming out of the former Abe faction, Kobayashi, is garnering more interest in Washington where some think he could emerge as the second-place candidate. Compared to Takaichi, he is viewed more favorably.

Kobayashi is “very bright, a good communicator, with U.S. experience,” says the former official.

“He is young, interesting, probably someone the U.S. could work with, but who is really going to make decisions if he is Prime Minister.” His interest in economic security is much appreciated by Washington policymakers.

The Koizumi question

That brings us to the last viable option and the current front-runner in opinion polls – Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of the former Prime Minister. He is clearly popular and offers the best chance to restore the damaged image of the LDP.

He has had little to say on foreign policy, focusing almost entirely on internal issues of political reform and encouraging entrepreneurial-led growth.

Koizumi is well-known in American policy circles. His graduate education at Columbia University was followed by an invaluable internship at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, working closely with veteran Japan alliance manager Michael Green. But there are questions about both his lack of experience and his policy views.

“He doesn’t get deep on policy very often,” the former official told Toyo Keizai. “People here would think they have chosen someone attractive to voters, but let’s see if he can handle the job.”

Nonetheless, in a second-round contest between Koizumi and either Ishiba or Takaichi, the Washington experts would tend to favor the young politician.

They assume he would have the backing of the LDP’s heavyweight kingmakers like Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide and would represent a unified party.

For American Japan hands, the bottom line is to have a leader that can continue to project a more assertive role in global affairs.

“If you have a leader that is not strong, that could mean Japan is not going to be as proactive as it has been in the past,” says Brookings’ Solis, author of an important new book on Japan’s leadership role.

Japan has become a key voice in opposition to the deepening of economic nationalism that is “flourishing in the U.S.” and the growth of xenophobic populism. The possibility of a return to isolationism under Trump underlines the importance of Japanese leadership, she says.

None of the possible candidates for LDP leadership would be as disruptive as the experience with the brief period of Democratic Party of Japan rule.

“It is more a question of what kind of Prime Minister is more adept at taking the reins of government in Japan, of providing good economic management assuring that the LDP can get through its agenda.

“If you see a weakening of that control power that we got used to, that brought a more decisive Japan, that would be a challenge.”

LDP's September 27 Presidential Election

Unusual Developments in the LDP’s Presidential Election

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
September 2, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

As the campaign season for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) enters its initial stages, an unprecedentedly substantial number of candidates – twelve – emerged. Some of them have secured the support of the 20 lawmakers necessary for nomination, while others are still searching. However, it is unclear whether the LDP can demonstrate that it has turned away from its old-style politics that have included obscure political funds and a balance of power among factions. 
 
The day after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that he would not pursue another term, he encouraged the Ministers in his Cabinet not to hesitate to run in the LDP presidential election. “There must be someone who will consider running in the presidential election. I hope you can make fair discussions as far as it does not disturb your work,” Kishida told them in a Cabinet Meeting on August 15.
 
Kishida’s comment ignited the race. Some ministers immediately expressed their desire to run. “I hope I can make use of my experiences as minister someday,” said Digital Minister Taro Kono. Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa expressed determination to take action for her candidacy with deliberation. Even Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ken Saito stepped forward, revealing that some of his colleagues expect him to run.
 
Those moves accelerated the decisions of other possible candidates. The next day, Kono met with the boss of his faction, Taro Aso, to request his endorsement. Aso received a similar request from LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. Aso approved Kono’s candidacy and told Motegi that he would not have the support of the faction as a whole.
 
Others announced their candidacies within the following days. In addition to Kono, former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, former Defense Minister and LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi all said that they would run.
 
Former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi and Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi followed. As did former Minister for Women’s Empowerment Seiko Noda, former Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare Katsunobu Kato, and conservative lawmaker Shigeharu Aoyama.
Among those 12, Kobayashi, Ishiba and Kono held press conferences before the end of August. Hayashi, Motegi, Koizumi, Takaichi and Kato will hold theirs in early September. Those eight lawmakers are reportedly confident that they have secured the endorsement of 20 LDP members in the Diet, as required in the LDP presidential election rules. Noda, Aoyama, Kamikawa, and Saito have not yet collected.
 
Under the rules of presidential election, each LDP lawmaker has one vote for a total of 367 votes. Local party members also may vote, but, regardless of the number of local voters, their votes are aggregated to create a pool of votes that are equivalent to 367 of the lawmaker votes. The pool votes are then allocated among the candidates on pro rata basis.
 
Election to the presidency requires a simple majority of the total votes of lawmakers and local, which will be 734, in the first round. If there is no victor in that round, the party will hold a runoff between the two top candidates. While the Diet members still have total 367 votes in the second round, the votes of local party members are reduced to 47, representing each prefectural branch of the party. Each of 47 local votes will go to a candidate who was number one in the prefecture in the first round.
 
A candidate’s prospects can vary considerably between the first and later round. A popular candidate has advantage in the first round because the local votes carry significant weight. But in the later rounds, coalitions among the groups or factions matters can control a majority of the votes because the local member vote is significantly reduced. 
 
When the campaign officially starts on September 12, some of the 12 possible candidates may have dropped out of the race. Not all the candidates will have 20 endorsements. Even among those who do so far, supporters may shift their endorsements from one candidate to another by September 12.
 
If a candidate drops out, his or her supporters will move to other candidates, changing structure of the race. Some candidates will have a first-round advantage and will aggressively seek victory then. Others, however, will shoot for the second round, leading to elaborate arrangements among different groups. That is, the strategy for the second round will be based on factional politics.
 
The biggest topic of discussion so far is Koizumi’s entry into the race. As a young and hopeful lawmaker, whose father is former – and popular – prime minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro Koizumi has changed the trend of the polls and overtaken Ishiba among the responders who would support the LDP, not necessarily the members of the LDP.
 
In the poll of Asahi Shimbun late August, Koizumi held 28 percent among the LDP supporters, leaving Ishiba (23 percent) behind. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who had been the guardian of an earlier trilateral coalition of Ishiba, Koziumi and Kono, announced that he would support Koizumi this time.
 
Since local LDP leaders tend to be older, there is a speculation that the veteran Ishiba has the advantage over the young and unexperienced Koizumi in the local members’ voting on September 27.
 
For the candidates who lack broad popular support, how to survive the first round is a great concern. While they campaign among the local party members as much as they can, they and their supporters must consider how to vote in the second round if they are not one of the top two vote getters.
 
Negotiations for the runoff are ongoing behind the scenes right now. Typically, in an LDP presidential election, some leaders who support different candidates in the first round will seek to form a coalition to take united action in the second-round runoff.
 
Possible candidates for LDP presidential election

Name	Age	Cabinet Minister of	LDP Board	Former Job	University
ISHIBA, Shigeru	67	Defense, Agriculture, Local Revitalization	Secretary General,	Mitsui Bank	Keio
KONO, Taro	61	Digital, MOFA, Defense, Administrative Reform	Public Affairs	Fuji Xerox	Georgetown
KOIZUMI, Shinjiro	43	Environment		Father’s Secretary	Kanto Gakuin
KOBAYASHI, Takayuki	49	Economic Security		MOF	Tokyo
MOTEGI, Toshimitsu	68	MOFA, METI, Economic Revitalization	SG, Election Strategy	McKinsey	Tokyo
HAYASHI, Yoshimasa	63	CCS, MOFA, Defense, Education, Agriculture		Mitsui & Co., Secretary	Tokyo
TAKAICHI, Sanae	63	Economic Security, Internal Affairs	Policy Research	Newscaster	Kobe
KATO, Katsunobu	68	MHLW, CCS, Childbirth	General Council	MOF	Tokyo
KAMIKAWA, Yoko	71	MOFA, Justice, Childbirth		Mitsubishi Research	Tokyo
NODA, Seiko	63	Internal Affairs, Women’s Empowerment, Postal	General Council	Imperial Hotel	Sophia
SAITO, Ken	65	METI, Justice, Agriculture		METI	Tokyo
AOYAMA, Shigeharu	72			Kyodo News	Waseda

(Incumbent is underscored)
 
CDP Race with Old Faces
The leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), will hold its leader’s election on September 23. A former head of the party Yukio Edano and former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda have announced their bids. The incumbent head, Kenta Izumi, plans to run for a second term. He is still collecting endorsements in the party.
 
Although Edano and Noda have secured 20 endorsements (the same threshold as the LDP’s), Izumi still struggles to gather enough. There is little chance for any new face to emerge. A freshwoman, Harumi Yoshida, and some others hope to run, but have little confidence that they can secure 20 endorsements.
  
Noda has said that the election should not be a race of the old faces – yet he has sought and received the support of the veteran kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa. Edano meanwhile is backed by the biggest faction in the CDP, called Sanctuary.
 
In their press conferences for their candidacies, Edano and Noda made clear their intent to take administration back from the LDP. But the way forward is not clear. They try to approach the Democratic Party for the People and Japan. But the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) still rejects cooperation with the CDP. A coalition with the Japan Communist Party (JCP) is not a realistic choice, but Edano and Noda have not denied cooperation with the JCP in some districts.
 
Behind the race between the two veteran leaders, CDP members are frustrated that the party has not achieved an obvious boost in the polls because of the LDP’s slush fund scandal.   
 
The greatest concern for the CDP is not attracting the public attention away from the LDP.
 
Possible candidates for CDP leader’s election

Name	Age	Cabinet Position	Party Board	Former Job	University
EDANO, Yukio	60	CCS, METI, Administrative Reform	Head	Lawyer	Tohoku
NODA, Yoshihiko	67	Prime Minister, MOF	Head (DPJ)	Chiba Prefectural Assembly	Waseda
IZUMI, Kenta	50		Head	Secretary	Ritsumeikan
YOSHIDA, Harumi	52			Secretary	Rikkyo
MABUCHI, Sumio	64	MLIT	Diet Affairs	General, Co.	Yokohama National
EDA, Kenji	68		SG (Your Party)	METI	Tokyo

(Incumbent is underscored)

Kishida Stands Down

How new will the next Japanese PM be?

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
August 21, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

On August 14, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced at his press conference that he would not run in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election this coming September. His campaign would have been for a second term as president of the LDP. The new party leader elected on September 27 will become the next prime minister of Japan by virtue of the LDP’s voting power in the Diet. 

An extraordinary session of the Diet is expected next month after the LDP election in order to vote on the next prime minister. The date has not yet been selected. When it is, this will mark the end of the current highly unusual political situation in which a wildly unpopular prime minister has overstayed his tenure.

In his press conference, Kishida emphasized the need for change in the LDP. “It is necessary for the LDP to show its change before the nation. The first step for it, which is very easy for the people to understand, is that I am going to stand down. I will not run for coming presidential election,” said Kishida. His diplomatic work had ended the day before after a telephone call with the prime minister of Mongolia.

In aftermath of the LDP slush fund scandal, Kishida lost public confidence when he failed to explain how and why the kickback system of ticket sales for fundraising parties was created and operated. His inability to regain public support led to miserable defeats in the April by-elections of the House of Representatives. These losses generated serious concerns among LDP lawmakers about the coming elections of both houses of the Diet.

Kishida alienated himself from other LDP lawmakers by dissolving his faction, the Kochi-kai, and then by appearing before the Political Ethics Council of the Diet to describe his own involvement in the slush fund scandal while urging other LDP lawmakers to take responsibility. The lawmakers were frustrated with Kishida and demanded his resignation. Under these circumstances, Kishida could not keep his administration going.

Kishida confessed, as the LDP president, he felt responsible when details of the slush fund scandal first began to emerge. This created expectations that he would step down over the summer. And he has.

The race to succeed Kishida will be short and fast. Former LDP Secretary General and former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba announced his candidacy, if he would be able to secure necessary nominators, as soon as Kishida ended his press conference. The current Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, has not hidden his ambition either. Within hours of Kishida’s announcement, Motegi had a one-on-one meeting with LDP Vice President Taro Aso.

The race likely will be between those two men. Two former prime ministers, Aso and Yoshihide Suga, who hope to maintain behind-the-scenes leadership, may influence the race. Aso would prefer Motegi in order to control the next administration. Ishiba would be the better vehicle for Suga. But it is unclear whether Ishiba will want or need Suga’s support.

Other possible contenders include Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi. However, each of them is still struggling to marshal support in the LDP. Kono’s faction boss, Aso, has yet to endorse him. Takaichi has not expanded her wing of the LDP beyond ultra conservatives. And Kobayashi has not built a significant youth movement.

One of the biggest obstacles for the lesser contenders is LDP election law. Article 10 of the Rules for Election of President of the LDP states that “only those members nominated by at least 20 Party Diet members shall be accepted as candidates.” Collecting 20 supporters is not easy, because those supporters will be isolated if their candidate loses in the presidential election. Twenty supporters have to be ready for exclusion from cabinet posts and party leadership positions, if they fail. The 20-person requirement means that four or five candidates would be the maximum number. 

So long as the 20 party-member requirement remains in place, factional politics will be the order of the day. The supporters of the winner become mainstream in the next administration and act as a quasi-faction. To maintain collective power in politics, LDP lawmakers take collective action. The meeting between two leaders of the former Kochi-kai, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and former Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera, on the same day of Kishida’s announcement demonstrated that they would maintain their factions.

Both the former Abe and Nikai factions are too fragmented after the slush fund scandal to unite in the presidential election. Some members are no longer affiliated with the LDP. It is possible that the LDP will field new candidates against their former members in the next election. That is what former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi did in the postal reform election in 2005 against his political enemies. An old-time kingmaker, Shin Kanemaru, once said that factional breakdown was “dispersed horse manure in a river stream (maguso-no-kawa-nagare).”

Although young LDP lawmakers have expressed concerns about factional politics, the LDP has no choice. The opposition parties criticize the LDP’s routine replacement of a leader in order to escape responsibility for any failure, in this case the slush fund scandal. The opposition also derides the LDP’s factional politics as old-fashioned.

Yet, it is undeniable that the LDP remains the choice of voters in Japan. The opposition parties have not presented a clear alternative to the LDP. They have never agreed on basic policies such as constitutional amendments or nuclear power generation. It is necessary for them to propose which parties will construct a new administration and who will be the prime minister. The leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, needs to discuss its idea for a new administration in its September 23 presidential election—four days prior to the LDP’s presidential election.