Ishiba Isolated

Going it alone, with the public

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

In a Joint Plenary Meeting (JPM) on September 2, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wrapped up its assessment of their disastrous July 20 Upper House elections. The party attributed the defeat to the slush fund scandal, and it did not explicitly refer to the responsibility of the party president and prime minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Ishiba announced his willingness to continue as the prime minister in the meeting and apologized for the loss of seats in the election. However, four LDP leaders, including Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, offered their resignations to Ishiba. Ishiba now appears to be isolated from the LDP leadership.

The political struggle in the LDP over replacing Ishiba has continued even after the mid-August commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Asia-Pacific’s War’s end. Anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP have been trying to gather votes for an early presidential election, and LDP leaders have been trying to block that effort.

Following up on a decision of the JPM last month, on August 8, the LDP plans to hear from its lawmakers and local branches on whether the party should hold a presidential election before the end of Ishiba’s term, which expires in September 2027. The LDP constitution provides that an early election will take place when a majority of LDP lawmakers, which currently is 295, plus a majority of 47 local branches request one. Now, the majority consists of 172 votes or more.

The LDP Presidential Election Committee has decided that the requests for an early election will not be anonymous. The decision will make it difficult for party members to gather enough votes to request such an election -- that is, to demand Ishiba’s resignation – because they are afraid of retribution from Ishiba if the vote falls short.

In midst of this party struggle, another JPM was held on September 2. A special committee reviewing the Upper House election submitted a report to the JPM. It concluded that the LDP’s defeat was caused primarily by the secret fund scandal. The report also observed that voters had not accepted the LDP’s measures on price inflation and that a gaffe by an LDP member damaged the image of the party. The report did not place responsibility on Ishiba. The report concluded that the party needs to “restart from dissolution,” a phrase which has often been used in crises of the party in the past.

In the JPM on September 2, Ishiba announced that he would stay on as the LDP president and prime minister. “I could not meet the people’s demand for change,” said Ishiba, recognizing his role in the defeat in the Upper House election. He emphasized his willingness to advance his agenda, including tariff negotiations with the United States, agricultural policy, slowing price inflation, and disaster prevention. Recognizing his responsibility for the lost seats and not clinging to his position as prime minister, Ishiba said that he would make “a decision” on his presidency in a proper time.

His senior staff members took another way – four of them revealed their intention to resign. Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama announced in the JPM that he would step down to take responsibility for the electoral defeat. Three other leaders, Itsunori Onodera, the chief of the policy council, Shunichi Suzuki, the chair of the general council, and Seiji Kihara, the chair of the election committee also submitted letters of resignation. “You too?” Ishiba reportedly murmured when he received them. He now must decide whether to accept them.

The LDP has entered the official process to consider whether to hold an early presidential election. LDP lawmakers and local branches who favor an early election must submit those requests by September 8. If the party receives 172 or more such requests, an early presidential election will be held. A heavyweight in the LDP, Taro Aso, announced that he would demand such an election.

According to Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey of the lawmakers and local branches, 128 will vote for an early election. Only 33 have formally taken the position that an election is unnecessary. The remaining 181 lawmakers or branches have not yet decided or are unwilling to communicate their decisions.

Polls show that Ishiba retains a material measure of popular support. In a poll taken by Yomiuri Shimbun in late August, 50 percent of respondents thought Ishiba did not have to resign, while 42 percent thought he should. When asked about the reason for the loss in the Upper House election, 81 percent placed responsibility on the LDP lawmakers who were involved in the political funds scandal. Fifty percent of all respondents thought Ishiba’s responsibility was great, but this percentage is much lower than the percentage that attributes the loss to the scandal.

Even more favorable to Ishiba is a gradual increase in his approval rating. In a poll taken by the Mainichi Shimbun, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet was 33 percent, a four percentage point increase from July. According to the poll, Ishiba is the most suitable person as prime minister with the support of 21 percent of the respondents, followed by Sanae Takaichi with 14 percent and Shinjiro Koizumi with nine percent.

As anti-Ishiba movements spread in the LDP, the difference between anti-Ishiba powers in the party and public opinion widens. If the LDP replaces the president, there is no assurance that the party will be able to regain the power to lead an administration based on a minority government. The LDP lawmakers and local branches face a choice to oust Ishiba to attract public attention or rebuild the party under his leadership.

But what is the alternative

Ishiba Fighting to Stay in Power

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
August 4, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

Despite pressure from several lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is resisting demands that he resign. He is trying to take the initiative in the LDP’s internal discussions on responsibility for the party’s defeat in Upper House election in July. He is also discussing legislation with opposition parties in the Diet. The struggle over LDP leadership is likely to continue into the fall.
 
The LDP convened an unofficial Joint Plenary Meeting (JPM) on July 28. A JPM is a forum for internal party discussions but has no authority to decide on behalf of the party. At the unofficial JPM, the LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama said that, after the party had reviewed its campaign strategy, he would make clear his responsibility for the setback. His statement was widely reported as an intent to step down as secretary general. His resignation would do almost fatal damage to the Ishiba administration.
 
Moriyama meanwhile out-maneuvered anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP. He agreed to convene an official JPM on August 8, which Ishiba’s opponents in the LDP had requested. These lawmakers had been collecting signatures in support of a JPM, but Moriyama’s decision supersedes this effort. The JPM will be held not at the request of anti-Ishiba members, but at the initiative of Moriyama.
 
This means that Moriyama can set the agenda for the JPM on August 8. The JPM is the second decision-making body, after the Party Convention. Article 33 of the LDP Constitution states that a JPM deliberates and decides particularly important issues of party management and Diet affairs. Moriyama has set the agenda of the JPM as “review of Upper House election and revitalization of the party,” excising “replacement of LDP leadership” as an agenda item.
 
The Party Constitution contains no rule for replacing the president at a JPM; instead, it simply says that, in an emergency, the JPM (rather than the Party Convention) can elect a president, when the current president vacates his or her seat. Ishiba has shown no intention to do so. It is unlikely for August 8 JPM to be a meeting for replacing the president.
 
There is another way to replace Ishiba. Article 6 of LDP Constitution provides that a presidential election will be held at the request of more than half of total party Diet members and a representative from each local branch of the party.
 
Anti-Ishiba groups have considered invoking Article 6 and garnering support from lawmakers and local branches. However, the provision has not been invoked since it was added to the constitution in 2002, when former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori stepped down during a prolonged struggle in the party. A presidential election based on Article 6 could damage the party significantly.
 
If Ishiba shows no inclination to step down, it will be hard for LDP members to replace him. “The only way is to explain without escaping,” Ishiba said to reporters after the unofficial JPM on July 28. Ishiba earlier had told opposition leaders in a meeting on July 25 that he would not resign as prime minister.
 
Ishiba is now devoting himself to policies, expecting that implementation of his agenda will be sufficient cause for others to support him remaining in office. Debates in the Diet on August 4 reflected a consensus that Japan must have a written agreement with the United States to reduce tariffs on Japanese cars. Ishiba made it clear that he was willing to formalize such an agreement in Japan’s national interest.
 
A summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to confirm the tariff agreement is Ishiba’s fondest wish. The opposition would favor a meeting too, knowing how difficult it would be to arrange. The Anti-Ishiba group in the LDP has a different reason: it would be Ishiba’s last act as prime minister. 
 
Ishiba may also be able to survive by working with opposition parties to find common ground on legislation. The leading coalition, the LDP and Komeito, has agreed with the four major opposition parties -- the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai), and the Japan Communist Party (JCP) – on legislation to abolish the temporary gasoline surtax by the end of the year.
 
In 1974, the government placed a “temporary” gasoline surtax on top of the ordinary gasoline tax to finance the construction and repair of public roads. More than 50 years on, this temporary measure remains on the books. The opposition parties introduced a bill in the ordinary session of the Diet in June that would have abolished the surtax, but the LDP-Komeito coalition, with a majority in the Upper House, defeated it.  
 
The coalition has now lost that power. LDP and Komeito have joined with the four opposition parties to establish a task group to develop a proposal to eliminate the surtax.   With concessions like this from the LDP-Komeito coalition, the opposition parties spared Ishiba from a no-confidence resolution in the extraordinary session in August.
 
To avoid provoking conservatives in the LDP, Ishiba reportedly walked away from his planned release of a statement on August 15 marking the 80^th anniversary of the end of World War II. He has hinted that he may postpone a statement to September or later.
 
August is ordinarily the time for politicians to return home and pray on August 15 for Japan’s war victims. No rest for the weary this year, however. Both Ishiba and his opponents will use the time to rebuild their strategies to eliminate the other. The struggle will intensify in late August when the LDP wraps up its review of the Upper House election.