Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule May 25-31, 2015

Monday, May 25, 2015

AM
08:00 At private residence (no visitors)
08:43 Depart from private residence
08:56 Arrive at office
09:30 The second meeting of the Cyber Security Strategy Headquarters
09:35 Meeting ends
09:41 Receive a proposal from the Science and Technology Parliamentary Association
10:01 End reception
10:12 Meet with Secretary-General of Headquarters for Abduction Issue Ishikawa Shoichiro
10:27 End meeting with Mr. Ishikawa
10:29 Meet with Minister of Defense Nakatani Gen, Director of National Security Council (NSC) Yachi Shotaro, MOFA’s Director-General of International Legal Affairs Bureau Akiba Takeo, and Ministry of Defense (MOD)’s Director-General of Bureau of Defense Policy Kuroe Tetsuo

11:32 End meeting with Mr. Nakatani, Mr. Yachi, Mr. Akiba, and Mr. Kuroe

PM
12:12 Depart from office
12:19 Arrive at Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery. Attend the Ceremony of Reverence, lay a wreath
12:45 Depart from Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery
12:54 Arrive at office
01:36 Film video message for medical science-related activity
01:59 End filming
02:01 Meet with Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy Amari Akira, Vice-Minister of Cabinet Office Matsuyama Kenji, Cabinet Office Director-General for Policies on Cohesive Society Maekawa Mamoru, Cabinet Office Director-General for Policies on Cohesive Society Habuka Shigeki, Cabinet Office’s Director-General for Policies on Cohesive Society Tawa Hiroshi
02:34 End meeting with Mr. Amari, Mr. Matsuyama, Mr. Maekawa, Mr. Habuka, and Mr. Tawa
02:35 Meet with Former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Masuda Hiroya
03:12 End meeting with Mr. Masuda
03:20 Meet with Administrative Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Nagamine Yasumasa
04:02 End meeting with Mr. Nagamine
04:03 Meet with Ministry of Finance (MOF)’s Deputy Vice-Minister Fukuda Junichi and MOF’s Director-General of Tax Bureau Sato Shinichi
04:29 End meeting with Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Sato

Suga and Yamaguchi think shirt itches

04:33 Presentation of Kariyushi Shirt from the Governor of Okinawa Prefecture Takeshi Onaga. Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide and Minister of State for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs Yamaguchi Shunichi also attend
04:45 Presentation ends
04:53 Depart from office
04:54 Arrive at Diet
04:55 Enter LDP Secretary-General’s Conference Room
04:56 Endorse the Governor candidate for Gunma Prefecture. Photograph Session
04:58 Leave LDP Secretary-General’s Conference Room
04:59 Enter LDP President’s Office
05:01 LDP Officers Meeting
05:20 Meeting ends
05:38 Speak with Chairman of LDP Election Strategy Committee Motegi Toshimitsu
05:42 Leave LDP President’s Office
05:43 Depart from Diet
05:45 Arrive at office
06:14 Reception for Prime Minister of Malaysia Dato’ Sri Haji Mohd Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak. Commemoration Photograph Session.
06:15 Ceremony by the guard of honor
06:21 Ceremony ends
06:23 Japan-Malaysia Summit Meeting with Prime Minister Najib Razak
07:19 Summit meeting ends
07:22 Joint Press Announcement
07:36 Joint Press Announcement ends
07:37 Depart from office
07:38 Arrive at the official residence. Banquet hosted by Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and wife Akie
08:56 Send off Prime Minister Najib Razak and his spouse Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor
08:58 Send-off ends

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

AM
12:00 At official residence (no visitors)
07:27 Depart from office
07:32 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seko Hiroshige
08:13 End meeting with Mr. Seko
08:24 Cabinet meeting
08:40 Cabinet meeting ends
08:41 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu
09:53 End meeting with Mr. Kato
09:54 Depart from office
09:56 Arrive at Diet
09:57 Enter Upper House Committee Room No. 43
10:00 Meeting of the Committee on Health, Labour, and Welfare of the Upper House

PM
12:03 Meeting adjourns. Leave Upper House Committee Room No. 43
12:04 Depart from Diet
12:06 Arrive at office
12:36 Depart from office
12:38 Arrive at Diet
12:40 Enter LDP President’s Office
12:41 Meet with Chief Representative of Japan Innovation Party Matsuno Yorihisa
12:49 End meeting with Mr. Matsuno
12:50 Leave LDP President’s Office
12:52 Enter Lower House Speaker’s Reception Room
12:55 Meet with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Aso Taro and Minister of Defense Nakatani Gen
12:59 End meeting with Mr. Aso and Mr. Nakatani
01:00 Leave Lower House Speaker’s Reception Room, enter Lower House Chamber
01:02 Plenary session of the Lower House
04:01 Plenary session adjourns, leave Lower House Chamber
04:02 Depart from Diet
04:04 Arrive at office
04:05 Meet with Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Miyazawa Yoichi and State Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Takagi Yosuke
04:23 End meeting with Mr. Miyazawa and Mr. Takagi
04:48 Meet with Director of National Security Council (NSC) Yachi Shotaro, Director of Cabinet Intelligence Kitamura Shigeru, and Director of Cabinet Satellite Intelligence Center Shimohira Koji
04:56 Mr. Yachi and Mr. Shimohira leave
05:08 Mr. Kitamura leaves
05:17 Meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
06:22 Meeting ends
06:28 Ceremony to Present the Commendations for Contributors to Consumer Support for FY2015
06:40 Ceremony ends
06:56 Receive a courtesy call from a delegation led by Chairman of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee of the United States Michael D. Rogers
07:13 Courtesy call ends
07:15 Depart from office
07:32 Arrive at Italian restaurant Ristorante ASO. Dinner meeting with Chairman of the ANA Holdings Inc.’s Board Ito Shinichiro and President of ANA Holdings Inc. Katanozaka Shinya
09:01 Depart from the restaurant.
09:09 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

AM
12:00 At private residence (no visitors)
07:14 Depart from private residence
07:27 Arrive at office
08:54 Depart from office
08:56 Arrive at Diet
08:58 Enter Lower House Committee Room No. 1
09:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community

PM
12:01 Meeting adjourns
12:02 Leave Lower House Committee Room No. 1
12:04 Depart from Diet
12:05 Arrive at office
12:54 Depart from office
12:55 Arrive at Diet
12:57 Enter Lower House Committee Room No. 1
01:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community reopens
05:02 Meeting adjourns
05:03 Leave Lower House Committee Room No. 1
05:05 Depart from Diet
05:07 Arrive at office
05:13 Meeting of the Ministerial Council on the Monthly Economic Report and Other Relative Issues
05:27 Meeting ends
05:28 Speak with Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ohta Akihiro
05:30 Finish speaking with Mr. Ohta
05:43 Meet with Chairman of LDP General Council Nikai Toshihiro, former Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Nishikawa Koya, and others
06:17 End meeting with Mr. Nikai, Mr. Nishikawa, and others
06:22 Depart from office
06:31 Arrive at Palace Hotel Tokyo in Marunouchi, Tokyo. Attend a party hosted by LDP faction Santo in banquet hall Aoi within the hotel, deliver an address.
06:41 Depart from the hotel
06:49 Arrive at Japanese restaurant Kurosawa in Nagata-Cho, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with President of Nippon Television Holdings, Inc. Okubo Yoshio, journalist Goto Kenji, and others
09:37 Depart from the restaurant
09:53 Arrive at private residence

Thursday, May 28, 2015

AM
12:00 At private residence (no visitors)
07:12 Depart from private residence
07:24 Arrive at office
07:26 Meet with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu
08:53 End meeting with Mr. Kato
08:54 Depart from office
08:55 Arrive at Diet
08:57 Enter Lower House Committee Room No. 1
09:03 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community

PM
12:02 Meeting adjourns
12:03 Leave Lower House Committee Room No. 1
12:05 Depart from Diet
12:06 Arrive at office
12:47 Meet with Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide
12:54 Depart from office
12:55 Arrive at Diet
12:57 Enter Lower House Committee Room No. 1
01:00 Meeting of the Special Committee of the House of Representatives on the Legislation for Peace and Security of Japan and the International Community reopens
05:04 Meeting adjourns
05:05 Leave Lower House Committee Room No. 1
05:07 Depart from Diet
05:08 Arrive at office
05:19 National Security Council meeting
05:54 Meeting ends
06:03 Depart from office
06:11 Arrive at Hotel New Otani in Kioi-Cho, Tokyo. Attend a party hosted by LDP Lower House member Hosoda Hiroyuki in banquet hall Ho-Oh-No-Ma, deliver address
06:22 Depart from office
06:40 Arrive at Japanese restaurant Shinbashi Matsuyama in Ginza, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seko Hiroshige and others
07:21 Depart from the restaurant
07:27 Arrive at steakhouse Kawamura in Ginza, Tokyo. Dinner meeting with Chairman of LDP General Council Nikai Toshihiro, LDP Lower House member Kawamura Takeo, and others
09:28 Depart from the steakhouse
09:48 Arrive at private residence

The suicide politics of Futenma relocation

Prospects on the MCAS Futenma Issue

By Ms. Yukie Yoshikawa, Adjunct Fellow, Edwin O. Resichauer Center, School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University and APP member

First appeared in Nikkei Business, September 17, 2015 in Japanese

Newly elected Okinawa Governor Takeshi Onaga, supported by both conservatives and reformists, which is quite a rare phenomenon in Okinawa, announced his team leaders on the US military base issues at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015. Mr. Mitsuo Ageta, the former speaker of the Naha City Assembly, was appointed as Vice Governor (VG) in charge of base issues--the Okinawa Prefectural Government (OPG) has two vice governors. Mr. Masaru Machida was appointed Director General of the Governor’s Office. He had been an executive at the Okinawa Churashima Foundation, an affiliated organization of the OPG. VG Ageta used to be a member of the Okinawa Chapter of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), yet left after the party switched its policy on the Henoko plan from "against" to "accommodation." He formed the Shimpuh-kai (New Wind Group) as a counter. 

The Regional Security Policy Division, of which I was a member, is still alive. People wondered whether this section could survive the Onaga administration, since it was created by his predecessor, Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima. Gov. Onaga replaced this division with one named to clearly express its intent that is to deal with “the issue on the construction of new Henoko base” and called it more directly the Henoko Base Construction Countermeasures Division [ 辺野古新基地建設対策課].

Onaga can play only “All-or-Nothing” negotiation
Despite his landslide victory in the November 2014 gubernatorial election, Gov. Onaga’s power base is not solid. As his slogan during the campaign was “all-Okinawa,” Mr. Onaga limits his own maneuverable space to the minimum. In other words, all he can say  “No Henoko” and “No Ospreys” are acceptable by all Okinawans, including supporters of the US military bases. “All-Okinawa” does not indicate any realistic compromise. Should he make a statement beyond “No Henoko” his power base shatter.

In other words, Gov. Onaga can only play an “all-or-nothing” game, namely accept everything he says or no deal. Thus, he cannot be a reasonable negotiator with either the Government of Japan (GOJ) or the US Government (USG).

Since the inauguration of the Onaga administration in December 2014, senior officials of the GOJ have refused to meet Gov. Onaga. This was considered  “extra-ordinary.” (Other governors rarely meet with the prime ministers.) This “all-Okinawa” phenomenon has never happened since the return of Okinawa to Japan in 1972. People speculated that Tokyo viewed Naha, the capital of Okinawa Prefecture, cautiously, wondering whether the Governor could maintain his power base with both conservatives and reformists.

Nevertheless, Gov. Onaga and senior officials of the GOJ did start to meet in April 2015. In August, the two parties held a series of meetings discussing how to reduce Okinawa’s hosting responsibility and on the economic development. The last one was September 7th. It ended with no conclusion.

During the meetings, Gov. Onaga did not step back from his “No Henoko” stance, however hard the Abe cabinet tried. In office barely a half year--out of four--it is unreasonable to expect the governor to destroy his power base by backing down. This would be political suicide.

Gov. Onaga has few options to take
What can Gov. Onaga do to stop the landfill at Cape Henoko? Gov. Onaga’s advisory committee issued a report in July 2015 concluding that there were flaws in the process of Gov. Nakaima’s approval. The Ministry of Defense (MOD) resumed its boring investigation on September 12th, soon after the break-up of the intensive August and September meetings between the GOJ and the OPG. Gov. Onaga reacted to this by starting a procedure to cancel the landfill authorization on September 14th. This legal process is expected to take about a month.

Still, the OPG is powerless if the Abe cabinet simply ignores it. The OPG can appeal to the court to stop the landfill, but the court has no authority to interrupt the boring investigation and its ensuing landfill until a verdict is given. this could be months or years. Should the OPG win at the court after the landfill is completed, the result is that no one can bring back the nature as before. Thus, Gov. Onaga’s cancellation of the landfill is nothing other than a political performance.

Left in Gov. Onaga’s hand is un-approving any petitions for changes and additions to the original plan. The plan was submitted by the MOD to Gov. Nakaima in March 2013. At the time, the MOD did not anticipate working with an unfriendly OPG to develop or alter the plan.  The results of the boring investigation are certain to cause construction changes. Onaga could use these changes to stop the landfill and slow down the project.

Driving Gov. Onaga to the corner simply drives Okinawans to protests
Gov. Onaga has very limited options. Is it politically productive to force him to say yes to the Henoko plan? Sure, he might approve change petitions to smooth the landfill.

On the other hand, once the Okinawans hear that Gov. Onaga has succumb to the Abe cabinet, the anger demonstrated at the gubernatorial election in 2014 would explode at Cape Henoko. Okinawan people have made clear their rejection of the Henoko plan many times through elections. LDP administrations, however, have forced their leaders to “flipflop.” Okinawans view this as negligence against their will. If their voices raised democratically are unheard, they believe they have no choice but to resort to force at the construction site.

In Tokyo, I am often asked whether the protesters at Cape Henoko are non-Okinawans, mostly “professional” protesters similar to those during the construction of Narita Airport. There is no official and accurate data on where these protesters come from and I doubt such question is relevant for two reasons:

1. First, during the American Occupation (1945-72), the islanders in Ie-Island and other parts of Okinawa protested and succeeded in stopping the construction of  US military bases and expansion. Okinawans can protest with success by themselves, without the help from others.
2. Second, casualties caused by wrestling with the police and Coast Guard during protests or lying before the bulldozers and circling the landfill site with small  boats (slight injuries have already occured), would encourage  Okinawans to massively and aggressively embrace anti-base sentiments and demand the removal of all base, regardless of where the hometown of the casualty is.

If this happened would the Abe cabinet have the capability to deal with such situation? Also, would the USG, especially the US Forces in Okinawa (USFO), want to expand such anti-base sentiments in Okinawa? The USG wants the GOJ to manage prudently Okinawa to keep the islands safe enough to deploy its forces. The USG should not want to miss the forest (the USFO, especially Kadena Air Base) from the trees (the Futenma Air Station).

Paradoxically, the more the Abe cabinet pushes Gov. Onaga into a corner, the more Okinawans are driven to resort to force, which is a political suicide to the GOJ. The worst scenario can be avoided only by understanding this logic in Okinawa, by seriously searching for alternatives to the Henoko plan, and by seriously addressing the necessity to reduce the heavy hosting responsibility of Okinawa.