Monday Asia Events October 21, 2024

SECURING ENERGY BY RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER - POWER VERSUS RULE. 10/21, 9:00am-1:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors: Reischauer Center, SAIS, Johns Hopkins; Japan Economic Foundation. Speakers: Yukari Niwa Yamashita, Managing Director, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan; Hirotaka Ishii, Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security; Christopher Elsner, Associate Director in Energy-Wide Perspectives for S&P Global Commodity; Dr.Jennifer F. Sklarew, George Mason University, the Department of Environmental Science and Policy; Kenta Hirami; Associate Professor, University of Nagasaki; Kiyoshi Tanigawa, Executive Director, Keidanren USA; Ambassador David Shear. fmr. Ambassador to Vietnam, Senior Advisor, Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins University (SAIS); Ambassador Kenneth Juster, fmr. Ambassador to India, Distinguished Fellow, CFR. 

THE FUTURE OF THE U.S.-ROK ALLIANCE. 10/21, 9:30-10:15am (EDT), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Dr. Park Jin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea from 2022 to 2024; Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair, CSIS; Mark Lippert, Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Korea Chair, CSIS. 

RELIGION AND HUMAN RIGHTS FROM THE UDHR TO DIGNITATIS HUMANAE. 10/21, 1:00-5:00pm, 10/22, 9:00am-1:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Georgetown University. Speakers: M. Cathleen Kaveny, Darald and Juliet Libby Professor, Boston College; José Casanova, scholars, senior fellow, Berkley Center; Meghan J. Clark, associate professor, moral theology, St. John’s University, New York; Mary Doak, associate professor of theology and religious studies, University of San Diego; Linda Hogan, professor of ecumenics, School of Religion, Trinity College Dublin; Rev. David Hollenbach, S.J., Pedro Arrupe Distinguished Research Professor, Walsh School of Foreign Service; senior fellow, Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs; affiliated professor, Department of Theology and Religious Studies, Georgetown University; Dr. Pantelis Kalaitzidis, director, Volos Academy for Theological Studies (Volos, Greece), member, Executive Committee, European Academy of Religion (Bologna, Italy); David Little, research fellow, Georgetown University’s Berkley Center; Dr. Maryann Cusimano Love, tenured professor of international relations, Catholic University of America, expert, international security and peacebuilding. 

GEOPOLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FINANCE: KNOWNS AND UNKNOWNS. 10/21, 9:00am-4:35pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsors: Peterson Institute (PIIE), Bank of International Settlements (BIS), WTO. Speakers Include: Richard Baldwin, IMD Business School, PIIE; Linda S. Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank, New York; Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stanford Graduate School of Business; Mary E. Lovely, PIIE; Susan M. Lund, International Finance Corporation; Ralph Ossa, WTO; Adam S. Posen, PIIE; Hyun Song Shin, BIS; Yeo Han-koo, PIIE. 

BARRIERS AND BREAKTHROUGHS: BUILDING AND FUTURE U.S. MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE. 10/21, 9:00-10:00am (EDT). IN-PERSON. Sponsor: Semafor. Speakers include: Neera Tanden, Domestic Policy Advisor to President Biden, White House; Christian Meisner, Chief Human Resources Officer, GE Aerospace. 

ASIAN-AMERICANS EYE THE U.S. ELECTIONS: A VIEW FROM CAPITOL HILL WITH CONGRESSMAN DON BEYER. 10/21, 10:30-11:30am (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: US-Philippines Society, Vietnam Society, United States-Indonesia Society. Speaker: Congressman Don Beyer (D-VA). 

AIRPOWER OPTIONS FOR JAPAN. 10/21, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Program on US-Japan Relations at Harvard University. Speaker: Eric Heginbotham, Principal Research Scientist, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 

NAVIGATING NEW GLOBAL DYNAMICS: CHALLENGES AND POLICIES. 10/21, 2:30-4:15pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Global Economy and Development program at Brookings, jointly with the Korea Development Institute (KDI). Speakers: Richard E. Baldwin, Professor of International Economics, IMD Business School, Lausanne, Editor-in-Chief, VoxEU; Eswar Prasad, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings; Laura Tyson, Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley, fmr. Chair, Council of Economic Advisers, Director, National Economic Council., Daehee Jeong, Senior Fellow and Senior Director, Department of Macroeconomic and Financial Policies - Korea Development Institute. 
PURCHASE BOOK,  New Global Dynamics: Managing Economic Change in a Transforming World: https://amzn.to/4dLizRs

ON XI JINPING WITH AMBASSADOR KEVIN RUDD. 10/21, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT). HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: author Amb. Kevin Rudd, Australian Ambassador to the United States, former Australian Prime Minister; John J. Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS; Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair, China Studies.  PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/47PQRll

PUTIN'S RED LINES: DOES HE MEAN WHAT WE THINK WE HEARD? 10/21, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES), The Russia Program at GW. Speakers: TBA. 

REMARKS BY MINISTER MOHAMMED AL-JADAAN OF SAUDI ARABIA. 10/21, 5:15pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Peterson Institute (PIIE). 

HOW “SUPERSTAR FIRMS” SHAPED SOUTH KOREA’S ECONOMIC MIRACLE. 10/21, 5:00pm (PDT), 8:00pm (EDT). VIRTUAL. Sponsors:  Seoul National University and the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Speakers: Jaedo Choi, Economist, Federal Reserve Board; Seula Kim, Assistant Professor, Pennsylvania State University (Discussant); Munseob Lee, Assistant Professor, Director of the Korea Pacific Program, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (Moderator). 

BOOK TALK: THREAT MULTIPLIER: CLIMATE, MILITARY LEADERSHIP, AND THE FIGHT FOR GLOBAL SECURITY. 10/21, 5:00-7:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Women's Foreign Policy Group. Speakers: author Sherri Goodman, leader, senior executive, lawyer, director, national security, climate change, energy, science, oceans, environment; Meaghan Parker, Executive Director, Council for the Advancement of Science Writing. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/487cEoG

CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE CROSSROADS: NATIONAL SECURITY AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES. 10/21, 5:00-6:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. Speaker: Richard R. Verma, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources. 

WILL U.S. LEADERSHIP IN ASIA AND THE WORLD LAST? 10/21, 6:30-7:30pm (EDT). IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Asia Society Policy Institute. Speakers: Amb. Wendy R. Sherman, Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State; Stephen Biegun, Senior Vice President, Global Public Policy, Boeing Company; Daniel Russel, Vice President, International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute.  Fee.

Japan’s House of Representatives Dissolved

Now What?

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 15, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives (Lower House) on October 9. All the seats were immediately open for election. The general election campaign begins on October 15, and voting takes place on October 27.
 
With the negative impact of the slush fund scandal, it is predicted that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will lose seats. However, the opposition parties have not established an effective framework for cooperation that would outmaneuver the LDP’s leading coalition. The LDP defines its victory in this election as securing a simple majority of 233 seats with its coalition partner, Komeito.
 
Prime Minister Ishiba has long questioned the power of a prime minister to unilaterally dissolve the Lower House. He wrote in his blog in June about importance of learning from the wisdom of predecessors in the House, quoting the words of former Speaker of House of Representatives, Shigeru Hori, that criticized the arbitrary dissolution in 1978.
 
Nevertheless, Ishiba dissolved the House only eight days after he was elected as prime minister. He explained that he thought a new prime minister should be judged by voters as soon as possible. The opposition parties criticized Ishiba for his shortcut, which ignored the custom of pre-election policy discussions in the Diet.
 
The biggest issue in the election is political reform, stemming from the slush fund scandal that led Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, to step down. The LDP decided to exclude members who had received heavy penalties in the scandal from its slate of candidates in the coming general election. Cutting candidates from the slate necessarily will make it harder for the LDP to retain power.
 
Back in April, the LDP found that 85 of its members had failed to report kickback funds from their factions. Of these, 55 planned to run in next general election. Six of the 55 then dropped out. On October 9, the LDP removed 12 of the remaining 49 from the slate. The 12 members had received major penalties in the scandal.
 
The party included in its slate 34 members with minor penalties in the slush fund scandal. The official endorsement of a party is a great advantage in a race for a Lower House seat. A candidate with an official endorsement from his or her party can receive financial support from the party, broadcast his/her opinions through the public TV and radio program, and distribute more flyers than an independent candidate can.
 
The 34 members have, however, lost one benefit: they may not receive “double nominations.” A double nomination means that an LDP member who loses in a single-seat constituency may still run as one of several proportional representatives. LDP members not implicated in the scandal may still receive double nominations. Several members felt that the exclusion from double nominations was too heavy a sanction. To sooth those ruffled feathers, Ishiba excluded himself and other four major positions in LDP board – Secretary General and Chairs of the General Council, Policy Research Council and Election Strategy Committee – from double nominations.
 
The 12 members removed from the LDP slate and the 34 members ineligible for a double nomination are all candidates in single-seat constituencies. Three other members involved in the scandal are candidates for proportional representatives, and they declined to be included in the LDP slate. One of the three is running in a single-seat constituency as an independent candidate, and another will seek election to the House of Councillors next year.
 
Despite Ishiba’s cutting back the slate, there is a trick that may help the LDP. Even after the election, it is not unusual for a party to include victorious candidates as additional members of its slate. Ishiba did not rule out the possibility of adding independent winners to the LDP slate. If the LDP does so, it likely would include some independent winners who originally were excluded from the slate due to the scandal.
 
The opposition parties do not consider the decisions of the LDP to pare down the slate and bar double nominations as meaningful penalties for the members involved in the scandal. “Most of them would be on the slate. It cannot be understood by the people,” said the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Yoshihiko Noda to Nikkei Shimbun. The head of the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai), Nobuyuki Baba, said that the LDP members should testify before the Political Ethics Council in the Diet. The Japan Communist Party (JCP) demanded the resignations of those LDP lawmakers.
 
According to the counting of NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), LDP fielded 342 candidates (266 for single-seat constituencies and 76 for proportional representatives excluding the double nomination). Komeito has 50 (11 and 39). LDP did not field any candidate in a district where Komeito has its own.
 
The number of candidates of the opposition parties are as follows; CDP: 237 (207 and 30), Ishin: 164 (163 and 1), JCP: 236 (213 and 23), Democratic Party for the People: 42 (41 and 1), Reiwa Shinsengumi: 35 (19 and 16), Social Democratic Party: 17 (10 and 7), and Sanseito: 95 (85 and 10).
 
Most of the JCP’s candidates will compete with CDP or Ishin candidates. It is likely that the votes against LDP will be divided among some opposition parties, but the parties are not working together to defeat LDP candidates. Although Noda hoped to lead negotiations to establish a cooperative framework among the opposition parties, time has run out with the LDP strategy of an early call of a snap election.
 
LDP held 256 seats in the House of Representatives before the general election was proclaimed, and Komeito held 32. The coalition of these two parties thus controlled 288 seats – 55 seats above the simple majority of 233. If this coalition loses 56 seats or more in the election, they will lose the majority. In this event, the coalition will have to add unaffiliated, independent voters or find additional coalition partners. So far, no opposition party has shown any interest in joining the coalition with the LDP and Komeito.
 
The possibility of LDP and Komeito losing the administration is widely estimated as low because the approval rating for the LDP rose after Ishiba replaced Kishida and because the opposition parties have not formed a united front against the leading coalition. This possibility is not zero, however: LDP candidates who had been involved in the slush fund scandal will face very difficult campaigns, even if they are included in the LDP slate. No one can deny a possibility of political turmoil following the election.
 
Explaining the Election System for the House of Representatives
Dissolution of the House of Representatives is made under the name of the Emperor. Article 7 of the Constitution of Japan states that dissolution is one of the acts in matters of state by the Emperor. However, the Emperor does not have political power, and the acts in matters of state are exercised with the advice and approval of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is led by the Prime Minister. So, the provision has been interpreted as vesting Prime Minister with the power to dissolve the House of Representatives at any time.
 
When the House of Representatives is dissolved, there must be a general election of the House of Representatives within 40 days from the date of dissolution under Article 54 of the Constitution. The general election in 2024 will be held 18 days after the dissolution.
 
The House of Representatives has 465 seats. 289 seats are from single-seat constituencies in all over Japan. The remaining 176 seats are from eleven blocks with several representatives that are allocated to parties on pro rata based on the number of votes.
 
Each voter has two votes in election; one is for writing a name of a candidate in a single-seat constituency, and the other is for writing the name of a party (and not an individual candidate) for proportional representatives.
 
In each single-seat constituency the system is first-past-the-post: whoever receives the most votes wins the seat. The winning proportional representatives are selected from the slate of each party, according to the number of seats allocated to them. Each party makes a list of candidates in order of priority. If a party wins 10 seats in a block of proportional representatives, the candidates from number 1 to 10 on the list will take the seats.
 
What makes this system complicated is that one candidate can be nominated for both kinds of seats. A candidate with a double nomination can take a seat as a proportional representative, even if he/she loses the single-seat constituency.
 
Moreover, a party can nominate multiple candidates in the same position on the list of proportional representatives. It is usual that, say, ten or twenty candidates who also are candidates in single-seat constituencies are nominated in the number one position. As between the candidates in this position, the candidate with the smallest margin of defeat in the single-seat constituency takes priority. If candidate A lost by 5 percentage points to his or her opponent, and candidate B lost by 10 percent, A is superior to B when seats are allocated to proportional representatives.

Monday October 14, 2024 Asia Events

COMMON SECURITY IN THE INDO PACIFIC REGION. 10/14, 8:00pm (PST), 8:00am (EDT) HYBRID. Sponsor: Campaign for Peace, Disarmament & Common Security. Speakers: Francis Daehoon Lee of Peace MOMO is former research professor of peace studies at SungKongHoe University and visiting professor for peace studies at Ritsumeikan University and the International University of Japan; Speakers: Reiner Braun has been actively involved in the German and international peace movements since 1982; Anuradha Chenoy is Adjunct Professor, Jindal Global University and Associate Fellow of the Trans-national Institute (The Netherlands); Enkhsakhan Jargalsaikhan is chair of Blue Banner, a Mongolian NGO dedicated to promoting the goals of nuclear non-proliferation.  

THE CONSERVATIVE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST TECH. 10/24, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Information Technology & Innovation Foundation. Speakers: Jennifer Huddleston; Technology Policy Research Fellow, Cato Institute; Josh Withrow, Resident Fellow, Technology and Innovation; R Street. 

MYANMAR’S HUMANITARIAN NEEDS AND CHALLENGES IN 2024. 10/14, 3:00-4:30pm (SGT), HYBRID. Sponsor: ISEAS Myanmar Studies Programme. Speakers: Dr Su Mon Thazin Aung, Visiting Fellow with the Myanmar Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institut; Dr Surachanee Sriyai is a Visiting Fellow with the Media, Technology and Society Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 

A CONVERSATION WITH NK NEWS CEO CHAD O’CARROLL. 10/14, 5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: School of Global Policy and Strategy, US San Diego. Speakers: Chad O'Carroll, founder and CEO, NK News; Stephan Haggard, Director Emeritus, Korea-Pacific Program, School of Global Policy and Strategy, US San Diego. 

THE RISING SUN OF INNOVATION. 10/14, 7:00-8:15pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Asia Society Japan. Speaker: Dr Peter Gruss, one of the most experienced and "hands-on" doers and thinkers in the world of global science and innovation. 

Japan's New Prime Minister

Ishiba’s challenge is to unite both the LDP and Japan

by Ben Ascione, Waseda University and APP member 
First published in the EastAsiaForum, October 6, 2024

On 1 October 2024, Shigeru Ishiba was sworn in as Japan’s new prime minister. To win the top job, he overcame a crowded field with a record nine candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election. He brings extensive political experience with 38 years as a lawmaker and past roles as defence, agriculture and regional revitalisation minister.

Ishiba’s win was perhaps unexpected given his long-standing position as an outsider within the LDP. Known for his wonkish style, he often favours idealist policy solutions. Ishiba was also critical of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, earning him the ire of many of his fellow LDP lawmakers, especially among the nationalist conservatives in the Abe and Aso factions. This outspoken stance even led some Abe allies to label Ishiba a ‘traitor’.

Ishiba criticised Abe’s economic policy, Abenomics, for failing to help rural areas and small businesses, as well as his handling of various political scandals, calling for greater transparency and accountability. Ishiba also criticised Abe’s leadership style, suggesting it was excessively top-down and insufficiently inclusive of diverse public opinion.

Where Abe emphasised outcomes, Ishiba emphasises the importance of democratic processes and engaging the public in what he calls the ‘politics of understanding and empathy’ (nattoku to kyokan no seiji). Even when Abe and Ishiba agreed on policy direction, such as revising the Article 9 peace clause of the constitution or restarting nuclear power plants, Ishiba criticised Abe for being hasty and failing to build sufficient public consensus.

Despite, or perhaps because of, his position as a voice of dissent within the LDP, Ishiba successfully cultivated significant support among the more than 1 million LDP rank-and-file members. But his lack of popularity among fellow lawmakers meant that he was seemingly blocked from a pathway to the prime ministership and sidelined as a major political force.

The situation changed when a political slush fund scandal emerged in December 2023, where LDP factions were found to have underreported fundraising income to create off-the-books funds to evade spending regulations. The scandal plunged the LDP into crisis as its public support eroded. In response, former prime minister Fumio Kishida dissolved his faction as part of his efforts to recover public trust, which pressured other LDP factions — bar the Aso faction — to follow suit.

This meant that when Kishida announced his resignation, after battling for months as a ‘dead man walking’, the LDP leadership election would be contested under a new political landscape. The public were looking for a change in leadership to reform the LDP and the role that money plays in politics. And LDP lawmakers, with an eye on the upcoming upper and lower house elections that must be held by July and October 2025 respectively, would have a free hand to cast their votes rather than taking their cues from factional bosses.

The nine candidates were whittled down to two — Ishiba and Abe-protege Sanae Takaichi — who faced off in a second-round runoff vote. This time, Ishiba succeeded where he had failed before, securing enough support from lawmakers to defeat Takaichi. With the LDP still reeling from the slush fund scandal, many lawmakers perhaps felt their electoral chances would fare better with Ishiba rather than Takaichi at the helm, even if they don’t necessarily like Ishiba.

But Ishiba’s path to the prime ministership and his approach to politics present him with a number of challenges going forward.

Ishiba inherits a fractured party. Lawmakers split fairly evenly between Ishiba and Takaichi in the second-round runoff, with Ishiba winning by a slim margin of 189 votes to 173. This shows that Takaichi, who positioned herself as Abe’s successor, still commands sizeable support within the party for her brand of ‘national greatness’ conservatism. Takaichi reportedly rejected an offer from Ishiba to become chair of the LDP General Council. Takaichi and her supporters are clearly waiting in the wings for Ishiba to stumble, ready for another shot at the crown.

Ishiba also lacks a natural base within the party. This means electoral results and public support will play an outsized role in laying the foundations for him to govern. Ishiba announced a snap election a day before even being sworn into office, set to be held on 27 October, aiming to take advantage of his honeymoon period with the public. Lacking the natural charisma of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, who also heavily relied on public support, Ishiba is backing himself to frankly explain the difficulties Japan faces to the public — be it demographic decline, the need for structural economic reform or bolstering Japan’s defence posture — and garner their support for ideal rather than piecemeal solutions.

Another challenge is that some of Ishiba’s ideal solutions will require more than strong public backing. Ishiba has touted the idea of renegotiating the Status of Forces Agreement with the United States, which governs the legal status of US military bases and personnel stationed in Japan, to establish a more equal alliance and to give Japan a say over how the United States uses its nuclear weapons in Asia.

Ishiba has also proposed the establishment of an ‘Asian NATO’ between the United States and its allies in the region, presumably with a collective defence clause. These are ideas whose time has probably not yet come. If not handled delicately, such initiatives risk upsetting Washington, and maintaining good US–Japan relations is imperative for any Japanese prime minister to maintain support at home.

Ultimately, the longevity of the Ishiba government will depend on his ability to garner and leverage public support to rebuff pressure from Takaichi and members of the former Abe faction. This will determine whether Ishiba’s leadership heralds a more democratic era for Japan’s entrenched ruling party or ushers in a period of LDP factionalism, a revolving-door prime ministership and political volatility.

Monday Asia Events October 7, 2024

NEVER AGAIN IS NOT ENOUGH: REMEMBERING THE TRAGEDY OF OCTOBER 7. 10/7, 9:30-11:30am (EDT). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Heritage Foundation. Speakers Include: Rob Greenway, Director, Allison Center for National Security, Heritage Foundation; EJ Kimball, Director of Christian Engagement, Combat Antisemitism Movement; Mort Klein, National President, Zionist Organization of America. 

EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE ON TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION IN EAST ASIA AND THE ROLE OF PATENTS. 10/7, 11:00am-1:00pm (PDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Asia Society San Francisco. Speakers: Mark Cohen, Senior Tech Fellow, Asia Society Northern California; Kathi Vidal, Under Secretary of Commerce for Intellectual Property and Director, United States Patent and Trademark Office. 

U.S. - CHINA-SOUTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION. 10/7, Noon-1:45pm, HYBRID. Sponsor: Asia Foundation. Speakers: Dr. David M. Lampton, Senior Research Fellow at SAIS Foreign Policy Institute; Dr. Kuik Cheng-Chwee, Professor of International Relations and Head of the Center of Asian Studies, at the National University of Malaysia; Dr. Da Wei, Director, Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University; John Brandon, Senior Director of International Relations Programs for The Asia Foundation ; Yun Sun, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.  [By invitation...]

OCTOBER 7, ONE YEAR LATER: THE HAMAS ATTACK, THE FUTURE OF GAZA, AND CHALLENGES FOR THE UNITED STATES. 10/7, 4:30-5:30pm (EDT). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: AEI. Speakers Include: Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; David A. Deptula, Dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; Eyal Hulata, Senior International Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

LDP Chooses Ishiba for its Next Leader

The Occam's Choice Candidate

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
Special to Asia Policy Point, September 30, 2024

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected its former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba as its 28th President on September 27. Ishiba immediately started forming his administration, inviting supporters in the election to join his team. After he is elected as the 102nd Prime Minister of Japan in tomorrow’s extraordinary session of the Diet, Ishiba says he will dissolve the House of Representatives (Lower House) and call a general election on October 27.
 
The presidential election was, as expected, a close race between Ishiba, Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi and former Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi. Takaichi bested the other two with 181 votes in the first round, compared to 154 for. Ishiba and 136 for Koizumi. As the two leading vote-getters, Takaichi and Ishiba proceeded to a run-off, because no candidate among nine obtained majority votes.
 
Surprising enough for members of the LDP, Ishiba overtook Takaichi in the run-off by a narrow 21-vote margin, 215 to 194. Ishiba added 143 lawmaker votes, from forty-six in the first round to 189 in the run-off, while Takaichi received another 101, from 72 to 173. While each of 368 lawmakers had one vote, 6 were supposed to have abstained or their votes were invalid in the run-off. Ishiba’s greater increase in lawmaker votes indicates that lawmakers who supported the losers in the first round clearly preferred Ishiba. Of the 47 rank-and-file votes available, Ishiba received 26 and Takaichi 21.
 
Notwithstanding public criticism, obscure faction politics, as shown in the LDP’s slush fund scandal, it was the backstage moves of the factions that determined the result of the election, especially at the run-off stage.
 
LDP Vice-president Taro Aso, the leader of the eponymous Aso faction with 54 members, decided to support Takaichi a day before the voting and instructed his faction members to follow him. Takaichi’s surge among lawmakers’ votes in the first round, despite recent polls that had shown she had as little support in the Diet as Ishiba, was the result of the Aso faction’s support.
 
On the other side, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was concerned about Takaichi’s boost among the lawmakers. As a prime minister firmly committed to diplomacy, Kishida opposed the hawkish stance of Takaichi. For example, earlier she had promised to visit the Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister. Kishida advised the 47 members of his former faction never to vote for Takaichi. Although the Kishida faction had been dissolved, former members collectively voted against Takaichi and supported Ishiba in the run-off.
 
As part of his rivalry with Aso as a would-be kingmaker, former prime minister Yoshihide Suga supported Ishiba in the run-off and persuaded young colleagues to follow him. In the first round, Suga supported Koizumi, for whom Suga is guardian.  The support of lawmakers who voted for Koizumi in the first round (95 votes) was supposed to go to Ishiba in the run-off. Although the former Abe faction (92 members) and the Motegi faction (47 members) expected to vote for Takaichi in the run-off, they seemed unable to act collectively.
 
Ishiba started building up his administration the day after the election. He appointed as Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, the Chairman of General Council in the Kishida Administration. Ishiba expects Moriyama, as the former leader of his own small faction, to balance the different interests in the LDP.
 
Moriyama in turn persuaded Aso to join Ishiba’s team as LDP Supreme Advisor. Ishiba invited Suga to come aboard as the LDP Vice-president as a way of, thanking him for his efforts to shift lawmakers’ votes to Ishiba in the run-off. Two hopeful kingmakers, Aso and Suga, now stand together at two of the highest positions, though nominal, in the party.
 
As for other members of the administration, their experience with defense policy seemed to be the main guidepost for Ishiba. In addition to Ishiba himself, the incoming Minister for Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya, Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, and LDP Chairman of Policy Research Council Itsunori Onodera are all former defense minister.
 
On September 25, the Hudson Institute published an essay by Ishiba on security policy. Speaking in his personal capacity (rather than as Prime Minister), Ishiba proposed revisions to the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and the Status of Forces Agreement “to allow the Self-Defense Forces to be stationed in Guam to strengthen the deterrence capabilities of Japan and U.S.” The appointment of defense experts reflects Ishiba’s desire to strengthen Japan’s defense capability.
 
Unsurprisingly, Ishiba’s political enemies are not part of his administration. Ishiba offered Takaichi the position of chief of the General Council, but Takaichi declined. Ishiba also asked another hawkish presidential candidate, Takayuki Kobayashi, to serve as the LDP’s chief of public affairs, but he rejected the offer. Ishiba may well have offered them these positions as a nominal attempt at party unity but fully expecting that they would refuse, either because they felt the positions beneath them or because they wanted to avoid being co-opted by his administration.   
 
Elsewhere in his administration, Ishiba picked Seiichiro Murakami as the Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications. Murakami once called Shinzo Abe “public enemy.” Thus, Murakami’s appointment may stir anger among former allies of Abe in the party. Once the glow surrounding the new administration begins to dim, the struggles within the LDP may resume.
 
Although Ishiba in the past said that a general election of the Diet should occur after the traditional detailed discussion of his policies in the Diet, Ishiba has now shifted his stance to an earlier snap election. He made this decision on the advice of senior LDP leaders, including Moriyama, Kishida, and Aso. He has announced a general election of the House of Representatives on October 27.
 
October will be busy for the new prime minister. After his election in the Diet on Oct. 1, there will be: Ishiba’s policy speech on Oct. 4; discussion of those policies in a Diet plenary session on Oct. 7 and 8; dissolution of the House of Representatives on Oct. 9; Ishiba’s trip to the ASEAN Summit in Laos on Oct. 10 and 11; and proclaim on Oct. 15 a general election of the House of Representatives. The month ends with a snap election on the 27th. 

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BILL BROOKS OBSERVATIONS
Senior advisor at the Reischauer Center and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS since 2009, after retiring from the U.S. Department of State. For 15 years, he served as the head of the U.S. Embassy in Japan’s media analysis and translation unit.

My recollection of Ishiba is that he is one of the LDP's most seasoned defense policy wonks. But whether his policy vision for the Alliance and regional security is implementable is another matter. His proposed establishment of an Asian-style NATO arrangement has been considered and rejected as unworkable long ago due to the variety of diverse security interests in the region. ASEAN would prefer to remain unaligned, not choosing one side or the other. The US has long expressed no interest in such a security arrangement, and Japan is certainly not capable of putting a NATO-like scheme together. China would react strongly to any security arrangement that seeks to contain it or threaten it. 

Regarding a revision of the SOFA, such a proposal has been kicking around the LDP for decades and going nowhere. I don't think it will gain traction among the majority of the party. The US would continue to reject any revision, arguing that problems with the US forces in Japan can be resolved by administrative actions, such as a memorandum of understanding with Japan. 

The greater question is whether Ishiba will continue the defense policies of Abe and Kishida, including the defense buildup plan and other commitments to the Alliance that have pleased Washington. 

Monday Asia Events September 30, 2024

XINJIANG: SUPPORTING VICTIMS AND ADVANCING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF UN RECOMMENDATIONS. 9/30, 8:00am (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Location: 57th Session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland. Speakers Include: Priya Gopalan, Vice-Chair on Follow-Up and member for the Asia-Pacific region, UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention; John Fisher, Deputy Director for Global Advocacy, Human Rights Watch. 

THE STRATEGIC CULTURE OF THE UNITED WA STATE ARMY. 9/30, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson Center. Speakers: Amara Thiha, Nonresident Fellow, Stimson; Doctoral Researcher, Peace Research Institute of Oslo; Pamela Kennedy, Research Analyst, East Asia Program. 

THE POLITICS OF NON-POLITICS IN POST-1960S JAPAN. 9/30, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsors: Weatherhead Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University. Speaker: Nick Kapur, Associate Professor of History, Rutgers University. 

ON DAY ONE": A U.S. ECONOMIC CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR A TAIWAN CRISIS. 9/30, 12:30-1:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow, Stanford University, Non-resident Research Fellow, China Maritime Studies Institute, US Naval War College; Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS; Hugo Bromley, Research Associate, Centre for Geopolitics, Cambridge. 

PRICE STABILITY IN AN AGE OF EMERGENCIES: REVISITING THE CASE FOR BUFFER STOCKS. 9/30, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Peterson Institute (PIIE). Speakers: Maurice Obstfeld, C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, PIIE; Isabella M. Weber, Associate Professor, Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst. 

OBJECTIONS OF DISRUPTION: OPPRESSION IN THAILAND. 9/30, 3:00-5:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Sigur Center, George Washington University. Speaker: Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor, Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies, chief editor, online journal, Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia. 

BOOK TALK: WEAPONS IN SPACE: TECHNOLOGY, POLITICS, AND THE RISE AND FALL OF THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE. 9/30, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Aaron Bateman, Assistant Professor, History, International Affairs, George Washington University. 
PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/47BX3Nu

BOOK TALK: WEAPONS IN SPACE: TECHNOLOGY, POLITICS, AND THE RISE AND FALL OF THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE. 9/30, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Aaron Bateman, Assistant Professor, History, International Affairs, George Washington University. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/47BX3Nu

CDP Elects A New Leader

And its Yoshihiko Noda

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
Special to Asia Policy Point, September 23, 2024

Japan’s largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), elected former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda as its president in an extraordinary national convention on September 23. Noda’s goal is to take back the administration of the government from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Noda is entering a competition against the leading coalition in the election of House of Representatives, which is expected to be held soon after the LDP decides new president later this week.
 
The CDP Electoral Process
Four groups are eligible to vote for the CDP leader: 1) CDP lawmakers, 2) registered candidates for the next election of the Diet (for example, a former lawmaker who lost in last election but now plans to run in next election), 3) local assembly members registered to CDP, and 4) rank-and-file party members and supporters who have paid a membership fee.
 
CDP has 136 lawmakers in both Chambers of the Diet, each of whom has two points. Total points for the lawmakers are 272. Each of the 98 registered candidates for Diet election has one point, which amounts to 98 points. A total of 370 points is available.
 
Local assembly members of the CDP and rank-and-file members/supporters also have a total of 370 points. The CDP has about 1,200 local assembly members and about a 100,000 rank-and-file members and registered supporters in all over Japan. In the first round, each group has 185 points, totaling another 370. The points are allocated to the candidates pro rata, depending on the percentage of votes received.
 
In the second round, if no one secures a majority in the first round, lawmakers (with two points for each), registered candidates (one point for each) and delegates from CDP’s prefectural branches, which amount to 47 (one point for each), would vote.
 
The victorious candidate must receive at least 371 votes of the 740 available in round one. In the second round, the winner must obtain at least 209 of the 417 points.
 
The Election
Four candidates entered the race. Of the four, Noda received the largest number of votes from CDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members of the party. He collected 267 points in total: 128 points from lawmakers and registered candidates, and 139 points from local assembly members and rank-and-file members/supporters. The former head of CDP, Yukio Edano, received a total of 206 points with 83 and 123, respectively. Noda thus received stronger support among CDP lawmakers than did Edano, but both were well below the majority threshold of 371 votes. The other two candidates, the current head of the CDP, Kenta Izumi, and Harumi Yoshida were left behind by a wide margin.
 
Since no candidate secured the necessary 371-vote majority in the first round, Noda and Edano competed in a second-round runoff election. Noda secured 232 points, defeating Edano with 180 points. It was clear from the runoff that registered candidates preferred Noda to Edano.
 
Noda’s Policies
Noda’s victory reflects the party members’ appreciation of Noda’s political skill as a veteran lawmaker and his experience as prime minister. Of course, Noda is also known as the prime minister who, in calling a snap election in 2012, handed the administration back to Shinzo Abe and the LDP for many years. Still, neither Edano nor Izumi has a brilliant record as the head of the CDP.
 
In the Diet discussion about the LDP’s slush fund scandal, Noda argued forcefully against Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and demanded fundamental reforms of the political activity funds. Yet Noda also delivered an impressive eulogy in the Diet in October 2022, regretting Abe’s early death before the CD took back the administration from the LDP. “I do not want to accept this end with your win,” said Noda.
 
It is likely that CDP members have accepted such LDP-friendly activities of Noda because he is one of the leaders of the party. He emphasizes his stance to reach out to moderate conservatives. Some in the CDP recognized his stance as workable as a strategy for next general election.
 
Noda has said that regime change would be the greatest reform of the LDP’s activities. He has criticized lawmakers in the LDP who have inherited political assets without the imposition of any tax. Noda is challenging LDP politics deeply rooted in inheritance of seats in the Diet from father to son.
 
The CDP platform is unequivocally opposed to nuclear power plants, but Noda’s commitment to the goal is less clear. “It is how we promote realistic policies with embracing our ideal,” Noda said about the issue of nuclear power plants.
 
Noda has not supported immediate change to security legislation that was introduced by Abe administration, but that has been criticized as unconstitutional. While Edano, Izumi and Yoshida would revise the status of forces agreement with the United States, Noda has only said that he would talk with U.S. on the issue, respecting opinions of the people in Okinawa.
 
These political stances may cause friction with the CDP’s left flank. It is possible for Noda to seek cooperation with other opposition parties, especially conservative ones, but the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has been reluctant to do so. The CDP and Ishin compete with each other in a large number of Lower House electoral districts. The Democratic Party for the People is watching Noda’s handling of the CDP.
 
Noda’s concept for cooperation marks the sharpest difference from Edano. Edano ran for the CDP leadership premised on an administration run solely by the CDP. But Noda thinks that exclusive CDP administration is unrealistic. He instead hopes to maximize the seats of all opposition parties to push the LDP into a minority. 
 
However, a coalition government may not be especially realistic either. The conservative Noda has not sought to cooperate with the Japan Communist Party (JCP). The JCP has already announced that it would field candidates in some electoral districts where the CDP has its own candidates. Whether Noda can unite the CDP and the opposition parties remains to be seen.
 
Noda’s People
On September 24, Noda, picked Jun-ya Ogawa for the CDP’s Secretary General. He also selected Kazuhiko Shigetoku for Chairman of the Policy Research Council and Hirofumi Ryu for Chairman of the Diet Affairs Committee. Hiroshi Ogushi stays as the Chairman of Election Strategy Committee. Noda appointed Ogushi, Akira Nagatsuma, and Kiyomi Tsujimoto as Deputy Heads of the party. By appointing members younger than himself as board members, Noda hopes to give a fresh face to the party for voters in the coming House of Representatives’ general election.
 
Nagatsuma, 64, is known as a specialist of welfare issues, dubbed as “Mr. Pension System,”and Tsujimoto, 64, positions herself on the left side of the party, who is known as a liberal lawmaker starting her political career as a member of the Social Democratic Party.
 
Ogawa, Shigetoku, and Ryu supported Noda in the leader’s election of the CDP. While Noda had a choice to appoint other candidates to the board to demonstrate unification of the party, he rather chose to exclude his contenders from his team. The leadership with like-minded lawmakers may make policy promotion easier, but it can leave some instability in the party for internal struggle over basic policies.
 
Ogawa, 53, is known as a liberal lawmaker who frequently stood for questioning in the committees of the Diet. He formerly worked for Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications. In 2021, he ran in the leader’s election losing to Kenta Izumi. Ogawa worked for Izumi as the Chairman of Policy Research Council. Although Ogawa has built a framework of electoral cooperation with some other opposition parties, including Japan’s Communist Party, in Kagawa 1 district, JCP announced that it would field its own candidate in the district, indicating termination of its cooperation.
 
Shigetoku, 54, is a member of House of Representatives, and the head of a CDP policy group called the Chokkan-no Kai (Group of Remonstration). The group has between 10 to 12 members, many who demanded that Noda run in the leadership election. He was a bureaucrat in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications before becoming a member of the Diet, and formerly affiliated to Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai).
 
Hirofumi Ryu, 59, is a specialist in Diet affairs. He had been a TV Asahi political journalist. He joined the Party of Hope, led by the Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike, in 2017. He joined CDP in 2021.
 
Hiroshi Ogushi, 59, has been the chair of election strategy under the leadership of Izumi from 2021. Because there might soon be a snap election, Noda decided not to change the party’s election chief.

Monday Asia Events September 16, 2024

A NEW COLD WAR? CONGRESSIONAL RHETORIC AND REGIONAL REACTIONS TO THE U.S.-CHINA RIVALRY. 9/16, 9:00am-12:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers Include: Xinru Ma, Research Scholar, Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab; Gidong Kim, Post-doctoral Fellow, Korea Program, Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab. 

A CONVERSATION ON RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES WITH NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LAUREATE OLEKSANDRA MATVIICHUK. 9/16, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Matthew Boyse, Senior Fellow, Center on Europe and Eurasia, Director, Center for Civil Liberties, Kyiv; Oleksandra Matviichuk, Director, Center for Civil Liberties, Kyiv. 

MAPPING CHINA'S STRATEGIC SPACE. 9/16, 2:00-3:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). Speakers: Mr. Mark Lambert, Deputy Assistant Secretary for China and Taiwan, U.S Department of State; Dr. Jacqueline Deal, Long Term Strategy Group; Dr. Aaron Friedberg, Princeton University. Dr. April Herlevi, Center for Naval Analyses; Ms. Nadège Rolland, NBR; Ms. Alison Szalwinski, NBR.

THE UNITED STATES AND INDIA: MILESTONES REACHED AND THE PATHWAY AHEAD. 9/16, 3:30-4:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Aparna Pande, Research Fellow, India and South Asia, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources; Richard R. Verma, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources. 

WOMEN AND POLITICS IN INDIA: A CONVERSATION WITH SMRITI IRANI. 9/16, 5:00-7:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Observer Research Foundation America. Speaker: Smriti Irani, former Indian Minister of Minority Affairs, Minister of Women and Child Development, Minister of Textiles, Miniter of Information of Broadcasting, Minister of Human Resource Development.

Who Does Washington Want To Be Japan's Prime Minister

Someone who speaks English? But probably doesn't understand it.

By Daniel Sneider,  Lecturer, International Policy at Stanford University and APP member

First published in Toyo Keizai, September 12, 2024

As Liberal Democratic Party members struggle to pick the next Prime Minister of Japan, there is a vote that will not be counted but matters a lot – who does Washington want to be Japan’s next leader?

The most obvious answer to that question is that Washington doesn’t care. At the senior levels of government and policymakers, “they could care less,” a former senior government official who remains deeply engaged with Japan told Toyo Keizai. “At the expert level, there are preferences. But no one in Washington is talking about it all.”

One reason for this lack of interest is also obvious – Americans are deeply engaged with their own, highly contested election. But the unique nature of the Japanese party election makes it confusing, not least because of the very large field of candidates. And ultimately, Americans assume, perhaps wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to change Japan’s foreign and domestic policy.

Still, for American policymakers and experts, it matters who emerges as Japan’s next leader. What is most important for the United States is “who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Japanese public, that delivers an economic agenda that is sustainable, that allows Japan to keep up its defense expenditures and encourages the Japanese economy to be a key hub in global supply chains,” says Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the premier Japan experts in Washington.

“Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe [Shinzo] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance,” says Amb Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.

Along with that, Americans are looking for “somebody who can work with the ROK (South Korea), and somebody who has strong domestic support, who can bring the LDP back together.”

That said, Donovan and others I spoke to offer a “huge caveat” – what might happen if leadership changes in the U.S.

If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she “will be looking for the strongest possible Japanese Prime Minister,” says the former senior official, who wished to remain anonymous. “Whereas Trump will be looking for which Prime Minister he can manipulate.”

Abe was able to “both impress the U.S. President and also stand up for Japan. It is really important that whoever meets with Trump is able to exude self-confidence as a global leader.”

Within that broad framework, Japan offers its own views on who might best fit those requirements.

How Washington sees the candidates

Leaving aside the question of the ability to project a reformist image that can rally voters back to the scandal-tarnished conservative ruling party, American policymakers tend to favor the most experienced figures in the LDP, particularly those who have long interacted with Washington.

“Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi [Yoshimasa],” said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read “Observing Japan” newsletter.

“Obviously, he has lots of friends here. He worked on the Hill (Congress). He is the continuity candidate. If you like what the Kishida government has been doing, then Hayashi is your guy.”

Washington knows the other candidates well: former Foreign Minister and current LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu, the current Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko, and former Foreign and Defense Minister Kono Taro. The former senior government official offered this frank, off-the-record assessment of the three, based in part on personal contact.

Motegi’s experience with Washington comes mainly in the trade area, as the negotiator of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and dealing with the Trump administration.

“He is smart, effective, a little bit aggressive – not a typical Japanese, but Americans can deal with that,” says the former official. “He is abrasive, but that doesn’t matter in international affairs.”

As for Kamikawa, “she is the opposite. It's so nice, vanilla-flavored. Washington would think she is chosen because of her gender and being fluent in English.”

Kono is also a potential Prime Minister with long experience in Washington, someone fluent in English, “spends a lot of time with Americans and knows the U.S. reasonably well,” the former official says.

But there are concerns about Kono, particularly in the Pentagon but also the State Department, mainly arising out of his time as Defense Minister and the abrupt cancellation of the Aegis Onshore missile defense program, which shocked Washington. “Kono thinks Americans like him, but that is not true.”

As things stand now, however, none of the ‘experienced’ candidates seem likely to make the final two. That leaves a set of candidates who are not at the top of American lists—former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru, former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, Koizumi Shinjiro, and current Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae.

None of these possible leaders is considered a serious problem for alliance relations—except for rightwing stalwart Takaichi, who has positioned herself as the ideological heir to Abe’s more nationalist agenda.

“Takaichi would make everyone nervous,” says Harris. Her provocative stance on wartime history issues, including plans to make official visits to the Yasukuni shrine to Japan’s war dead, “would upset the apple cart on trilateral ties with the Koreans.” Those worries extend to Koizumi and Kobayashi, who might also visit Yasukuni and sour relations with Korea.

Takaichi appeals to more hawkish elements in Washington, particularly among Trump backers, who see her as more willing to militarily confront China. “She is going to want the same things that some people in Washington want, and they will find a way to work with her,” says Harris.

That view does not extend to other experienced Japan hands in Washington. “It is hard to be too hawkish in Washington these days, but she might be too hawkish for the Washington crowd, at least among Japan hands,” predicted the former senior official.

Ishiba is perhaps the most intriguing and potentially difficult leader for Japan among Americans. Although he garners considerable attention in Japan, he is not that well known in the U.S. He has some support in the Pentagon from his experience as Defense Minister and his interest in weapons development. But he has a reputation as a Japanese Gaullist, someone willing to forge a more independent path for Japan.

“Ishiba is sincere,” comments Harris. “He says what he thinks, and he comes from this tradition that is not going to do what the U.S. wants if it is not in Japan’s interests.”

Harris compares him to Kono, noting that both men have been critical of the protectionist decision to bar Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel. Both men represent “a Japan that can say no, maybe politely, but still say no.”

Ishiba reflects more openly a widely held worry in Japan about U.S. reliability, particularly under a second Trump administration. “He and Trump together talking about burden sharing would be an interesting conversation,” says the former senior official. “He will give as good as he gets.”

The other candidate coming out of the former Abe faction, Kobayashi, is garnering more interest in Washington where some think he could emerge as the second-place candidate. Compared to Takaichi, he is viewed more favorably.

Kobayashi is “very bright, a good communicator, with U.S. experience,” says the former official.

“He is young, interesting, probably someone the U.S. could work with, but who is really going to make decisions if he is Prime Minister.” His interest in economic security is much appreciated by Washington policymakers.

The Koizumi question

That brings us to the last viable option and the current front-runner in opinion polls – Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of the former Prime Minister. He is clearly popular and offers the best chance to restore the damaged image of the LDP.

He has had little to say on foreign policy, focusing almost entirely on internal issues of political reform and encouraging entrepreneurial-led growth.

Koizumi is well-known in American policy circles. His graduate education at Columbia University was followed by an invaluable internship at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, working closely with veteran Japan alliance manager Michael Green. But there are questions about both his lack of experience and his policy views.

“He doesn’t get deep on policy very often,” the former official told Toyo Keizai. “People here would think they have chosen someone attractive to voters, but let’s see if he can handle the job.”

Nonetheless, in a second-round contest between Koizumi and either Ishiba or Takaichi, the Washington experts would tend to favor the young politician.

They assume he would have the backing of the LDP’s heavyweight kingmakers like Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide and would represent a unified party.

For American Japan hands, the bottom line is to have a leader that can continue to project a more assertive role in global affairs.

“If you have a leader that is not strong, that could mean Japan is not going to be as proactive as it has been in the past,” says Brookings’ Solis, author of an important new book on Japan’s leadership role.

Japan has become a key voice in opposition to the deepening of economic nationalism that is “flourishing in the U.S.” and the growth of xenophobic populism. The possibility of a return to isolationism under Trump underlines the importance of Japanese leadership, she says.

None of the possible candidates for LDP leadership would be as disruptive as the experience with the brief period of Democratic Party of Japan rule.

“It is more a question of what kind of Prime Minister is more adept at taking the reins of government in Japan, of providing good economic management assuring that the LDP can get through its agenda.

“If you see a weakening of that control power that we got used to, that brought a more decisive Japan, that would be a challenge.”

The Okinawa Problem

The Governor of Okinawa Denny Tamaki will be in the U.S. the week of September 8th. He will be speaking publicly at in Washington, DC at the Hudson Institute on the 9th and George Washington University's Sigur Center on the 11th and in New York City at Columbia University on the 12th.

Okinawans must not be overlooked in new US–Japan counter-crime forum 

By Alexis Dudden, Professor of History at the University of Connecticut, Visiting Professor of Japanese Studies at the National University of Singapore, and APP Member.

First Published in the East Asian Forum, 6 September 2024.

On 22 July 2024, US Forces Japan Commander Lieutenant General Ricky Rupp announced the creation of a new joint US–Japan forum to address the endemic issue of crimes committed off base by US military personnel stationed in Okinawa — particularly sex crimes.

How Rupp’s forum will differ from the Cooperative Working Team established in October 2000 to address similar concerns is not clear. The Cooperative Working Team met 27 times until petering out in April 2017. It brought together representatives from the US military and government, Japanese foreign and defence ministries, the Okinawan prefectural government and police, as well as members of the prefecture’s chambers of commerce and bar association. Since its dissolution, active-duty US servicemen in Okinawa have committed several well-documented rapes, abductions and assaults — including against children.

The task force must acknowledge Okinawan elected officials’ right to immediate and accurate information about crimes US soldiers commit. This fundamental step does not require changing existing protocols. Instead, it requires that the US government, US military and the Japanese central government adhere to procedures established in the 1997 US–Japan Joint Committee Agreement. This document augmented Okinawans’ rights with regard to Article XVII of the Status of Forces Agreement between the United States and Japan, which concerns jurisdiction over crimes committed on Japanese territory.

Notably indiscernible on the Japanese Foreign Ministry website, the Okinawan Prefectural Government wants more publicity for the Agreement’s ‘Notification Channel Details for Okinawa-related Issues’. According to protocol, in the aftermath of a crime committed by a US service member or civilian attached to the US military, the commander responsible must notify the duty officer at command headquarters and the Naha Defence Facilities Administration Bureau.

The US side then moves up through military and diplomatic chains of command to the US Embassy in Tokyo, while the Japanese side moves from the Naha-based agency — Okinawa’s capital city — and simultaneously notifies the Okinawan prefectural government, Defence Administration Agency and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Okinawa Office, who then convey information to the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo.

This did not happen during the first half of 2024, leading Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki to emphasise during his press conference on 7 August at Tokyo’s Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan that he cannot be sure how many crimes he and previous Okinawan prefectural officials have never even learned about.

Tamaki accused the Japanese central government of ignoring his right to information about these crimes as Okinawa’s highest elected official. Referencing the 24 December 2023 abduction and rape of an Okinawan minor as well as the 26 May 2024 sexual assault of an Okinawan woman, Tamaki gave a full explanation of the 1997 Notification Channel Details and the Japanese government’s wilful failure to abide by them.

The repetitious nature of the crimes against Okinawan women and girls, and the US and Japanese government’s botched response to them — specifically the failure to notify the Okinawan prefectural government about crimes against their citizens — highlights the need for Commander Rupp’s forum to do something different from the prior Working Team. Reforms are urgent, with a third instance of sexual assault reported on 6 September 2024.

Speculation continues concerning Tokyo’s rationale for withholding information from the Governor. The central government may have feared that Okinawans would protest against the dominant presence of the US military, as they did in 1995 following three US servicemen’s abduction and gang rape of an elementary schoolgirl.

Such protests could have adversely affected the Okinawa elections held on 16 June 2024. Tokyo’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party wanted victory for the Governor’s opponents in order to resume construction on the unpopular new US base at Henoko, that Tamaki and his supporters blocked. Tamaki’s opponents won the election, and Tokyo ordered construction of the base to recommence despite ongoing local protests.

During the press conference Tamaki also underscored the challenge of overcoming the central government’s perennial disdain for Okinawans’ place in structural matters involving the US–Japan Alliance, despite the centrality of the territory and its people to this calculus. Taking umbrage with Tokyo’s use of ‘privacy’ as justification for not sharing information, Tamaki reiterated his 10 July 2024 Letter of Protest to Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and requested ‘that all crimes, incidents, and accidents involving US military service members and related personnel be reported, without fail, to the prefectural government’.

In September, Governor Tamaki will visit Washington to drive home his concerns to members of the US Congress and related bureaucracies. The governor will explain the disproportionate burden he and his constituents bear vis a vis US bases in Japan under the United States’ broader ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’. Noticeably, this policy emphasises a ‘rules-based order’. For these words to have any meaning at all, the Japanese government and the United States government and military must include Okinawans as equals.