Scoping out the U.S. elections

U.S. elections do influence foreign policy and foreign policy does influence elections. The above video is an interesting discussion on this issue by Dr. James Lindsay, senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at the Council of Foreign Relations hosted by the State Department's Foreign Press Center (FPC) on December 16, 2011.

The FPC is an excellent resource for following the U.S. elections. They have published a Schedule of the U.S. primaries, a Glossary of U.S. election terms, and a List of Frequently Asked Questions about U.S. Elections. You can even sign up for updates to their election publications and programs.

There are a many private websites that follow the elections as well. These include (this is just a sampling, not an endorsement) 2012 Election Central; Google's Elections Hub; ABC News OTUS; 2012 Presidential Candidates; USA Today; and CNN. [We welcome your suggestions. Please post them in the comments section.] 

World Bank & IMF Meetings

Washington hosted the annual IMF/World Bank spring meetings April 24 to 25. This year's protest were quite subdued and less colorful than in past years. Following the meetings and international development  issue have never been easier. There was a blog and a number of significant reports:

For the researcher, the most significant release of the meeting was the announcement that the World Bank Group will now offer free access to more than 2,000 financial, business, health, economic and human development statistics. An initial 330 indicators are available in French, Spanish and Arabic. The new website is http://data.worldbank.org.

Meeting Site: http://www.imf.org/external/spring/2010/index.htm
World Bank Meetings Blog: http://blogs.worldbank.org/meetings
Global Monitoring Report 2010: The MDGs after the Crisis, http://go.worldbank.org/8NMBGII280
World Economic Outlook, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm
Global Financial Stability Report, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2010/01/index.htm
East Asia & Pacific on the Rise Blog, http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific

Organizations relevant to the study of international finance and development in Washington,

Peterson Institute for International Economics, http://www.iie.com
Institute of International Finance, http://www.iif.com
Center for Global Development, http://www.cgdev.org
Society for International Development, http://www.sidint.org

Global Trade Watch, http://www.citizen.org/Page.aspx?pid=1328 

Catching Whales

The last of Japan's five Antarctic research whaling ships returned home this week. The whaling fleet had their lowest catch in years, which they blamed on harassment by the environmental group Sea Shepherd. The fleet's haul of 507 whales was down sharply from last year's of 680 and below the this year's target of 850.

The research results of this whaling expedition can be already found in the the Survey Results of the Fifth Voyage (2009/10) (Japanese Only), part of the "Second Phase of the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic (JARPAII)" conducted by the Institute of Cetacean Research for the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). The press release of the report on the Ministry's website is HERE (Japanese Only).

The survey reports that their lethal scientific research had to be curtailed because of the Sea Shepherd. The whaling operation lost over a month from the environmentalist's interference. However, through their visual surveys, the Japanese whalers were able to determine that all the whale populations in the Antarctic are recovering.

Last month, whale researchers from the Australian-led Southern Ocean Research Partnership, returned from their first expedition to the Antarctic. Their purpose was to show that non-lethal methods of research were just as effective as Japan's program, which kills up to 1,000 of the mammals a year.

The scientists’ research focused on whale numbers, what they eat, how they move between food patches and how they travel to and from their breeding grounds in the central Pacific.

“All of those questions can be and are being answered using nonlethal techniques,” said expedition leader Nick Gales.

Peter Garrett, Australia’s environment minister, said in a statement that the research showed “effective and achievable ways to collect a whole range of important data without the need to kill these mammals.” The Minister was there at the March launch of the Antarctic expedition.

In February, the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said "It's time that Australia got serious when it comes to the slaughter of whales, particularly the slaughter of whales in the Australian Whale Sanctuary. What we will do in Government is to take Japan and other countries as necessary to court in the International Court of Justice to bring a stop to this practice of whale slaughter."

Also this week, scientists say they have found clear proof that meat from whales captured under Japan's whaling programme is being sold in US and Korean eateries. The researchers say they used genetic fingerprinting to identify meat taken from a Los Angeles restaurant as coming from a sei whale sold in Japan.

Writing in the Royal Society journal, Biology Letters, the researchers involved say that trading in this meat is banned between countries that have signed the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.

In Washington, this week, members of the International Whaling Commission are attempting to negotiate an agreement to limit and eventually end whaling. The proposal would include stricter monitoring of whaling operations, such as placing of tracking devices and international monitors on all whaling ships and participation in a whale DNA registry to track global trade in whale products. This agreement is to be presented at the annual meeting in Morocco, June 21-25.

Later: "U.S. Leads New Bid to Phase Out Whale Hunting" The New York Times, April 15, 2010. Excellent review of current negotiations to curtain whaling complete with sources and a multimedia presentation,

Nuclear prosture reviewed

Above is the briefing on April 6 by Secretary of Defense Bill Gates introducing the Nuclear Posture Review. Additional briefings and relevant documents can be found on a Defense Department website devoted to the NPR.

Prior to the release of the Review, President Barak Obama gave an exclusive interview on his thinking toward the use of nuclear weapons to The New York Times. Video clips and a transcript are available.

The Defense Department study says that “the fundamental role” of nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear attacks on the United States, allies or partners, a narrower presumption than the past. It reject, however, the formulation sought by arms control advocates that the “sole role” of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack.

The NPR eliminates much of the ambiguity that has deliberately existed in American nuclear policy. For the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons or launched a crippling cyberattack.

There are five declared nuclear states — the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China. Three states with nuclear weapons have refused to sign — India, Pakistan and Israel — and North Korea renounced the treaty in 2003. Iran remains a signatory, but the UN Security Council has repeatedly found it in violation of its obligations, because it has hidden nuclear plants and refused to answer questions about evidence it was working on a warhead.

The shift of the nuclear deterrent toward combating proliferation and the sale or transfer of nuclear material to terrorists or nonnuclear states is to be reflected on the in focus of this week's Nuclear Security Summit hosted by the President. A major declaration outlining international cooperation against the trafficking of nuclear weapons or materials is expected.  

The release of the Nuclear Posture Review opens an intensive nine days of nuclear diplomacy geared toward reducing weapons. Mr. Obama flew to Prague to sign a new arms-control agreement, START, with Russia on April 8th and then from April 12-13, he hosts 47 world leaders in Washington for the Nuclear Security Summit.

In May, the 2010 Review of the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty will be held at the UN in New York City. See this Congressional Research Service report for a run down Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements.

For further research:


Arms Control Association (ACA)
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Nuclear Policy Program
Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation
Federation of American Scientists - A World Free of Nuclear Weapons
Harvard University - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs: Managing the Atom
Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)
Nuclear Threat Initiative
Ploughshares Fund
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Stanford University - CISAC, Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Terrorism
Union of Concerned Scientists - Nuclear Weapons and Global Security

United Nations Office of Disarmament Affairs
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Nuclear Suppliers Group
Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO
Wassenaar Arrangement

Global Security Newswire
Arms Control Wonk
Strategic Security Blog

Know Your Summit

The Nuclear Security Summit will be held in Washington, DC on April 12-13. Here is our first installment of research resources for you.

US Government Web Resources

Department of State, Nuclear Security Summit
Department of State, Bureau of Verification, Compliance and Implementation (VCI)
Department of State, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation (ISN)
Department of Defense, NDU, The Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Dept. of Defense, Office of the Deputy Assistant to the Sec. for Nuclear Matters (ODATSD(NM))
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Counterproliferation Center (NCPC)
Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Department of Energy, Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention (IPP)

What to be afraid of

Dr. Mathew J. Burrows, National Intelligence Council (NIC) Counselor and Director of the Analysis and Production Staff, spoke at the Washington Foreign Press Center on March 24, 2010, about the 2010 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA). Click here to read a copy of his remarks.

He identified cybersecurity as the top threat to the US: "In the dynamic of cyberspace, the technology balance favors malicious actors, and is likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The growing role of international companies in supplying software and hardware for sensitive U.S. Government and private networks increases the potential for subversion. The recent intrusions reported by Google are another wake-up call to those who have not taken this problem seriously."

China's efforts to protect its growing economy and power were mentioned next as a potentially destabilizing world influence. Other major concerns to the NIC were violent extremism, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, WMD proliferation, and Mexican drug cartels.

OECD Economic Studies on Asia

Economic Survey of China, OECD, 2/2/10, 234pgs.

"With the help of massive government stimulus action, China is now leading the world economy out of recession. Already the world’s second largest economy, China could well overtake the United States to become the leading producer of manufactured goods in the next five to seven years, it says. It will be important to ensure that government saving, now falling in the wake of the crisis, does not revert to its previous, excessively high levels. Public spending should be stepped up to support much needed social reforms in areas such as education, welfare assistance, pensions and health."

Australia: Towards a Seamless National Economy, OECD, 2/15/10, 150pgs.

“Lifting regulatory constraints and removing bottlenecks in some infrastructure sectors would enable Australia to take full advantage of the rapid rebound of some Asian economies, notably China.” “Australia needs to boost productivity to return to long-term sustained growth. An efficient regulatory system is a main step to achieve that goal."

Supporting Japan’s Policy Objectives: OECD’s Contribution OECD, 2/16/10, 23pgs.

"Reforms in nine key areas - a strategy for domestic demand-led growth, the labour market, environment and climate change, education, taxes, health and long-term care, pension reform, regional policy and decentralization and public governance, could bring about a lasting improvement in Japan’s economic prospects."

Science diplomacy becomes important

Scientists and engineers are often overlooked or underestimated as diplomats. Their work is naturally international, cooperative, and solution-oriented. From nuclear weapons to water purification the tools of contemporary foreign policy are creations of science and technology. More interesting, the emergence of global science has created new professional and information networks focused on transnational issues and goals.

Enhancing and utilizing this capability of S&T has been noticed by the Clinton, Bush, and Obama Administrations. In the fall of 2000, the first Science and Technology Adviser to the US Secretary of State was appointed. This followed the recommendations of a 1999 National Academies report that concluded that many goals of US foreign policy encompass science, technology, and health considerations.

On February 4-5, the University of Southern California's Center on Public Diplomacy held a conference on Science Diplomacy and the Prevention of Conflict. It explored the merits and challenges of science diplomacy, not solely as conducted by the United States, but by nations across the world. Some of the top scholars and practitioners were participants. The proceedings promise to be interesting. There was a report from Syracuse University about its computer science exchanges with North Korea. This program was discussed in an April 2009 Korea Economic Institute paper, Academic Science Engagement with North Korea.

This coming week, on February 9, the Partnership for a Secure America, U.S. Civilian Research & Development Foundation, and American Association for the Advancement of Science will host a reception for the release of a Bipartisan Statement supporting the elevation of Science Diplomacy’s role in U.S. foreign policy. The statement, signed by over two dozen prominent political and scientific leaders, urges the U.S. to utilize its scientific and technological strength to deepen international partnerships and tackle global challenges.

For further research see:

White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

Center for Science, Technology, and Economic Development (CSTED)

Center for International Science and Technology Policy (CISTP)

AAAS Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy (CSTS)

AAAS Center for Science Diplomacy (CSD)

USIP Center for Science, Technology and Peacebuilding

Since its founding in 1991, Asia Policy Point has worked with the International Office of the Air Force Office of Scientific Research to widen the defense science community's awareness of Asian politics and innovation policy. Many of APP's activities focus on the nexus between S&T and security in Asia. APP Board Member Dr. Norman Neureiter is a leader in this field.

Asia no longer blinded by US science

American dominance of science and technology has slipped dramatically, according to The National Science Foundation.

The foundation has released its biennial account of the state of S&T in the United States, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010. The 566-page report is a synthesis of thousands of different statistics on the conduct of science and engineering in the US.

"The data begin to tell a worrisome story," said Kei Koizumi, assistant director for federal research and development R&D in the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy. Calling the report 2010 a "State of the Union on science, technology, engineering and mathematics," he said, "US dominance has eroded significantly."

Over the past decade, R&D intensity--how much of a country's economic activity or gross domestic product is expended on R&D--has grown considerably in Asia, while remaining steady in the US. Annual growth of R&D expenditures in the US averaged five to six percent while in Asia, it has skyrocketed. In some Asian countries, R&D growth rate is two, three, even four, times that of the US.

In terms of R&D expenditures as a share of economic output, while Japan has surpassed the US for quite some time, South Korea is now in the lead.

A digest of the report is here.

Supporting this report's findings was a January 25th Financial Times article, China scientists lead world in research growth. It reports on an October 2009 study by Thomson Reuters on the growth in Chinese scientific research: "‘China has experienced the strongest growth in scientific research over the past three decades of any country, according to figures compiled for the Financial Times, and the pace shows no sign of slowing…. China far outperformed every other nation, with a 64-fold increase in peer-reviewed scientific papers since 1981, with particular strength in chemistry and materials science.”

Jonathan Adams, the project's manager, discusses Chinese scientific research with the BBC here.

US-Japan alliance: The rethink starts here

Anyone who thought the Futenma question was about to be answered by Tokyo and Washington didn't factor in Nago.

Residents of the Okinawan city elected an anti-base mayor on Sunday, Susumu Inamine. The Democratic Party of Japan-backed challenger had campaigned against any expansion of US military presence in the area, specifically Henoko Bay.

Nago is where Washington and Tokyo agreed in 2006 to move the Futenma US Marine airfield - one of the Corps' largest facilities in the Pacific - to a less crowded part of the southern Japanese island. The deal was part of a broader realignment of US troops in Asia.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama called the victory a "manifestation of the popular will." Noting that a government committee was "energetically" studying the relocation issue, he said: "We have said the state will responsibly reach a conclusion on this issue by the end of May by conducting a zero-base review. We will implement it without fail."

The Obama Administration has been adamant that the original agreement remains in place. Although officials in Washington have begun to counsel patience and understanding, they all remain committed to the transfer of Futenma operations to Henoko. At a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada in Hawaii on January 12th, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "Our two governments drew up the realignment roadmap with these dual goals in mind, and we look to our Japanese allies and friends to follow through on their commitments, including on Futenma."

Okada avoided direct comment, but said: "We must make the Japan-US alliance sustainable for the next 30 or 50 years, and further deepen this alliance. And we would like to make efforts to that end mutually."

"Sustainable" is a word that is now popping up in all discussions about the alliance, on both sides of the Pacific. On Thursday, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell for East Asian and Pacific Affairs testified to Congress that, "our alliance with Japan is a cornerstone of our strategic engagement in Asia. The May 2006 agreement on defense transformation and realignment will enhance deterrence while creating a more sustainable military presence in the region."

Although this interpretation of sustainable might not be the same as understood by Okada - it implies that Japan should stick to its Henoko commitment - it is significant that the phrase is being used.

January 19th was the 50th anniversary of the signing Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan. A joint statement was issued highlighting that the US-Japan alliance can "adapt to the evolving environment of the 21st century, learning from the challenges the alliance has faced in the past. For this purpose, the ministers will intensify the dialogue which is underway to further promote and deepen security cooperation in wide-ranging areas."

The White House issued a brief statement of encouragement for this "enduring partnership." At a press briefing, Campbell commended the "anniversary of the US-Japan security alliance, security partnership" and said "It’s no exaggeration to say that it has been the cornerstone and the foundation of everything that we’ve managed to accomplish over the course of the last few generations in Asia."

The 16th annual Japan-US Security Seminar held January 15-16, was a good review of conventional wisdom on the US-Japan alliance. The event’s website provides a video clip of a panel discussion reviewing current thinking. Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage advises his colleagues "to get back up on the bicycle and ride" after they had the wind knocked out of them by the election of the DPJ. There is still a role for them to advise the new government.

A loose coalition of organizations and interests appears to be behind a new YouTube Channel seeking a greater dialogue on the US military presence on Okinawa. This site, 2010 Okinawa, hosts some of the discussion from the above Seminar as well as interviews with Okinawan citizens and activists. It is expanding daily to include commentary from all sides of the debate.

Image from here.

Haiti tests foreign aid and development policy

Less than a week after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a major policy speech (January 6th) promising to elevate "development as a central pillar of American foreign policy" and the swearing in of the new administrator the US Agency for International Development, Dr. Rajiv Shah (January 7th), that policy is being tested in Haiti. They both spoke of creating a new model of "partnership and not patronage" for American development assistance.

US aid and development policy is still under review. Two important reviews of American development policy are now underway. The first is the inaugural Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review by officials from USAID and the State Department (co-led by Policy Planning chief Anne-Marie Slaughter and Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew, with assistance from then-acting USAID coordinator Alonzo Fulgham). And the second, the Presidential Study Directive on US Global Development Policy (cannot find the announcement on the White House website) led by the White House (formally co-led by National Security Advisor General Jim Jones and chairman of the National Economic Council Larry Summers) and includes representatives from more than 15 agencies that contribute to the US global development mission.

For China and Taiwan, aid to Haiti remains one of patronage. Haiti is one of the few countries that still recognizes Taipei as the official China. Both Taipei and Beijing have sent rescue and medical teams for disaster relief. Taipei has pledged $5 million in aid, while Beijing $4.4 million. Eight Chinese UN police officers were killed in the earthquake. As APP member and Taiwan scholar Shelley Rigger of North Carolina's Davidson College observed, "What's really interesting here is that China apparently is providing Haiti with assistance without making any demands regarding Haiti's relationship with Taiwan."

President Ma Ying-jeou is scheduled to depart Taipei January 25th for Honduras via San Francisco to attend the January 27th inauguration of Honduran President-elect Portfirio Lobo Sosa. Following his Honduras visit, he will travel to the Dominican Republic for a brief stopover, during which he will deliver a speech expressing Taiwan's condolences for the Haitian quake victims and announcing the country's aid programs for Haiti.

One of the new intellectual trends driving the reevaluation of aid are efforts at "metrics" or measures of success. Dara in the United Kingdom publishes annually its Humanitarian Response Index. Created in 2007, the HRI is measures the individual performance of the top humanitarian donors. The index ranks the performance of the 22 donor countries of the OECD Development Assistance Committee plus the European Commission in funding and supporting humanitarian action. For 2009, Norway was ranked number 1, the US 14, Australia 10, New Zealand 11, and Japan 19.

The Center for Global Development sponsors the Commitment to Development Index. The index rates 22 rich countries on how much they help poor countries build prosperity, good government, and security. For 2009, Sweden had the highest score of 7, the United States 4.9, Australia 5.6, New Zealand 5.8, South Korea 2.8, and Japan 3.1.

For further research on the reevaluation of American foreign aid see these organizations: Modernizing Foreign Assistance, Center for Global Development, and Brookings' Wolfensohn Center for Development.

Did you make the China list?

Don't know your Du Zanqi from your Prasenjit Duara*? An enterprising chap at the University of Leipzig has a list you might be interested in. He is busy correlating Asia scholars' Western names with their Chinese names. So far he has over 600.

We at The Point say well done Philip Clart, er, that is 柯若樸.

* Prof. Du Zanqi and Prasenjit Duara are in fact the same person.

Are blood minerials for plunder or peace?

This will be the topic of discussion in two seminars scheduled this week in Washington:

NATURAL RESOURCES: PLUNDER OR PEACE. 1/12, 2:00-4:00pm, Washington DC. Sponsor: US Institute of Peace (USIP). Speaker: Paul Collier, Director, Center of African Economies, Oxford University, Nancy Birdsall, President, Center for Global Development and Raymond Gilpin, Director, Center for Sustainable Economies, USIP. Location: USIP, 1200 17th Street NW, 2nd Floor. This event is no longer accepting reservations and will be webcast.

Paul Collier discusses findings from his upcoming book The Plundered Planet: Why We Must--and How We Can--Manage Nature for Global Prosperity.

RESOLVING NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS: A PATH TO DEVELOPMENT AND PEACE. 1/13, Noon-2:00pm, Washington DC. Sponsor: Woodrow Wilson Center. Speakers: Aaron Wolf, Professor, Geosciences, Oregon State University, Gidon Bromberg, Co-Director, Friends of the Earth in the Middle East; Juan Dumas, Senior Adviser, Fundacion Futuro Latinamericano, Geoff Dabelko, Director, Environmental Change and Security, Woodrow Wilson Center. Location: B-338 Rayburn House Office Building.

The websites of these organizations can help you prepare for these discussions: Global Witness; Conflict Minerals; Enough Project; Stop Blood Minerals.

Last year, both the House and Senate introduced legislation to help stop the trade in conflict minerals. On November 19, 2009, Rep Jim McDermott (D-WA) introduced H.R. 4128, The Conflict Minerals Act of 2009. On April 23, 2009, Senators Sam Brownback (R-KS), Dick Durbin (D-IL), and Russ Feingold (D-WI) introduced S. 891, the Congo Conflict Minerals Act of 2009. Neither bill has been reported out of their appropriate committees.

Is the post-crash world more protectionist?

The Centre for Economic Policy Research in London thinks so and is trying to track the trends.

To do this, the Centre set up Global Trade Alert, which is supported by the World Bank and other international organizations. GTA's mission is to "provide information in real time on state measures taken during the current global economic downturn that are likely to discriminate against foreign commerce." So far, GTA has identified over 600 protectionist measures taken since November 2008 (if I read that correctly).

Their most recent report is: The Unrelenting Pressure of Protectionism: The 3rd GTA Report: A Focus on the Asia Pacific Region. You can find a summary HERE. One finding is that "discriminatory foreign subsidies have limited the contraction of Japanese exports during the crisis."

The Coordinator for GTA, Simon Evenett, will be in Washington this week. He will be speaking at the Washington International Trade Association program on Thursday, January 7th, THE 'P' WORD: MEASURING RISING PROTECTIONISM IN GLOBAL TRADE.

Eliminating nuclear threats

Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers, the report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, was released on December 15th in Tokyo to the Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan, Kevin Rudd and Yukio Hatoyama, by the Commission Co-Chairs, former foreign ministers Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi, at a ceremony at the Japanese Prime Minister’s residence.

According to the press release, the 230-page report does not suggest that nuclear weapons can be abolished soon or in the near future. It does recommend setting of a medium term ‘minimization point’ target - to be reached by 2025 - of a world with less than 2,000 nuclear warheads - a more than 90 per cent reduction of present nuclear arsenals. There are approximately 23,000 nuclear weapons now in existence.

The report was released shortly after it was revealed that the Government of Japan had lobbied the American Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States to retain for the defense of Japan submarine-based nuclear-tipped Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles or TLAM-Ns. Some analysts were not only surprised by Japan's pro-nuclear position, but wondered aloud if Tokyo understood how inaccurate and unreliable the ageing Tomahawks were.

Interestingly, the American mainstream press has not picked up on either story: the release of the Commission Report or Japanese government lobbying for retaining nuclear weapons.

Reporting

The Lowy Interpreter

The Australian

The Sydney Morning Herald

Troubling lessons from Japan's economy

“Lost Decade” in Translation: What Japan's Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession, by Syed, Murtaza H.; Kang, Kenneth ; Tokuoka, Kiichi by IMF Working Paper No. 09/282, December 1, 2009, 40pgs.

Supplied Summary: Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help.

Later: An editorial in the Sunday, January 3, 2010 New York Times takes up on the above. The Times Editor concludes, "The White House is now pushing another mini-stimulus plan for next year. Chances are it will need to do a lot more to push reform and boost the economy. If there is an overarching lesson from Japan’s lost decade, it is that half measures don’t pay."

New foreign policy journal

The National Defense University has launched a new, quarterly foreign policy/defense journal. Called the PRISM. It is:

tailored to serve policy-makers, scholars and practitioners working to enhance U.S. Government competency in complex operations by exploring whole-of-community approaches among U.S. Government agencies, academic institutions, international governments and militaries, non-governmental organizations and other participants in the complex operations space. PRISM is chartered by the Center for Complex Operations (CCO) and it welcomes articles on a broad range of complex operations issues, especially those that focus on the nexus of civil-military integration.

Hans Binnendijk and Patrick M. Cronin in the Journal's introductory article, Through the Complex Operations Prism explains the mission:

It has been over 12 years since the Bill Clinton administration released Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) 56, “Managing Complex Contingency Operations.” PDD 56 was issued in May 1997 to direct the institutionalization within the executive branch of lessons learned from such complex operations as Panama, Somalia, Haiti, and Bosnia. Our recent frustrations in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the deaths of over 5,000 American soldiers and civilians, and multiple trillions of dollars in war-related costs have caused us once again to scrutinize the failures of our approach to complex operations and to reapply ourselves to a better understanding of those operations and the environments they are meant to address.

The first issue also features an interview with former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.

Innovation in Singapore

Singapore does well on the many global innovation rankings, but the Singapore Competitiveness Report 2009 (released on 11/25/09, 92 pgs) by the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy points out some weaknesses in the country’s innovation system. Singapore's profile of relative strengths and weaknesses when it comes to innovation is atypical of advanced economies such as South Korea, Iceland, the US, and Japan. Instead, it is more similar to economies like Armenia, Peru and Uganda, the report says.

“Doing the math on innovation,” a Business Times article, discusses the report’s conclusions that Singapore should focus more on the commercialization of its science research. Instead of being an R&D hub, Singapore can position itself as a 'global connector of knowledge', refining its 'innovation-driven economy ambition' to include developing new concepts, management strategies, processes and business models.

China's foreign aid underwhelms

China’s Assistance and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia by Thomas Lum, Specialist in Asian Affairs , November 25, 2009, 19 pgs.

This report is largely based upon research conducted in 2007-2008 by graduate students at the New York University Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service under the supervision of Wagner School faculty and CRS specialists. The students’ findings, while not comprehensive, suggest a dramatic increase in PRC economic assistance and state-sponsored investment from 2002 through 2007. The numbers provided in this report are not meant to be interpreted as reliable foreign aid totals. Furthermore, some PRC loans or aid pledges may not have been fulfilled and some aid pledges that include multiple projects or that span several years may have been counted more than once.

According to the Wagner School research, during the 2002-2007 period, Africa received the greatest amount of loans and other economic assistance, followed by Latin America and Southeast Asia. The findings suggest that China’s aid activities in Africa and Latin America serve the PRC’s immediate economic interests, while those in Southeast Asia relate to longer term diplomatic or strategic objectives. In Africa and Southeast Asia, PRC-sponsored infrastructure and public works projects constitute the most common form of activity, while in Latin America, where some countries are more developed, Chinese natural resource development projects are more prominent.

China is fast becoming a top trading partner with Africa and Southeast Asia, and it is second to the United States as a market for Latin American commodities and goods. Although the PRC’s economic assistance activities are a highly visible reminder of China’s growing diplomatic and economic influence, or “soft power,” the European Union, the United States, and Japan continue to dominate foreign investment in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

Poll: Gulf still wide between Japanese and Chinese

The results of a recent opinion poll carried out jointly in Japan and China by the non-profit organization Genron NPO and a Chinese news agency underscore the deep-seated negative views that Japanese and Chinese continue to hold toward each other. The poll was produced for the 5th Beijing Tokyo Forum held in mid-October.

The poll shows, for example, that for many Chinese, Japan remains a “militarist country.” It reveals that there is still little direct contact between the two peoples and not much desire by Japanese and Chinese to know more about each other. Relying on the media for their information, Japanese and Chinese retain misperceptions and biases toward each other that should have evaporated years ago, based on the poll results.

Still, there are some signs of improvement in attitudes, as seen in this, the fifth annual survey sponsored by Genron. In each country, 80 percent of those surveyed admitted that the Japan-China relationship was “important”, and a growing number of Chinese are seeing current relationship with Japan as being in good shape. Japanese were less sure, with a large percentage unable to say whether bilateral ties were in good shape or not.

The Japan part of the joint poll was carried out May 19-June 17, 2009, using a direct interview method with effective responses from 1,000 adults over 18. The China side of the poll, carried out June 10-30, focused on five large cities, with 1589 Chinese responding. Due to the timeframe, the poll obviously does not reflect the Asia-friendly policy of the Democratic Party of Japan that won the national election on August 31, replacing the Liberal Democratic Party as ruling party. Some of the salient results of the poll are summarized below.