LDP-Komeito Coalition Loses Its Majority

Now what?

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 27, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The long-standing ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito shattered in Japan’s October 27 House of Representatives elections. They lost their simple majority. To continue its hold on the country’s leadership and policies, the traditional coalition needs to add at least 18 outside lawmakers in the House – yet it is not obvious where the 18 will come from. Meanwhile, the opposition parties are too fragmented to build a new coalition to counter a modified LDP and Komeito bloc. All this throws into question the direction of politics in Japan.
 
The House has 465 seats, and the majority is 233. The LDP lost 56 seats in the election, down from 247 to 191. Komeito lost six seats, going from 32 to 24. The two parties now have a total of 215 seats, 18 seats short of a majority.
 
Three opposition parties made significant gains at the LDP-Komeito coalition’s expense. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gained 148 seats, up 50 from its 98 seats before the election. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) quadrupled its seats from 7 to 28, and Reiwa Shinsengumi tripled its seats from 3 to 9. Two opposition parties lost seats, however. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) saw a reduction of six seats, from 44 to 38. The Japan Communist Party (JCP) lost two seats, from 10 to 8.
 
The biggest reason for the LDP’s losses was its reluctance to make meaningful political reforms. Despite public concern about the slush fund scandal, the LDP has not departed from the obsolete management of its political fund. Although the fund is discredited in Japan, the LDP nevertheless used it to distribute 20 million yen to their candidates, even including independent candidates who had been excluded from the LDP slate.
 
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to exercise his leadership to reform the party. In fact, he actively avoided reform. He decided to call the early snap election in part to avoid pre-election policy discussions in the Diet. Indeed, the snap election was contrary to his earlier position on timing. In addition, Ishiba embraced bad actors: he included 34 candidates in the LDP slate who had accepted secret funds from factions within the LDP. The election at least included a measure of justice: over half of the 34 lost their seats. These lost seats were the margin by which the LDP lost its majority. 
 
These were not the only significant losses. In the wake of the scandal, prominent and otherwise unassailable candidates lost, including Minister of Justice Hideki Makihara and Minister of Agriculture Yasuhiro Ozato, Traditional LDP heavyweights and prominent conservative nationalists, such as Hakubun Shimomura, Akira Amari, and Seishiro Eto, also were unseated. The former Abe faction within the LDP, the basis of conservative nationalism in the party, saw several members, including Tamayo Marukawa in Tokyo, go down in defeat. The chief representative of Komeito, Keiichi Ishii, also lost.
 
Article 54 of the Constitution requires that a Diet session must be convoked within 30 days after an election. The Cabinet will resign en masse. Then, each Chamber holds an election to nominate a new prime minister. If the Lower and Upper Houses nominate different people, the vote in the Lower House trumps that in the Upper House. The Diet is now scheduled to meet on November 11.
 
Ishiba will be reelected prime minister if he is a member of a majority coalition. But the LDP-Komeito coalition no longer has that majority. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the election will go to a run-off, which does not require majority. In the case of a run-off between Ishiba and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, Ishiba seems certain to win, because the opposition parties are not united to vote for Noda.
 
Once a coalition loses its majority, no bill submitted by the cabinet (i.e., annual budget bill) is sure to pass the Diet. The prime minister will always be exposed to the risk of a forced resignation if the opposition parties pass a no-confidence resolution. So, Prime Minister Ishiba must pull enough seats together to secure the majority. It is likely that some independent lawmakers who were dropped from the LDP slate will return to the LDP, but they would not be enough.
 
Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Ishiba floated to his aides the idea of cooperation with the DPP. The DPP has just enough members to take a coalition with the LDP and Komeito over the top. Although DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki once said that his party would not enter into a coalition with the LDP and Komeito, the DPP will cooperate with any party willing to implement DPP policies.
 
There are several ways to effect cooperation with the DPP: the DPP could send a member to join the cabinet as a minister, or it could enter into an agreement over some basic policies but without having a representative minister in the cabinet. The LDP once in the past invited some lawmakers of opposition parties to join them to secure majority.
 
The Ishiba administration’s policy agenda has lost its momentum because the LDP-Komeito coalition needs to focus on building a majority. The government is now supported by only a minority of the Lower House and may have to abandon some policies to invite some lawmakers into a majority coalition.
 
It is likely that security policies of Ishiba, such as revision of Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement or establishing Asian NATO, will significantly slow down. However, since CDP leader Noda is relatively aligned with the LDP on security issues, there will be no major conflicts over security issues, including diplomacy to enhance security in East Asia. Debates among the parties will center on political reform – an issue that is fatal for the LDP – and on how the budget may serve as an economic stimulus.
 
Meanwhile, Noda hopes to build a coalition of the opposition parties. Although the total sum of seats of the CDP, DPP, and Ishin is less than a majority of the House, a critical mass of lawmakers in the opposition parties can have an impact on such policies as political reform or the economy.

CDP Elects A New Leader

And its Yoshihiko Noda

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
Special to Asia Policy Point, September 23, 2024

Japan’s largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), elected former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda as its president in an extraordinary national convention on September 23. Noda’s goal is to take back the administration of the government from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Noda is entering a competition against the leading coalition in the election of House of Representatives, which is expected to be held soon after the LDP decides new president later this week.
 
The CDP Electoral Process
Four groups are eligible to vote for the CDP leader: 1) CDP lawmakers, 2) registered candidates for the next election of the Diet (for example, a former lawmaker who lost in last election but now plans to run in next election), 3) local assembly members registered to CDP, and 4) rank-and-file party members and supporters who have paid a membership fee.
 
CDP has 136 lawmakers in both Chambers of the Diet, each of whom has two points. Total points for the lawmakers are 272. Each of the 98 registered candidates for Diet election has one point, which amounts to 98 points. A total of 370 points is available.
 
Local assembly members of the CDP and rank-and-file members/supporters also have a total of 370 points. The CDP has about 1,200 local assembly members and about a 100,000 rank-and-file members and registered supporters in all over Japan. In the first round, each group has 185 points, totaling another 370. The points are allocated to the candidates pro rata, depending on the percentage of votes received.
 
In the second round, if no one secures a majority in the first round, lawmakers (with two points for each), registered candidates (one point for each) and delegates from CDP’s prefectural branches, which amount to 47 (one point for each), would vote.
 
The victorious candidate must receive at least 371 votes of the 740 available in round one. In the second round, the winner must obtain at least 209 of the 417 points.
 
The Election
Four candidates entered the race. Of the four, Noda received the largest number of votes from CDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members of the party. He collected 267 points in total: 128 points from lawmakers and registered candidates, and 139 points from local assembly members and rank-and-file members/supporters. The former head of CDP, Yukio Edano, received a total of 206 points with 83 and 123, respectively. Noda thus received stronger support among CDP lawmakers than did Edano, but both were well below the majority threshold of 371 votes. The other two candidates, the current head of the CDP, Kenta Izumi, and Harumi Yoshida were left behind by a wide margin.
 
Since no candidate secured the necessary 371-vote majority in the first round, Noda and Edano competed in a second-round runoff election. Noda secured 232 points, defeating Edano with 180 points. It was clear from the runoff that registered candidates preferred Noda to Edano.
 
Noda’s Policies
Noda’s victory reflects the party members’ appreciation of Noda’s political skill as a veteran lawmaker and his experience as prime minister. Of course, Noda is also known as the prime minister who, in calling a snap election in 2012, handed the administration back to Shinzo Abe and the LDP for many years. Still, neither Edano nor Izumi has a brilliant record as the head of the CDP.
 
In the Diet discussion about the LDP’s slush fund scandal, Noda argued forcefully against Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and demanded fundamental reforms of the political activity funds. Yet Noda also delivered an impressive eulogy in the Diet in October 2022, regretting Abe’s early death before the CD took back the administration from the LDP. “I do not want to accept this end with your win,” said Noda.
 
It is likely that CDP members have accepted such LDP-friendly activities of Noda because he is one of the leaders of the party. He emphasizes his stance to reach out to moderate conservatives. Some in the CDP recognized his stance as workable as a strategy for next general election.
 
Noda has said that regime change would be the greatest reform of the LDP’s activities. He has criticized lawmakers in the LDP who have inherited political assets without the imposition of any tax. Noda is challenging LDP politics deeply rooted in inheritance of seats in the Diet from father to son.
 
The CDP platform is unequivocally opposed to nuclear power plants, but Noda’s commitment to the goal is less clear. “It is how we promote realistic policies with embracing our ideal,” Noda said about the issue of nuclear power plants.
 
Noda has not supported immediate change to security legislation that was introduced by Abe administration, but that has been criticized as unconstitutional. While Edano, Izumi and Yoshida would revise the status of forces agreement with the United States, Noda has only said that he would talk with U.S. on the issue, respecting opinions of the people in Okinawa.
 
These political stances may cause friction with the CDP’s left flank. It is possible for Noda to seek cooperation with other opposition parties, especially conservative ones, but the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has been reluctant to do so. The CDP and Ishin compete with each other in a large number of Lower House electoral districts. The Democratic Party for the People is watching Noda’s handling of the CDP.
 
Noda’s concept for cooperation marks the sharpest difference from Edano. Edano ran for the CDP leadership premised on an administration run solely by the CDP. But Noda thinks that exclusive CDP administration is unrealistic. He instead hopes to maximize the seats of all opposition parties to push the LDP into a minority. 
 
However, a coalition government may not be especially realistic either. The conservative Noda has not sought to cooperate with the Japan Communist Party (JCP). The JCP has already announced that it would field candidates in some electoral districts where the CDP has its own candidates. Whether Noda can unite the CDP and the opposition parties remains to be seen.
 
Noda’s People
On September 24, Noda, picked Jun-ya Ogawa for the CDP’s Secretary General. He also selected Kazuhiko Shigetoku for Chairman of the Policy Research Council and Hirofumi Ryu for Chairman of the Diet Affairs Committee. Hiroshi Ogushi stays as the Chairman of Election Strategy Committee. Noda appointed Ogushi, Akira Nagatsuma, and Kiyomi Tsujimoto as Deputy Heads of the party. By appointing members younger than himself as board members, Noda hopes to give a fresh face to the party for voters in the coming House of Representatives’ general election.
 
Nagatsuma, 64, is known as a specialist of welfare issues, dubbed as “Mr. Pension System,”and Tsujimoto, 64, positions herself on the left side of the party, who is known as a liberal lawmaker starting her political career as a member of the Social Democratic Party.
 
Ogawa, Shigetoku, and Ryu supported Noda in the leader’s election of the CDP. While Noda had a choice to appoint other candidates to the board to demonstrate unification of the party, he rather chose to exclude his contenders from his team. The leadership with like-minded lawmakers may make policy promotion easier, but it can leave some instability in the party for internal struggle over basic policies.
 
Ogawa, 53, is known as a liberal lawmaker who frequently stood for questioning in the committees of the Diet. He formerly worked for Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications. In 2021, he ran in the leader’s election losing to Kenta Izumi. Ogawa worked for Izumi as the Chairman of Policy Research Council. Although Ogawa has built a framework of electoral cooperation with some other opposition parties, including Japan’s Communist Party, in Kagawa 1 district, JCP announced that it would field its own candidate in the district, indicating termination of its cooperation.
 
Shigetoku, 54, is a member of House of Representatives, and the head of a CDP policy group called the Chokkan-no Kai (Group of Remonstration). The group has between 10 to 12 members, many who demanded that Noda run in the leadership election. He was a bureaucrat in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications before becoming a member of the Diet, and formerly affiliated to Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai).
 
Hirofumi Ryu, 59, is a specialist in Diet affairs. He had been a TV Asahi political journalist. He joined the Party of Hope, led by the Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike, in 2017. He joined CDP in 2021.
 
Hiroshi Ogushi, 59, has been the chair of election strategy under the leadership of Izumi from 2021. Because there might soon be a snap election, Noda decided not to change the party’s election chief.

Voters Strike a Blow Against the Kishida Administration

But not a knock out punch

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
April 29, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

On Sunday, April 28, voters firmly rejected the Kishida administration and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In three by-elections of the House of Representatives, the LDP lost all three seats. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won all three races.

The results reflect public frustration with Kishida’s handling of the slush fund scandal and the LDP’s slow progress on political reform. The elections dealt a significant blow to Kishida’s efforts to preserve his administration.

By-elections are held twice a year, ordinarily in April and October, when a seat of any district of both Chambers of the Diet is vacant, either by resignation of a lawmaker, death or for other reasons.

One of the three by-elections, the election in the Shimane-1 district, followed the death of the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hosoda. Hosoda was the head of the Seiwa-kai faction, also known as the Abe faction, which was at the epicenter of the slush fund scandal. Hosoda was also suspected of having close ties to the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, the former Unification Church, and of having sexually harassed a female reporter.

In the one-on-one match-up in Shimane-1, Akiko Kamei of the CDP defeated Norimasa Nishikori of the LDP by a margin of 25,000 votes. It was almost the same as Hosoda’s winning margin in the last election in 2021. Swing voters who voted for Hosoda three years ago shifted to Kamei.

Kamei’s victory was the LDP’s first loss in this highly conservative district since the current election system was introduced in 1996. Although the Shimane branch of the LDP has been split since the gubernatorial election in 2019, the result of the by-election is widely interpreted as a protest by LDP supporters against Kishida’s indecisive handling of the slush fund scandal.

The second by-election, held in the Tokyo-15 district, filled a vacancy left by the resignation of the former LDP Representative, Mito Kakizawa. He stepped down after his arrest on suspicion of bribery in a mayoral election in Koto city, Tokyo. The LDP did not have a candidate on the ballot, and the election became a contest among nine candidates of the opposition parties.

Natsumi Sakai of the CDP won the race, with the support of the Japan Communist Party. Sakai’s victory showed that the CDP and the JCP can work together successfully in a race that does not include a LDP candidate. The Japan Innovation Party, or Nippon Ishin, took third in the race. A candidate supported by the popular governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, came in fifth.

The third by-election was held in the district of Nagasaki-3 after the resignation of Yaichi Tanigawa. He had been indicted on charges of receiving over 40 million yen in kickbacks from the Abe faction. The LDP did not have a candidate in the race. The CDP’s Katsuhiko Yamada won the seat with 53,000 votes, twice the number of votes that Ishin’s candidate received.

The message of the results in Tokyo-15 and Nagasaki-3 is that voters who gave up on the LDP turned to the CDP, rather than to Ishin. Although the LDP did not field a candidate in two of the three districts, the LDP was seen as suffering defeats in three elections. “It was an extremely severe result. We hope to restore confidence through accumulating efforts for political reform and leading political agenda to solution,” said LDP Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, on the night after the elections.

Defeat in Shimane was a particularly significant blow to the Kishida administration. Typically, the prime minister will join campaigns only for winnable districts in a general election. Kishida unusually campaigned in Shimane-1 twice. The LDP’s loss surely tarnished Kishida’s reputation.

The LDP tried to avoid outright voter rejection by not offering candidates in Tokyo-15 and Nagasaki-3. But the sweeping victory by the CDP and low voter turnout in those two districts showed considerable resentment of old-style LDP politics – the undisclosed use of political funds. The results in the two districts may signal a trend in other districts all over Japan. Indeed, they may mark the end of the era of LDP’s unilateral domination.

The results of the by-elections shocked LDP lawmakers. They will now be forced into close races in the next election. They will certainly oppose a snap election. An attempt by Kishida to call one in June would instigate a movement in the LDP to replace Kishida. Party members will look for a leader who can reduce the number of victims of an unpopular leader in next election.

So far, such a movement has not materialized. Leaders of the Abe faction had questioned Kishida’s leadership. But they have been inactive since they were subjected to severe penalties in the aftermath of the slush fund scandal.

Although Motegi or former Premier Yoshihide Suga have tried to rally some in LDP, there is not a movement for either. The most popular figure to replace Kishida, Shigeru Ishiba, has not decided to run for the presidential election. A strange silence has descended on the LDP. But it is likely that someone or something will ignite a movement against Kishida, as the party heads to the presidential election in the fall.

Even the CDP cannot be optimistic about the next general election. Their three victories were the result of LDP errors. A framework of electoral cooperation is essential if other parties are to replace an LDP administration. The Head of the CDP, Kenta Izumi, once told reporters that it would take five years for CDP to achieve a regime change. It is up to Izumi to build a viable strategy quickly to replace the LDP in the next general election.