Takaichi Considers an Early Snap Election

Takaichi Considers an Early Snap Election

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow,  Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 12, 2026

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly is considering dissolution of the Lower House at the beginning of the ordinary session of the Diet, now scheduled to convene on January 23. A snap election would follow in early or mid-February. Her motivation is to restore the power of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) before her cabinet’s approval rating falls. If she does so, she will face criticism for bringing about a period of political vacancy and leaving behind the Diet’s discussion of the FY2026 budget bill.
 
“I asked my ministers to execute policies included in the supplementary budget as early as possible. It is important to let the people realize the benefit of measures taken by my Cabinet to curb price inflation. I am focused on those immediate issues,” Takaichi said  in her new year’s press conference on January 5. This answer to a question from press was widely interpreted as a firm refusal to call an early snap election.
 
Four days later, late on the night of January 9, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Takaichi was thinking of an early snap election. According to Yomiuri, the Lower House election would be on February 8 or 15, if the House were dissolved on the first day of ordinary session, January 23. Mainichi Shimbun published a similar account early in the morning of January 10, and other media outlets followed on January 11.
 
It is well established that the prime minister has the power to dissolve the Lower House.  This authority derives from the cabinet’s duty to advise and approve the Emperor’s actions in matters of state. These actions include dissolving the Lower House. Once the Lower House is dissolved, Japan’s Constitution requires that a general election take place within 40 days. The period from dissolution to election has diminished in recent snap elections. The last Lower House election was in October 2024. Some argue that calling a snap election in a short period may be an abuse of power.
 
The rationale for an early snap election is Takaichi’s relatively high popularity. She has maintained a 60 to 70 percent approval rating in the polls since she took office last October. Some lawmakers in the LDP expect that the party will secure a large enough victory to give the LDP a simple majority in the Lower House. They also expect that the high approval rating will decline as discussions in the ordinary Diet session continue.
 
Even with a majority in the Lower House, Takaichi’s government, including the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), does not have a majority in the Upper House. If the LDP wins a majority in a Lower House snap election, Takaichi will still need to ask opposition parties for support to pass bills in the Upper House. It is possible that an endorsement by the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) of the FY2026 budget bill, which is to be discussed in the coming ordinary session, has encouraged Takaichi to contemplate an early election.
 
To have an early and successful snap election, Takaichi must counter criticisms of her decision. She argues that a majority will ensure action to support her priorities. The highest one on her list is support for people suffering from price inflation, for which she has adopted the slogan of “responsible and proactive public finances.” Although she delivered a certain amount of economic stimulus in the supplemental budget last year, anti-inflation measures are only at a halfway point.
 
If the snap election occurs, no discussion of the FY2026 budget bill can take place until new Lower House members are elected, the Lower House elects a prime minister (presumably Takaichi) again, and the newly elected prime minister delivers a policy speech to the Diet. The budget bill is unlikely to pass the Diet before the end of March.  Without a finished budget bill, the government will have to develop a provisional budget for FY2026 beginning in April.
 
A snap election creates political vacancy, though she said wants to deal with price inflation. There is no reason or cause for dissolution,” the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Yoshihiko Noda, said. Noda also indicated that the regular convocation of the ordinary session could invite some discussions that Takaichi does not want to face. There is speculation that Takaichi is afraid of questioning in the Diet about her relationship with the former Unification Church. Weekly Bunshun has reported that the Church had hoped that she would become the LDP president.
 
The DPP leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, has expressed his concern that an early election would delay implementation of the economic policies embedded in the FY2026 budget bill. “A dissolution will leave the economy behind,” he said. Although he had agreed with Takaichi last December to support passage of the FY2026 budget bill by the end of March, Tamaki said that he would now reconsider that agreement. The Chief Representative of Komeito, Tetsuo Saito, was terser: when questioned about an early election in light of the urgent issues in economy and foreign affairs, he said, “Why now?”
 
The LDP and the JIP have not reached any agreement on electoral cooperation in the single-seat districts of the Lower House. If JIP suffers a significant defeat in the snap election, particularly in those districts, JIP may reconsider the merits of its coalition with the LDP. The DPP may also rethink its approach to the Takaichi administration if the party loses seats in the Lower House election and finds the coalition to be unbeneficial. A victory by the LDP thus could undermine its coalition framework.
 
Takaichi’s policies have not achieved outstanding results. The Japanese yen has continued to depreciate and fell to 158 yen to the dollar after news broke of a possible snap election. The fall was interpreted as reflecting a concern that Takaichi’s “proactive” fiscal policy would further destabilize the government’s delicate financial balance. The political vacancy resulting from a snap election will delay delivery of an economic stimulus package.
 
On the international front, ever since Takaichi’s comment on the Taiwan contingency, China has been boosting its pressure on Japan. China most recently announced that it would impose greater restrictions on exports of dual-use goods to Japan. Although China ruled out regulation of private trade, The Wall Street Journal has reported that China has begun choking supply of rare-earths. Takaichi has not taken either effective countermeasures or other steps to mend the relationship with China.
 
Takaichi has stressed that her upcoming March visit to the United States is one of her diplomatic achievements. But President Donald Trump is focusing elsewhere, such as pursuing his America First agenda in Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, and Iran. The Japan-China relationship is out of his sight. Trump also wants to have a successful, grand summit with China’s Xi Jinping in April. A snap election will give voters in Japan a chance to evaluate Takaichi’s diplomatic work.