Thursday, June 7, 2018

When Abe meets Trump


Abe meets with President Trump on Thursday, June 7.

It is unlikely to go well, unless Abe brings a very publicity-worthy concession to Trump. Just as Japan is missing from the print edition of the latest CIA World Factbook, it is also missing from the President’s playbook.

Prime Minister Abe made a grave mistake of trying to form a personal relationship with the new American president. Whereas Trump liked the good press of their golf outings and of confronting a North Korean missile launch in a public dining room, he was likely disappointed not to see more drama develop. Trump has had to settle for the “drama” of a tense relationship with Japan.

Trump still dismisses Japan as free-riding off the US military and economy. Japan’s contribution to the North Korea discussions has been to issue reminders about Japanese abductees held in North Korea and to urge broader definitions of WMD that include more than nuclear weapons are further dismissed are unhelpful, if not obstructionist to any peace deal with Pyongyang.

Unlike the South Koreans' President Moon, Abe has offered neither impressive trade concessions nor the vocal solidarity of a good ally. Trump is unlikely moved by stories of 12 probably dead Japanese abductees. This gives him no dramatic footage of his meeting them on the tarmac. The casino legislation introduced and passed soon after Abe’s November 2016 meeting with Trump probably did not impress either. Any ribbon cutting is years down the road and operations would be hindered by peculiar restrictions.

Abe cannot expect help from Trump’s new favorites, China and South Korea. The Prime Minister’s campaign to re-adjust Pacific War history glorifying Imperial Japan has alienated and annoyed all of the island nation’s neighbors. None have an incentive to trust his foreign policy judgment. Abe’s security vision, first of an “Arc of Democracy” and now of a “security diamond” excludes both China and South Korea.

To right the relationship with the White House, Abe needs a magic moment. He needs dramatic signing ceremonies with a smiling Trump, happy Trump constituents, and photos that linger. Surely there is an industrial and agricultural market to open; a US military exercise to join; and a POW reconciliation program to enhance (MOFA just scuttled it). Trump is weary of hearing what Japan can’t do or even will do; he wants to know what Japan will do now. Trump relishes the moment.

If a desperate Abe brings nothing dramatic to the table, the only thing memorable about his trip will be that the Korean-American community exhibited a Comfort Women memorial in the Capitol Building on the day of his visit.

Monday, June 4, 2018

Is Trump stringing Abe along?

Yes, because Abe does not understand the deal
EastAsiaForum, June 3. 2018
Glen S Fukushima, Center for American Progress and APP member 
Japan has been reeling ever since 8 March when US President Donald Trump met with South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong and announced, to the world’s surprise, that he would accept the offer to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Until then, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was confident that he was ‘managing’ Trump well, starting with the meeting in Trump Tower on 17 November 2016 that made him the first foreign leader to meet with the then president-elect.This was followed by the meeting in Washington, DC on 10 February 2017 and golf and dinner in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, when North Korea’s missile launching forced an impromptu news conference pledging US–Japan solidarity against North Korea.
By the time Trump visited Japan on 5 November 2017, the two leaders had had several face-to-face meetings and nearly 20 telephone calls to coordinate on North Korea. In addition, Abe and his aides were pleased that Trump had adopted the slogan of the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’, since the idea of a US–Japan–India–Australia alliance against China was already a centrepiece of Abe’s diplomacy.
But contrary to Abe’s expectation, Trump started to show his true colours by the beginning of his second year in office. On 22 January 2018, Trump announced the imposition of 30 per cent tariffs on Chinese solar panels and 50 per cent tariffs on South Korean refrigerators exported to the United States. On 1 March, he announced the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on steel and 10 per cent tariffs on aluminium exported to the United States. Most alarming to Japan, on 23 May, Trump ordered an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 on whether the import of automobiles could constitute a national security threat to the United States, justifying the imposition of tariffs of up to 25 per cent.
All of this is a reflection of Donald Trump’s worldview, which was shaped in the 1980s. During this period he gave numerous speeches and interviews in which he decried the United States’ decline, which he blamed on foreigners taking advantage of the United States. In 1987, he paid nearly US$100,000 to place full-page ads in the New York TimesWashington Post and Boston Globe to criticise Japan for stealing US jobs, exporting to the United States but not importing, manipulating its currency for export advantage and free-riding on defence.
Trump writes on page 53 of The Art of the Deal: ‘The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without’.
Based on his numerous meetings with Abe, Trump knows that Japan cannot do without US military support against China and North Korea. In addition, he knows that Abe, for domestic political purposes, needs to show progress on the issue of Japanese abducted by North Korea. In return for providing Abe what he needs, Trump is expecting from Japan economic concessions, both on a national and personal level.
At this point, however, Japan is not as important for Trump as North Korea, South Korea and China. These countries hold the key to Trump’s political future: maintaining a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and in the Senate in the midterm elections of 6 November 2018 and winning re-election on 3 November 2020. Trump is using foreign policy to deflect attention away from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible collusion with Russia by Trump and his team during the 2016 presidential campaign and subsequent obstruction of justice and conflicts of interest, from the lawsuits filed by Stormy Daniels and other women, and from the investigation into Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen.
By meeting with Kim Jong-un in Singapore on 12 June, Trump hopes to emulate former US president George W Bush in 2001. The Gallup Poll showed Bush’s approval rating on 1 February 2001 to be only 57 per cent. But by 22 September, it had jumped to 90 per cent as a result of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States. After his meeting with Kim Jong-un on 12 June, Trump is certain to declare victory, thereby demonstrating to the world his genius as a dealmaker, his qualifications to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and his right to win the elections in November 2018 and 2020.
Abe has scheduled a meeting in Washington, DC with Trump on 7 June — five days before the 12 June meeting — in order to make a last-ditch plea to include in the Trump–Kim meeting the return of Japanese abductees, the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, and the dismantling of not only North Korea’s missiles that can reach the continental United States, but also the short- and medium-range missiles that can hit Japan.
For both Abe and Trump, foreign policy victories are imperative to win elections in the face of severe domestic political pressures.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Monday in Washington, June 4, 2018

2018 EIA ENERGY CONFERENCE. 6/4-5. Sponsor: U.S. Energy Information Agency. Speakers include: Linda Capuano, Administrator, EIA; Kevin J. McIntyre, Chairman, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Mark Lauby, Senior Vice President & Chief Reliability Officer, North American Electric Reliability Corporation; David Patton, President, Potomac Economics; Gordon van Welie, President & CEO, ISO New England Inc.; Nicholas Chase, Lead Economist, Transportation Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis Team, EIA; Robert Clarke, Research Director, Lower 48, Wood Mackenzie. Moderators: Vipin Arora, Team Lead, Macroeconomic Analysis, EIA; Hannah Breul, Team Lead, Petroleum Markets, EIA.

MARAWI SIEGE: A ONE-YEAR ASSESSMENT. 6/4, 9:00-10:30am. Sponsor: Asia Foundation, US-Philippines Society. Speakers: Aleem Guiapal, Executive Director of REZA-ARMM; Hubert H. Humphrey; Sam Chittick, Asia Foundation's Philippine Representative.

MARITIME SECURITY DIALOGUE: INNOVATION AND THE MARINE AIR-GROUND TASK FORCE. 6/4, 10:00-11:30am. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Lt Gen Brian D. Beaudreault, USMC, Deputy Commandant, Plans, Policies, and Operations; Lt Gen Robert Hedelund, USMC Commanding General, II Marine Expeditionary Force; Lt Gen Robert Walsh, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Dr. Maren Leed, Senior Analyst, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Moderator: Mark F. Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program. 

TECHNOLOGY ROULETTE: MANAGING LOSS OF CONTROL AS MANY MILITARIES PURSUE TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY” REPORT LAUNCH. 6/4, 11:00-Noon. Sponsor: Center for New American Security (CNAS). Speakers: The Honorable Dr. Richard Danzig, Former Secretary of the Navy and Senior Advisor for the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory; General James E. Cartwright (USMC, Ret.), Former Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Inaugural Harold Brown Chairholder at CSIS; Dr. Jeff Alstott, Program Manager at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA); Dr. Valerie Browning, Director of the Defense Sciences Office (DSO) at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); Hosted by Paul Scharre, Director of the CNAS Technology & National Security Program.

GOVERNORS AS THE NEW AMBASSADORS: THE RISE OF STATE-LEVEL PUBLIC DIPLOMACY. Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Public Diplomacy Alumni Association. Speakers: Scott Pattison, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of the National Governors Association, and Tiffany Shackelford, Chief Strategic Officer and Director of the NGA’s new Global office https://www.nga.org/cms/global.

DOING JUSTICE: ELECTING THE BEST JUDGES AND COMMISSIONERS TO ENFORCE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS LAW. 6/4,1:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: AU Washington College of Law-Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law. Speakers: Christian De Vos, Open Society Justice Initiative, Advocacy Officer; Viviana Krsticevic, Center for Justice and International Law, Executive Director; Juan E Méndez, American University Washington College of Law; William Pace, Coalition for the International Criminal Court, Convener; Katya Salazar, Due Process of Law Foundation, Executive Director. 

COMMEMORATING VICTIMS OF STALIN’S REPRESSIONS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE. 6/4, 3:30-5:00pm. Sponsor: Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC). Speakers: Dmytro Bielobrov, Head of 'The Last Address'; Grigory Frolov, Vice President, Free Russia Foundation; Sergey Parkhomenko, George F. Kennan Expert. 

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Remembering American POWs killed at Hiroshima

May 28th, 2018. MEMORIAL DAY POW PLAQUE UNVEILING IN LOWELL, MA HONORING AMERICAN POWS OF JAPAN. Centralville Veterans dedicate a new plaque honoring the 12 Americans killed in and from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, August 6, 1945. The new memorial joins the nine others in the park, which collectively display the names of over 3,000 service members. Special guests will be Mr. and Mrs. Shigeaki Mori from Japan, the subject of the documentary film, Paper Lanterns, that recounts Mr. Mori’s 35-year quest to identify the American POW aviators who perished and to notify their families. Mr. Mori was the Hiroshima survivor that President Barack Obama hugged at his speech in Hiroshima. The families and friends of two of the POWs he identified--Normand Brissette, U.S. Navy and Ralph Neal, USAAC--will be at the ceremony. The event will begin at 9:00AM. Location: Centralville Memorial Park, 700 Aiken Street, Lowell, MA 01850, at the intersection of Aiken and Ennell Streets, at the foot of Aiken Bridge, MAP  
PRESS RELEASE

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/24, 7:00–9:00pm, San Francisco, CA. Sponsor: Asian Art Museum. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Asian Art Museum, Samsung Hall, 200 Larkin Street.

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/25, 6:00–7:30pm, Mountain View, CA. Sponsor: Community School of Music and Arts. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Community School of Music and Arts, 230 San Antonio Circle.

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/30, 7:30–9:15pm, Boston, MA. Sponsor: Museum of Fine Arts, Boston. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, Harry and Mildred Remis Auditorium (Auditorium 161), Avenue of the Arts, 465 Huntington Avenue.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Monday in Washington, May 21, 2018

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will deliver remarks on After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy” at The Heritage Foundation at 9:00am. It will be broadcast live on both the Heritage and State Department Websites.“

AFTER ISIS, WILL IRAQ’S ELECTIONS BE THE NEXT STEP TO STABILITY? 5/21, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: USIP. Speakers: Joshua Johnson, Moderator, Host, NPR's 1A; Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar, U.S.-Middle East Security and Foreign Policies, AEI; Denise Natali, Director, Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University; Sarhang Hamasaeed, Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace. 

MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE IRAN DEAL: FROM ESCALATION TO CONFLAGRATION? 5/21, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Nicholas Blanford, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, Beirut Correspondent, Christian Science Monitor; Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser on Syria, US Institute of Peace, Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, Middle East Bureau, US Agency for International Development;  Faysal Itani, Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council.

Will Greater Gender Equity Bring Higher Productivity?

Japan's Cabinet on May 18th approved a resolution to encourage gender equality in politics. At the same time, however, the Cabinet issued a cabinet decision saying that sexual harassment is not a crime. The ruling said "under the current legal system, 'criminal sexual harassment' does not exist." This essentially makes Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso's similar statement now government policy. It should be noted that the Kono Statement, the 1993 putative apology to the Comfort Women for sex slavery does not have the official imprimatur of a cabinet decision.

To address much of Japan's gender inequality, the Diet is deliberating laws to reform working life. Commenting on this is APP Board Member and Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Steven K. Vogel in the Toyo Keizai, May 17,2018

As the Diet continues deliberation on the detailed provisions of the Work Style Reform bill, it is easy to miss the bigger picture. But Japan has a unique opportunity to remedy some of the worst flaws of its employment system, such as blatant gender discrimination, while boosting productivity at the same time.

There is no guarantee that Japan will achieve such a “win-win” outcome, but that is all the more reason for Japan’s political leaders, ministry officials, company managers, union representatives, workers and citizens to keep their eye on the prize.

Japan is unique among the advanced industrial countries in the degree to which its government is now focused on labor market issues. The Abe administration has declared this to be the “Work Style Reform Diet,” and it has also launched a major effort to rethink education and training, the so-called “human resources revolution” (hitozukuri kakumei).

So in Japan the questions are not ones of political will, but of policy substance and workplace-level implementation. Can the government get it right? And will employers follow through?

The transition from labor surplus to labor shortage presents the perfect opportunity to address the systemic gender discrimination embedded in Japan’s starkly tiered employment system. The trend has become unmistakable over the past few years, as unemployment dipped to 2.5 percent and the job offers to applicants ratio surged to 1.6:1 as of March this year.

The government and industry have responded by shifting their goals from the zero-sum enterprise of shedding workers and lowering labor costs toward the positive-sum mission of increasing female workforce participation and enhancing labor productivity.

Just consider this: Japan now has a conservative ruling party that is promoting social democratic goals like equal pay for equal work and lower working hours. True, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is not advocating these measures for the same reasons as the left opposition, and it will not implement them in the same way. It is more concerned about increasing the labor force, enhancing productivity, stimulating consumption, and boosting the birth rate than in promoting equal rights per se.

Nonetheless, the LDP and the opposition parties agree on the most important elements of labor reform. As one labor union representative lamented to me: “The LDP leaders are clever. They want to win elections. So they take the best ideas from the opposition and they make them their own.”

This is actually a classic LDP strategy. LDP leaders adopted opposition proposals for stronger environmental protection and higher social welfare spending in the 1970s. Prime Minister Koizumi assumed the opposition’s critique of his own party as clientelistic and corrupt in the 2000s. And now Prime Minister Abe has embraced the empowerment of women and the improvement of working life.
Gender Equality as a “Win-Win” Proposition

Promoting gender equality and improving worker welfare should encourage more women to join the workforce and enhance labor productivity overall. Companies will be able to recruit more women by providing a better work environment, including day care facilities, child and elder care leave, more limited working hours, and greater opportunities for advancement.

Greater gender equality should increase productivity for the simple reason that discrimination means that companies are under-utilizing a key pool of talent. Hitotsubashi University Economist Kyoji Fukao notes that Japan ranks at the top among rich countries in literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving, yet it stands out in its low usage of the skills of females at work.

And Isamu Yamamoto of Keio University finds that Japanese listed firms with higher shares of female regular workers are more profitable. In pursuing gender equality, moreover, the government will also address other pressing social problems, including childcare and elder care, economic inequality, and the lack of flexibility in career choices.

The equal pay for equal work provisions in the reform bill are critical to addressing the gender gap. Of course, Japan formally committed to gender equality with the Equal Employment Opportunity Law in 1986.

But companies have preserved discrimination in practice via separate career tracks: a permanent track (seiki), primarily for men, and a “temporary” track (hiseiki), primarily for women. They have justified differences in pay, benefits, and job security on the basis of different levels of “constraint” (kousokusei).

That is, the permanent workers were obligated to accept overtime hours, geographical transfers, and new job assignments whereas the temporary workers were not. The current bill and implementation plans begin to address this problem by prohibiting the most blatantly unjustifiable discrepancies in compensation.

For example, employers will not be able to offer different commuter allowances for regular workers versus non-regular workers, because they cannot justify this difference by the different levels of obligation to accept assignments in the two categories.

Evaluating the Work Style Reforms
I have been struck in my field research on this topic that Japanese government officials are fully aware that simply declaring gender equity and diversity as a goal will not suffice. They are consciously designing mechanisms to monitor progress at the firm level, to reward companies that comply and punish those that do not.

On gender equity, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare devised a star (eruboshi) system to recognize companies for their effort, with three levels of achievement based on five criteria: female hiring, job tenure, work style (including working hours), share of executives, and multiplicity of career courses.

It is easy to make fun of this point system, given that it lacks an enforcement mechanism. But at least it represents a large-scale effort to influence practices at the workplace level, which is the ultimate goal, after all.

On equal pay for equal work, ministry officials took the unusual approach of issuing detailed guidelines before passing the reform law. They cannot impose penalties for non-compliance, but they can issue administrative guidance (gyousei shidou). And companies will have an incentive to comply with the guidelines because judges might refer to them in the case of disputes.

There are some real signs of progress, albeit modest ones. Female workforce participation has increased from 63.4% in 2012 to 68.2% in 2016. The female share of corporate executives increased steadily from a low base from 2012 to 2016, from 14.4% to 18.6% for subsection chief (kakarichō), from 7.9% to 10.3% for section chief (kachō), and from 4.9% to 6.6% for department chief (buchō), according to the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare.

An assessment of work style reform boils down to the proverbial glass half empty versus glass half full. Given the glacial pace of Japan’s shift toward gender equity in the workplace over the past 30 years, and the bias toward employer-friendly reforms over the past 20 years, I view the current reform efforts as a welcome change, both in pace and direction.

Those frustrated by the limitations of the current bill should direct their efforts to ensuring that the government enforces the provisions and that industry changes its practices accordingly. And then they should aim yet higher in the next stage of reform.

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Monday in Washington, May 14, 2018

XI'S THREE BATTLES: CHINA'S CREDIT RISKS. 5/14, 9:30-11:00am. Sponsor: Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS. Speakers: Andrew Polk, founding partner of Trivium/China, a Beijing-based advisory firm, and Gene Ma, Chief China Economist at the Institute of International Finance.

THE U.S.-CHINA DIGITAL ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITY, COMPROMISE AND PERIL. 5/14, 10:00-11:30. Sponsor: Kissinger Institute, Wilson Center. Speakers: Wenhong Chen, Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin Visiting Fellow, East-West Center; Aynne Kokas, Fellow, Assistant Professor of Media Studies, University of Virginia.

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN CHINA. 5/14, 2:30-4:00pm. Sponsor: Asia Program, Carnegie. Author: Mark Hibbs, Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie. Speaker: Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS. Moderator: James Acton, Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program, Senior Fellow, Carnegie.

PSYCHOLOGY OF A SUPERPOWER: SECURITY AND DOMINANCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY. 5/14, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Cato. Speakers: author, Christopher J. Fettweis, Associate Professor of Political Science, Tulane University​; Keir A. Lieber, Director, Center for Security Studies and Security Studies Program,​ Georgetown University and Associate Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School ​of Foreign Service​; Moderated by John Mueller, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute.

HOW TO TALK TO NORTH KOREA. 5/14, 10:00-11:00am. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Suzanne DiMaggio, Director & Senior Fellow, New America; Robert L. Gallucci, Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy, Georgetown University; Christopher Hill, Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement, Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy, University of Denver; Daniel Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute. Moderator: Mark Landler, White House Correspondent, New York Times.

UNDERSTANDING SECESSIONIST STRUGGLE IN SOUTH ASIA. 5/14, 11:00am-12:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Asia Program, Wilson Center. Speaker: Dr. Ahsan Butt, Assistant Professor, George Mason University, Author, Succession and Security: Explaining State Strategy Against Separatists.

VERIFIED DENUCLEARIZATION OF NORTH KOREA: MECHANICS AND PROSPECTS. 5/14, Noon-2:00pm. Sponsor: Institute for Science and International Security and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Speakers: David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security and Houston Wood, University of Virginia.

U.S. & INDIA: FROM ESTRANGED DEMOCRACIES TO NATURAL ALLIES. 5/14, 1:00-5:00pm. Sponsor: Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS. Speakers: Dr. John J. Hamre, President & CEO, CSIS; Amb. Navtej Sarna, Ambassador of India to the United States; Amb. Frank Wisner, Counsel, Squire Patton Boggs; Amb. Susan Esserman, Chair-International Practice, Steptoe & Johnson; Hon. Arun Kumar, Chairman & CEO, KPMG India; Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow, AEI; Thomas Breckenridge, Vice President of Global Sales, Boeing Company; Hon. Raymond Vickery, Non-resident Senior Associate, Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS, Counsel, Hogan Lovells; Vikram Singh, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress. Moderators: Richard M. Rossow, Senior Adviser & Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS; Dr. Kathleen H. Hicks, Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, Director, International Security Program, CSIS.

NPC HEADLINERS LUNCHEON WITH SECRETARY OF COMMERCE WILBUR ROSS. 5/14, 12:30-2:00pm, Lunch, National Press Club. Speaker: Wilbur Ross, 39th Secretary of Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce.

OUR TIME HAS COME: HOW INDIA IS MAKING ITS PLACE IN THE WORLD. 5/14, 6:00-7:30pm, Reception. Sponsor: Women’s Foreign Policy Group. Author: Alyssa Ayres, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations. Moderator: Elisabeth Bumiller, Washington Bureau Chief, New York Times.

U.S POLICY TOWARD IRAN: STRATEGIC OPTIONS. 5/14, 10:00-11:30am. Sponsor: Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). Speakers: Amb. Eric Edelman, Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, Co-Chair, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Jake Sullivan, Former Director of Policy Planning, U.S. State Department, Former National Security Advisor to the Vice President, Co-Chair, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Amb. James Jeffrey, Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Mary Beth Long, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Denise Natali, Director, Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Blaise Misztal, Director of National Security, BPC. Moderator: Arshad Mohammed, Diplomatic Correspondent, Reuters.

THE FALLOUT FROM TRUMP’S DECISION ON THE IRAN DEAL. 5/14, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. Speakers: Axel Hellman, Policy Fellow, European Leadership Network; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security; Ali Vaez, Director, Iran Project, International Crisis Group; David Mortlock, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council. Moderator: Barbara Slavin, Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. 

Thursday, May 10, 2018

The Founders Worried too, About Foreign Meddling in Our Elections

Madison (L) Jefferson (R)
by Jeanne Abrams, professor at the University Libraries at the University of Denver and author of the book, First Ladies of the Republic: Martha Washington, Abigail Adams, and Dolley Madison and the Creation of an Iconic American Role (New York University Press, 2018).
History News Network, 5/6/18.

In December of 1787, leading American statesmen Thomas Jefferson and John Adams were both stationed in Europe on behalf of their fledgling country. Adams had been named the first U.S. minister to Great Britain in February, 1785 and Thomas Jefferson served as minister to France from 1785 to 1789. Comrades during the Revolutionary War, during their time in Europe, the two men were still good friends, although when they later returned to the United States their relationship fractured over radically different political outlooks. But when the Adamses left France after a residence of only eight months for another three years in England, John’s wife, future First Lady Abigail Adams, called Jefferson “one of the choicest ones of the earth.”

In 1787, the new United States Constitution was being debated in Philadelphia, and both Jefferson and Adams followed developments closely from afar. In an oft- quoted letter written by Adams to Jefferson on December 6, 1787, Adams referred to the “Project of the new Constitution,” and the various objections both men had to the evolving document. Adams famously declared “You are afraid of the one – I, of the few.” Jefferson detested the institution of monarchy and was concerned that the installation of a powerful executive would overturn the principles of the American Revolution and create a quasi-monarchy. Adams, on the other hand, feared the creation of an elite aristocracy in the form of senators. Because of his concern about such a possible oligarchy, Adams therefore maintained “I would have given more power to the President and less to the Senate,” and he advocated for a strong executive.

What is more surprising, and for the most part overlooked, about Adams’s letter is his discussion of the potential danger of foreign meddling in American elections, a subject that is especially timely today. “You are apprehensive of foreign Interference, Intrigue, and Influence,” Adams wrote. “So am I, - But, as often as Elections happen, the danger of foreign Influence recurs.” To counteract that danger, Adams maintained that the less frequently elections occurred, “the danger of foreign influence will be less.” Of course, Adams’s view did not prevail and regular elections and the peaceful transfer of power are still regarded as hallmarks of American democracy.

Once the two men returned in the early national period, radical divisions developed in the United States between the two nascent political parties, the Federalists headed by George Washington and John Adams, and the Republicans led by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. Old alliances were fractured, and the subject of the French Revolution became a pivotal flashpoint. The French Revolution had left a memory of radicalism and bloody terror in the minds of many Americans, heightening disagreements between political factions. Jefferson viewed the event in a largely benign manner as a step toward ousting monarchy and bringing progressive republican ideals of freedom and liberty to the oppressed common people. John and Abigail Adams, on the other hand, were appalled at the violence and chaos that the French Revolution had unleashed, which they viewed as the excesses of unfettered democracy. Later as First Lady, in 1798 Abigail confided to her sister about her fear of French subversion and the specter of French revolutionary “Jacobins,” supported by Jefferson, infiltrating American politics and government. The early camaraderie of the Washingtons and Jefferson also dissolved over political disagreements. A few years after George Washington’s death, the first First Lady, Martha Washington, had come to regard Jefferson’s election to the presidency in 1800 as a tragedy. She told a visitor to Mt. Vernon that “the election of Mr. Jefferson, whom she considered one of the most detestable of mankind, as the greatest misfortune our country has ever experienced.” Certainly not a very tactful way to publicly describe the leader of the country.

The deep schism between the Federalists and Republicans and fear of foreign meddling in elections in the early United States goes back to the dawn of the American republic and make today’s political divisions pale by comparison. Indeed, politics were every bit as divisive and fractious then as they are now. America’s first presidents and even their First Ladies all vocally entered the fray. We should take comfort in the fact that despite that rancorous rhetoric and division, the country survived and thrived. America’s founders exhibited all too human flaws, but they were united by principled convictions and a sincere underlying devotion to the public good. We can only hope a contemporary cadre of American leaders will rise to the occasion and demonstrate a similar measure of dedication.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Monday in Washington, May 7, 2018

AN AIR FORCE OPERATIONS ANALYSIS BRIEF. 5/7, 9:30-10:30am. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute. Speaker: Lt Gen Jerry Harris Jr., USAF, Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategic Plans and Requirements.

THE IMPACT OF DE-RISKING ON NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS AND THEIR BENEFICIARIES IN CONFLICT AREAS. 5/7, 10:00-11:15am. Sponsors: Human Rights Initiative, CSIS; Charity and Security Network; Humanitarian Forum. Speakers: Stuart Gordon, Assistant Professor in Managing Humanitarianism & Program Director, International Development and Humanitarian Emergencies, London School of Economics; Tracey Durner, Senior Analyst, Global Center on Cooperative Security. Moderator: Lana Baydas, Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS.

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WILL THE TRUMP TAX CUTS ACCELERATE OFFSHORING BY U.S. MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS? 5/7, Noon. Sponsor: Economic Policy Institute. Speakers include: Kimberly Clausing, Thormund Miller and Walter Mintz Professor of Economics, Reed College; Rebecca Kysar, Professor of Law, Brooklyn Law School; Chye-Ching Huang, Deputy Director, Federal Tax Policy, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

ON GRAND STRATEGY. 5/7, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: Heritage. Author: John Lewis Gaddis, Robert A. Lovett Professor of History, Founding Director, Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy, Yale University. Moderator: Theodore R. Bromund, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow in Anglo-American Relations, Heritage.


WAR BY OTHER MEANS: RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY, SPURRING CONFLICT. 5/7, 2-3:00pm. Sponsor: United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Speakers: Anne Applebaum, Washington Post columnist, Pulitzer-Prize winning author and Professor of Practice, Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics; William Taylor, Moderator: Executive Vice President, U.S. Institute of Peace. Location: USIP, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. Contact:

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Abe's "diplomatic" accomplishment


As observed by the Shingetsu News Agency
Results: One Year of Moon Diplomacy vs. Six Years of Abe Diplomacy 
Or How was your April 27th?


As reported by Kyodo News

New ‘comfort women’ memorial removed from thoroughfare in Manila under pressure from Japanese Embassy
April 28, 2018

MANILA – A new memorial dedicated to the Philippines “comfort women” forced into Japan’s military brothels before and during World War II was removed Friday night, days after suspicions surfaced that it was being targeted for demolition.

The bronze statue of a blindfolded Filipino woman, erected in December, was removed from Roxas Boulevard in Manila. Workers left behind only debris fenced in by makeshift barriers.

Around two weeks ago, a Department of Public Works and Highways backhoe was seen parked beside the memorial, sparking speculation that it was to be demolished.

Local women’s rights organization Gabriela and cultural group Kaisa Para sa Kaunlaran (Unity for Progress) last Wednesday expressed their opposition to removing it, with both groups vowing to write to the government about the matter.

Government workers in the area Saturday morning said the memorial was removed so that pipes could be laid underground.

According to the Japanese Embassy in Manila, the Philippine government notified it before taking the statue away. The issue of the comfort women, Japan’s euphemism for the girls and women, is a sensitive one for Japan, and the embassy had expressed concerns over the statue, one of many sprouting up in South Korea, the United States and elsewhere to memorialize an episode of history Japan would rather forget.

In January, Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda visited Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to express displeasure over the memorial.

Since then, the Philippine government has been sending mixed messages on whether or not it supports advocacy efforts on behalf of former comfort women.

Duterte said in January that he cannot curtail the freedom of expression demonstrated by the groups who pushed for the statue to be erected. But his Foreign Affairs Secretary, Alan Cayetano, said the Philippines cannot strengthen its relationship with Japan if it keeps inflaming a matter that is considered “settled.”

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Monday in Washington, April 30, 2018

CONVERSATION WITH DP SENATOR HIROE MAKIYAMA. 4/30, 10:30am-Noon. Sponsor: Sasakawa USA,. Speaker: Hiroe Makiyama (Democratic Party), Member of the Japanese House of Councillors. Moderator: Tobias Harris, Fellow for Economy, Trade and Business, Sasakawa; Founder, Japan Political Pulse.

END OF AN ERA: HOW CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN REVIVAL IS UNDERMINING ITS RISE. 4/30, 11:00-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: International and Comparative Law Program and the Research Initiative on Multinational States at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, GW. Speaker: Author, Carl Minzner, Professor of Law, Fordham University.

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SILENT INVASION: THE PRC'S INTERFERENCE OPERATIONS IN AUSTRALIA. 4/30, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). Author: Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics, Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.

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NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMACY IN THE ERA OF SUMMITS. 4/30, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsors: KEIA; Sasakawa USA. Speakers: Jung Park, Senior Fellow, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings; Taisuke Mibae, Visiting Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center, Atlantic Council; Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow, Korea Studies, Director, Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations; Mark Tokola, Vice President, KEIA; James Zumwalt, CEO, Sasakawa USA. Moderator: Troy Stangarone, Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade, KEIA.

SPACE 2.0: U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND POLICY IN THE NEW SPACE ERA. 4/30, Noon-3:00pm, Lunch. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Dr. Scott Pace, Executive Director, National Space Council; Hon. Robert McDowell, Former Commissioner, Federal Communications Commission, Partner, Cooley, LLP; Earl Comstock, Director, Office of Policy and Strategic Planning, U.S. Department of Commerce; Dr. Michael Mineiro, Staff Director & Senior Counsel, House Science Committee, Space Subcommittee, U.S. House of Representatives; Kelvin Coleman, Acting Associate Administrator, Commercial Space Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Moderator: Dr. Pierre de Vries, Co-Director, Spectrum Policy Initiative, Silicon Flatirons Center.

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LOSING THE HEARTS AND MINDS: AMERICAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION DURING THE COLD WAR. 4/30, 1:30-2:00pm. Sponsor: Project on Military and Diplomatic History, CSIS. Author, Dr. Matthew Shannon, Assistant Professor, Emory and Henry College. Moderator: Mark F. Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS.

THE KOREAN PENINSULA ISSUES AND US NATIONAL SECURITY. 4/30, 1:00-5:30pm. Sponsor: Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS). Speaker: Oriana Skylar Mastro, Fellow, ICAS, Assistant Professor of Security Studies, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Rachel Oswald, Foreign Policy Reporter, Congressional Quarterly; Synja P Kim, Fellow, President & Chairman, ICAS. Moderator: Sang Joo Kim, Senior Fellow & Executive Vice President, ICAS.

END OF AN ERA: HOW CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN REVIVAL IS UNDERMINING ITS RISE. 4/30, 1:30-3:00pm. Sponsor: Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS. Author: Carl Minzner, Professor of Law, Fordham University. Moderator: Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTER-KOREA SUMMIT: VIEWS FROM SOUTH KOREA, U.S., AND CHINA. 4/30, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Heung-Kyu Kim, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Ajou University, Researcher, Georgetown University; Ren Xiao, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University; Keith Luse, Executive Director, National Committee on North Korea. Moderator: Yun Sun, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson.

COMBATING TERRORISM: NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL LESSONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND. 4/30, 2:00-4:00pm. Sponsors: Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies; International Center for Terrorism Studies, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Inter-University Center for Legal Studies, International law Institute; Center for National Security Law, University of Virginia School of Law. Speakers: Michael S. Swetnam, CEO & Chairman, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Hon. Guy Roberts, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs; Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland, College Park, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy, Former Senior Counselor to the United States Representative to the United Nations; Marvin Kalb, Edward R. Murrow Professor Emeritus, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Senior Advisor, Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings; Gen. Alfred Gray (ret.), USMC, 29th Commandant of the United States Marine Corps, Senior Fellow & Chairman of the Board of Regents, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Moderator: Yonah Alexander, Director, Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.

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PROMOTING U.S.-INDIA SPACE COOPERATION. 4/30, 3:00-5:30pm, Reception. Sponsor: U.S.-India Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Speakers: Kumar Abhijeet, Assistant Professor, National Law School of India University; Dr. Jossia Joseph, Scientist D, National Institute of Ocean Technology; Srinivasa Raghotham, Assistant Editor, Deccan Herald; Dr. Krishnan Sundara Rajan, Associate Professor & Head, Lab for Spatial Informatics, International Institute of Information Technology (IIIT-H) Hyderabad; Nandan Kumar Sinha, Professor, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras, Department of Aerospace Engineering.

 DIRECTORATE S: THE CIA AND AMERICA'S SECRET WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN. 4/30, 4:30-6:00pm. Sponsor: Dean's Forum, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University. Author: Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize Winner, Dean & Henry R. Luce Professor of Journalism, Columbia University School of Journalism. Speaker: Shamila Chaudhary, Senior South Asia Fellow, New America, Senior Advisor to Dean Vali Nasr, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University.