Remembering American POWs killed at Hiroshima

May 28th, 2018. MEMORIAL DAY POW PLAQUE UNVEILING IN LOWELL, MA HONORING AMERICAN POWS OF JAPAN. Centralville Veterans dedicate a new plaque honoring the 12 Americans killed in and from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, August 6, 1945. The new memorial joins the nine others in the park, which collectively display the names of over 3,000 service members. Special guests will be Mr. and Mrs. Shigeaki Mori from Japan, the subject of the documentary film, Paper Lanterns, that recounts Mr. Mori’s 35-year quest to identify the American POW aviators who perished and to notify their families. Mr. Mori was the Hiroshima survivor that President Barack Obama hugged at his speech in Hiroshima. The families and friends of two of the POWs he identified--Normand Brissette, U.S. Navy and Ralph Neal, USAAC--will be at the ceremony. The event will begin at 9:00AM. Location: Centralville Memorial Park, 700 Aiken Street, Lowell, MA 01850, at the intersection of Aiken and Ennell Streets, at the foot of Aiken Bridge, MAP  
PRESS RELEASE

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/24, 7:00–9:00pm, San Francisco, CA. Sponsor: Asian Art Museum. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Asian Art Museum, Samsung Hall, 200 Larkin Street.

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/25, 6:00–7:30pm, Mountain View, CA. Sponsor: Community School of Music and Arts. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Community School of Music and Arts, 230 San Antonio Circle.

PAPER LANTERNS: FILM SCREENING. 5/30, 7:30–9:15pm, Boston, MA. Sponsor: Museum of Fine Arts, Boston. Speakers: The film’s subject, Mr. Shigeaki Mori, a Japanese historian and atomic bomb survivor, who spent 35 years finding the families of 12 American POWs who perished during the Hiroshima bombing. Location: Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, Harry and Mildred Remis Auditorium (Auditorium 161), Avenue of the Arts, 465 Huntington Avenue.

Monday in Washington, May 21, 2018

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will deliver remarks on After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy” at The Heritage Foundation at 9:00am. It will be broadcast live on both the Heritage and State Department Websites.“

AFTER ISIS, WILL IRAQ’S ELECTIONS BE THE NEXT STEP TO STABILITY? 5/21, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: USIP. Speakers: Joshua Johnson, Moderator, Host, NPR's 1A; Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar, U.S.-Middle East Security and Foreign Policies, AEI; Denise Natali, Director, Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University; Sarhang Hamasaeed, Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace. 

MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE IRAN DEAL: FROM ESCALATION TO CONFLAGRATION? 5/21, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Nicholas Blanford, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, Beirut Correspondent, Christian Science Monitor; Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser on Syria, US Institute of Peace, Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, Middle East Bureau, US Agency for International Development;  Faysal Itani, Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council.

Will Greater Gender Equity Bring Higher Productivity?

Japan's Cabinet on May 18th approved a resolution to encourage gender equality in politics. At the same time, however, the Cabinet issued a cabinet decision saying that sexual harassment is not a crime. The ruling said "under the current legal system, 'criminal sexual harassment' does not exist." This essentially makes Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso's similar statement now government policy. It should be noted that the Kono Statement, the 1993 putative apology to the Comfort Women for sex slavery does not have the official imprimatur of a cabinet decision.

To address much of Japan's gender inequality, the Diet is deliberating laws to reform working life. Commenting on this is APP Board Member and Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Steven K. Vogel in the Toyo Keizai, May 17,2018

As the Diet continues deliberation on the detailed provisions of the Work Style Reform bill, it is easy to miss the bigger picture. But Japan has a unique opportunity to remedy some of the worst flaws of its employment system, such as blatant gender discrimination, while boosting productivity at the same time.

There is no guarantee that Japan will achieve such a “win-win” outcome, but that is all the more reason for Japan’s political leaders, ministry officials, company managers, union representatives, workers and citizens to keep their eye on the prize.

Japan is unique among the advanced industrial countries in the degree to which its government is now focused on labor market issues. The Abe administration has declared this to be the “Work Style Reform Diet,” and it has also launched a major effort to rethink education and training, the so-called “human resources revolution” (hitozukuri kakumei).

So in Japan the questions are not ones of political will, but of policy substance and workplace-level implementation. Can the government get it right? And will employers follow through?

The transition from labor surplus to labor shortage presents the perfect opportunity to address the systemic gender discrimination embedded in Japan’s starkly tiered employment system. The trend has become unmistakable over the past few years, as unemployment dipped to 2.5 percent and the job offers to applicants ratio surged to 1.6:1 as of March this year.

The government and industry have responded by shifting their goals from the zero-sum enterprise of shedding workers and lowering labor costs toward the positive-sum mission of increasing female workforce participation and enhancing labor productivity.

Just consider this: Japan now has a conservative ruling party that is promoting social democratic goals like equal pay for equal work and lower working hours. True, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is not advocating these measures for the same reasons as the left opposition, and it will not implement them in the same way. It is more concerned about increasing the labor force, enhancing productivity, stimulating consumption, and boosting the birth rate than in promoting equal rights per se.

Nonetheless, the LDP and the opposition parties agree on the most important elements of labor reform. As one labor union representative lamented to me: “The LDP leaders are clever. They want to win elections. So they take the best ideas from the opposition and they make them their own.”

This is actually a classic LDP strategy. LDP leaders adopted opposition proposals for stronger environmental protection and higher social welfare spending in the 1970s. Prime Minister Koizumi assumed the opposition’s critique of his own party as clientelistic and corrupt in the 2000s. And now Prime Minister Abe has embraced the empowerment of women and the improvement of working life.
Gender Equality as a “Win-Win” Proposition

Promoting gender equality and improving worker welfare should encourage more women to join the workforce and enhance labor productivity overall. Companies will be able to recruit more women by providing a better work environment, including day care facilities, child and elder care leave, more limited working hours, and greater opportunities for advancement.

Greater gender equality should increase productivity for the simple reason that discrimination means that companies are under-utilizing a key pool of talent. Hitotsubashi University Economist Kyoji Fukao notes that Japan ranks at the top among rich countries in literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving, yet it stands out in its low usage of the skills of females at work.

And Isamu Yamamoto of Keio University finds that Japanese listed firms with higher shares of female regular workers are more profitable. In pursuing gender equality, moreover, the government will also address other pressing social problems, including childcare and elder care, economic inequality, and the lack of flexibility in career choices.

The equal pay for equal work provisions in the reform bill are critical to addressing the gender gap. Of course, Japan formally committed to gender equality with the Equal Employment Opportunity Law in 1986.

But companies have preserved discrimination in practice via separate career tracks: a permanent track (seiki), primarily for men, and a “temporary” track (hiseiki), primarily for women. They have justified differences in pay, benefits, and job security on the basis of different levels of “constraint” (kousokusei).

That is, the permanent workers were obligated to accept overtime hours, geographical transfers, and new job assignments whereas the temporary workers were not. The current bill and implementation plans begin to address this problem by prohibiting the most blatantly unjustifiable discrepancies in compensation.

For example, employers will not be able to offer different commuter allowances for regular workers versus non-regular workers, because they cannot justify this difference by the different levels of obligation to accept assignments in the two categories.

Evaluating the Work Style Reforms
I have been struck in my field research on this topic that Japanese government officials are fully aware that simply declaring gender equity and diversity as a goal will not suffice. They are consciously designing mechanisms to monitor progress at the firm level, to reward companies that comply and punish those that do not.

On gender equity, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare devised a star (eruboshi) system to recognize companies for their effort, with three levels of achievement based on five criteria: female hiring, job tenure, work style (including working hours), share of executives, and multiplicity of career courses.

It is easy to make fun of this point system, given that it lacks an enforcement mechanism. But at least it represents a large-scale effort to influence practices at the workplace level, which is the ultimate goal, after all.

On equal pay for equal work, ministry officials took the unusual approach of issuing detailed guidelines before passing the reform law. They cannot impose penalties for non-compliance, but they can issue administrative guidance (gyousei shidou). And companies will have an incentive to comply with the guidelines because judges might refer to them in the case of disputes.

There are some real signs of progress, albeit modest ones. Female workforce participation has increased from 63.4% in 2012 to 68.2% in 2016. The female share of corporate executives increased steadily from a low base from 2012 to 2016, from 14.4% to 18.6% for subsection chief (kakarichō), from 7.9% to 10.3% for section chief (kachō), and from 4.9% to 6.6% for department chief (buchō), according to the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare.

An assessment of work style reform boils down to the proverbial glass half empty versus glass half full. Given the glacial pace of Japan’s shift toward gender equity in the workplace over the past 30 years, and the bias toward employer-friendly reforms over the past 20 years, I view the current reform efforts as a welcome change, both in pace and direction.

Those frustrated by the limitations of the current bill should direct their efforts to ensuring that the government enforces the provisions and that industry changes its practices accordingly. And then they should aim yet higher in the next stage of reform.

Monday in Washington, May 14, 2018

XI'S THREE BATTLES: CHINA'S CREDIT RISKS. 5/14, 9:30-11:00am. Sponsor: Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS. Speakers: Andrew Polk, founding partner of Trivium/China, a Beijing-based advisory firm, and Gene Ma, Chief China Economist at the Institute of International Finance.

THE U.S.-CHINA DIGITAL ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITY, COMPROMISE AND PERIL. 5/14, 10:00-11:30. Sponsor: Kissinger Institute, Wilson Center. Speakers: Wenhong Chen, Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin Visiting Fellow, East-West Center; Aynne Kokas, Fellow, Assistant Professor of Media Studies, University of Virginia.

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN CHINA. 5/14, 2:30-4:00pm. Sponsor: Asia Program, Carnegie. Author: Mark Hibbs, Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie. Speaker: Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS. Moderator: James Acton, Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program, Senior Fellow, Carnegie.

PSYCHOLOGY OF A SUPERPOWER: SECURITY AND DOMINANCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY. 5/14, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Cato. Speakers: author, Christopher J. Fettweis, Associate Professor of Political Science, Tulane University​; Keir A. Lieber, Director, Center for Security Studies and Security Studies Program,​ Georgetown University and Associate Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School ​of Foreign Service​; Moderated by John Mueller, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute.

HOW TO TALK TO NORTH KOREA. 5/14, 10:00-11:00am. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Suzanne DiMaggio, Director & Senior Fellow, New America; Robert L. Gallucci, Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy, Georgetown University; Christopher Hill, Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement, Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy, University of Denver; Daniel Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute. Moderator: Mark Landler, White House Correspondent, New York Times.

UNDERSTANDING SECESSIONIST STRUGGLE IN SOUTH ASIA. 5/14, 11:00am-12:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Asia Program, Wilson Center. Speaker: Dr. Ahsan Butt, Assistant Professor, George Mason University, Author, Succession and Security: Explaining State Strategy Against Separatists.

VERIFIED DENUCLEARIZATION OF NORTH KOREA: MECHANICS AND PROSPECTS. 5/14, Noon-2:00pm. Sponsor: Institute for Science and International Security and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Speakers: David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security and Houston Wood, University of Virginia.

U.S. & INDIA: FROM ESTRANGED DEMOCRACIES TO NATURAL ALLIES. 5/14, 1:00-5:00pm. Sponsor: Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS. Speakers: Dr. John J. Hamre, President & CEO, CSIS; Amb. Navtej Sarna, Ambassador of India to the United States; Amb. Frank Wisner, Counsel, Squire Patton Boggs; Amb. Susan Esserman, Chair-International Practice, Steptoe & Johnson; Hon. Arun Kumar, Chairman & CEO, KPMG India; Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow, AEI; Thomas Breckenridge, Vice President of Global Sales, Boeing Company; Hon. Raymond Vickery, Non-resident Senior Associate, Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS, Counsel, Hogan Lovells; Vikram Singh, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress. Moderators: Richard M. Rossow, Senior Adviser & Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies, CSIS; Dr. Kathleen H. Hicks, Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, Director, International Security Program, CSIS.

NPC HEADLINERS LUNCHEON WITH SECRETARY OF COMMERCE WILBUR ROSS. 5/14, 12:30-2:00pm, Lunch, National Press Club. Speaker: Wilbur Ross, 39th Secretary of Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce.

OUR TIME HAS COME: HOW INDIA IS MAKING ITS PLACE IN THE WORLD. 5/14, 6:00-7:30pm, Reception. Sponsor: Women’s Foreign Policy Group. Author: Alyssa Ayres, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations. Moderator: Elisabeth Bumiller, Washington Bureau Chief, New York Times.

U.S POLICY TOWARD IRAN: STRATEGIC OPTIONS. 5/14, 10:00-11:30am. Sponsor: Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). Speakers: Amb. Eric Edelman, Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, Co-Chair, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Jake Sullivan, Former Director of Policy Planning, U.S. State Department, Former National Security Advisor to the Vice President, Co-Chair, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Amb. James Jeffrey, Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Mary Beth Long, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Denise Natali, Director, Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, Member, Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East, BPC; Blaise Misztal, Director of National Security, BPC. Moderator: Arshad Mohammed, Diplomatic Correspondent, Reuters.

THE FALLOUT FROM TRUMP’S DECISION ON THE IRAN DEAL. 5/14, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. Speakers: Axel Hellman, Policy Fellow, European Leadership Network; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security; Ali Vaez, Director, Iran Project, International Crisis Group; David Mortlock, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council. Moderator: Barbara Slavin, Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. 

The Founders Worried too, About Foreign Meddling in Our Elections

Madison (L) Jefferson (R)

by Jeanne Abrams, professor at the University Libraries at the University of Denver and author of the book, First Ladies of the Republic: Martha Washington, Abigail Adams, and Dolley Madison and the Creation of an Iconic American Role (New York University Press, 2018).

History News Network, 5/6/18.

In December of 1787, leading American statesmen Thomas Jefferson and John Adams were both stationed in Europe on behalf of their fledgling country. Adams had been named the first U.S. minister to Great Britain in February, 1785 and Thomas Jefferson served as minister to France from 1785 to 1789. Comrades during the Revolutionary War, during their time in Europe, the two men were still good friends, although when they later returned to the United States their relationship fractured over radically different political outlooks. But when the Adamses left France after a residence of only eight months for another three years in England, John’s wife, future First Lady Abigail Adams, called Jefferson “one of the choicest ones of the earth.”

In 1787, the new United States Constitution was being debated in Philadelphia, and both Jefferson and Adams followed developments closely from afar. In an oft- quoted letter written by Adams to Jefferson on December 6, 1787, Adams referred to the “Project of the new Constitution,” and the various objections both men had to the evolving document. Adams famously declared “You are afraid of the one – I, of the few.” Jefferson detested the institution of monarchy and was concerned that the installation of a powerful executive would overturn the principles of the American Revolution and create a quasi-monarchy. Adams, on the other hand, feared the creation of an elite aristocracy in the form of senators. Because of his concern about such a possible oligarchy, Adams therefore maintained “I would have given more power to the President and less to the Senate,” and he advocated for a strong executive.

What is more surprising, and for the most part overlooked, about Adams’s letter is his discussion of the potential danger of foreign meddling in American elections, a subject that is especially timely today. “You are apprehensive of foreign Interference, Intrigue, and Influence,” Adams wrote. “So am I, - But, as often as Elections happen, the danger of foreign Influence recurs.” To counteract that danger, Adams maintained that the less frequently elections occurred, “the danger of foreign influence will be less.” Of course, Adams’s view did not prevail and regular elections and the peaceful transfer of power are still regarded as hallmarks of American democracy.

Once the two men returned in the early national period, radical divisions developed in the United States between the two nascent political parties, the Federalists headed by George Washington and John Adams, and the Republicans led by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. Old alliances were fractured, and the subject of the French Revolution became a pivotal flashpoint. The French Revolution had left a memory of radicalism and bloody terror in the minds of many Americans, heightening disagreements between political factions. Jefferson viewed the event in a largely benign manner as a step toward ousting monarchy and bringing progressive republican ideals of freedom and liberty to the oppressed common people. John and Abigail Adams, on the other hand, were appalled at the violence and chaos that the French Revolution had unleashed, which they viewed as the excesses of unfettered democracy. Later as First Lady, in 1798 Abigail confided to her sister about her fear of French subversion and the specter of French revolutionary “Jacobins,” supported by Jefferson, infiltrating American politics and government. The early camaraderie of the Washingtons and Jefferson also dissolved over political disagreements. A few years after George Washington’s death, the first First Lady, Martha Washington, had come to regard Jefferson’s election to the presidency in 1800 as a tragedy. She told a visitor to Mt. Vernon that “the election of Mr. Jefferson, whom she considered one of the most detestable of mankind, as the greatest misfortune our country has ever experienced.” Certainly not a very tactful way to publicly describe the leader of the country.

The deep schism between the Federalists and Republicans and fear of foreign meddling in elections in the early United States goes back to the dawn of the American republic and make today’s political divisions pale by comparison. Indeed, politics were every bit as divisive and fractious then as they are now. America’s first presidents and even their First Ladies all vocally entered the fray. We should take comfort in the fact that despite that rancorous rhetoric and division, the country survived and thrived. America’s founders exhibited all too human flaws, but they were united by principled convictions and a sincere underlying devotion to the public good. We can only hope a contemporary cadre of American leaders will rise to the occasion and demonstrate a similar measure of dedication.

Monday in Washington, May 7, 2018

AN AIR FORCE OPERATIONS ANALYSIS BRIEF. 5/7, 9:30-10:30am. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute. Speaker: Lt Gen Jerry Harris Jr., USAF, Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategic Plans and Requirements.

THE IMPACT OF DE-RISKING ON NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS AND THEIR BENEFICIARIES IN CONFLICT AREAS. 5/7, 10:00-11:15am. Sponsors: Human Rights Initiative, CSIS; Charity and Security Network; Humanitarian Forum. Speakers: Stuart Gordon, Assistant Professor in Managing Humanitarianism & Program Director, International Development and Humanitarian Emergencies, London School of Economics; Tracey Durner, Senior Analyst, Global Center on Cooperative Security. Moderator: Lana Baydas, Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS.

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WILL THE TRUMP TAX CUTS ACCELERATE OFFSHORING BY U.S. MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS? 5/7, Noon. Sponsor: Economic Policy Institute. Speakers include: Kimberly Clausing, Thormund Miller and Walter Mintz Professor of Economics, Reed College; Rebecca Kysar, Professor of Law, Brooklyn Law School; Chye-Ching Huang, Deputy Director, Federal Tax Policy, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

ON GRAND STRATEGY. 5/7, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: Heritage. Author: John Lewis Gaddis, Robert A. Lovett Professor of History, Founding Director, Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy, Yale University. Moderator: Theodore R. Bromund, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow in Anglo-American Relations, Heritage.


WAR BY OTHER MEANS: RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY, SPURRING CONFLICT. 5/7, 2-3:00pm. Sponsor: United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Speakers: Anne Applebaum, Washington Post columnist, Pulitzer-Prize winning author and Professor of Practice, Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics; William Taylor, Moderator: Executive Vice President, U.S. Institute of Peace. Location: USIP, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. Contact:

Abe's "diplomatic" accomplishment

As observed by the Shingetsu News Agency
Results: One Year of Moon Diplomacy vs. Six Years of Abe Diplomacy 
Or How was your April 27th?

As reported by Kyodo News

New ‘comfort women’ memorial removed from thoroughfare in Manila under pressure from Japanese Embassy
April 28, 2018

MANILA – A new memorial dedicated to the Philippines “comfort women” forced into Japan’s military brothels before and during World War II was removed Friday night, days after suspicions surfaced that it was being targeted for demolition.

The bronze statue of a blindfolded Filipino woman, erected in December, was removed from Roxas Boulevard in Manila. Workers left behind only debris fenced in by makeshift barriers.

Around two weeks ago, a Department of Public Works and Highways backhoe was seen parked beside the memorial, sparking speculation that it was to be demolished.

Local women’s rights organization Gabriela and cultural group Kaisa Para sa Kaunlaran (Unity for Progress) last Wednesday expressed their opposition to removing it, with both groups vowing to write to the government about the matter.

Government workers in the area Saturday morning said the memorial was removed so that pipes could be laid underground.

According to the Japanese Embassy in Manila, the Philippine government notified it before taking the statue away. The issue of the comfort women, Japan’s euphemism for the girls and women, is a sensitive one for Japan, and the embassy had expressed concerns over the statue, one of many sprouting up in South Korea, the United States and elsewhere to memorialize an episode of history Japan would rather forget.

In January, Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Seiko Noda visited Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to express displeasure over the memorial.

Since then, the Philippine government has been sending mixed messages on whether or not it supports advocacy efforts on behalf of former comfort women.

Duterte said in January that he cannot curtail the freedom of expression demonstrated by the groups who pushed for the statue to be erected. But his Foreign Affairs Secretary, Alan Cayetano, said the Philippines cannot strengthen its relationship with Japan if it keeps inflaming a matter that is considered “settled.”

Monday in Washington, April 30, 2018

CONVERSATION WITH DP SENATOR HIROE MAKIYAMA. 4/30, 10:30am-Noon. Sponsor: Sasakawa USA,. Speaker: Hiroe Makiyama (Democratic Party), Member of the Japanese House of Councillors. Moderator: Tobias Harris, Fellow for Economy, Trade and Business, Sasakawa; Founder, Japan Political Pulse.

END OF AN ERA: HOW CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN REVIVAL IS UNDERMINING ITS RISE. 4/30, 11:00-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: International and Comparative Law Program and the Research Initiative on Multinational States at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, GW. Speaker: Author, Carl Minzner, Professor of Law, Fordham University.

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SILENT INVASION: THE PRC'S INTERFERENCE OPERATIONS IN AUSTRALIA. 4/30, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). Author: Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics, Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.

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NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMACY IN THE ERA OF SUMMITS. 4/30, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsors: KEIA; Sasakawa USA. Speakers: Jung Park, Senior Fellow, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings; Taisuke Mibae, Visiting Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center, Atlantic Council; Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow, Korea Studies, Director, Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations; Mark Tokola, Vice President, KEIA; James Zumwalt, CEO, Sasakawa USA. Moderator: Troy Stangarone, Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade, KEIA.

SPACE 2.0: U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND POLICY IN THE NEW SPACE ERA. 4/30, Noon-3:00pm, Lunch. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Dr. Scott Pace, Executive Director, National Space Council; Hon. Robert McDowell, Former Commissioner, Federal Communications Commission, Partner, Cooley, LLP; Earl Comstock, Director, Office of Policy and Strategic Planning, U.S. Department of Commerce; Dr. Michael Mineiro, Staff Director & Senior Counsel, House Science Committee, Space Subcommittee, U.S. House of Representatives; Kelvin Coleman, Acting Associate Administrator, Commercial Space Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Moderator: Dr. Pierre de Vries, Co-Director, Spectrum Policy Initiative, Silicon Flatirons Center.

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LOSING THE HEARTS AND MINDS: AMERICAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION DURING THE COLD WAR. 4/30, 1:30-2:00pm. Sponsor: Project on Military and Diplomatic History, CSIS. Author, Dr. Matthew Shannon, Assistant Professor, Emory and Henry College. Moderator: Mark F. Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS.

THE KOREAN PENINSULA ISSUES AND US NATIONAL SECURITY. 4/30, 1:00-5:30pm. Sponsor: Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS). Speaker: Oriana Skylar Mastro, Fellow, ICAS, Assistant Professor of Security Studies, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Rachel Oswald, Foreign Policy Reporter, Congressional Quarterly; Synja P Kim, Fellow, President & Chairman, ICAS. Moderator: Sang Joo Kim, Senior Fellow & Executive Vice President, ICAS.

END OF AN ERA: HOW CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN REVIVAL IS UNDERMINING ITS RISE. 4/30, 1:30-3:00pm. Sponsor: Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS. Author: Carl Minzner, Professor of Law, Fordham University. Moderator: Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTER-KOREA SUMMIT: VIEWS FROM SOUTH KOREA, U.S., AND CHINA. 4/30, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Heung-Kyu Kim, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Ajou University, Researcher, Georgetown University; Ren Xiao, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University; Keith Luse, Executive Director, National Committee on North Korea. Moderator: Yun Sun, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson.

COMBATING TERRORISM: NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL LESSONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND. 4/30, 2:00-4:00pm. Sponsors: Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies; International Center for Terrorism Studies, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Inter-University Center for Legal Studies, International law Institute; Center for National Security Law, University of Virginia School of Law. Speakers: Michael S. Swetnam, CEO & Chairman, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Hon. Guy Roberts, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs; Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland, College Park, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy, Former Senior Counselor to the United States Representative to the United Nations; Marvin Kalb, Edward R. Murrow Professor Emeritus, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Senior Advisor, Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings; Gen. Alfred Gray (ret.), USMC, 29th Commandant of the United States Marine Corps, Senior Fellow & Chairman of the Board of Regents, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Moderator: Yonah Alexander, Director, Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies, Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.

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PROMOTING U.S.-INDIA SPACE COOPERATION. 4/30, 3:00-5:30pm, Reception. Sponsor: U.S.-India Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Speakers: Kumar Abhijeet, Assistant Professor, National Law School of India University; Dr. Jossia Joseph, Scientist D, National Institute of Ocean Technology; Srinivasa Raghotham, Assistant Editor, Deccan Herald; Dr. Krishnan Sundara Rajan, Associate Professor & Head, Lab for Spatial Informatics, International Institute of Information Technology (IIIT-H) Hyderabad; Nandan Kumar Sinha, Professor, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras, Department of Aerospace Engineering.

 DIRECTORATE S: THE CIA AND AMERICA'S SECRET WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN. 4/30, 4:30-6:00pm. Sponsor: Dean's Forum, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University. Author: Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize Winner, Dean & Henry R. Luce Professor of Journalism, Columbia University School of Journalism. Speaker: Shamila Chaudhary, Senior South Asia Fellow, New America, Senior Advisor to Dean Vali Nasr, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University.

Monday in Washington, April 23, 2018

CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE REVISITED. 4/23, 11:00am-1:00pm, Webcast. Sponsor: PIIE. Speakers: Ed Balls, Research Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government, Harvard University; Anna Stansbury, PhD Scholar, Multidisciplinary Program in Inequality and Social Policy, Harvard University; Hon. Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University; Adam S. Posen, President, PIIE.

ADVOCACY FOR SOUTH KOREA’S INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ESCAPE FROM DEVELOPMENTALISM AND ASIANIZATION OF NORDIC DEVELOPMENT AID WITH TAEKYOON KIM. 4/23, 3:00-5:00pm. Sponsor: Institute for Korean Studies, Elliott School, GWU. Speaker: Dr. Taekyoon Kim, Associate Professor of International Development, Former Associate Dean for International Affairs, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University.

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT: SMART INVESTING FOR GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY. 4/23, 4:00-5:00pm. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Gilbert F. Houngbo, President, International Fund for Agricultural Development; Karen Brooks, Director, Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, International Food Policy Research Institute; Julie Howard, Senior Adviser, Global Food Security Project, CSIS, Senior Adviser to the Associate Provost, Dean for International Studies and Programs, Michigan State University. Moderator: Johannes F. Linn, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings.

Monday in Washington, April 16, 2018

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COMEY WEEK IN WASHINGTON

BIG IS BEAUTIFUL: DEBUNKING THE MYTH OF SMALL BUSINESS. 4/16, 9:00-10:30am. Sponsor: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). Authors: Robert D. Atkinson, President, ITIF; Michael Lind, Visiting Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas. Moderator: Edward Luce, Washington Commentator, Financial Times.

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ALLIED AEROSPACE POWER. 4/16, 9:30-11:00am, Arlington, VA. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute. Speakers: Gen. David Goldfein, U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff; ACM. Stephen Hillier, Royal Air Force Chief of the Air Staff.

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REPUBLIC IN PERIL: AMERICAN EMPIRE AND THE LIBERAL TRADITION. 4/16, 11:00am-12:30pm, Lunch, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Cato. Author: David C. Hendrickson, Professor of Political Science, Colorado College. Speaker: Michael Mandelbaum, Professor Emeritus, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University. Moderator: John Mueller, Senior Fellow, Cato.  

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SOUTH ASIA'S DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CHINA-INDIA RIVALRY. 4/16, 12:30-2:00pm, Lunch, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Sasakawa USA. Speaker: Keiichiro Nakazawa, Director General, South Asia Department, Japan International Cooperation Agency. Moderator: Amb. James Zumwalt, CEO, Sasakawa USA.

ATAMBAYEV RETURNS: WHAT NEXT FOR KYRGYZSTAN? 4/16, 2:00-3:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS. Speaker: Venera Djumataeva, Director, Kyrgyz Service, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Moderator: Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director & Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS.

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT IN CONVERSATION WITH JEFFREY GOLDBERG. 4/16, 7:00pm, Washington, DC. Sponsors: The Atlantic; Politics and Prose Bookstore; Sixth & I. Speakers: Madeleine Albright, Former US Secretary of State, author Fascism: A Warning; Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor-in-Chief, The Atlantic.

Can Abe stop the Trump-Kim Summit?

Shut out of North Korea summit talks, Shinzo Abe may move to shut them down
By Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University

South China Morning Post, 15 April 2018

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is alarmed by diplomatic developments related to the denuclearisation of North Korea and is desperate to get involved in the talks so he can sabotage them. Whatever happened to regime change? From Abe’s perspective, treating Kim Jong-un as an equal is rewarding bad behaviour in ways that might imperil Japan’s security. He might find support for his hardline stance from John Bolton, President Donald Trump’s new national security adviser, who has advocated attacking North Korea.

But Trump began his presidency by pulling the plug on the Trans-Pacific Partnership anyway, sparking concerns that Trump’s “America first” doctrine would cede power and influence to China in Asia and spark trade wars. Yet, on security, Abe got much of what he wanted, a US leader who would stand up to China and North Korea, and endorse Japan’s concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

But subsequent setbacks for Abe’s personal diplomacy with Trump underscore the risks of relying on an erratic and unreliable leader. First, Trump took aim at China by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that hurt its closest allies more than Beijing. Abe pleaded for an exemption to no avail, but is hoping he can convince Trump to relent when they meet in person.

But it was Trump’s abrupt volte face regarding talks with North Korea that left Abe chagrined and isolated. He was comprehensively outmanoeuvred and upstaged by South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s diplomacy and was marginalised by the summitry of the North Korean leader, who first met South Korean envoys, then China’s President Xi Jinping, and plans to meet Moon on April 27 and then Trump in May or June.

It was a bitter pill for Abe to watch Seoul’s envoys announce to the world from the portico of the White House that Trump had agreed to meet with Kim, after trying so hard to be his Asian interlocutor. Abe had remained steadfast in his hardline anti-dialogue stance and thought he was on the same page as Trump – until he wasn’t.

Abe has remained out of sync, trying to make Japan relevant to a process that he opposes while pushing South Korea and the US to insist on Kim coming clean on the fate of dozens of Japanese kidnapped by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s who remain unaccounted for.

Abe’s political rise is closely associated with being an advocate for these abductees, and it is an important human rights issue, but other actors prioritise averting cataclysm on the Korean peninsula. North Korea has let it be known that it considers the abductee issue resolved and opposes having it on the agenda. Foreign Minister Taro Kono visited Seoul to lobby for South Korean support but came away empty-handed.

Abe’s stance gains no traction with Korean or Chinese counterparts, who wonder if he is more interested in scuttling the talks than making progress on denuclearisation, a replay of the doomed six-party talks (2003-2009) that Japan held hostage to the abduction issue. Abe’s main concern is that the talks might effectively normalise North Korea’s nuclear capability.

Recent changes in the White House convey even more disarray in Team Trump but may bode well for Abe. Trump fired national security adviser H.R. McMaster and secretary of state Rex Tillerson, voices of moderation on North Korea, and picked hardliners Bolton and Mike Pompeo to replace them. They are likely to be more supportive of Abe on abductees and Trump could use the human rights angle to vilify Kim and derail talks.

Abe’s worst nightmare is that the denuclearisation talks drag on inconclusively, with Kim making some concessions but not handing over the keys to the nuclear vault and in some way normalising North Korea as a nuclear power.

Tokyo does not believe that Kim’s charm offensive is aimed at North Korea unilaterally relinquishing its nuclear arsenal and allowing international inspectors to verify compliance by granting them unfettered access. Trump may hope that can be negotiated, but during his pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago next week, Abe will make the case that this is to fundamentally misread the situation.

Japan worries that some quid pro quo may be worked out that requires reciprocal drawn-out steps by the United States and North Korea to relinquish nuclear weapons, and that part of the deal would require the US to remove the nuclear umbrella of extended deterrence that currently applies to South Korea and Japan. Abe hopes to convince Trump that talks are a waste of time, risky due to unrealistic expectations on both sides, and that Kim is untrustworthy. That should not be too hard.

So while Moon’s peace express is steaming out of the station with everyone scrambling to get aboard, Abe wants to push the emergency stop button on this diplomacy. 

In doing so, he offers Trump a useful escape hatch, enabling him to say he tried diplomacy and blame Kim while resuming the fire-and-fury brinkmanship that he and his new advisers are more comfortable with. US Secretary of Defence James Mattis will have his hands full as the remaining adult supervisor to see what this window of opportunity offers.