Sunday, May 10, 2015

Abe Administration moves to intimidate scholars

John Harvard mourns
Academics fail Abe administration on history

By Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies, Temple University Japan
First appeared in The JAPAN TIMES, May 9, 2015

On May 5, in an open letter in support of historians in Japan, an international group of 187 scholars (of which I am one) urged Japan to acknowledge and atone for the forced prostitution that occurred during wartime, stating: “Denying or trivializing” what happened to the “comfort women” is “unacceptable.”

There are many instances of sexual violence in wartime, but the letter, which has already been widely circulated on the Internet and has been the topic of numerous news reports, says, “The ‘comfort women’ system was distinguished by its large scale and systematic management under the military, and by its exploitation of young, poor and vulnerable women in areas colonized or occupied by Japan.”

The scholars note disagreement over how many women were involved, but stress that “large numbers of women were held against their will and subjected to horrific brutality” in what was a brutal and “inhumane system.” The letter goes on to call for further research that is “free from government manipulation, censorship and private intimidation.”

I asked some U.S. academics about their perspectives on government censorship in 21st-century Japan. Thomas Berger, a professor of political science at Boston University and author of the 2012 book “War, Guilt and World Politics after World War II,” had various talks and his participation in an NHK documentary cancelled due to what he believes was a combination of self-censorship and pressure from senior management.

In one publication, partially funded by a government-sponsored NGO, Berger was asked to avoid the comfort women issue. He insisted that it be left in, but it came at a cost.

“I did compromise by not using the term ‘sexual slavery,’” he says, while asserting that would be something he would not agree to now. Taking issue with revisionist views, Berger believes there were tens of thousands of comfort women, including some professional prostitutes, “the majority of whom were coerced in one way or another to become comfort women and who had no possibilities for escape once they reached the front lines,” she says. Moreover, “there was a far larger pattern of sexual abuse by the Japanese Army involving millions of women, some of whom were kidnapped and kept as what we today would call sex slaves.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has long lobbied for a more positive spin on Japan’s past because he thinks that the prevailing narrative unfairly stigmatizes Japan and that it is difficult to nurture pride in youth based on so-called masochistic history. Thus the government is now whitewashing the history taught in Japan’s schools by forcing textbook publishers to hue to new guidelines aimed at imposing patriotic education. As a result, the comfort women have disappeared from all but one of Japan’s middle school textbooks.

Critics point out that the purpose of history is not to nurture pride and that airbrushing history is not the basis for sound education. Furthermore, promoting a propagandized version of history that fails to address the horrors Japan inflicted throughout Asia from 1931-45 leaves students poorly prepared to develop critical thinking skills and engage with others in the region. How can Japan pursue its long-standing goal of internationalization if its students are left in the dark about its past and force-fed a valorizing and exonerating history that tramples on the dignity of Japan’s neighbors? Can this jingoism serve as the basis of what the government envisions as “Super Global Universities”?

Berger’s Japanese government contacts are “frustrated” by the current administration as well. “They think (the Abe administration) is pushing this issue in unproductive and unnecessary ways,” he says. “The campaign to stop the comfort women plaques in the United States seems to be a source of especial concern.”

Berger says some diplomats “see facing up to Japan’s past misdeeds as a vital mission, but feel that they were deeply burned by the Asian Women’s Fund issue and left vulnerable to right-wing criticism.”

(The Asian Women’s Fund was an attempt by Japan in 1995 to provide redress to former comfort women and promote reconciliation, but it failed for various reasons and was dissolved in 2007.)

One prominent right-wing pundit told me in March, “Our hearts ache for the suffering they (the women) endured” and we tried to help them, but “our sincere efforts” were blocked by “North Korean spies that infiltrated” comfort women advocacy groups in Seoul.

The pundit’s comments are an example of the level of delusion that prevails.

As a leading expert on war guilt, Berger is often approached for his perspective because he is known to be fair-minded.

It is crucial to “shift the terrain from debates about facts and morality, which I fear cannot ever be resolved, to discussions of U.S. and Japanese interests,” he says, using “comparisons from a broad range of cases — not only Japan and Germany (with its implied ‘good student-bad student’ message) — to make the case that many countries choose to deal with these issues when a confluence of domestic and international political pressures encourage them to do so.”

Japan should be encouraged on the basis of appeals to reason and interest, and “not by hectoring the Japanese to be more like the Germans.”

Berger says the pressure is indirect.

“No one has come up to me and accused me of working for the Chinese or threatened to prevent me from getting grants etc. from Japan,” he says. However, he thinks that revisionism is creating problems not only with China, but with fellow U.S. ally South Korea.

“It’s needlessly giving the Chinese government a propaganda victory,” he says, and risks stoking anti-Japanese sentiments in the States. This is because revisionist Japanese “attitudes are at best sexist and insensitive in the extreme, tantamount to Holocaust denial; at worst they represent a challenge to the foundations of the post-World War II human-rights regime.”

T. J. Pempel, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley, is an influential Japan-hand in the United States.

“I have been approached by the local (consul general’s) office in which the agenda seemed to be to convince me of the ‘correctness’ of Japan’s positions on comfort women, the disputed Senkaku islands, and so on — usually with little regard for historical fact.”

It is interesting that a number of people I contacted for comments preferred not to be quoted. Some cited pending grants and concerns about reprisals as the reason, while others don’t want to become targeted or risk relationships in Japan that might suffer if they voiced their concerns. Privately, many U.S., European and Australian academics are scathing in their appraisal of the Japanese government’s more aggressive campaign to promote revisionist history, but are reluctant to go on record as saying so. Thus the 187 scholars who signed the open letter are the tip of an iceberg.

Many cite Japanese government contacts who share their views, but it is also apparent to them that some prominent Japanese academics and advisers have trimmed their sails to the prevailing winds under Abe and actively bad-mouth foreign journalists and scholars who are speaking truth to power. The new rules of engagement in contemporary Japan reflect less tolerance for dissent and academic freedom, and it is the Japanese public, journalists and academics who are paying the steepest price for this deepening chill.

Abe often speaks of the shared values that bind Japan and the U.S., but something is getting lost in translation.

Monday in Washington, May 11, 2015

THE FUTURE OF IRAQ: A CONVERSATION WITH SUNNI LEADERS. 5/11, 9:00-10:30am. Sponsor: Brookings Institution. Speakers: Rafe al-Issawi, Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister; Atheel al-Nuyayfi, Governor of Ninewah Province; Kenneth Pollack, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings.

STATE OF PLAY: THE TRANSPACIFIC PARTNERSHIP. 5/11, 9:00-11:00am. Sponsor: Washington International Trade Association (WITA). Speakers: Barbara Weisel, Assistant US Trade Representative; Mike Castellano, Vice President for Government Relations, Walt Disney Company; Celeste Drake, Trade Globalization Policy Specialist, AFL-CIO; Clay Hough, Senior Group Vice President and General Counsel, International Dairy Foods Association; Michael Smart, Vice President, Rock Creek Global Advisors.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND TRADE. 5/11, 9:00am-6:20pm. Sponsors: US Chamber of Commerce’s (USCC) Global Intellectual Property Center; Federal Circuit Bar Association. Speakers: Kanji Yamanouchi, Japanese Minister Economic Affairs; Colin Bird, Canadian Minister-Counselor for Trade Policy; Damien Levie, Delegation of the European Union To the US Head of the Trade and Agriculture Section; Susan Wilson, US Trade Representative Intellectual Property and Innovation Director; Hendrik Barkeling, German Embassy Head of the Economic and Commercial Section.

CHINESE THINKING ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 5/11, 9:30-11:00am. Sponsor: Carnegie Endowment. Speakers: Xu Weidi, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Strategic Studies, China’s National Defense University; Wu Riqiang, Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.

US STRATEGY FOR CIVIL AND MILITARY SPACE. 5/11, 10:00-11:30pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: General James Cartwright, Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies at CSIS; Sean O'Keefe, Professor at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University; Dr. John Hamre, President, CEO, and Pritzker Chair at CSIS.

ISIS IS ABOUT THE ARAB PAST, NOT THE FUTURE. 5/11, Coffee, 10:00-11:00am. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: Rami Khouri, Former Public Policy Scholar at the Wilson Center, Senior Public Policy Fellow and Former Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, Syndicated Columnist for the Daily Star.

A SHARED GLOBAL VISION FOR WOMEN AND PEACEBUILDING. 5/11, 10:45am-1:00pm. Sponsor: United States of Peace (USIP). Speaker: Reem Al Hashimy, United Arab Emirates Minister of State. 

THE BENEFITS OF IMPORTS. 5/11, 11:00am-Noon. Sponsor: Heritage Foundation. Speakers: Daniel J. Ikenson, Director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute; Bryan Riley, Jay Van Andel Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation; Derek Scissors, Resident Scholar at AEI; Ambassador Terry Miller Director of the Center for Data Analysis and the Center for Trade and Economics, Mark A. Kolokotrones Fellow in Economic Freedom at the Heritage Foundation.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR BIPARTISAN ACHIEVEMENT IN THE 114TH CONGRESS. 5/11, Noon-12:45pm. Sponsor: Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). Speakers: Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont; Jason Grumet, President, BPC.

THE CAMP DAVID SUMMIT: REDEFINING THE US-GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL RELATIONSHIP? 5/11, Noon-2:00pm. Sponsor: Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW). Speakers: Kristin Diwan, Lecturer, American University’s School of International Service; Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University; Hisham Melhem, Washington Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya New Channel; Judith Yaphe, Visiting Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies.

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O. JOHN OLCAY LECTURE ON ETHICS AND ECONOMICS: PHISHING FOR PHOOLS. 5/11, 12:15pm. Sponsor: Peterson Institute for International Economics (IIE). Speaker: Author and Nobel Laureate George Akerlof, Georgetown University. 

INDIA'S NUCLEAR POLICIES: ONE YEAR LATER. 5/11, 3:00-4:30pm. Sponsor: Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS. Speaker: Dr. R. Rajaraman, Emeritus Professor of Physics of Jawaharlal Nehru University, Co-Chairman, International Panel on Fissile Materials.

CAN FRACKING SURVIVE? THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICES AND PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION. 5/11, 3:00-4:30pm. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Subash Chandra, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Guggenheim Partners; Dr. Terry Engelder, Professor of Geosciences at Penn State University; Russell Gold, Senior Energy Reporter at Wall Street Journal; Cynthia Quarterman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council; Richard Morningstar, Founding Director of the Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Abe's Monetary Policy--Listen with Skepticism

The Lincoln Log:  Abe’s Monetary Policy
4/23/2015


This weekend Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will arrive in Washington.  In the following week, a bevy of LDP Diet members will also descend upon Washington in the annual Golden Week trek.  Obviously, the big attention-grabbing issue is what language Prime Minister Abe will use in his address to the joint session of Congress to speak about the Comfort Women and other historical issues (an attention that is altogether proper).  But whatever he says, he and his supporters will try to soften the potential negative reaction to his view of history by talking up the success of “Abenomics.”  That is, even if we (and the Koreans and Chinese) do not like what the Prime Minister has to say about history, we should be thankful that he is rescuing the Japanese economy.  After all, it was the willingness of the Japanese public to hold their noses about his offensive right-wing nationalism in a hope that his economic policies would be better than sorry record of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) prime ministers in office 2009 to the end of 2012.  

The goal of Abenomics was to achieve 2 percent real GDP growth and 2 percent consumer price inflation within 2 years (i.e. by the end of March, 2015).  Their story will be that while the targets have not been reached, all Japan needs is a little more time because fundamentally the policies are working.  The one piece of Abenomics that most of them will tout as being more or less on target, albeit a bit more slowly than anticipated, is monetary policy.  But their story is unduly optimistic.  

Spoiler alert: deflation is not over

What is on target is the Bank of Japan’s goal of doubling the monetary base over a two period, beginning from April, 2013.  That goal was considered to be a radical policy for the normally conservative Bank of Japan.  According to Bank of Japan data, the monetary base (currency in circulation plus commercial bank reserves—a technical term that should not be confused with the money supply) was 218% higher in March 2015 than it was in March 2013.  Voilà!!  They have achieved their goal in doubling the monetary base.

But what about the intended outcome of this monetary expansion of creating 2 percent consumer price inflation?  This turns out to be a somewhat confusing issue because of the 3 percentage-point increase in the national consumption tax (a sales tax levied on most consumer goods and services).  In addition, energy prices have gyrated in the past two years, further muddying the data.  But you can be sure that Prime Minister and various visiting LDP Diet members will find ways to describe the data to support the notion that the economy is on track to producing 2 percent inflation.  Not exactly.

On the following page is a chart showing the raw consumer price index (with a base year of 2010 = 100) on a monthly basis.  As you can see, there is a jump in the index in April 2015 because of the tax increase.  The chart shows two versions of the consumer price index—the full index covering all goods and services consumed by households, and one excluding food and energy.  Economists prefer to exclude both food and energy because they are so volatile and therefore muddy any attempt to discern underlying trends.  The Japanese government prefers a “Japanese core” index that only excludes food (I have no idea why), but that one remains affected by volatile energy prices so I will skip in this analysis.  To be sure, changing energy prices eventually feed through the economic system and affect prices of all goods and services that use energy (such as airline fares being affected by the price of aviation fuel, which, in turn, is affected by the price of crude oil). 

So what does this chart show?  Consumer prices were rising slowly in the year from January 2013 to April 2015.  Since then, however, the trend of the index—both for all items and the one excluding food and energy appear to have flattened or even declined.


Rather than looking at the actual index number, economists prefer to look at measures of the change over time.  There are two ways of doing this:  comparing one month to the previous month, or comparing one month to the same month in the previous year (called a year-on-year comparison).  Because monthly economic data of any sort if often subject to random short-term events, generally economists use the year-on-year comparison.  But in this case, it is useful to look at both.

If we look at the usual year-on-year comparison, the result is shown in the chart on the following page.  In the few months preceding the start of “Abenomics” monetary policy (which began in April 2013 after Mr. Kuroda was appointed as the new governor of the Bank of Japan by Prime Minister Abe), consumer prices were still falling at a rate of -0.5 percent or a bit more.  Thereafter, prices did begin to rise.  Part of that rise was simply due to the rising price of crude oil (and the increasing importance of that more expensive oil due to the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in the year subsequent to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster).  By March 2014, just before the consumption tax increased, the overall consumer price index was rising at a year-on-year rate of 1.5 percent


and even the index minus food and energy was rising at 0.8 percent.  While well short of the 2 percent goal, the trend appeared to be in the right direction.   

When the tax rate jumped from 5 percent to 8 percent in April, obviously the change in consumer prices increased.  While the tax applies to most consumer goods and services (e.g. housing construction) it does not apply to them all (school tuition fees, for example, are exempt).  In any case, in February 2015 (the latest data available), the overall price index was running about 2.2 percent higher than a year earlier, and the index minus food and energy was 2 percent.  Quite likely these are the numbers that Japanese visitors during Golden Week will tout as showing success of Abenomics monetary policy.


But what happens if we look at the month-to-month change in prices?  The chart on the following page gives those results.  Remember, in this case we are looking at the change in prices in one month compared to the immediately preceding month (the change from January to February 2015, for example).  The numbers here are very small.  After all, if prices increase 1 percent year-on-year, then they changed month-to-month by less than 0.1 percent.  And one can see that the changes do jump around somewhat from month to month.  However, there are several interesting results from looking at these numbers.


First, prices had begun to rise just before Governor Kuroda got his Bank of Japan Policy Board to embark on quantitative easing.  Second, prices were generally rising slightly month by month after quantitative easing began (except for January 2014).  Third, the spike due to the consumption tax increase becomes very obvious.  In April, 2014 prices jumped 2 percent (both the overall index and the index minus food and energy).  Fourth, prices since April, 2014 have not continued rising.  The explanation that will be put forth by visitors to Washington will be that this is a temporary phenomenon due to falling oil prices.  But the data show the same result for the price index minus food and energy. 

These data imply that initially quantitative easing appeared to have a small positive impact on prices in its first year of operation.  But in the year since the tax increase in April 2014, that positive effect on prices has petered out.  Let’s go back to the actual index to measure the changes over time.  Leaving out food and energy, overall consumer prices rose 1.3 percent in the year from April, 2013 through March, 2014 (i.e. the index was 1.3 percent higher in March, 2014 than in April 2013).  Part of that increase was due to increasing oil prices, so the price index minus food and energy rose a much smaller 0.2 percent.  Still positive, but not anything to shout about. But from April 2014 through February 2015, the overall price index fell by 0.2 percent and the index minus food and energy fell by 0.3 percent.  Not only did the price increases stall, but the drop in prices cannot be blamed on the external factor of declining oil prices.   

This is quite discouraging—quantitative easing appeared to be having some positive effect (even if the impact once oil price increases are factored out was quite small), but that effect has worn off.  Since late 2014 prices have resumed a resumed a mild decline.  Japan is not yet out of deflation.

But what about the stories of wage increases?  No doubt this development will also be brought up by Japanese visitors.  Toyota and some other large manufacturers have been persuaded by the government to increase wages.  Won’t this help to keep prices rising as firms have to pass along the cost impact of higher wages?  That’s another whole story not worth getting into in this short note.  But briefly:  What the large, politically sensitive Toyota does in bargaining with its union and what happens to all wages in Japan are not necessarily the same thing (remember that just like in the United States, only a small proportion of the labor force is unionized).  More important, firms were so stingy in granting wage increases last year, that even a 2 percent wage increase will do no more than restore the losses workers suffered due to stagnant wages in the face of the consumption tax increase.  No need from that for firms to start increasing prices.

Is there a way to draw a more optimistic picture?  Maybe.  One effect of monetary quantitative easing has been a rather dramatic fall in the value of the yen against other currencies.  This weakening of the currency is finally producing an increase in exports.  As exports rise, so does employment in the manufacturing sector.  With a falling working-age population, increased employment in export-oriented manufacturing causes labor markets to tighten and could possibly produce higher wages—not because the government jawbones companies like Toyota, but because they can get more workers only by paying more.  That might lead to higher prices.  But it is too early to tell if this will really happen (it did not happen during the rapid export expansion of 2002-2007).  At least for the near future, therefore, Japan is not out of the woods on deflation.  So listen to the upbeat talk from Prime Minister Abe and his fellow LDP politicians with a very large dose of skepticism.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Blame George Kennan for Abe's Bad History

George Kennan
By James Gibney Editorial writer at BloombergView and APP member

First published on Bloomberg View April 29, 2015

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hawkish policies, historical revisionism, and heavy-handed efforts to manipulate domestic and foreign media have infuriated critics in Japan and its neighborhood. They might want to reserve some of that anger for U.S. super-diplomat George F. Kennan.

During the early years of the U.S. postwar occupation, an ungainly mix of idealistic New Deal reformers and right-wing satraps of General Douglas MacArthur, Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers, launched a radical attempt to liberalize Japan's economy and society -- prosecuting war criminals, busting up industrial combines, imposing land reforms and nurturing a labor movement, among other changes. A new constitution largely drafted by U.S. lawyers and civil servants dramatically expanded citizen rights, giving Japanese women what the historian John Dower called “one of the strongest equal-rights provisions in modern constitutional law.” (Dower’s Pulitzer-winning “Embracing Defeat” covers the period brilliantly.) The constitution also formally committed Japan to pacifism under Article 9, in hopes of turning the country into what MacArthur, with typical bombast, called the “Switzerland of the Pacific.”

Kennan, however, saw MacArthur’s reforms as a recipe for strategic disaster. With China torn by civil war, Europe flattened and divided, and the Cold War taking hold, Kennan believed Japan needed to be built into “the cornerstone of a Pacific Security system.” Beginning in 1947-48, he and his allies in Washington engineered a 180-degree turn in U.S. policy. War crimes trials came to an abrupt end, public employees lost the right to strike and the U.S. began to nurture Japan’s businesses and export industries. Not only were conservative pre-war politicians and bureaucrats rehabilitated, but more than 20,000 leftist union members and other workers were fired in what came to be known as the “Red purges.”

One of the bigger beneficiaries of Kennan’s “reverse course” was Abe’s grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, who had co-signed the declaration of war against the U.S. in 1941 and overseen the conscription of hundreds of thousands of Korean and Chinese laborers as head of the Munitions Ministry. Dower called Kishi “brilliant and unscrupulous”; another historian of the U.S. occupation, Michael Schaller, dubbed him “America’s Favorite War Criminal.” In 1948, after spending three years in Tokyo’s Sugamo Prison while being investigated as a Class A war criminal, Kishi was released along with 18 others for lack of evidence.

U.S. money helped Kishi become prime minister in 1957. According to Schaller, President Dwight Eisenhower authorized the CIA to provide secret campaign funds to Kishi and selected members of his relatively new Liberal Democratic Party. In return, Kishi shepherded a revision to the mutual security treaty between the U.S. and Japan that scrapped some elements unpopular with Japanese but secured the U.S. right to retain its bases in Japan and, in a secret protocol, the right to move nuclear weapons "through" Japan. (Protests over the treaty would go on to force Kishi’s resignation.)

Monday in Washington, May 4, 2015


TTIP AND BEYOND: ACHIEVING EUROPE’S STRATEGIC TRADE GOALS. 5/4, 9:00-10:15am. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Anna Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade; Scott Miller, CSIS Senior Advisor.

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HIGH HOPES AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES IN IRAQ. 5/4, 12:15-1:45pm. Sponsor: New America Foundation (NAF). Speakers: Author Emma Sky, Senior Fellow, Yale University; Peter Bergen, Director, International Security Program, NAF.

THE PATH FORWARD IN U.S.-JAPAN RELATIONS: TRADE, DIPLOMACY, AND SECURITY. 5/4, 1:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Brookings. Speakers: Strobe Talbott, President of Brookings; Yasutoshi Nishimura, State Minister of the Cabinet Office of Japan, Member of Japan’s House of Representatives; Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings; Isamu Ueda, Member of Japan’s House of Representatives; Koichiro Gemba, Member of Japan’s House of Representatives; Tetsuro Fukuyama, Member of Japan’s House of Councillors, Vice Secretary General of the Democratic Party of Japan; Jeffrey A. Bader, John C. Whitehead Senior Fellow in International Diplomacy in Foreign Policy at the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings; Mireya Solís, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and Philip Knight Chair in Japan Studies at Brookings.

THE ARAB GULF AND THE US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE. 5/4, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Abdullah Toukan, President and CEO, Strategic and International Risk Assessment; Anthony Cordesman, Chair in Strategy, CSIS.

CURRENT ISSUES IN US NATIONAL SECURITY AND DIPLOMACY. 5/4, 4:30-6:00pm. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics (IWP). Speaker: John Negroponte, Vice Chairman, McLarty Associates.

DEADLOCK TO DÉTENTE: COULD INDIA’S STRATEGIC COMPETITION WITH CHINA MEAN PEACE WITH PAKISTAN. 5/4, 5:30-6:45pm. Sponsor: Elliott School, George Washington University. Speakers: Neil Padukone, Fellow, Woman and Public Policy Program, Harvard University.

CURRENT DYNAMICS IN EURASIA REGION: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS. 5/4, 5:00-7:00pm. Sponsor: SAIS Central Asia – Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University. Speakers: SAIS Fellows.

THE UNRAVELING: HIGH HOPES AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES IN IRAQ. 5/4, 6:30-8:00pm. Sponsor: World Affairs Council. Speakers: Author Emma Sky, Senior Fellow, Yale University; Ronald Neumann, President, American Academy of Diplomacy.

Prime Minister of Japan’s Schedule December 29, 2014-January 4, 2015

Monday, December 29, 2014

AM
12:00 At private residence (no visitors)
09:41 Depart from official residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo
09:54 Arrive at hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo
10:00 Exercise at NAGOMI Spa and Fitness within hotel

PM
01:08 Finish exercising
06:15 Depart from hotel
06:32 Arrive at Italian restaurant Argento ASO in Ginza, Tokyo. Dinner with wife Akie, Director of Cabinet Intelligence Kitamura Shigeru, Mr. Kitamura’s wife, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)’s Director-General of European Affairs Bureau Hayashi Hajime, Mr. Hayashi’s wife, Ministry of Finance (MOF)’s Director-General of Budget Bureau Tanaka Kazuho, and Mr. Tanaka’s wife
09:55 Depart from restaurant
10:12 Arrive at Grand Hyatt Tokyo

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

AM
12:00 Rest at Grand Hyatt Tokyo (no visitors)
10:00 Rest at hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
11:56 Lunch meeting with Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ohta Akihiro at steakhouse Oak Door within hotel

PM
01:43 Lunch meeting ends
02:45 Exercise at NAGOMI Spa and Fitness within hotel
04:00 Finish exercising
06:33 Dinner with wife Akie at sushi restaurant Roku Roku within hotel
09:19 Finish dinner


Wednesday, December 31, 2014

AM
12:00 At hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo (no visitors)
10:00 Rest at hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
10:30 Exercise at NAGOMI Spa and Fitness within hotel

PM
12:30 Finish exercising
12:50 Lunch with wife Akie at restaurant Fiorentina within hotel
01:24 Finish lunch
04:04 Depart from hotel
04:22 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

Thursday, January 1, 2015

AM
12:00 At private residence (no visitors)
10:00 At private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
10:27 Depart from private residence
10:40 Arrive at Imperial Palace. Attend New Year’s Celebration with wife Akie
11:13 Depart from Imperial Palace
11:27 Arrive at private residence residence

PM
02:02 Depart from private residence
02:17 Arrive at hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo
03:35 Depart from hotel
03:37 Arrive at movie theater TOHO Cinemas Roppongi Hills in Roppongi, Tokyo. Enjoy movie Vancouver no Asahi [バンクーバーの朝日] with wife Akie and relatives
06:04 Depart from movie theater
06:07 Arrive at Grand Hyatt Tokyo
06:26 Dinner with wife Akie, mother Kishi Yoko, LDP Lower House Member Kishi Nobuo, and other relatives at steakhouse Oak Door within hotel
08:20 Finish dinner

Friday, January 2, 2015

AM
12:00 At hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo (no visitors)
10:00 Rest at hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo (no morning visitors)
Stay at hotel throughout morning (no visitors)

PM
01:00 Exercise at NAGOMI Fitness and Spa within hotel
02:20 Finish exercising
03:05 Depart from hotel
03:09 Arrive at movie theater TOHO Cinemas Roppongi Hills in Roppongi, Tokyo. Enjoy movie Gone Girl with wife Akie, mother Kishi Yoko, and others
05:56 Depart from movie theater
06:00 Arrive at Grand Hyatt Tokyo
06:31 Dinner with wife Akie and others at Japanese restaurant Shunbou within hotel
08:44 Finish dinner

Saturday, January 3, 2015

AM
12:00 At hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo (no visitors)
06:43 Depart from lodging at Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo
07:53 Arrive at golf course Three Hundred Golf Club in Chigasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture. Play golf with Federation of Economic Organizations (Keidanren)’s Honorary Chairman Mitarai Fujio, Chairman Sakakibara Sadayuki, and colleagues

PM
03:16 Depart from golf course
04:48 Arrive at Grand Hyatt Tokyo
06:35 Dinner with wife Akie and friends at French restaurant THE FRENCH KITCHEN within hotel
09:16 Finish dinner

Sunday, January 4, 2015

AM
12:00 At hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo (no visitors)
06:48 Depart from hotel Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi, Tokyo
07:57 Arrive at golf course Three Hundred Golf Club in Chigasaki City, Kanagawa Prefecture. Play golf with wife Akie, President of Fujifilm Holdings Komori Shigetaka and his wife

PM
01:49 Depart from golf course
02:37 Arrive at main location of Japanese restaurant Kokonotsuido in Sakae Ward, Yokohama City. Dinner with wife Akie and Mr. and Mrs. Komori Shigetaka
04:09 Depart from restaurant
05:09 Arrive at private residence in Tomigaya, Tokyo

Provisional Translation by: Erin M. Jones