Ishiba Isolated

Going it alone, with the public

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 3, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

In a Joint Plenary Meeting (JPM) on September 2, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wrapped up its assessment of their disastrous July 20 Upper House elections. The party attributed the defeat to the slush fund scandal, and it did not explicitly refer to the responsibility of the party president and prime minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Ishiba announced his willingness to continue as the prime minister in the meeting and apologized for the loss of seats in the election. However, four LDP leaders, including Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, offered their resignations to Ishiba. Ishiba now appears to be isolated from the LDP leadership.

The political struggle in the LDP over replacing Ishiba has continued even after the mid-August commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Asia-Pacific’s War’s end. Anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP have been trying to gather votes for an early presidential election, and LDP leaders have been trying to block that effort.

Following up on a decision of the JPM last month, on August 8, the LDP plans to hear from its lawmakers and local branches on whether the party should hold a presidential election before the end of Ishiba’s term, which expires in September 2027. The LDP constitution provides that an early election will take place when a majority of LDP lawmakers, which currently is 295, plus a majority of 47 local branches request one. Now, the majority consists of 172 votes or more.

The LDP Presidential Election Committee has decided that the requests for an early election will not be anonymous. The decision will make it difficult for party members to gather enough votes to request such an election -- that is, to demand Ishiba’s resignation – because they are afraid of retribution from Ishiba if the vote falls short.

In midst of this party struggle, another JPM was held on September 2. A special committee reviewing the Upper House election submitted a report to the JPM. It concluded that the LDP’s defeat was caused primarily by the secret fund scandal. The report also observed that voters had not accepted the LDP’s measures on price inflation and that a gaffe by an LDP member damaged the image of the party. The report did not place responsibility on Ishiba. The report concluded that the party needs to “restart from dissolution,” a phrase which has often been used in crises of the party in the past.

In the JPM on September 2, Ishiba announced that he would stay on as the LDP president and prime minister. “I could not meet the people’s demand for change,” said Ishiba, recognizing his role in the defeat in the Upper House election. He emphasized his willingness to advance his agenda, including tariff negotiations with the United States, agricultural policy, slowing price inflation, and disaster prevention. Recognizing his responsibility for the lost seats and not clinging to his position as prime minister, Ishiba said that he would make “a decision” on his presidency in a proper time.

His senior staff members took another way – four of them revealed their intention to resign. Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama announced in the JPM that he would step down to take responsibility for the electoral defeat. Three other leaders, Itsunori Onodera, the chief of the policy council, Shunichi Suzuki, the chair of the general council, and Seiji Kihara, the chair of the election committee also submitted letters of resignation. “You too?” Ishiba reportedly murmured when he received them. He now must decide whether to accept them.

The LDP has entered the official process to consider whether to hold an early presidential election. LDP lawmakers and local branches who favor an early election must submit those requests by September 8. If the party receives 172 or more such requests, an early presidential election will be held. A heavyweight in the LDP, Taro Aso, announced that he would demand such an election.

According to Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey of the lawmakers and local branches, 128 will vote for an early election. Only 33 have formally taken the position that an election is unnecessary. The remaining 181 lawmakers or branches have not yet decided or are unwilling to communicate their decisions.

Polls show that Ishiba retains a material measure of popular support. In a poll taken by Yomiuri Shimbun in late August, 50 percent of respondents thought Ishiba did not have to resign, while 42 percent thought he should. When asked about the reason for the loss in the Upper House election, 81 percent placed responsibility on the LDP lawmakers who were involved in the political funds scandal. Fifty percent of all respondents thought Ishiba’s responsibility was great, but this percentage is much lower than the percentage that attributes the loss to the scandal.

Even more favorable to Ishiba is a gradual increase in his approval rating. In a poll taken by the Mainichi Shimbun, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet was 33 percent, a four percentage point increase from July. According to the poll, Ishiba is the most suitable person as prime minister with the support of 21 percent of the respondents, followed by Sanae Takaichi with 14 percent and Shinjiro Koizumi with nine percent.

As anti-Ishiba movements spread in the LDP, the difference between anti-Ishiba powers in the party and public opinion widens. If the LDP replaces the president, there is no assurance that the party will be able to regain the power to lead an administration based on a minority government. The LDP lawmakers and local branches face a choice to oust Ishiba to attract public attention or rebuild the party under his leadership.