The Opposition is CRA_P_arty

Japan’s Shrinking Opposition

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
February 16, 2026

As the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi garnered more than two-thirds of the seats in the Lower House in the February 8 election, the opposition parties have shrunk. This gives Takaichi’s government great power to turn its policies into law. It is a major question how the opposition powers are going to survive under huge pressure from the Takaichi administration and its high popularity. Democracy in Japan may depend on whether the opposition parties can properly check her unilateral exercise of power that is not limited by any need to compromise.

The top opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), lost 71% of its seats, falling from 167 to 49, in the election. The CRA is a new entity in the Lower House that is the result of a merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and Komeito. The parties merged just one day before Takaichi dissolved the Lower House. Voters saw the merger as a cynical political ploy by the two parties to keep power in the Lower House. The CRA’s policy differences with the LDP did not register with the voters in any significant way.

Unsurprisingly, the co-leaders of the CRA announced their resignations the day after the election. “We have an obsolete image,” said one of them, Yoshihiko Noda. Just four days later, on February 13, the CRA held an election for a new leader.

In that election, former CDPJ Secretary General, Jun-ya Ogawa, 54, defeated former Parliamentary Vice-minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, Takeshi Shina, by 27 to 22 votes. A son of a hairdresser in Takamatsu, Kagawa, Ogawa has positioned himself on the liberal side of the CDPJ, representing the interests of ordinary citizens. He is known as a policy expert from his time at the Ministry for Internal Affairs and Communications.

Ogawa made clear his differences with Takaichi in his press conference as the new leader where he emphasized the role of the CRA in advocating for democracy, promoting pacifism, and engaging in people-first and transparent politics. He questioned Takaichi’s slogan “responsible and proactive public finances” as an outmoded process of limiting the government’s budget to a percentage of GDP. According to Ogawa, it is not meaningful to compare an indicator under the government’s control (the budget deficit) with a measurement that is not (GDP). .

Before it can compete with the LDP’s super majority in the Lower House, the CRA must integrate itself. Now, the CRA exists only in the Lower House. The CDPJ and Komeito in the Upper House decided not to merge into the CRA, splintering the two parties’ power there. In the Lower House, the powers of the two former parties are not equivalent.

The CRA fielded 236 candidates in the Lower House election; 202 for single-seat districts (SSD) and 34 for proportional districts (PD). All the candidates for SSD were from the CDPJ. In PD, 28 were from Komeito and 6 from the CDPJ. It is notable that 200 were doubly nominated both on SSD and PD, who had chance to get seats in PD even after they had lost in SSD.

Here’s the result. The CRA achieved 7 seats in SSD and 42 in PD. Of the CRA’s slate of candidates for PD, all the 28 from Komeito won the seat, because they were ranked at high position. Only 14 candidates from the CDPJ could secure their seats in PD. The seats with legacy CDPJ lawmakers fell by 86% from 148 to 21. The former Komeito gained seats in the Lower House from 24 to the 28 CRA candidates who were elected.

Former CDPJ members in the CRA are of course frustrated with the results of unification of the two parties. They have lost not only colleagues but also substantial parts of their policy agenda. The CRA accepts the constitutionality of the 2015 security legislation while the CDPJ does not. The CRA also does not object to nuclear power or the resumption of shut down nuclear power plants, although the CDPJ has been looking to end use of nuclear power. These positions have been pillars of the CDPJ platform, but they have been given up in the Lower House. Some former CDPJ lawmakers believe that the CRA’s rejection of the two CDPJ policies alienated liberal supporters.

Ogawa has not bridged the differences between the two groups. Komeito favors a constitutional amendment expanding the definition of self-defense, and Ogawa did not rule out an amendment to describe “self-defense force” in the constitution. But this is one part of four in the LDP’s agenda for discussion. The CDPJ group in the CRA firmly opposes any such change and is worried about the hawkish movement to increase war preparations. Ogawa has since explained he did not mean to concede so easily to the LDP’s proposed amendment.

Meanwhile, the CRA hopes to develop a cooperative relationship with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which is popular among young voters. Both the CRA and the DPP enjoy support from the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo). Although the LDP considered adding the DPP as a coalition partner, the LDP’s overwhelming electoral success eliminated any need for the LDP to ask for the DPP’s cooperation. The DPP has said that it will not join the LDP coalition.

From the DPP side, the party has no great interest in cooperating with the CRA, which comes across as an old and undynamic political body. The CRA’s positions on the constitutional amendment and on the resumption of nuclear power plants will push the DPP away. Still, the CRA will try to find commonalities with the DPP over some issues in the Diet.

Other populist parties, Sanseito and Team Mirai, that received a modest surge in the Lower House election, will go their own way, given the size of the LDP majority. These parties are also unlikely to coordinate their positions with those of the CRA. The leftist parties, Japan Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi, lost significant numbers of seats in the election and will not have a substantial presence in the Lower House.

Politics in Japan is now much like our solar system in which small planets orbit the sun. As long as the LDP maintains its majority and the Japan Innovation Party supports the LDP agenda, opposition parties cannot take meaningful countermeasures to constrain Takaichi’s free hand in bringing her policies to fruition.