Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Strategic Mongolia

On July 10, the eve of Mongolia's National Day, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj will be sworn in for his second term as the country’s president. The election was held June 26th. July 11 through 13 is Mongolia's festival of Naadam. In 2010, Naadam was inscribed on the Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity of UNESCO.

An emerging democracy squeezed between Russia and China, Mongolia is a strategic conundrum rich in coal, minerals, and rare earths. This situation has made the country pivotal in Asian power and economic calculations. Both Japan and South Korea are working hard to strengthen their relationship with Mongolia. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Mongolia in March and an economic partnership agreement is in negotiation. Abe's his close friend and Minister of Abduction Furuya Keiji is attending the inauguration of the president.  South Korean President Park Geun-hye sent her Senior Secretary for Foreign Affairs and National Security Ju Chul-ki.

Mongolia, with its good relationships with North Korea and Russia, has the potential to play a significant diplomatic role in the region. As one of the region's fastest growing economies, it may soon have the means to use its political advantages. Recently, the Mongolian government has been spending public relations money in Washington by funding think tanks, research, and trips. Expect to hear more from this country. Below is an essay from the Jamestown Foundation that has long followed the country and the region.

Avoiding the “Resource Curse” in Mongolia by Theodore H. Moran, nonresident senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Policy Brief 13-18, July 2, 2013, 8pp.

World Bank Group’s new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Mongolia, May 22, 2013
An excellent blog that follows contemporary Mongolia is: Mongolia Focus.

By: Mendee Jargalsaikhany
First published in the Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 10 Issue: 124, July 8, 2013.

On July 3, the Mongolian parliament endorsed Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj’s second term as the country’s president, based on the General Election Commission’s report (Press Release of the Mongolian parliament, July 3). The swearing-in ceremony will be organized on July 10, on the eve of the three-day national holiday, Naadam.

According to the General Election Commission, the incumbent President Elbegdorj, nominated by the Democratic Party (DP), was re-elected by a narrow majority of 50.23 percent in the first round. The opposition Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) nominee Member of Parliament (MP) Badnaanyambuugyn Bat-Erdene received 41.97 percent; and the third candidate, Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) nominee Natsagyn Udval collected 6.5 percent of votes. Turnout was 66.5 percent (http://www.gec.gov.mn/election2013/flashresults.html). The opposition parties have acknowledged the DP victory, thus creating a stable political atmosphere and ruling out any claims for a run-off election (Ugluunii Sonin, 24tsag.mn, June 28).

This was the first Mongolian election monitored by the Election Observation Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) since Mongolia became an OSCE member on November 21, 2012. Despite some areas needing improvement, the OSCE observers concluded the election was competitive and free in their interim report (http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/103142). By highlighting the areas still in need of improvement, the OSCE election monitoring mission’s report will provide extra leverage to Mongolian political leaders who are working to improve the country’s democratic political institutions. Moreover, the OSCE’s involvement will almost certainly help to enhance mutual understanding between Mongolia and its European partners.

As a result of the presidential election, the DP will dominate Mongolian politics until 2016 and continue to play a determinative role in directing major political and socio-economic policies. In addition to a majority in the parliament, DP currently holds the posts of parliamentary chairman, prime minister, as well as president. Moreover, the DP controls the governorships and boards of citizens’ representatives of most provinces as well as the capital city, Ulaanbaatar. Nevertheless, Elbegdorj’s pre-campaign strategy and actions actually highlighted his party’s internal challenges to present the DP as a transparent, responsible, and democratic political force. These challenges include a separation of legislative and executive bodies, upholding the rule of law, and overhauling the country’s mining policies.

The separation of Mongolia’s legislative and executive branches has become blurred since the end of the 1990s, as successive majority and coalition parties have had to defend their fragile cabinets. Although Elbegdorj criticized and rejected endorsing a number of cabinet members of the MPP-led governments, he has remained silent when his own party filled 17 out of 19 cabinet posts with serving parliamentarians. The opposition and the public have called on a clearer separation between the legislative and executive branches in order to improve government accountability and transparency. To satisfy their demands, just before the presidential election, Elbegdorj submitted a draft bill that would only allow the prime minister to simultaneously serve in the cabinet and as an active member of parliament. The chairman of the parliament agreed to discuss the bill, but even if passed and signed into law, the actual separation would not apply until the cabinet following the 2016 parliamentary elections (MONTSAME News, June 10). In order to hold the fragile coalition government together, the DP is unlikely to separate the legislative and executive authorities.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Monday in Washington July 8th

THE FUTURE OF CIVIL SPACE EXPLORATION. 7/8, 9:00-10:00am. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD), Ranking Member, House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Subcommittee on Space; James Lewis, Senior Fellow, Director, Technology and Public Policy Program, CSIS.

NEAR EARTH OBJECTS: ADDRESSING THE CURRENT THREAT LEVEL. 7/8, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsors: Secure World Foundation (SWF); American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Center for Science, Technology, and Security. Speakers: Dr. Irwin Shapiro, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Dr. Mark Boslough, Principle Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories; Lindley Johnson, NASA's Headquarters Program Executive for NASA's Near Earth Object Program; Victoria Samson, SWF Washington Office Director. 

TALKING TO THE TALIBAN: HOPE OVER HISTORY? 7/8, 12:15-1:45pm. Sponsor: New American Foundation. Speakers: Amb. Omar Samad, Senior Central Asia Fellow, National Security Studies Program, New America Foundation; Ryan Evans, Assistant Director, Center for the National Interest, Co-author; Peter Neumann, Director, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, Co-author; Moderator Ben Connable, International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation.

HOW DOES OUR NEED FOR FOREIGN ENERGY RESOURCES IMPACT OUR NATIONAL SECURITY? A Conversation With Former CIA Director Ambassador James Woolsey. 7/8. 6:30-8:30pm. Sponsor: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Speaker: James Woolsey, former Central Intelligence director and chair of the board of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a venture partner with Lux Capital Management.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Prime Minister of Japan's Schedule June 20-28, 2013

June 20, 2013 (Thurs)

PM

03:42 Finishes tour of Europe. Arrives from England at Haneda airport on a government plane with wife Akie
03:59 Leaves airport
04:24 Arrives at Imperial Palace. Report of return
04:32 Leaves Imperial Palace
04:41 Arrives at office
04:58 Koji Omi, former Minister of Finance
06:20 Leaves office
06:34 Arrives in front of the Waterras complex in Awajicho, Tokyo. Gives speech
06:54 Leaves Waterras
07:14 Arrives at Hotel Okura in Toranomon, Tokyo. Dines at Chinese restaurant with Masahiko Ichiriki, president of Kahoku Shimpo; Masahito Yoshida, President of Fukui Newspaper Company; Sotaro Kosaka, President of Shinano Mainichi Shimbun; Go Oishi, President of Shizuoka Newspaper Company; Michikazu Shiraishi, Chairman and President of Kyoto Newspaper Company. Katsunobu Kato, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, is present
08:51 Leaves hotel
09:08 Arrives at private residence in Tomigaya

June 21, 2013 (Fri)

AM

07:59 Leaves private residence in Tomigaya
08:10 Arrives at office
08:11 Toshiro Yonemura, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management
08:22 Cabinet meeting begins
08:46 Cabinet meeting ends
09:17 Shigeru Kitamura, Cabinet Intelligence Officer
10:05 Taizo Nishimuro, Japan Post President
10:27 LDP’s Yuriko Koike, Chairperson, Public Relations Headquarters; Takuya Hirai, Public Relations Headquarters. Katsunobu Kato, Chief Cabinet Deputy Secretary, is present
11: 27 Kensei Mizote, Secretary-General for the LDP in the House of Councillors; Hiromi Yoshida, Deputy Secretary for the LDP in the House of Councillors

PM
12:49 Leave official residence
01:23 Arrives at Tokiwadai Station’s north exit in Tokiwadai, Tokyo. Gives street speech
01:37 Lays flowers at a monument for police officer Kunihito Miyamoto who died in the line of duty
01:39 Leaves station
01:53 Arrives in front of Itabashi Green Hall. Gives street speech
02:12 Leaves Itabashi Green Hall
02:39 Arrives at Keidanren Assembly Hall in Otemachi, Tokyo
03:00 Attends Annual Meeting of the National Association of Shinkin Banks and gives address
03:18 Leaves assembly hall
03:54 Arrives at the west exit of JR Kita Senju Station. Gives street speech
04:12 Leaves station
04:38 Arrives at east exit of Takenotsuka station. Gives street speech
04:59 Leaves station
05:41 Arrives at Ichinoe Station’s exit 7. Gives street speech
06:04 Leaves station
06:44 Arrives at office
07:28 Leaves office
07:30 Arrives at official residence. Dines with lyricist Yasushi Akimoto and Yoshio Nakamura, Emeritus Professor at Tokyo Medical and Dental University
09:05 Leaves official residence
09:21 Arrives at private residence

June 22, 2013 (Sat)

AM

10:13 Leaves private residence
11:08 Arrives in front of Minami Osawa Station in Hachioji City, Tokyo. Gives street speech. Stump speech schedule
11:32 Leaves station
11:44 Arrives at restaurant in the same city. Has lunch with Koichi Hagiuda, LDP House Member

PM
12:26 Leaves restaurant
01:02 Arrives at south exit of JR Musashi-Koganei Station. Gives street speech
01:24 Leaves station
01:58 Arrives at Kichijoji Station’s north exit rotary. Gives street speech
02:21 Leaves station
02:52 Arrives at north exit of Shakujiikoen Station. Gives street speech
03:11 Leaves station
04:00 Arrives at west exit of JR Shinjuku Station. Gives street speech
04:21 Leaves station
05:08 Arrives at west exit of JR Kamata Station. Gives street speech
05:35 Leaves station
06:15 Arrives at Italian Restaurant Argento Tatsuji ASO in Ginza, Tokyo. Dines with actor Masahiko Tsugawa.
09:17 Leaves restaurant
09:34 Arrives at private residence

June 23, 2013 (Sun)

AM

07:09 Leaves private residence in Tomigaya
07:35 Arrives at Haneda Airport
08:00 Leaves Haneda on ANA flight 125. Itsunori Onodera, Defense Minister; Eiichi Hasegawa, Adviser to the Prime Minister also go
10:03 Arrive at Naha Airport
10:34 Leave airport
11:07 Arrive at Peace Memorial Park in Itoman, Okinawa. Inside, lays flowers at the National Cemetery for the War Dead. Attends with Hirokazu Nakaima, Governor of Okinawa Prefecture
11:13 Leaves national cemetery
11:17 Arrives at Okinawa Peace Prayer Hall inside park
11:44 Leaves hall
11:52 Inside park, attends the Memorial Ceremony to Commemorate the Fallen on the 68th Anniversay of the End of the Battle of Okinawa. Offers flowers and gives address

PM
12:52 Gives interview to media outlets inside park
12:57 Leaves Memorial Peace Park
01:32 Arrives at Naha’s ANA Crowne Plaza Hotel Okinawa Harborview
01:49 Dines with Governor Nakaima in hotel’s banquet hall. Ichita Yamamoto, Minister of State for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs; Aiko Shimajiri, Parliamentary Secretary for the Cabinet Office; Kurayoshi Takara, Vice Governor of Okinawa, are present
02:42 Leave hotel
02:52 Arrive at Naha Airport
03:21 Leaves airport on JAL flight 916
05:25 Arrives at Haneda Airport
05:36 Leaves airport
06:19 Arrives at private residence
10:55 Interview with media outlets at private residence

June 24, 2013 (Mon)

AM

08:35 Leaves private residence in Tomigaya
08:49 Arrives at office
10:20 Katsunobu Kato, Chief Cabinet Deputy Secretary
10:51 Itsunori Onodera, Defense Minister; Hideshi Tokuchi, Director-General of Defense Policy Bureau
11:31 Shigeru Kitamura, Cabinet Intelligence Officer; Koji Shimohira, Director, Defense Intelligence Headquarters enter
11:48 Mr. Shimohira exits
11:54 Mr. Kitamura exits

PM
12:04 Courtesy call from the children of Eisu Gakkan Elementary School in Fukuyama, Hiroshima and Great Falls Elementary School in Virginia, U.S.A.
12:54 Leave office
12:55 Arrive at National Diet
12:56 House of Representatives chamber
01:02 Opening of Plenary Session of the House of Representatives
01:04 House of Representatives Plenary Session break
01:06 Leave National Diet
01:07 Arrive at office
01:54 Leave office
01:55 Arrive at National Diet
01:56 House of Representatives chamber
02:02 Reopening of House of Representatives Plenary Session
05:28 House of Representatives Plenary Session adjourns
05:31 Hiroyuki Hosoda, Acting Chief Secretary of LDP
05:41 LDP President Chamber
05:43 LDP officer meeting
06:08 Leave National Diet
06:09 Arrive at office
06:13 Start of the Meeting of the Government Tax Commission
06:20 Excuses himself from meeting
06:42 Leaves office
06:59 Arrive at private residence

June 25, 2013 (Tues)

AM

08:39 Leaves private residence in Tomigaya
08:54 Arrives at office
09:05 Cabinet meeting
09:30 Richard Armitage, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State; Joseph Nye, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense
10:00 Meeting of the Advisory Council on the “Challenge Again” Initiative
10:50 Hideshi Tokuchi, Director-General of Defense Policy Bureau
11:49 Shigeru Ishiba, LDP Secretary-General enters

PM
12:08 Mr. Ishiba exits
12:09 Government party leaders’ discussion with Natsuo Yamaguchi, President of New Komeito Party. Party Secretary-Generals Mr. Ishiba and New Komeito’s Yoshihisa Inoue are present
12:38 Koichi Hagiuda, Deputy Director-General of the Headquarters for the Revitalization of Education of the Liberal Democratic Party
02:06 Interview with Asahi Shimbun
02:52 Katsuyuki Kawai, Chairman of the Lower House Foreign Affairs Committee
03:09 Taro Aso, Finance Minister; Yasushi Kinoshita, Head of Budget Bureau; Kazuho Tanaka, Head of Tax Bureau enter
03:48 Mr. Kinoshita and Mr. Tanaka exit
04:06 Mr. Aso leaves
04:23 Tomomi Inada, Administration Reform Minister
05:01 Receives Report on the Reform of the System of Large Metropolitan Areas and the System of Administrative Service Provision by Basic Municipal Units
05:58 Yoshihide Suga, Katsunobu Kato, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuhiro Sugita, Chief and Vice-Chief Cabinet Secretaries
06:33 Leaves office
06:34 Arrives at official residence. Dines with journalist Yoshiko Sakurai, Terumasa Nakanishi, Emeritus Professor at Kyoto University
08:05 Leaves official residence
08:11 Arrives at Hotel Leport Kojimachi in Hirakawacho, Tokyo. Inside banquet hall has informal talk with Takeshi Iwaya and Taimei Tamaguchi, both LDP House of Representatives Members
08:57 Leaves hotel
09:13 Arrive at private residence
09:20 TBS interview

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

War photography

Two venues in Washington this month hold exhibits of war photography that include subjects from conflicts in Asia. Both have opening receptions this holiday weekend. They are the Corcoran Gallery of Art and the Korean Cultural Center Washington DC.


WAR/PHOTOGRAPHY: Images of Armed Conflict and Its Aftermath
The Corcoran Gallery of Art
June 29–September 29, 2013

This landmark exhibition revolutionizes our understanding of this momentous subject, immersing viewers in the experience of soldiers and civilians during wartime. Epic in scope and ambition, and featuring many of the most indelible photographs ever made, WAR/PHOTOGRAPHY takes us from the home front to the battlefield and back again. For a REVIEW.

SATURDAY, JULY 6, 10:00 a.m.-5 p.m. A Special Day of Programming

Tragedy Assistance Programs for Survivors Workshop, 10 a.m.- 3 p.m.

Perfect for family participation, an interactive booth will allow adults and children of all ages to show support for families who have lost a loved one in war by writing a letter or signing a card as a way of extending sympathy to remaining survivors. Additionally, two children's book readings will take place throughout the day in the Reflection Room, affording kids another way to connect with and manage the themes of the exhibition.

Veterans History Project Workshop; 1:30 p.m.

Increase your understanding of the oral history interviewing process through this interactive workshop presented by the Veterans History Project of the American Folklife Center at the Library of Congress, a national initiative mandated by Congress to collect, preserve and make accessible the first-person accounts of America's wartime veterans. To date, over 87,000 veterans have submitted their personal recollections making this the largest such collection in American history. The workshop will be led by retired US Army colonel, Bob Patrick, Director of the Veterans History Project. Instructional materials will be provided for each participant. REGISTER HERE.


Film Screening; Bearing Witness, 3:30 p.m.

In this powerful documentary film, Barbara Kopple, Bob Eisenhardt and Marijana Wotton chronicle the personal and professional lives of five female journalists as they cover war across the globe. Bearing Witness is presented in collaboration with Women Photojournalists of Washington. REGISTER HERE

LOOKING AT MEMORIES THROUGH EYES: Photography by Seung-Geun Park
Korean Cultural Center
July 5 - 31, 2013
Opening Reception 
Friday, July 5 @ 6:30 pm

Featuring evocative portraits of veterans of the Korean War and scenes of the UN Memorial Cemetery in Korea, located in Busan.

Documentary photographer and active ZUMA Press foreign correspondent, Seung Geun Park received his Masters in photography and is currently pursuing a doctorate in Visual Anthropology. Since 2005, he has been in charge of photography for various major Korean media, including KBS, Sisa Journal, Sunday Fishing, and Cine21. He was the official photographer for the Busan International Film Festival and NIKE. Currently, he has published four books and in 2004 received the grand prize in the documentary category of a photo exhibition contest sponsored by Joong-Ang Daily.

"To defend freedom and peace in Korea, many young soldiers from 21 countries gathered under the banner of the United Nations. Now, after 60 years, they are deeply wrinkled, white-haired veterans. But, their eyes, regardless of the times gone by, still shows plenty of animation."
- Seung-Geun Park

This exhibition is held in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of Korean Armistice Agreement, signed on July 27, 1953, which marked the birth of the Korea-US Alliance.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Rendezvous with Destiny

Rendezvous with Destiny: How Franklin Roosevelt Took the United States into World War II

On July 3, Foreign Policy at The Brookings Institution will host Nonresident Senior Fellow Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and author of the new book Rendezvous with Destiny: How Franklin D. Roosevelt and Five Extraordinary Men Took America into the War and into the World (Penguin Press, 2013).

Fullilove will present his account of FDR’s special envoys sent on missions to Europe in the lead-up to Pearl Harbor: Sumner Welles, a well-bred diplomat who was eventually forced out of the State Department for his sexual misadventures; “Wild Bill” Donovan, the Republican lawyer, adventurer and future spymaster; Harry Hopkins, the sickly social worker and political fixer; Wendell Willkie, a former Republican presidential candidate; and Averell Harriman, the railroad baron turned policy-maker. Taken together, the missions describe the progressive hardening of Roosevelt’s policy toward the dictators and plot the arc of America’s transformation from a reluctant middle power into the global leader.

Kurt Campbell, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and now chairman and CEO of The Asia Group, will join the discussion, which will be moderated by Brookings Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Martin Indyk.

Japan's war in Asia, beginning in 1937 (if not 1931), was a subtext to Roosevelt's worries about the war in Europe. American Sundays were colored by urgent pleas by church missionaries to help the beleaguered Chinese. Newspapers reported horrific stories of massacre and mayhem. As Japan moved into Southeast Asia, Washington began to view the Japanese as they did the Germans. Yet, preparations for war in Asia followed a different course than those with Europe. 

With Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe adamant that the 1941 Hull Note was an ultimatum that tricked, if not forced Japan into war with the United States, understanding the pre-WWII environment is ever more important. Abe looks to this past and interprets it as Japan's glory. He wants to recapture and repackage it as enviable honor.

The Chinese have a different view. For them, the second world war began not in 1939 but in 1937 and they fought it more or less alone. Their sacrifices of people, treasure, and morality though rarely known outside China, permanently changed Chinese social and political perceptions. Today's China is not the creation of colonial Britain, the treaty ports, or the opium wars of the 19th century, but was formed on the bloody battlefields against Imperial Japan.

This is all outlined in a new book by Oxford Professor Rana Mitter, China's war with Japan, 1937-1945: The struggle for survival (To be published in America in September as Forgotten Ally: China’s World War II, 1937-45 by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt). [Book Review] [Economist Review] He writes: 
If we wish to understand the role of China in today's global society, we would do well to remind ourselves of the tragic, titanic struggle which that country waged in the 1930s and 1940s not just for its own national dignity and survival, but for the victory of all the Allies, west and east, against some of the darkest forces that history has ever produced.

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Monday in Washington, July 1

CHINA FINANCIAL CENTRE DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT. 7/1, 7:30-11:45am Sponsor: Economic Strategy Institute. Speakers: Clyde Prestowitz, President, Economic Strategy Institute; Feng Yueqiu, Director, China Development Institute (CDI); Dr. Guo Wanda, Executive Vice President, CDI; Zhou Guoyou, Director, Issuer Marketing, Department of Shenzhen Stock Exchange; Dr. Zhang Jiansen, Director of Center for Financial Studies, CDI.

REBUILDING IRAQ: LESSONS GOING FORWARD. 7/1, 8:30-10:00am. Sponsor: Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Speaker: Stuart Bowen, Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Author, Hard Lessons: The Iraq Reconstruction Experience.

RETHINKING NORTH KOREAN NEGOTIATIONS. 7/1, Noon-1:00pm. Sponsor: Sigur Center for Asian Studies, Elliot School, George Washington University (GWU). Speaker: LTC Kiwan Shin, Republic of Korea Army, Visiting Scholar, Sigur Center for Asian Studies, Elliott School, GWU. 

MERRY CHRISTMAS (JOYEUX NOËL) 7/1, 6:30-9:00pm. Sponsor: Goethe-Institut Washington, Goethe Forum. Film viewing and discussion of the 2005 film that expands on an actual Christmas Eve during world War I, where the Germans, French, and Scottish fraternize and get to know the men who live on the opposite side of a brutal war, in what became a true lesson of humanity.

North Korean Sanctions Report

Global Nampo
On May 31, the UN's 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee met to discuss its latest annual report from the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the Committee.* The report was circulated to Council members in mid-May and approved for publication June 11. On June 24th, the report and fact sheet were, without objection from China, released publicly.

The 133-page report concludes that the DPRK continues to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. "In both its export and import of goods under sanctions," the DPRK uses "a variety of techniques to circumvent national controls, indicating that the imposition of sanctions has hampered its arms sales and illicit weapon programs." The majority of sanctions non-compliance incidents brought to the attention of the Panel involve movements of illicit goods by sea. Yet, the PoE believe that the sanctions are having an impact and are causing significant delays to Pyongyang's plans.

Most significant, paragraph 50 states that "Diplomats of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or officials travelling on diplomatic or service passports, have also been involved in numerous violations of the arms embargo." The paragraph 51 urges nations hosting North Korean embassies, missions or trade offices "to exercise enhanced vigilance over DPRK diplomatic personnel so as to prevent such individuals from contributing to the DPRK’s prohibited programmes or activities, or to the evasion of sanctions."

The report mentioned incidents involving Pyongyang's officials acting in countries such as Ukraine, Austria and the Republic of Congo ranging from attempts to obtain classified information, to conducting illicit activities out of a diplomatic office and violating arms embargoes.

The POE recommends designating four entities and 11 people for blacklisting.They include the new North Korea Ministry of Atomic Energy Industry, the Munitions Industry Department of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers' Party, the State Space Development Bureau and the Hesong Trading Corp.The individuals include high ranking officials affiliated with the various entities, as well as two individuals from Ukraine and one from Kazakhstan.


24 June 2013, Fact Sheet compiling certainmeasures imposedby Security Council Resolutions1718(2006), 1874(2009), 2087(2013), and 2094(2013)


March 2013, UN Security Council Resolutions on North Korea, Arms Control Association

*On March 7th, almost four months in advance of the scheduled expiry of the PoE, the Council adopted resolution 2094 renewing its mandate until 7 April 2014, but deciding that the PoE should still submit a final report in accordance with the original reporting schedule of resolution 2050.)

Friday, June 28, 2013

Prime Minister of Japan's Schedule June 12-19

June 12, 2013 (Wed)

AM

09:40 Leave private residence in Tomigaya
09:59 Arrive at office
11:15 Toshiro Yonemura, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management

PM
01:25 Lower House Member Yasuhisa Shiozaki, Japanese Chairman of UK-Japan 21th Century Group; Ken Shibusawa, President & CEO of Japan Center for International Exchange
02:12 Katsusada Hirose, Governor of Oita Prefecture
03:55 Katsuhito Ikeda, Director of Atomic Energy Regulation Office
04:19 Yuhei Sato, Governor of Fukushima Prefecture
04:38 Hirokazu Nakaima, Governor of Okinawa Prefecture and Chairman of the Council for Promotion of De-zoning and Reutilization of Military Land in Okinawa
04:55 Akira Amari, Minister of Economic Revitalization; Ikuro Sugawara, Manufacturing Industry Director at Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
05:18 Katsunobu Kato, Chief Cabinet Deputy Secretary; Koji Tsuruoka, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs; Nobuhiko Sasaki, Vice-Minister for International Affairs, METI
06:17 Industrial Competitiveness Council
07:07 Leave office
07:16 Arrive at Chinese restaurant “Rikyu” in Akasaka, Tokyo. Informal talk with editorial writers of newspaper and news companies
09:26 Leave restaurant
09:42 Arrive at private residence

June 13, 2013 (Thurs)

AM

08:42 Leave official residence
09:08 Enter the Caretta Shiodome complex in Higashi Shinbashi, Tokyo. Inside at Caretta Photo Studio record LDP video. LDP’s Yuriko Koike, Chairperson, Public Relations Headquarters; Takuya Hirai, Public Relations Headquarters are present
10:40 Leave complex
10:51 Arrive at office
11:15 Telephone conversation with US President Obama

PM
12:29 Lunch with Haruhito Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan
01:38 Akira Amari, Minister of Economic Revitalization
01:49 Leave office
02:05 Arrive at Caretta Shiodome. Inside at Caretta Photo Studio record LDP video. Yuriko Koike and Takuya Hirai are present
03:32 Leave complex
03:43 Arrive at office
03:55 Ministerial Council on Monthly Economic Report and Other Relative Issues
04:32 Receive report from Minoru Makihara, Japanese Chairman of U.S.-Japan Conference on Cultural and Educational Interchange (CULCON) Education Task Force. U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos is present
04:56 Taro Aso, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance; Yasushi Manago, Vice Finance Minister; Yasushi Kinoshita, Head of Budget Bureau; Kazuho Tanaka, Head of Tax Bureau
05:16 Shigetaro Yamamoto, Governor of Yamaguchi Prefecture; Shungaku Yanai, Yamaguchi Prefectural Assembly Chair
05:48 Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
06:13 Hakubun Shimomura, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
07:01 Leave office
07:05 Arrive at Hotel Okura in Toranomon, Tokyo. In banquet room, attend the inauguration ceremony for the Newly Reorganized Medical Excellence Japan and give address
07:27 Leave hotel
07:30 Arrive at official residence. Dinner with Hakubun Shinomura, Naoki Inose, Governor of Tokyo Metropolitan area
09:04 Leave official residence
09:18 Arrive at private residence

June 14, 2013 (Fri)

AM

08:22 Leave private residence
08:36 Arrive at office
08:47 Japan Economic Revitalization Headquarters
09:05 Cabinet meeting
09:23 Interview with media outlets
10:00 Akitaka Saiki and Koji Tsuruoka, both Deputy Ministers for Foreign Affairs; Nobuhiko Sasaki, Vice-Minister for International Affairs, METI enter
10:22 Mr. Sasaki leaves
10:32 Mr. Saiki leaves
10:44 Mr. Tsuruoka leaves
10:54 Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida; Chikao Kawai, Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs
11:15 Shigeru Kitamura, Cabinet Information Officer

PM
12:51 Sanae Takaichi, Chairman of the Policy Research Council, LDP
01:42 Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary
01:53 Tomomi Inada, Administrative Reform Minister
02:30 Akitaka Saiki and Koji Tsuruoka, both Deputy Ministers for Foreign Affairs; Nobuhiko Sasaki, Vice-Minister for International Affairs, METI
03:46 Kazuho Tanaka, Director General of the Tax Bureau
04:11 Mr. Saiki and Mr. Sasaki
06:22 Leave office
06:34 Arrive at Aoyama Funeral Parlor in Minami Aoyama, Tokyo. Attends the wake of Nagayoshi Sumida, former President and CEO of Sankei Shimbun
06:37 Leave funeral
07:01 Arrive at Ancienne Ai restaurant in Sangen-Jaya, Tokyo. Dinner with wife Akie
08:53 Leave restaurant
09:07 Arrive at private residence

June 15, 2013 (Sat)

AM

10:06 Leave private residence
10:25 Arrive at Grand Hyatt Hotel Tokyo in Roppongi. Exercise at Nagomi Spa and Fitness

PM
01:21 Leave hotel
01:43 Arrive at Haneda Airport
01:55 Interview with media outlets
02:20 Leave on government plane to Poland to begin visit to European countries with wife Akie. The Prime Minister Visits Poland
In Poland, attends “Food Reception”

June 16, 2013 (Sun)

Continues activities in Poland
Attends Japanese food fair
Summit with V4 nations: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Slovak Republic

June 17, 2013 (Mon)

Discussion with President Obama
G8 Lough Erne Summit in Northern Ireland

June 18, 2013 (Tues)

Second day of G8 Summit

June 19, 2013 (Wed)

The Prime Minister visits to Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom
Meet with Enda Kenny, Prime Minister of Ireland
Give economic policy speech at Guildhall, London. (A transcript of Abe’s remarks can be found here)

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Don't get MAD, get MAP

ties that bind
Mutual Assured Production: Why Trade Will Limit Conflict Between China and Japan

By Richard Katz, 

editor Oriental Economist
APP member
First appeared in the July/August 2013 edition of Foreign Affairs

Last fall, as the countries escalated their quarrel over an island chain that Japan has controlled for more than a century, many Chinese citizens boycotted Japanese products and took to the streets in anti-Japanese riots. This commotion, at times encouraged by the Chinese government, led the Japanese government to fear that Beijing might exploit Japan’s reliance on China as an export market to squeeze Tokyo into making territorial concessions. Throughout the crisis, Japan has doubted that China would ever try to forcibly seize the islands—barren rocks known in Chinese as the Diaoyu Islands and in Japanese as the Senkaku Islands -- if only because the United States has made it clear that it would come to Japan’s defense. Japanese security experts, however, have suggested that China might try other methods of intimidation, including a prolonged economic boycott.During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union carefully avoided triggering a nuclear war because of the assumption of “mutual assured destruction”: each knew that any such conflict would mean the obliteration of both countries. Today, even though tensions between China and Japan are rising, an economic version of mutual deterrence is preserving the uneasy status quo between the two sides.

But these fears have not materialized, for one simple reason: China needs to buy Japanese products as much as Japan needs to sell them. Many of the high-tech products assembled in and exported from China, often on behalf of American and European firms, use advanced Japanese-made parts. China could not boycott Japan, let alone precipitate an actual conflict, without stymieing the export-fueled economic miracle that underpins Communist Party rule.

For the moment, the combination of economic interdependence and Washington’s commitment to Japan’s defense will likely keep the peace. Still, an accidental clash of armed ships around the islands could lead to an unintended conflict. That is why defense officials from both countries have met with an eye to reducing that particular risk. With no resolution in sight, those who fear an escalation can nonetheless take solace in the fact that China and Japan stand to gain far more from trading than from fighting.

THE TIES THAT BIND
Although China first claimed the Diaoyu/ Senkaku Islands in 1971, it never did much to pursue its claim until recently. On the contrary, in the interests of improving economic and political ties, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka agreed in 1972 to shelve the issue indefinitely. Beijing even stopped Chinese nationalist activists from trying to land on the islands and prevented articles that asserted China’s claim to them from appearing in the Chinese press. In the last few years, however, China has reversed course and started to back up its claims with actions. In 2010, for example, a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese coast guard ship in the waters around the islands. When the coast guard personnel arrested the fishing boat’s captain, Beijing declared that Japan had no jurisdiction in “Chinese territory” and cut off supplies to Japan of vital rare-earth minerals until he was released.

It took until July 2012 for the issue to explode. That month, then Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced that his government intended to buy some of the islets from their private Japanese owner. Noda’s aim was to prevent them from being sold to the right-wing governor of Tokyo, who had revealed plans for the islands that would certainly have provoked China. But Beijing told Noda that it would see even the government’s purchase as an unacceptable change in the status quo. The Noda administration ignored warnings from both Beijing and the U.S. State Department and deluded itself that China would acquiesce to the purchase.

Then came the riots and the boycotts. For several weeks in August and September, Chinese protesters caused a ruckus, damaging Japanese-made cars, vandalizing stores selling Japanese products, and setting a Panasonic factory on fire. The police vacillated between encouraging and suppressing the riots, and some Chinese state media outlets listed Japanese brands to boycott. By the time the dust settled, Japanese firms operating in China had suffered about $120 million in property damage, and for a few months thereafter, sales of Japanese cars fell by approximately 40–50 percent.

The riots have stopped, but the larger conflict shows no signs of fading. China regularly sends armed surveillance boats into the islands’ territorial waters, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry now calls the islands a “core interest,” a term limited to the most sensitive areas regarding China’s sovereignty, such as Taiwan and Tibet. China’s Commerce Ministry has hinted at the possibility of a prolonged boycott to get Tokyo to concede that China has legitimate claims to the islands. It warned last September that Noda’s purchase of the islands would “inevitably affect and damage . . . Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations.”

A boycott would indeed prove disastrous for Japan’s export-dependent economy. From 2002 to 2007, a third of Japan’s GDP growth came from an increase in its trade surplus, and another third came from capital investment, much of which was tied to exports. And China stands at the center of this picture. From 1995 to 2011, increased shipments to China accounted for 45 percent of the overall growth in Japanese exports. Since the crisis erupted last July, however, Japan’s price-adjusted exports to China have fallen by 20 percent, compared with an 11 percent drop in its global exports (as of March).

Japan’s dependence on China helps explain why the new Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has not followed through on the hawkish positions he touted during last December’s election campaign, such as his plan to place personnel and facilities on the Senkakus. Abe knows that his popularity hinges on Japan’s economic recovery, and lest he forget it, Japanese businesses have been urging him to refrain from any provocations while still seeking a resolution that maintains the country’s sovereignty over the islands.

But it is not only Tokyo’s behavior that has been tempered by economic interdependence. This year, Chinese censors have blocked the phrase “Boycott Japan” from Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. During February’s New Year’s celebrations, Beijing banned sales of the popular “Tokyo Big Bang” fireworks, which simulate the burning of the Japanese capital. In late March, China even joined Japan and South Korea in long-anticipated talks aimed at forming a trilateral free-trade agreement.

Meanwhile, Chinese provincial governments, hungry for jobs and tax revenue, keep imploring Japanese companies to expand their operations in China. In February, the city of Chongqing hired the Mitsui Group, a Japanese conglomerate, to develop an industrial park aimed at attracting foreign investment. At a March conference of the Japan-China Economic Association in Beijing, China’s new vice president, Li Yuanchao, may have insisted that the media not photograph him shaking hands with Japan’s top business leaders, but he nevertheless asked those leaders to step up their investments. Even on the national level, China is far more pluralistic than it used to be. The Communist Party–owned Global Times published both pro- and anti-boycott op-eds last fall.

Nor do most Chinese consumers seem interested in a boycott. The Japanese products that have lost the most sales during these latest tensions have been the highly visible ones, which are vulnerable to social pressure. Last fall and winter, sales of the popular cosmetics and skin-care products made by the Japanese company Shiseido tumbled, partly because many customers refrained from sending them as holiday gifts. Some stores temporarily displayed Shiseido products less prominently, but very few stopped carrying them altogether.

The worst-hit Japanese products have been cars, since many were vandalized by hooligans during the riots. But sales are recovering. Last fall, Nissan, the Japanese automaker, offered its Chinese customers its new “Promise for Car Security” program, a guarantee of free repairs for vehicles damaged in anti-Japanese riots. That’s one reason why in March, sales at Nissan dealerships finally rose above the previous year’s levels. And as China’s infamous air pollution has worsened, February sales of air purifiers by Panasonic doubled from the year before, and sales of those made by Daikin quadrupled. Both are Japanese companies.

MADE IN CHINA, WITH HELP FROM JAPAN
Why does China, the world’s largest exporter, so badly need what Japan is selling? Put simply, China’s export-driven economic miracle depends on imports. Around 60-70 percent of the goods China imports from Japan are the machinery and parts needed to make China’s own products. China cannot cut off this flow, or risk disrupting it through conflict, without crippling its economy. That is why, during the height of the island crisis last fall, the same Chinese customs officials who sometimes delayed shipments of Japanese consumer goods let industrial parts pass through.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Happy Birthday Raphael Lemkin



Today, June 24, is the 113th birthday Raphael Lemkin (1900-1959). A linguist, a lawyer, a scholar, he devoted most of his life to making the world understand and recognize a crime so horrific that there had not even been a word for it. In 1944, he gave the world the word, "genocide."

Coming of age in post-World War I Poland, Lemkin was keenly aware of virilent campaigns to wipe out the "other." As a Jewish intellectual he straddled western and eastern traditions, modern and ancient sensibilities. Most important, he experienced long-nurtured prejudices and knew that what Hitler proposed was something quite different than any pogrom the Jews had ever seen.

Lemkin recognized that modern civilized society needed to address not only the crimes committed in war, of one country against another, but also those of mass violence within the sovereign state. He identified two "new crimes"—barbarism (killing civilians of a particular ethnic group because of their membership in that group)—and vandalism (the destruction of the cultural heritage of such groups).

In exile in the United States after 1941, Lemkin carefully collected documents and reports on Nazi rule throughout the growing Third Reich. In 1944, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published Lemkin's Axis Rule in Occupied Europe. His book included an extensive legal analysis of Nazi Germany along with the definition of the term genocide. He said he had created the word by combining the ancient Greek word genos (race, tribe) and the Latin cide (killing). [see video above]

 Lemkin worked hard, and alone, to have have his view of genocide as an offense against international law--against humanity--accepted by the international community. His success was that it was one of the legal bases of the Nuremberg Trials. In 1948, the newly formed United Nations used his new word in its Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, a treaty intended to prevent future genocides. 

Yale Professor Jay Winter in a recent article (June 3, 2013) for the Chronicle of Higher Education, "Prophet Without Honors: Raphael Lemkin helped make genocide illegal. So why haven't you heard of him?", concludes: 

Reading Lemkin's autobiography helps us acknowledge both the significance and the limits of his work. Naming a crime is not the same as eliminating it. That he did not launch a new era immediately, one in which human dignity comes before state sovereignty, is hardly a criticism. The times and the odds were against him. What he offered was a possibility, one to be taken up today or tomorrow, and who can do more than that?
The world was reminded of Lemkin's determination and brillance in 2002 by journalist Samantha Powers in her seminal A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide. In July, she will become the US ambassador to the UN.

This month, Lemkin's unfinished autobiography edited by Donna-Lee Frieze (Center for Jewish History in New York City), Totally Unofficial was published by Yale University Press.

Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand are not a party to the Genocide Convention. Japan is the only G8 country that is not.



Key writings of Raphael Lemkin on Genocide.

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Monday in Washington

THE ENDURING ALLIANCE: CELEBRATING THE60TH ANNIVERSARY OF ROK-US RELATIONS. 6/24, 9:00am-6:40pm, 6/25, 9:00am-6:00pm. Sponsor: Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Speakers: Hahm Chaibong, Asan Institute; Burwell B. Bell, Former Commander, US Forces Korea; Han Sung-Joo, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, ROK; Robert Garcia, Former US Representative, D-NY; Park Jin, Former Member, National Assembly, ROK; John Warner, Former US Senator, R-VA; David Sanger, The New York Times; Graham Allison, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Kim Sung-han, Former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, ROK; Gary Samore, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Walter Sharp, Former Commander, US Forces Korea; Yu Myung Hwan, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, ROK; Choi Kang, Asan Institute, Kil Jeong Woo, National Assembly, ROK; Lee Chung Min, Yonsei University; Mark Minton, Korea Society; Douglas Paal, Carnegie; Paul Wolfowitz, Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense; David Rennie, The Economist; Richard Bush, Brookings; Kurt Campbell, Asia Group, LLC; Joe Lieberman, Former US Senator, I-CT; Christopher Hill, University of Denver; Thomas C. Hubbard, McLarty Associates; J. James Kim, Asan Institute; Charlie Cook, The Cook Political Report; Kim Jiyoon, Asan Institute; Bruce Klingner, Heritage; William Tobey, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Shin Chang-Hoon, Asan Institute; Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings; Bennett Ramberg, Foreign Policy Consultant, Writer; Yamaguchi Noboru, National Defense Academy of Japan; Baek Buhm-Suk, Asan Institute; Roberta Cohen, Brookings; Frank Jannuzi, Amnesty International USA; Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economic; Walter Lohman, Heritage; Michael Auslin, AEI; Bong Youngshik, Asan Institute; Nishino Junya, Keio University; Thomas Christensen, Princeton University; Bonnie Glaser, CSIS; Gilbert Rozman, Princeton University; Zhao Quansheng, American University.

CYBER SECURITY AND NETWORK DEFENSE CONFERENCE. 6/24-26, 8:30am. Sponsor: Institute for Defense and Government Advancement (IDGA). Speakers: Capt. Joshua Dixon, project officer for technology transition, Marine Corps; Greg Wilshusen, Director of information technology, Government Accountability Office; Matthew Scholl, Deputy Division Chief of Computer Security, National Institute of Standards and Technology.

BLACK CODE: INSIDE THE BATTLE FOR CYBERSPACE. 6/24, 10:00am-Noon. Sponsor: National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Speakers: Ronald J. Deibert, Author, Director, Canada Centre for Global Security Studies and the Citizen Lab, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto; Leslie Harris, President and CEO, Center for Democracy and Technology; Harvey Rishikof, Chair of the Advisory Committee, American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security.

SCIENCE LITERACY: BRIDGING THE CHASM BETWEEN SCIENCEAND PUBLIC POLICY. 6/24, 11:30am-12:30pm. Sponsor: Library of Congress. Speaker: Mark Frankel, Director of the Scientific Responsibility, Human Rights and Law Program, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

U.S. ECONOMIC STATECRAFT IN SOUTH ASIA. 6/24, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Center for American Progress (CAP). Speakers: Parag Saxena, Founding General Partner and CEO, New Silk Route Partners; Marc Grossman, Vice Chairman, Cohen Group and former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan; William Byrd, Afghanistan Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Caroline Wadhams, Senior Fellow, CAP; Rich Verma, Senior Fellow, CAP; Neera Tanden, President, CAP.

WOMEN AS A DRIVER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 6/24, Noon-2:30pm. Sponsor: Peterson Institute for International Economics (IIE). Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Chief Economist, State Department; Minouche Shafik, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; Carly Fiorina, former chairman and CEO, Hewlett-Packard, founder, One Woman Initiative.

AFGHANISTAN BEYOND THE HEADLINES: WOMEN, YOUTH, AND THE WAR. 6/24, Noon-5:00pm. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speakers: Ayscha Hamdani, former Adviser to the European Union (EU) and NATO officials in Afghanistan; Richard Cincotta, Political Demography Consultant of the Environmental Change and Security Program and demographer-in-residence at the Stimson Center; Razia Jan, Founder, Razia's Ray of Hope Foundation; Maiwand Rahyab, Counterpart International's deputy director for Afghanistan; Mary Ellen Stanon, Senior Maternal Health Adviser for the USAID; Karen Hardee, Senior Fellow, Futures Group; Ayscha Hamdani, independent international affairs consultant and former special adviser and Chief of Staff, European Union special representative, EU Delegation to Afghanistan; Ratha Loganthan, Senior Health Adviser for Afghanistan, USAID Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs; Linda Bartlett, Associate Scientist, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Palwasha Kakar, Director, Women's Empowerment and Development for Afghanistan, Asia Foundation.

THE CHINESE CYBER CHALLENGE: HOW TO ADDRESS THE GROWING THREAT. 6/24, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Atlantic Council, Scowcroft Center on International Security. Speakers: Dmitri Alperovitch, Co-Founder and CTO, CrowdStrike, Inc.; Dr. James Mulvenon, Vice President, Intelligence Division, Director, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, Defense Group, Inc (DGI); Dr. Gregory J. Rattray, CEO and Founding Partner, Delta Risk LLC; Jason Healey, Director, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Atlantic Council.

THE SECRETARY: TRAVELS WITH HILLARY CLINTON FROM BEIRUT TO THE HEART OF AMERICAN POWER. 6/24, 6:00-7:15pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Middle East Institute, Oman Library. Speaker: Kim Ghattas, Author, State Department Correspondent, BBC.