Asia Policy Events, Monday October 27, 2025

GOING GLOBAL: JAPANESE ENTREPRENEURS BREAKING NEW GROUND. 10/27, 6:00-8:00pm (JST), 5:00-7:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Asia Society Japan. Speakers: Shun Matsuzaka, Asia 21 Class of 2024 Fellow; Co-Founder, TOY EIGHT; Shozo Kamiya, Founder and CEO, I'mbesideyou Inc.

CARIBBEAN BUILDUP: A RENEWED FOCUS ON COUNTERNARCOTICS AND HEMISPHERIC SECURITY? 10/27, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Americas Program, CSIS. Speakers: Ryan C. Berg, Director, Americas Program, CSIS; Juan Cruz, Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Americas Program and Director, Argentina-U.S. Strategic Forum, CSIS; Mark F. Cancian, Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department, CSIS.

CHINA–ASEAN AT A CROSSROADS: NAVIGATING REGIONAL FUTURES IN AN ERA OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION. 10/27, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Asia Society Policy Institute. Speakers: Gita Wirjawan, Former Minister of Trade, Indonesia, Visiting Scholar, Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford; Bert Hofman, Non-Resident Honorary Senior Fellow, Center for China Analysis (CCA), Asia Society Policy Institute; Brian Wong, Non-Resident Honorary Fellow, CCA HKU-100 Assistant Professor in Philosophy, University of Hong Kong (HKU); Kevin Zongzhe Li, Affiliated Researcher, CCA.

BARGAINING WITH BEIJING: THE POLITICS OF CHINESE INVESTMENT IN AMERICA. 10/27, 11:30am-12:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Johns Hopkins. Speakers: Jeremy Lee Wallace, Political Scientist, A. Doak Barnett Professor of China Studies, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Kate Logan, Director, China Climate Hub and Climate Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute; Ted Fertik, Vice President, Manufacturing and Industrial Policy, Bluegreen Alliance.

JAPAN’S CORPORATE GOVERNANCE TRANSFORMED? FINANCIALIZATION AND CORPORATE PERFORMANCE IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. 10/27, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Weatherhead, Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University. Speaker: Hideaki Miyajima, Professor, Faculty of Commerce; Executive Vice President, Waseda University; Moderator: Christina Davis, Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Japanese Politics, Department of Government; Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Harvard University.

JAPAN’S POLITICAL UPHEAVAL AND ITS IMPACT ON FOREIGN POLICY. 10/27, Noon-2:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Georgetown University. Speakers: Takashi Imai, Washington Bureau Chief, Yomiuri Shimbun; Ken Moriyasu, Washington Correspondent, Nikkei Asia; Sheila A. Smith, John E. Merow Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ROLLERCOASTER. 10/27, 1:30-3:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Harvard University. Speaker: Ariel E. Levite, Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy and Technology and International Affairs, Carnegie.

UNPACKING RECENT SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL. 10/27, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University. Speakers: Richard Nephew, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA; Daniel Sternoff,  Senior Fellow, Head of Corporate Partnership Strategy, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA; Tatiana Mitrova, Global Fellow, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA.

SLOW TECH DRAGON: BALANCED ASSESSMENT OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY. 10/27, 5:00-7:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Weatherhead East Asian Institute; Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business; China and the World Program, Columbia University. Speaker: Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS; Moderator: Thomas J. Christensen, James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations; Director, China and the World Program, Columbia University.

BOOK TALK: BREAKNECK: CHINA'S QUEST TO ENGINEER THE FUTURE. 10/27, 4:00-5:30pm (PDT), 7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hoover History Lab. Speaker: author, Dan Wang, research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3Jw3SbM 

Revisionist Japan returns to Asia

Gathering right-wing storm in Tokyo shadows Seoul’s APEC moment

Takaichi April 2015

Takaichi-led Japan will be less inclined to confront historical issues, putting a potential brake on improving relations with S Korea

by Daniel Sneider, lecturer in East Asian studies at Stanford University, non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, and APP Member
First Published October 17, 2025 on the Peninsula Blog of the Korea Economic Institute.

The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit was intended to showcase South Korea’s claim to leadership on a range of issues from free trade, digital and artificial intelligence, and democracy. Instead, the Lee Jae Myung administration finds itself beset by shifting geopolitical winds.

A potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, or perhaps a three-way session including North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, will likely overshadow anything else that occurs at APEC. Elsewhere, the unsteady Gaza armistice and a renewed attempt by Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin to forge a Ukraine deal continue to dominate headlines.

There is also the imminent shift in leadership in neighboring Japan. Despite efforts to maintain the momentum of improvement in South Korea-Japan relations, embraced by Lee and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, South Korea faces the prospect of a new Japanese government less inclined to confront historical issues.

Japan’s unstable politics
Japan is experiencing a level of political instability and uncertainty not seen since the early 1990s, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered electoral setbacks, splintering defections, and a loss of power.

Following the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba, the LDP somewhat surprisingly elected hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi to lead the party and form a new government as prime minister.

But Takaichi’s path to power has been anything but smooth. A deep loyalist to the late Shinzo Abe, she is mistrusted within her own party and by most of the opposition. Her victory inspired the Buddhist party Komeito to end its quarter-century coalition with the LDP, citing Takaichi’s apparent alignment with anti-reformers and unrepentant views on Japan’s wartime and colonial history, symbolized by regular visits to the Yasukuni Shrine.

The LDP lacks a majority in either house of the legislature, so it had to form an alliance to garner enough seats to form a minority government. Ishiba governed this way for the last several months.

The backlash against Takaichi prompted the main opposition parties – the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party For the People and Ishin no Kai, also known as the Japan Innovation Party – to consider forming a government. The three parties combined would have been able to name a prime minister. The Komeito might also have back such a coalition.

That was not to be. Instead, Takaichi and the LDP have lured one of those three, Nippon Ishin no Kai, the most conservative of the opposition parties, into a new coalition. Together, they are just two seats short of a majority in the lower house and five seats short in the upper house.

Takaichi also met separately with Sohei Kamiya, leader of the ultra-right-wing nationalist Sanseito party – which holds a small but significant number of seats – to discuss cooperation. A parliamentary vote is expected to occur on October 21.

A right-wing Japanese government
The prospect of Takaichi as Japan’s next prime minister alarmed observers in South Korea even ahead of the LDP intra-party vote.

“Takaichi is a disaster for Korea,” a former South Korean ambassador to Japan told this writer at that time. Former Ambassador to Japan Shin Kak-soo similarly warned against the “election of a hawkish PM who might derail the restoration process of Korea-Japan relations.”

Some have held out the hope that Takaichi would moderate her views for the sake of pragmatism, emulating the way Abe governed. There have been reports she will name Abe’s foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, to the same post.

She has also been advised to stay away from Yasukuni. Abe was the last sitting prime minister to visit the shrine, twelve years ago.

“I will make a decision on how to pay my respects and pray for peace at an appropriate time and in an appropriate manner,” Takaichi told reporters after winning the LDP vote earlier this month.

But in the LDP race last year, Takaichi made it clear she would visit Yasukuni, which she has done regularly as a cabinet minister. “At an appropriate time, I want to visit properly, calmly and as I usually do,” she said.

In a defiant statement at a symposium in 2022 hosted by the shrine authorities, she declared: “Stopping visits midway or acting half-heartedly only emboldens the other side. No matter how much criticism I face, I will continue calmly and matter-of-factly.”

This is only a small window into Takaichi’s view of Japan’s wartime past and cynicism toward pacifism. In a recent book based on a series of dialogues with right-wing commentator Yoshiko Sakurai, she argued that, “If a nation succumbs to aggression and loses sovereignty, it loses its existence as a nation – language, culture, and territory will be all be taken away.” She also warned that, “Other nations will not come to the aid of a country that lacks the will and courage to defend itself.”

In this spirit, Takaichi is a vocal advocate of assertive patriotism, both in defense policy and historical memory. Japan’s problem, she argues, is not what it did in World War II but that it lost.

“If Japan had won the war, Japan probably wouldn’t be blamed by anyone now, and those who started the war would be heroes,” she said. “When victors judge the vanquished, it creates an enduring misery of defeat and hardship for future generations. Yet I believe it is wrong for Japanese people to apologize endlessly simply for being born Japanese.”

The alliance with Ishin no Kai is likely to be amenable to these views. The party is primarily focused on domestic issues – specifically, the interests of the Kansai region, centered on Osaka, where it is based. But to the extent it has dealt with these questions, the party leans revisionist.

More radical is Sanseito, which takes an extreme nationalist stance and frequently discusses Japan’s war period.

Ishiba’s farewell address
Prime Minister Ishiba has long opposed this wing of the LDP.  The triumph of Takaichi and the prospects of a conservative nationalist government clearly concern him. On October 10, Ishiba delivered a lengthy statement on the eightieth anniversary of the end of the war, which contained unmistakable warnings against the shift to the right seen not only in Japan but beyond.

Ishiba wrote that Japan’s defeat had been inevitable. He asked rhetorically, “Why did the leadership of the government and the military plunge headlong into a reckless war that resulted in the loss of so many innocent lives, both at home and abroad, and why were they not able to make decisions to avoid the war?”

The answer, he continued, was a failure of civilians to control the military, erosion of democracy, violent extremism, nationalism and a failure to understand the world outside Japan’s borders.

Ishiba drew lessons from this past for the present, lessons that are clearly aimed at the current shift to the right. “Healthy discourse, including mission-driven journalism is necessary. During the war, the media stirred up public opinion, ultimately leading the nation into a reckless war. We must not fall into excessive commercialism, or tolerate narrow-minded nationalism, discrimination or xenophobia.”

Japan, he cautioned, must learn from history. “What matters most are the courage and integrity to squarely face the past, classical liberalism that values the tolerance of listening humbly to the arguments of others, and a healthy and robust democracy.”

Ishiba’s successor will face a significant challenge in not undermining the progress made in South Korea-Japan relations and in addressing the geopolitical shifts that are unfolding. That same challenge faces President Lee, during and after the APEC gathering.

In the best of circumstances, the South Korean and Japanese leaders will join hands and lean on each other, as their predecessors have done over the last few years, and confront ongoing geopolitical challenges together.

RETHINKING AMERICA’S NORTH KOREA STRATEGY: NEW BOOK

 October 28, 2025 Release

Yale University Press, 560 pages

PURCHASE BOOK

October 22:. Carnegie Endowment for International  Peace, Washington, DC, 2:00-2:45pm (EDT), HYBRID

October 28: The Henry L. Stimson Center, Co-sponsored by the Institute for Science and International Security and the National Committee for North Korea, Washington, DC, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID

October 30: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School, Harvard University, 10:00 -11:30am (EDT), HYBRID

November 5: Program on Science and International Security, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, By Invitation 

November 6: National Committee on American Foreign Policy, New York, NY, 6:00-8:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY 

November 7: Center for Korean Research, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, 1:00-2:30pm (EST), HYBRID

November 13: Korea-Pacific Program, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS), San Diego, CA, 5:00-6:00pm (PST), VIRTUAL

November 18: Center for International Security and Arms Control, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), Stanford University, Stanford,  CA, Noon-1:15pm (PST), HYBRID

November 19: Commonwealth Club/World Affairs Council, San Francisco, CA, 5:30-6:30pm (PST), HYBRID

November 20: Pacific Council for International Policy, Los Angeles, CA, 6:00pm (PST), IN PERSON ONLY

.
December 8: National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, WA, TBA.

December 10: Pacific Forum, Honolulu, HI,  TBA
Honolulu International Forum, Honolulu, HI, By Invitation

December 11: East-West Center, Honolulu, HI, TBA

For almost four decades, the United States has tried to stop North Korea’s attempts to build nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. In Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea Joel S. Wit, a former State Department official, takes readers to the front lines of nuclear negotiations, fierce policy debates and secret diplomatic gambits, recounting how perilously close the United States and North Korea have come, on various occasions, to nuclear confrontation. 

Based on more than 300 interviews with officials in Washington, Beijing, and Seoul, as well as with the author’s contacts in Pyongyang, this book chronicles how decades of pursuing North Korean nuclear disarmament have played out. 

Wit points to Barack Obama and Donald Trump as the two presidents most responsible for the failure to halt North Korea’s march to build a nuclear arsenal, since it was under their successive tenures that Pyongyang acquired the ability to threaten every city in North America. Wit also offers an unparalleled portrait of Kim Jong Un that refutes his caricature as impulsive and illogical. Like his father and his grandfather, Kim is a ruthless despot but also a canny and informed negotiator determined to secure his dictatorship’s future by exploring diplomacy or, failing that, by building a nuclear arsenal.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Joel S. Wit is a distinguished fellow in Asian Security Studies at the Henry L. Stimson Center and a former U.S. State Department official. He is the coauthor with with Robert Gallucci and Daniel Poneman of Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis, the winner of the American Academy of Diplomacy’s 2004 prize for best book. He received his M.I.A. from Columbia University in 1979 and his B.A. from Bucknell University in 1976. He is a member of Asia Policy Point.

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 20, 2025

JAPAN'S GROWING INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE PARTNERSHIPS. 10/20, 6:30-8:00pm (JST), 5:30-7:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: ICAS, Temple University Japan Campus, Tokyo. Speaker: Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, Faculty Lecturer, Department of Political Science and International Affairs, Temple University Japan, Tokyo; Moderator: Kyle Cleveland, ICAS Co-director, Temple University, Japan Campus.

THE FUTURE OF UK AIR POWER. 10/20, 1:00-2:00pm (BST), 8:00-9:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). Speaker: Air Vice-Marshal James Beck, Director Capabilities and Programmes, RAF.

*POSTPONED SUBMARINES IN AN ERA OF RENEWED GREAT POWER COMPETITION. 10/20, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Vice Admiral Robert M. “Rob” Gaucher, Commander, Naval Submarine Forces, Commander, Submarine Force, U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Commander, Allied Submarine Command; Rear Admiral Raymond A. Spicer, USN (Ret.), Chief Executive Officer/Publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; Seth G. Jones, President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair.

TRUMP’S NEW EXPANSIONISM. 10/20, Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy. Speakers: Ravi Agrawal, Editor in chief, Foreign Policy; Greg Grandin, History Professor, Yale University, Author, “America, América: A New History of the New World.”

MEDIATING POWER: HOW HYBRID MEDIA DISRUPTS ELITE MESSAGING IN JAPAN. 10/20, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Harvard University. Speaker: Colin Moreshead, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard University.

UNPACKING THE SAUDI-PAKISTANI MUTUAL DEFENSE AGREEMENT. 10/20, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI). Speakers: (Ret.) Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan, Lecturer, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School; Abdulaziz Al Sager, Founder/Chair, Gulf Research Center.

A "NEW MARSHALL PLAN” - A MODEL FOR POST-CONFLICT UKRAINE? 10/20, 3:30-5:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: School of International Service, American University. Speakers: Olga Khakova, Deputy Director for European Energy Security, Global Energy Center (GEC), Atlantic Council; Benn Steil, Senior Fellow/Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Korea's Most Important Province

CONFERENCE

Gyeonggi Province

The Engine that Leads the U.S.–Korea Partnership

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

9:00am to 4:30pm (EDT)

Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill

400 New Jersey Avenue NW

Washington, DC 20001

Sponsored by

Center for the National Interest ● Gyeonggi Research Institute

Korean Association for Policy Studies ● Reischauer Center ,Johns Hopkins SAIS

Highlighting the Gyeonggi Province's leadership in the multi-dimensional partnership between the U.S. and South Korea. The Province is the country's hub for advanced technology R&D and manufacturing. U.S. Army Garrison Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. military installation outside the continental United States is also located in the Province.

AGENDA

Four sessions covering Renewable energy ● Tariff policy ●

Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula ● Advanced technology and biotechnology

REGISTER HERE

SPEAKERS INCLUDE

• Governor Dong Yeon Kim of Gyeonggi Province, former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister

• Members of the Korea Caucus on Capitol Hill

• Paul Saunders, President, Center for the National Interest

• Seong Cheon Kang, President, Gyeonggi Research Institute

• Hyung Jun Park, President, Korean Association for Policy Studies

• Kent Calder, Director, Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS

• Rob Atkinson, President of Information, Technology and Innovation Foundation 

• Taek Goo Kang, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute

• Christian Whiton, Senior Fellow, Center for the National Interest

• Byung Won Woo, Professor of International Relations, Yonsei University

• Jill Homan, Deputy Director of Trade & Economy Policy, America First Policy Institute

• Yun Young Jo, Professor of Political Science, Chung Ang University

• Sydney Seiler, Senior Adviser, the Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Sang Kyu Kim, Senior Fellow, Gyeonggi Research Institute 

• Robert Gallucci, Distinguished Professor in Practice of Diplomacy at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service

• Seok Hwan Lee, Professor of Public Administration, Kookmin University

• Mark Esser, President of Paul and Diane Manning Institute of Biotechnology, the University of Virginia and former Vice President of AstraZeneca

• Joseph Kim, President of Agenta and former CEO and President of Inovio

Uncertainty in Japanese Politics

Komeito Dissolves the Leading Coalition

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 13, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

NOTE: If you look forward to these essays, please subscribe to Asia Policy Point's weekly Asia Policy Calendar. Subscription, only $100/year, includes additional reports on Japanese politics and history.

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 13, 2025

COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY IN U.S.

IMPACT OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS ON CAMBODIA, LAOS AND VIETNAM. 10/13, 9:00-10:30am (SGT), 10/12, 9:00-10:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. Speakers: Dr. Milan Thomas, Country Economist, Cambodia Resident Mission, ADB; Soulinthone Leuangkhamsing, Principal Economics Officer, Lao PDR Resident Mission, ADB; Prof. Dao Ngoc Tien, Vice President, Vietnam’s Foreign Trade University (FTU).

THE NINE-FINGERED PARTY: THE STRANGE HISTORY OF THE YAKUZA IN JAPANESE POLITICS. 10/13, 5:15-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Center for East Asian Studies, Univ. of Pennsylvania. Speaker: Jake Adelstein, Investigative Journalist, Author, The Devil Takes Bitcoin: Cryptocurrency Crimes and the Japanese Connection (Releases Oct 14). PURCHASE BOOK. ZOOM LINK UPON REGISTRATION.

Takaichi Becomes the First Female LDP President

Can she become prime minister?

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.
October 6, 2025

Former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4, making her the first female president in the party’s history. As the race turned to be a match between pro- and anti-Ishiba blocs, Takaichi achieved a sweeping victory, assembling conservative votes within the LDP – largely among general party members. The point now is whether she can mitigate division in the party and restore the LDP’s historical majority in both Houses of the Diet.

In the election, Takaichi showed her strength among rank-and-file voters of the party. The first-round score of each candidate was 183 (64 from lawmakers and 119 general party members) for Takaichi, 164 (80 and 84) for Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi, 134 (72 and 62) for Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 59 (44 and 15) for former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, and 49 (34 and 15) for former LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi.

Because no candidate achieved a simple majority, the election went to a run-off between Takaichi and Koizumi. Takaichi received 185 votes (149 from lawmakers and 36 from party branches), and Koizumi 156 (145 and 11). Before the election Takaichi seemed popular among the rank-and-file and Koizumi had strength among lawmakers. The election itself showed that Takaichi dominated both groups.

One reason for Takaichi’s victory was a fundamental concern of rank-and-file members who realized that LDP support had eroded everywhere in Japan with the advance of conservative parties such as Sanseito. These parties significantly increased their seats in July’s Upper House election. Trying to regain conservative votes that had left the LDP, the general members hoped to restore the conservative cause of the party by voting for the right-wing Takaichi.

Another critical element in Takaichi’s favor was a maneuver by a heavyweight in the party, former prime minister Taro Aso. He leads only one faction in the LDP, but it was enough. He instructed his allies to vote in the run-off for the candidate who had received the largest number of votes from general party members in the first round. The faction members knew this meant voting for Takaichi because it had become obvious before the election that she was leading Koizumi among general members.

The victory of Takaichi, in short, was based on separate motivations of the rank and file and the Aso faction members in the Diet. The right-leaning sentiment of LDP general members was to defend the party from surges of new conservative movements throughout Japan. Lawmakers represented by Aso hoped to maintain the traditional political arrangement in which factions, once rejected by public voters, again dominate power in the party.

Takaichi was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time as an independent in 1993. She joined the LDP in 1996, after a short affiliation with the later-dissolved New Frontier Party (Shinshin-tou). She became a member of the Seiwakai Policy Study Group, a faction led by Yoshiro Mori, Jun-ichiro Koizumi and eventually by Shinzo Abe. Takaichi eventually became chair of the LDP Policy Research Council, Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, and Minister on Economic Security.

Known as a conservative lawmaker close to Abe, Takaichi repeatedly visited the Yasukuni Shrine on its festival days and the August 15 Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead. She has argued forcefully for amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan. Takaichi also advocates mobilization of financial policies to inject substantial amounts of government money into the market, i.e., deficit spending. Such spending reflects the economic policies of the Abe administration known as Abenomics. She has also spoken favorably of the need to regulate foreigners in Japan, a position that attracts the xenophobic sentiment of conservative voters.

Takaichi is better known as a promotor of a hawkish agenda than as an advocate for women’s rights – notwithstanding that she is likely to become the first woman prime minister. She opposes separate surnames and instead calls for expanded use of nicknames. She wholeheartedly supports primogeniture, a doctrine under which a male Emperor is succeeded by a male heir in the male line belonging to the imperial lineage. This doctrine rules out the possibility of female emperor.

“I will make this party with the participation of everyone, bringing all generations together,” said Takaichi in her press conference right after the LDP presidential election. Her first assignment as the LDP president is to reunite the party which was divided between members who favored Ishiba and those who opposed him. However, it is likely that figures from anti-Ishiba groups will populate her administration.

The fact that Aso’s endorsement ensured Takaichi’s election means that she will be beholden to him. Press reports indicate that Takaichi is considering picking Shun-ichi Suzuki, a former Minister of Finance, a ranking member of the Aso faction and his brother-in-law, as Secretary General of the LDP. The appointment is probably a show of gratitude to Aso.

To bolster the right wing of her administration, Takaichi reportedly plans to pick Takayuki Kobayashi, one of the candidates in the presidential election, as chair of the LDP Policy Research Council. She will likely also appoint Haruko Arimura for the chairwoman of General Council and Keiji Furuya for the head of Election Committee, both well-known ultra conservative. Her selections for LDP board members are overwhelmingly hawkish.

It is also said that she plans to appoint Minoru Kihara, a former member of the Motegi Faction, as Chief Cabinet Secretary of her Cabinet. Takaichi is said to be considering inclusion of Motegi, Koizumi, and Hayashi, three of her contenders in the presidential election into her cabinet.

The appointments may also represent the restoration of factions that were disbanded in the aftermath of the scandal involving the factions’ illegal management of political funds. She is appointing Koichi Hagiuda, one of the recipients of secret funds from former Abe faction, to LDP Executive Acting Secretary General. Although this slush fund scandal helped cause the LDP’s serious defeats in the national elections in 2024 and 2025, Takaichi has declared that she would distribute important posts in her administration to the lawmakers who had been involved in the scandal. She scarcely mentioned reform of the LDP in her presidential campaign.

Takaichi is likely to be elected the first female prime minister to succeed Shigeru Ishiba in the extraordinary session of the Diet in mid-October. The leading coalition of the LDP and Komeito does not have a majority in either House, meaning that Takaichi will have to attract votes from outside these two parties. However, the opposition parties are too divided to settle on a candidate for prime minister from within their own ranks. Even so, Takaichi will have to find a way to work with the opposition if the Takaichi Cabinet is to implement her policies.

Although Takaichi thinks that her administration should be based on the LDP’s traditional partnership with Komeito, this peace-focused party opposes many of Takaichi’s hawkish views. Its Chief Representative, Tetsuo Saito, has indicated that Takaichi must modify four policies to maintain the leading coalition: visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, given their adverse effect on diplomacy; fair treatment of foreigners in Japan; stricter regulation of campaign contributions by companies and organizations; and expansion of the LDP-Komeito coalition.

Takaichi’s victory was a surprise to the opposition parties, and there appear to be differing results. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has focused on implementation of their economic policy, and the Takaichi administration expects to build a close relationship with them. It was reported that the DPP would be the first target for Takaichi to formulate a new coalition

Other parties may be less successful. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) has not been able to cooperate with Komeito in single-seat districts in Osaka. Given its hope to amend security legislation in 2015, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is unlikely to be a coalition partner of the LDP. The CDPJ nevertheless favors a refundable tax credit that is a priority for Takaichi.

In diplomacy, Takaichi’s first test is likely to be U.S. President Donald Trump. He is expected to make a state visit to Tokyo later this October (reportedly 27-29). Frustrated with Trump’s imposition of a 15 percent tariff on Japanese products, Takaichi previously has suggested renegotiating the tariff agreement. Observers on both sides of the Pacific will watch with great interest whether Takaichi can build a personal relationship with Trump that benefits Japan.

Improving, or at least maintaining, relations with neighboring countries are another vital task for Takaichi. Her continuing visits to the Yasukuni Shrine have caused China to accuse Japan of indifference to historical issues. Her political mentor, Abe, undermined Japan’s relationship with the Republic of Korea by encouraging a revisionist history of the former colony. Takaichi’s like-minded historical views may similarly affect Japan’s relationship with Korea, which had improved in the Ishiba administration.

Whether Takaichi can revive the LDP while managing diplomacy toward both Japan’s neighbors and the U.S. is her challenge.

The Demise of the LDP

   "Takaichi's victory is going to hasten the decline and the eventual collapse of the LDP

...It's not if, but just when. It could happen fairly soon."

PRESS CONFERENCE

Japan's Next Prime Minister

Gerald L. Curtis

Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University

Monday, October 6, 2025

Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan

Asia Policy Events, Monday October 6, 2025

PRESS CONFERENCE: JAPAN'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER. 10/6, 11:00am-Noon (JST), 10/5 10:00pm (EDT). HYBRID. Sponsor: Foreign Correspondents Club Japan. Speaker: Gerald L. Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Columbia University.

NAVIGATING TROUBLED WATERS: INSIGHTS AND PROSPECTS FROM THE MANILA DIALOGUES. 10/6, 7:00pm (JST), 6:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies. Speaker: Dr. Bich Tran, Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

AFTER ISHIBA: WHAT’S NEXT FOR JAPANESE POLITICS? 10/6, 8:00-8:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair; Nicholas Szechenyi, Vice President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Senior Fellow, Japan Chair.

BETWEEN PEACE AND WAR: EXPLORING CHINA’S GRAY ZONE STRATEGY TOWARD TAIWAN. 10/6, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Kelly A. Grieco, Senior Fellow, Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center; James Siebens, Fellow, Strategic Foresight Hub, Stimson Center; Pam Kennedy, Deputy Director, China Program, Stimson Center (Moderator). 

RESPONDING TO TRUMP’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY PARADIGM. 10/6, 9:00-11:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, Korea Chair, CSIS; Max Bergmann, Director,  Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies, CSIS; Oge Onubogu, Director/Senior Fellow, Africa Program, CSIS; Mona Yacoubian, Director/Senior Adviser, Middle East Program, CSIS; Charles Edel, Senior Adviser, Australia Chair, CSIS; Kristi Govella, Senior Adviser, Japan Chair, CSIS. 

‘‘SENSING THE CLIMATE”: HOW DO INTERNATIONAL POLICY MAKERS ‘SENSE’ NATURE? 10/6, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Johns Hopkins University SAIS. Speakers: Joanne Yao, Reader in International Relations, Queen Mary, University of London and Ludovica Chiussi Curzi; Senior Assistant Professor in Public International Law, University of Bologna.

BIG DEAL, SMALL DEAL, OR NO DEAL? POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF A TRUMP-XI SUMMIT. 10/6, 12:30-1:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Thomas J. Christensen, Pritzker Chair, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics; Henrietta Levin, Senior Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies; Bonny Lin, Senior Adviser, Director, China Power Project; Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director/Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics.

A STRATEGY FOR BIOSECURITY VICTORY. 10/6, 12:30-2:00pm (PDT), 3:30-5:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hoover Institution. Speakers: Drew Endy, Science Fellow and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Rear Admiral Kenneth Bernard, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Emily Clise Tully, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution.

COOPERATION AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF INDO-PACIFIC TUNA FISHERIES. 10/6, 2:30-5:00pm (JST), 1:30-4:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Speakers: Transform Aqorau, Vice-Chancellor, Solomon Islands National University; Hussain Sinan, Director, General Fisheries and Ocean Resources Management, Maldives Ministry of Fisheries and Ocean Resources; Quentin Hanich, Fisheries Governance Program Leader, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS). 

EXPLORING THE ART OF MANGA. 10/6, 5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Japanese Art Society of America (JASA). Speaker: author Nicole Coolidge Rousmaniere, Director, Sainsbury Institute for the Study of Japanese Arts and Cultures, Professor of Japanese Art and Culture, University of East Anglia, U.K. PURCHASE BOOK

REPRESENTING TAIWAN IN DC: HOW TAIWANESE AMERICANS CAN BRIDGE CULTURE AND POLICY. 10/6, 5:30-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Global Taiwan Institute. Speakers: Tim Chng, Principal Software Developer, Yahoo Inc.; Adam Peir, Data Analyst, Former Board Member/President, Taiwanese American Professionals, Director of Civic Engagement, Taiwanese American Citizens League; David Tang, Principal, Washington DC Taiwanese School.

REVISITING THE JONES ACT: FROM PROTECTIONISM TO PARTNERSHIP. 10/6, 6:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Korea Society. Speaker: Colin Grabow, Associate Director, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, Cato Institute.