Uncertainty in Japanese Politics

Komeito Dissolves the Leading Coalition

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
October 13, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

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Komeito, the junior partner of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan’s leading coalition, notified the LDP on October 10 that it would leave the coalition. Komeito’s decision dissolves the 26-year-old partnership between the two parties. The Chief Representative of Komeito, Tetsuo Saito, emphasized in a meeting with LDP President Sanae Takaichi that the main reason was the LDP’s reluctance to reform the political funding system.

“The LDP always says consider, consider and consider,” said Saito in his press conference, frustrated with the LDP’s indifference to the reform. Dissolution of the coalition can be likened to a divorce of an old married couple. Takaichi took the coalition with Komeito for granted. That misconception took its toll on the LDP.

After Takaichi was elected LDP president on October 4, Saito had three meetings with her. In the first meeting, he laid out three conditions for maintaining the leading coalition: the regulation of political donations from companies and organizations, ending Takaichi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine (at least during her term as prime minister), and reasonable treatment of immigrants and foreign visitors to Japan.

The two party leaders mostly settled their differences on the Yasukuni visits and the status of foreigners but not on political donations. Saito demanded in his second meeting that Takaichi approve a bill to amend the Political Funds Control Act that Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) had submitted to the Diet in March 2025. The amendments would allow companies and organizations to make contributions only at a party’s headquarters and at a single party branch in each prefecture. The LDP has about 7,800 branches. If the bill passes the Diet, nearly all those branches could not lawfully receive political donations.

At the third meeting, Saito asked for an immediate answer to Komeito’s reform bill, but Takaichi told him that the LDP needed a certain period to consider it. She gave no hint that the party would approve it. Realizing that the LDP was still unwilling to reform political funding, Saito decided that Komeito would break from the leading coalition.

Takaichi’s surprise can be seen in her question to Saito. “If the president were not me, wouldn’t you leave the coalition?” she asked. Maybe she meant, “Do you leave me, because you do not love me?” In any event, “It does not matter who would have been the LDP president,” Saito replied. Takaichi could not understand why Komeito was leaving the LDP even at the last moment of the long-time coalition.

It is likely that Takaichi did not recognize how important the issue of political funds control was to Komeito. It has been perhaps the most crucial issue recently for the party.  Komeito identifies itself as a “clean party,” from the beginning of its leading coalition relationship with the LDP 26 years ago.

When Komeito joined the leading coalition with the LDP in October 1999, the agreement stated that “The LDP will propose it [a prohibition on contributions from corporations and organizations] and conclude through discussion until next extraordinary session of the Diet.” However, the LDP failed to do so for 26 years.

Komeito has believed that the party’s recent setbacks in the national elections were caused by voters’ dim view of the LDP’s mismanagement of political funds, of which the slush fund scandal is the most recent example. Supporters of Komeito, who, because of the coalition, campaigned for LDP candidates in local districts complained Komeito leaders that they were having to explain the other party’s (the LDP’s) corruption.

Komeito lost 16 percent of their votes in the proportional districts in both the Lower House election in 2024 and the Upper House election in 2025, from the previous election. In 2024, it was highly embarrassing for Komeito’s then-chief representative Keiichi Ishii to lose his Saitama 14th district Lower House seat. He was replaced by Saito. Komeito concluded that its losses in the 2025 Upper House election were the result of the LDP’s slush fund scandal. According to party leaders, Komeito now is in “jeopardy for its survival.”

Takaichi’s choice of LDP board members added insult to Komeito’s injury. Her pick of Koichi Hagiuda for Executive Acting Secretary General cast doubt on the LDP’s seriousness about political funds reform. As a core member of the Abe faction, Hagiuda was punished by the LDP for his involvement in the slush fund scandal. He also has a close relationship with the former Unification Church, which has been accused of extorting excessive donations from its followers.

The selection of the board members reflected the strong influence of former prime minister Taro Aso who is known as a hardliner opposing Komeito’s liberal agenda. In 2023, he called Komeito leaders a “cancer” for opposing new security policies. The appointment of Shun-ichi Suzuki, a top-ranked member in Aso’s faction and Aso’s brother-in-law, to LDP Secretary General further convinced Komeito that Takaichi’s administration would be under the iron fist of Aso.

After Komeito leaves the leading coalition, it is uncertain that Takaichi will be elected the next prime minister in the upcoming Diet election. Saito unequivocally said that Komeito lawmakers would vote for Saito in the election saying, “We will not write Sanae Takaichi on our ballots.”

The LDP does not have a majority in either House. It has 196 seats in the Lower House, 37 seats short of a simple majority of 233. The Lower House has the constitutional power to name a prime minister. Although Takaichi secretly approached the DPP (with 27 seats in the Lower House) about joining the leading coalition to a full majority, the DPP has hesitated to join the coalition, given Komeito’s leaving.

On the other side, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) with 148 seats in the Lower House has been trying to coordinate voting by the opposition parties in the coming election. The three largest opposition parties—CDPJ, DPP and the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai, with 35 seats in the Lower House)—hold a total of 210 votes. This total does not constitute a majority, but if the parties in fact unite, they will overtake the LDP and may be able to elect their own prime minister.

But the opposition parties have no viable plan to elect a common leader. The CDPJ proposed the election of the DPP leader, Yuichiro Tamaki. Although Tamaki rejected the offer, given the differences between the two parties on such issues as security and constitutional amendment, he accepted an offer for a meeting with CDPJ leader, Yoshihiko Noda. Ishin's co-head are to be invited as well. There is a wider policy gap between the conservative Ishin and the liberal CDPJ.

Although Saito has said that Komeito will not cooperate with the opposition parties, it is certainly possible that Komeito will vote for an opposition candidate if the election in the Diet goes into a run-off. Were Komeito to join with the three major opposition parties (assuming those three could cooperate), there would be a majority. This possibility is far from settled. The one clear lesson is that Komeito’s secession from the leading coalition has made for an extraordinarily complex situation.

With no clear path forward for her election, Takaichi has been unable to decide when to convene the next extraordinary session of the Diet. It is urgent for the LDP to have a prime minister elected and deliver economic relief for people who are suffering from price inflation. The LDP can do so by passing the supplementary budget bill in the coming Diet session. The delay can be attributed to Takaichi’s insufficient political skills – a failure that might be causing another dispute over leadership of the party.