Monday Asia Event March 28, 2022

2022 GLOBAL ENERGY FORUM. 3/28-29 (EDT), WEBCAST. Sponsors: United Arab Emirates Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure; Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week; Atlantic Council. 

CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONS: PEERS, ALLIES, COMPETITORS? 3/28, 9:00-10:30am (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor; Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues, GU. Speakers: Joseph Torigian, Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University; Elizabeth Wishnick, Senior Research Scientist, China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division, CNA; Yu Bin, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Wittenberg University; Moderator: Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies, School of Foreign Service, GU.

CHINA’S ROLE IN THE SMUGGLING OF SYNTHETIC DRUGS AND PRECURSORS. 3/28, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), ONLINE-ONLY. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Vanda Felbab-Brown, Director, Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, Co-Director, Africa Security Initiative, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; Ryan Hass, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Michael H. Armacost Chair, Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair, Taiwan Studies, Nonresident Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Rupert Stone, Independent Journalist, Analyst; Moderator: Claire Galofaro, National Writer, Associated Press. 

U.S. NAVCENT COMMANDER VICE ADMIRAL BRAD COOPER. 3/28, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Middle East Institute (MEI). Speakers: Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces in U.S. Central Command (NAVCENT), U.S. Fifth Fleet, Combined Maritime Forces; Moderator: Bilal Y. Saab, Senior Fellow, Director, Defense and Security Program, MEI. 

WAHHABISM AND THE WORLD. 3/28, 12:30-1:30pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Berkley Center, GU. Speakers: Peter Mandaville, Editor, Senior Research Fellow, Berkley Center, GU; Alexander Thurston, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Cincinnati; Moderator: Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow, Middle East Program, Quincy Institute. 

REEXAMINING GLOBAL HEALTH: GLOBAL COMMONS, FINANCING PRIORITIES, AND THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH. 3/28, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), ONLINE. Sponsor: Center for Global Development. Speakers: Olusoji Adeyi, Former Director, Global Practice, Health, Nutrition & Population, World Bank; Dean Jamison, Emeritus Professor, University of California, San Francisco; Agnès Soucat, Head of Health and Social Protection, Agence Française de Développement; Prashant Yadav, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development; Moderator: Amanda Glassman, Executive Vice President and Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development. 

FREEDOM OVER TYRANNY: A CONVERSATION WITH SENATOR JONI ERNST. 3/28, Noon-12:30pm (EDT), ONLINE. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA); Bryan Clark, Senior Fellow, Director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson. 

THE EU, U.S. AND NATO: PARTNERS FOR GLOBAL SECURITY. 3/28, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), LIVESTREAM. Sponsors: Global Europe Program, Kennan Institute, Wilson Center. Speakers: Stefano Sannino, Secretary General, European External Action Service; Duncan Wood, Vice President for Strategy & New Initiatives, Senior Advisor, Mexico Institute, Interim Director, Global Europe Program; Moderator: Robin S. Quinville, Former State Department Fellow, Sol M. Linowitz Visiting Professor of International Affairs, Hamilton College, New York, Senior Diplomat, formerly Chargé d’Affaires, U.S. Embassy in Berlin. 

ON THE UPCOMING NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY FROM MICHAEL R. POMPEO AND NADIA SCHADLOW. 3/28, 2:00-2:20pm (EDT), ONLINE. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Michael R. Pompeo, Former U.S. Secretary of State, Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute, ; Nadia Schadlow, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute and former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy. 

ORGANIZATIONS AND NATION-STATE CYBER THREATS IN THE CROSSHAIRS. 3/28, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Bryan Palma, Chief Executive Officer, Trellix; Brandon Wales, Executive Director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; John Fokker, Head of Cyber Investigations, Trellix; Matthew Noyes, Director, Cyber Policy and Strategy, U.S. Secret Service; Moderators: James A. Lewis, Senior Vice President and Director, Strategic Technologies Program, CSIS; Eugenia Lostri, Associate Fellow, Strategic Technologies Program, CSIS. 

IN A GLOBAL ERA: WHY MEMORY DEBATES HAVE EXPLODED NOW. 3/28, 3:45-5:45pm (EDT), ZOOM. Sponsor: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. Speakers: author, Sebastian Conrad, Global History University Professor, Freie Universität Berlin, Memory in a Global Era: Why Memory Debates Have Exploded Now; Nate George, Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow, Weatherhead Scholars Program, Harvard University, Kabl Wilkerson, PhD Candidate, Harvard University. 

IN CONVERSATION WITH SENATOR THE HON PENNY WONG. 3/28, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: Senator the Hon Penny Wong, Leader of the Opposition, Senate and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Australia; Moderator: Charles Edel, Australia Chair, Senior Adviser, CSIS. 

MICRO-INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF CAPITALISM: SECTORAL PATHWAYS TO GLOBALIZATION IN CHINA, INDIA, AND RUSSIA. 3/28, 4:30-6:00pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program. Speaker: Roselyn Hsueh, Associate Professor of Political Science, Temple University. 

Monday Asia Events, March 21, 2022

CHINA, RUSSIA, AND UKRAINE WITH KEVIN RUDD. 3/21, 9:00-9:45am (EDT), LIVE ONLINE. Sponsor: Carnegie Endowment. Speaker: Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister, Head, Asia Society; Moderator: Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. 

THE FREE WORLD RALLIES BEHIND UKRAINE—WILL IT BE ENOUGH? 3/21, 9:30am (EDT), ONLINE. Speakers: Melinda Haring, deputy director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; Michael Bociurkiw, nonresident senior fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; Ambassador Oleh Shamshur, nonresident senior fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council, former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States and France; Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council, former Deputy Secretary General, NATO; Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Distinguished Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine. 

ECONOMY DISRUPTED: THE VIEW FROM FORT WORTH. 3/21, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), WEBCAST. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Mattie Parker, Mayor, Fort Worth; Moderators: Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President, Economics; Sarah Ladislaw, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy Security and Climate Change Program. 

THE FUTURE OF US ENERGY PRODUCTION: A CONVERSATION WITH SEN. BILL CASSIDY. 3/21, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Dr. Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator from Louisiana; Thomas J. Duesterberg, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute. 

CHINA'S PATHWAY TO DECARBONIZATION. 3/21, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School. Speakers: Henry Lee, Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program and Senior Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Daniel Schrag, Co-Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Harvard University. 

LOOKING FOR THE GOOD WAR: AMERICAN AMNESIA AND THE VIOLENT PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS. 3/21, 4:00-5:30pm (EDT), ZOOM. Sponsors: History and Public Policy Program; Wilson Center. Speaker: author, Elizabeth D. Samet, Professor of English, West Point, Looking for the Good War: American Amnesia and the Violent Pursuit of Happiness.  PURCHASE BOOK

EASING SUPPLY CHAIN BOTTLENECKS FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. 3/21, 4:45pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Global Supply Chains Forum, World Trade Organization (WTO). Speakers: Charles (Bud) Darr, Executive Vice President, Maritime Policy and Government Affairs, MSC Group; Clemence Cheng, Managing Director, Europe, Hutchison Ports; Seedy Keita, Minister of Trade, Industry, Regional Integration and Employment, The Gambia; Rubana Huq, Managing Director, Mohammadi Group; Victoria Claverie, Head of Trade - Europe, Standard Chartered; Kemvichet Long, Ambassador and Chair, Council for Trade in Services; Luz María de la Mora Sánchez, Undersecretary for Foreign Trade, Secretariat of Economy, Mexico; Young Tae Kim, Secretary General, International Transport Forum; Penny Naas, UPS President for International Public Affairs and Sustainability; Ryan Petersen, CEO, Flexport; Geetha Tharmaratnam, CEO & Founding Partner at Aequalitas Capital Partners; Usha Chandnee Dwarka-Canabady, Ambassador and Incoming Chair, Committee on Trade and Development; Moderators: Alan Beattie, Senior Trade Writer, Financial Times; Adva Saldinger, Senior Reporter, Devex. 

THE FTC RULEMAKING AGENDA—DWINDLED INNOVATION THROUGH REGULATION? 3/21, 5:00-5:45pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Speakers: D. Bruce Hoffman, Partner, Cleary Gottlieb; Timothy J. Muris, Professor of Law, George Mason University Foundation; Aurelien Portuese, Director, Antitrust and Innovation Policy, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Maureen K. Ohlhausen, Partner, Baker Botts. 

ALLIANCES AND THE OUTBREAK OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR. 3/21, 6:30-8:00pm (GMT), ONLINE & IN-PERSON, London, UK. Sponsor: IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Speakers: Margaret MacMillan, Engelsberg Chair, IDEAS, LSE, Emeritus Professor, International History, University of Oxford, former Warden, St Antony’s College, University of Oxford; Moderator: Christopher Coker, Director, LSE IDEAS, former Professor, International Relations, LSE. 

CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE?: DECODING THE INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGIES OF CANADA, JAPAN, THE USA, AND EUROPE. 3/21, 7:00-8:30pm (EDT), ONLINE-WEBINAR. Sponsor: Consulate General of Japan in Toronto. Speakers: Akiko Fukushima, Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research; Jonathan T. Fried, Asia Pacific Foundation; Kristi Govella, German Marshall Fund of the United States; Nicolas Véron, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Yves Tiberghien, University of British Columbia; Deanna Horton, University of Toronto. 

RICHARD HAASS IN CONVERSATION WITH PEGGY NOONAN: A WORLD OF GROWING DISARRAY. 3/21, 7:30pm (EDT), ONLINE & IN-PERSON, New York, NY. Sponsor: 92nd Street Y (92Y). Speaker: Dr. Richard Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations; Moderator: Peggy Noonan, Opinion Columnist, Wall Street Journal. fee.

JAPAN'S HIGH-TECH COMPETITIVENESS IN AN ERA OF U.S.-CHINA DECOUPLING. 3/21, 8:00-9:00pm. Sponsor: Harvard University. Speakers: Kazuyuki Motohashi, Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo; Moderator: Christina L. Davis, Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Professor of Government, Susan S. and Kenneth L. Wallach Professor, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University. 

RISING CHINA RISKS TO TAIWAN AMID THE WAR IN UKRAINE: WHAT STRATEGY IS NECESSARY FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE? 3/21, 8:00-10:00pm (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Japan Forum on International Relations [N.B.: said to be associated with Worldmate, nationalist Japanese organization]. Speakers: Kamiya Matake, Project Leader, Vice President, JFIR, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan; Sahashi Ryo, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo; Fukuda Madoka, Professor, Hosei University; Oba Mie, Professor, Kanagawa University; Kotani Tetsuo, Professor, Meikai University; Kawashima Shin, Vice Leader, Japanese Research Team, Distinguished Research Fellow, JFIR, Professor, University of Tokyo; Hosoya Yuichi, Vice Leader, Japanese Research Team, Distinguished Research Fellow, JFIR, Professor, Keio University; Patricia Kim, David M. Rubenstein Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Brookings; Nick Szechenyi, Senior Fellow, Deputy Director, Japan Chair, CSIS; Zack Cooper, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Co-Director, Alliance for Securing Democracy; James Schoff, Leader, U.S. Research Team, Senior Director, Sasakawa Peace Foundation. 

IDENTIFYING AND COUNTERING CHINA’S GLOBAL DIGITAL STRATEGY (SEOUL). 3/22, 9:00-10:40am (Seoul), 3/21, 8:00-9:35pm (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS). Speakers: Joonkoo Yoo, Research Professor, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security; Emily de la Bruyère, Non-resident Fellow, National Bureau of Asian Research; Karen Sutter, Senior Analyst, U.S.-China trade, investment, and economic issues; HyoYoung Lee, Assistant Professor, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security; JinBaek Choi, Research Professor, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security; Nigel Cory, Associate Director, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Alison Szalwinski, Vice President of Research, National Bureau of Asian Research. 

A Narrow Conservative Victory In Korea

Brings Relief, But Also New Challenges

By Daniel Sneider, Lecturer, International Policy at Stanford University and APP member

Toyo Keizai, March 10,2022

US and Japanese officials will breathe a sigh of relief behind closed doors at the victory of conservative Yoon Suk-yeol in the South Korean presidential election.

On the campaign trail, and in articles and interviews with senior aides, Yoon pledged to pursue all the policies that Washington and Tokyo are looking for in the next Korean administration: A tough line toward North Korea; a readiness to take on regional and global roles in coordination with the U.S. and its allies, even at the expense of ties to China; and a desire to drag Korea-Japan relations out of the deep hole they have sunk into.

But welcome as these words may be, the new Korean president will find it much harder to carry this out in practice.

Yoon will inherit an extremely challenging domestic political environment. Even by the normal standards of Korea’s rough and tumble politics, this election campaign was particularly nasty and neither the progressive nor the conservative candidates could overcome negative perceptions.

The extremely narrow election result, with the two candidates separated by less than one percent of the vote, demonstrated how deeply divided Koreans have become, not only by traditional factors such as regional identity, ideology, and class but now also by gender and generation.

The National Assembly will remain under progressive control for the next two years plus, facing off against a Korean president who has enormous constitutional powers. And Yoon, a former prosecutor, and outsider, will also face challenges, as was already clear in the campaign, from within the conservative party.

“Yoon will be better at managing the international community than domestic politics,” predicts Scott Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations. “He could turn out to be exactly what we want to hear, but weak.”

Unfortunately for the new South Korean president, the international situation is particularly problematic. The geostrategic and global economic environment is now fundamentally changed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No matter what the outcome on the battlefield, we are now plunged into a highly militarized and deeply split world, one where Korea will find it increasingly difficult to avoid hard choices.

South Korean foreign policy, under both conservative and progressive leaders, has always tried to walk a delicate line between the great powers that surround it. While relying on the security alliance with the U.S., the Koreans have cultivated close economic ties to China, and reached out to Russia as well. In large part, that was driven by the goal of using China and Russia to put pressure on North Korea.

In an essay in Foreign Affairs, the leading American policy journal, published in early February, Yoon rejected the focus of the Moon Jae-in government on engagement with North Korea, at the expense of a broader global role. He embraced a strategic alignment with the U.S. that goes beyond dealing with Pyongyang, even advocating some participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad).

While favoring ongoing cooperation with China, Yoon was notably critical of the Moon administration’s eagerness to yield to Chinese pressure. His views reflect growing anti-Chinese feeling in South Korea, showing up in polling results. The shift in public opinion, while perhaps not permanent, may have marginally impacted the election results, argued Stanford’s Gi-Wook Shin.

“The divided electorate is partly the result of Korea’s location, having to take into account China, Japan, Russia and the U.S.,” observes former senior State Department Korea hand David Straub. “The deep and angry division makes, and will continue to make, it very difficult for South Korea to forge a viable and sustainable policy toward the great powers.”

The Ukraine crisis has sharpened those policy choices. While Japan moved surprisingly quickly to join the U.S. and EU sanctions regime against Russia, the Moon administration hesitated at first. Publicly the Biden administration praises Korea for its decision to join forces – the President pointedly gave credit to Korea, along with Japan and other countries, in his State of the Union address. But privately senior officials admit that South Korea was shamed into it.

Relations with China pose a particular conundrum for the traditional Korean policy of ‘The United States for security, China for the economy.’ Yoon has pledged a “comprehensive strategic alliance with Washington,” one that includes coordination on multilateral issues in the Indo-Pacific and on issues like supply chain resilience and trade.

But, warns Snyder, “Yoon hasn’t grappled in public with the likelihood that South Korean relations with China will be impacted by enhanced alignment with the U.S.”

China’s decision to back Russia’s aggression is already leading to threats to impose additional sanctions against Chinese firms that supply Russia with semiconductors and other key technologies. Korea, and Japan, will be pressed to join in those moves.

The North Korea question

Ukraine may also significantly undermine the stated goal of shifting focus away from North Korea. Up until now, the Biden administration has been content to maintain the status quo with Pyongyang.

It has gone out of its way to accommodate the Moon administration’s desire to restart diplomatic engagement with the North, mostly confident that Kim Jong Un is not really interested in talks. The new administration in Seoul would seem to be even more ready to move in step with Washington, as Yoon as made it clear he is not interested in easing pressure on the North.

But Ukraine may shape North Korea’s own readiness to break free from the status quo, well beyond the latest increased tempo of missile testing. The just issued annual threat assessment report of the U.S. intelligence community states that in January, “North Korea began laying the ground for an increase in tensions that could include ICBM or possibly a nuclear test this year.” Satellite photos show evidence of early steps to repair the nuclear test site.

Bruce Klingner, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on Korea, sees hints of preparations for something to coincide with the celebration of the 110th anniversary of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung’s birthday on April 15. Some kind of major escalatory test is coming, he believes, “it’s just a question of when.”

While the testing plans have their own internal rationale and timetable, the North Koreans must be carefully watching Russia’s war and its use of nuclear threats to ward off U.S. intervention.

“The longer-term and more consequential impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lies with whether Russia’s attempt to erase an international border might stand as a precedent for North Korea, which harbors its own revisionist aspirations regarding the erasure of the armistice line dividing the Korean peninsula,” Scott Snyder wrote this week in Council on Foreign Relations blog post.

The Japan-Korea question

The thorniest issue for a Yoon administration’s foreign policy may be relations with Japan. During the election campaign, Yoon and his aides repeatedly criticized the Moon administration for its mishandling of relations with Japan.

He called for a “rethink” of relations with Tokyo, harkening back to the spirit of the joint declaration issued in 1998 between South Korean leader Kim Dae Jung and Japanese Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo.

The Biden administration has been pounding away at both Seoul and Tokyo to improve relations and to tighten trilateral security coordination. Senior State Department officials express some hope that the advent of the new government in Seoul could provide a window of opportunity to break through the current impasse in ties.

They point to the small progress represented by the recent meeting of Japanese and Korean foreign ministers in Hawaii, under the watchful aegis of the U.S.

Privately, however, U.S. officials express some frustration not only with Korean insistence on dealing with the history issues but also with Japan’s continued actions that have only worsened ties.

The Hawaii meeting, they say, was undermined by Japan’s decision to seek UNESCO status for the Sado Island mines without any admission of the role played by Korean forced labor in those mines.

The idea that trilateral relations can be improved without confronting the problems of wartime history simply ignores the role as well of Korean public opinion, and of Japanese domestic politics.

“With Japan, there is a better chance that relations could be improved under Yoon,” says Klingner, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, “but any Korean is going to set a high bar for Japan to improve relations. Yoon is more likely to focus on current threats but there will always be conditions that Japan will have to fulfill.”

And this puts pressure on Prime Minister Kishida Fumio who seems to be unwilling to break free from more hardline conservatives in the ruling party. Ironically, having a conservative government in power in Seoul, ready to engage, may pose even more of a problem for Japan.

“The Japanese will get a South Korean counterpart but one that also looks like it wants to do a lot more with Japan then [sic] the traffic seems to be willing to bear on the Japanese side,” says Snyder. The issues of forced labor and comfort women are not going to go away, he says.

The Biden administration will be watching this closely, especially if the President goes ahead with plans to hold a Quad summit in Japan in late May. There will be a crucial period between the election and the inauguration of the new President on May 10 when American officials will be exploring these issues with Yoon. He will likely send a transition team to Washington led by the next foreign minister and senior officials in the Biden administration are already preparing an agenda for those talks.

Whatever celebration is going on behind closed doors in Washington and Tokyo is not likely to last for very long. The hard work awaits.

Monday Asia Events, March 14, 2022

🌻 DOES RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE MEAN FOR THAILAND AND SOUTHEAST ASIA? 3/14, 8:00-10:00am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: New York Southeast Asia Network. Speakers: Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Editor, Strategic Survey, IISS, former UK ambassador to Belarus; Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director, Institute of Security and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University. 

THE BERSIH MOVEMENT, 2018 ELECTION, AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MALAYSIAN POLITICS. 3/14, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: East-West Center in Washington. Speakers: Dr. Lynette H. Ong, Associate Professor, Political Science, Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto; Dr. Dan Slater, Ronald and Eileen Weiser Professor, Emerging Democracies and Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies, Director, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan; Moderator: Dr. Satu P. Limaye, Vice President, Director, East-West Center in Washington. 

HARNESSING OPPORTUNITIES: CATALYZING GROWTH IN THE DATA-DRIVEN ECONOMY. 3/15, 9:30-10:30am (SGT) / 3/14, 9:30-10:30pm (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hinrich Foundation. Speakers: Kurt Tong, Partner, Asia Group; Michaela Browning, Vice President for Government Affairs and Public Policy, Google Asia Pacific; Thomas Abell, Chief and Advisor, Digital Technology for Development Unit, Asian Development Bank; Kendra Schaefer, Partner, Trivium China. 

AEROSPACE NATION: GEN KENNETH S. WILSBACH. 3/14, 10:00am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Speaker: Gen Kenneth S. Wilsbach, Commander of the Pacific Air Forces, Air Component Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Executive Director, Pacific Air Combat Operations Staff. 

🌻UKRAINE AND THE ARCTIC: PERSPECTIVES, IMPACTS, AND IMPLICATIONS. 3/14, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsors: Wilson Center; Polar Institute; Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Speakers: Marisol Maddox, Senior Arctic Analyst, Polar Institute; Elana Wilson Rowe, Research Professor, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; James P. DeHart, U.S. Coordinator for the Arctic Region, U.S. Department of State; Ulf Sverdrup, Director, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; Michael Sfraga, Chair & Distinguished Fellow, Polar Institute. 

AN ASSESSMENT OF 10 YEARS OF KORUS FTA AND FUTURE OF U.S.-KOREA ECONOMIC RELATIONS. 3/14, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Korean Economic Institute (KEI). Speakers: Kathleen Stephens, President & CEO, Korea Economic Institute (KEI); Kim Heungchong, President, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy; Yeo Han-Koo, Minister for Trade, Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy, Republic of Korea; Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; Troy Stangarone, Senior Director and Fellow, Korea Economic Institute of America; Jeffrey J. Schott, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Tami Overby, Senior Director, McLarty Associates; Kang Gu Sang, Research Fellow, Korea Institute of International Economic Policy; Koo Kyong Hyun, Research Fellow, Korea Institute of International Economic Policy; Ahn Dukgeun, Professor, Seoul National University; Troy Stangarone, Senior Director and Fellow, Korea Economic Institute of America.

PRC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC: IMPLICATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE. 3/14, 10:30-11:45am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: CNA National Security Seminar. Speakers: Amb. Michael Mann, Ambassador at Large for the Arctic, European Union; Mr. Mark E. Rosen, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, CNA; Ms. Heidi Holz, Senior Research Scientist, China Studies Program, CNA; Moderator: Mr. Cornell Overfield, Research Analyst, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA. 

PRC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC: IMPLICATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE. 3/14, 10:30-11:45am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: CNA National Security Seminar. Speakers: Amb. Michael Mann, Ambassador at Large for the Arctic, European Union; Mr. Mark E. Rosen, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, CNA; Ms. Heidi Holz, Senior Research Scientist, China Studies Program, CNA; Moderator: Mr. Cornell Overfield, Research Analyst, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA. 

🌻CYBER IN THE UKRAINE INVASION. 3/14, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), Chairman, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence; Chris Painter, Former Coordinator for Cyber Issues, U.S Department of State; Greg Rattray, Partner, Co-Founder, Next Peak LLC; Moderator: James Andrew Lewis, Senior Vice President, Director, Strategic Technologies Program. 

COUNTER-DECOLONIZATION: POLICING MONEY AND RACE DURING THE LONG PHILIPPINE AMERICAN WAR. 3/14, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Center for Southeast Asia Studies, Filipinx and Philippine Studies Working Group, UC Berkeley. Speaker: Allan Lumba, Assistant Professor of History, Virginia Tech University; Moderator: Joshua Acosta, Ph.D. candidate, Ethnic Studies, UC Berkeley. 

🌻UNDERSTANDING RUSSIA IN UKRAINE. 3/14, Noon (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: JINSA. Speakers: Stephen Sestanovich, PhD, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor, Practice of International Diplomacy, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; Angela Stent, PhD, Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian & East European Studies, Georgetown University; Michael Makovsky, PhD, President and CEO, JINSA. 

UNDERSTANDING U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM AND IRREGULAR OPERATIONS: AN EVENT TO HONOR THE MEMORY OF MICHAEL SHEEHAN. 3/14, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), ONLINE. Sponsor: New America. Speakers: Peter Bergen, Vice President, New America; Col. (ret.) Liam Collins, Executive Director of the Viola Foundation, Fellow, New America International Security Program, Former Director, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point; Luke Hartig, Fellow, New America International Security program, Former Senior Director for Counterterrorism, National Security Council, President, National Journal Research; Elisabeth Kendall, Research Fellow, Oxford University (Pembroke); Moderator: Karen J. Greenberg, Director, Center on National Security at Fordham Law, Fellow, New America International Security Program, Author, Subtle Tools: The Dismantling of American Democracy from the War on Terror to Donald Trump. 

CADRE OR CARTEL? THE EVOLUTION OF THE POLITICAL-PARTY SYSTEM IN THAILAND. 3/14, 2:30-3:30am (EDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS). Speakers: James Ockey, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, former ISEAS Visiting Fellow; Punchada Sirivunnabood, Visiting Fellow, Thailand Studies Programme, ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Associate Professor, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Mahidol University, Bangkok. 

🌻RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE: THE CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER CASE OF CHINA. 3/14, 3:00-4:00 (PDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. Speakers: Tai Ming Cheung, Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, Director, UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation; Weiyi Shi, Assistant Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy; Victor Shih, Associate Professor, Ho Miu Lam Chair, China and Pacific Relations, School of Global Policy and Strategy; Susan Shirk, Research Professor, Chair, 21st Century China Center, School of Global Policy and Strategy; Moderator: Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies, School of Global Policy and Strategy. 

UNDOING THE LIBERAL WORLD ORDER: PROGRESSIVE IDEALS AND POLITICAL REALITIES SINCE WORLD WAR II. 3/14, 4:00-5:30pm (EDT), ZOOM. Sponsors: Wilson Center; History and Public Policy Program. Speakers: author, Leon Fink, Distinguished professor of history emeritus , University of Illinois at Chicago, Undoing the Liberal World Order: Progressive Ideals and Political Realities Since World War II. 

THE KOREAN ELECTION. 3/14, 5:00pm (PDT), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. Speakers: Erik Mobrand, Korean Policy Chair, RAND Corporation; Moderator: Stephen Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. 

Asia Events, Monday March 7, 2022

KOREA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: FORECAST AND IMPACT ANALYSIS. 3/7, 8:00am (EST), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: Korea Society. Speakers: Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Chief, Seoul/Tokyo bureau, Washington Post; Karl Friedhoff, Marshall M. Bouton Fellow for Asian Studies, Chicago Council; Jeongmin Kim, Lead Correspondent, NK News, NK Pro; Dr. Katrin Katz, Van Fleet Nonresident Senior Fellow, Korea Society; Moderator: Jonathan Corrado, Policy Director, Korea Society. 

U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE COOPERATION IN THE POST-PANDEMIC WORLD. 3/7, 8:00-9:00am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Stimson Center. Speakers: Riho Aizawa, Research Fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies; Ryosuke Hanada, Research Student, Macquarie University; Naritada Miura, Program Assistant, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA; Ippeita Nishida, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan. 

THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE: ONE WEEK LATER. 3/7, 9:00am (EST), WEBCAST. Sponsor: Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI). Speakers: Kevin Rudd, President, ASPI; Hon. Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, Sweden; Hon. Radoslaw Sikorski, European Parliament Member, Poland; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow, Center for New American Security. 

PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN A TURBULENT WORLD. 3/7, Noon (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsors: Public Diplomacy Council, USC Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership & Policy, Public Diplomacy Association of America. Speaker: Tom Carothers, Senior Vice President, Carnegie for International Peace. 

AI, INNOVATION, AND WELFARE: A CONVERSATION WITH JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ. 3/7, 2:00-3:00pm (EST), WEBCAST. Sponsor: Brookings. Speaker: Joseph E. Stiglitz, Professor, Columbia University; Moderator: Anton Korinek, David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Brookings. 

GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM: FOREIGN POLICY IN AN ERA OF DOMESTIC DIVISION. 3/7, 2:00-5:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President, Harold Brown Chair, CSIS; Michael J. Green, Senior Vice President for Asia, Japan Chair, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, CSIS; William J. Lynn III, CEO, Leonardo/DRS; Nancy Youssef, National Security Correspondent, Wall Street Journal; John J. Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS; William Cohen, former Secretary of Defense; Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense. 

THIRTY YEARS OF US-KAZAKHSTAN RELATIONS: THE WINTER CRISIS AND PATH FORWARD. 3/7, 3:30-4:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Daniel Witt, President, International Tax and Investment Center; Ambassador John Herbst, Senior Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; H.E. Yerzhan Ashikbayev, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the United States; Dr. Kamran Bokhari, Director of Analytical Development, Newlines Institute; Dr. Ariel Cohen, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; Shelby Magid, Associate Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council. 

HISTORY, DISRUPTED": HOW SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE WORLD WIDE WEB HAVE CHANGED THE PAST. 3/7, 4:00-5:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center; Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wilson Center. Speakers: author, Jason Steinhauer, Global Fellow, Founder, History Communication Institute, "History, Disrupted": How Social Media and the World Wide Web Have Changed the Past; Christian F. Ostermann, Director, History and Public Policy Program, Cold War International History Project, North Korea Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson Center; Eric Arnesen, Former Fellow, Professor of History, The George Washington University.  PURCHASE BOOK 

WHY YOKOSUKA HOSTS AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER & WHY IT WILL HOST A SECOND. 3/7, 7:00-8:15pm (JST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies (YCAPS). Speaker: Tetsuo Kotani, Professor of Global Studies, Meikai University.

Asia Policy Events, February 28, 2022

ENGAGEMENT & REMEDY FORUM FOR RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS CONDUCT 2022: TOWARDS IMPLEMENTATION OF GRIEVANCE MECHANISMS IN JAPAN. 2/28, 1:00-4:00pm (JST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF). Speakers: Itsu Adachi, Executive Director, SPF; Keiichi Ujiie, GCNJ; Gen Toyoa, METI; Hidemi Tomita; LRQA Sustainability; Sakon Kuramoto, BHR Lawyers; Allan Jorgensen, OECD Responsible Business Conduct Center; Phil Bloomer, Business and Human Rights Resource Centre; Hideki Wakabayashi, JANIC; Ryusuke Tanaka, ILO Japan; Emiko Nagasawa, Keidanren; Akihiro Ueda, SPF; Surya Deva, UN Business and Human Rights Working Group; Toshio Shikata, LRQA Sustainability; Daisuke Takahashi, BHR Lawyers; Akiko Sato, Human Rights Now; Yasunobu Sato, Tokyo University.  

FROM MANNERS TO RULES: REGULATING SMOKING IN JAPAN AND KOREA. 2/28, 5:00pm (PST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. Speaker: Celeste Arrington PhD, Associate Professor, Korea Foundation, Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University. 

JAPANESE SOFT POWER. 2/28, 8:00-9:00pm (EST), 3/1, 10:00-11:00am (JST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies (YCAPS). Speaker: Dr. Nancy Snow, Pax Mundi (“Distinguished”) Professor of Public Diplomacy, Kyoto University of Foreign Studies. Moderator: Michael Okamoto, Director, Getting to Know Japan Series, YCAPS.  

UNDERSTANDING THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASIA AND THE WORLD. 2/28, 8:30-9:30am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Asia Society. Speakers: Alexander Gabuev, Senior Fellow, Chair of Russia, Carnegie; Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan, Chairman, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore; C. Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute; Hon. Kevin Rudd, President and CEO, Asia Society; Moderator: Daniel Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy. 

US–EUROPE COOPERATION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC. 2/28, 9:30-11:30am (EST), ONLINE. Sponsor: German Marshall Fund. Speakers: Heather Conley, President, German Marshall Fund; Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant to the President, Coordinator, Indo-Pacific Affairs, US National Security Council; Gunnar Wiegand, Managing Director, Asia and Pacific, European External Action Service; Bonnie Glaser, Director, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund; Gabriele Visentin, EU Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific; Mira Rapp-Hooper, Director, Indo-Pacific Strategy, US National Security Council; Moderator: Garima Mohan, Fellow, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund. 

RESEARCH UNBOUND: DO FREE TRADE ZONES STIMULATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP? 2/28, 10:00-11:00am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Center for International Private Enterprise. Speakers: Xiaocun Qiu, Researcher & Founder, Oxbridge Economics; Mikra Krasniqi, Research Officer, Policy & Program Learning, CIPE; Moderator: Cathy Tai, Deputy Regional Director, Asia, CIPE. 

FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ROBERT C. O’BRIEN ON WINNING THE 21ST CENTURY TECH RACE WITH CHINA. 2/28, 11:00-11:45am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Heritage. Speakers: Robert C. O’Brien, Former National Security Advisor; Dustin Carmack, Research Fellow, Technology Policy, Heritage. 

US-CHINA RIVALRY AND THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION. 2/28, Noon-1:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Alexander Hamilton Society. Speaker: Aaron Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University. 

COLLECTIVE DEFENSE AND THE CRISIS IN EUROPE: A CONVERSATION WITH ADMIRAL ROB BAUER, CHAIR OF THE NATO MILITARY COMMITTEE. 2/28, 12:30-1:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council. Speakers: Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee. 

JAPAN'S AND THE UNITED STATES' QUESTS TO ACHIEVE A CARBON-FREE POWER SECTOR: NECESSARY BREAKTHROUGHS IN POLICY, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, AND BUSINESS MODELS. 2/28, 6:00-7:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: US-Japan Council. Speakers: Hiroaki Kitano, Ph.D., Professor, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University; Momoko Nagasaki, Managing Executive Officer, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.; Naoki Nagai, Consultant, Pacific International Center for High Technology Research. 

IS A JAPAN-INDIA ALLIANCE POSSIBLE? 2/28, 8:00-9:00pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, Indiana University. Speaker: Dr. Rohan Mukherjee, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Yale-NUS College, Singapore. 

Asia Policy Events, Monday, February 14, 2022

THE WILSON CHINA FELLOWSHIP CONFERENCE 2022. 9:00am-4:30pm (EST), ZOOM. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Agenda: The State of U.S.-China Relations and the Study of China; The U.S.-China Trade War, Multinationals, and China’s Economy; The Decline of Engagement and the Impacts of U.S.-China Competition; The Party's Interests, History, and Xi Jinping; China and Its Relations with Developing Countries and the Global South; Southeast Asia and China: A Complex Interaction; China’s Influence Overseas: Democracy, Norms, and Overseas Chinese Communities. 

RAISING THE ECONOMIC COSTS FOR RUSSIA’S CONTINUED AGGRESSION TOWARDS UKRAINE. 2/14, 9:00-10:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Speakers: Edward Fishman, Adjunct Fellow, Energy, Economics, and Security Program, CNAS; Dr. Maria Shagina, Visiting Fellow, U.S. Center for Politics and Power, Finnish Institute of International Affairs; Tom Keatinge, Director, Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies, Royal United Services Institute; Moderators: Emily Kilcrease, Senior Fellow and Program Director, Energy, Economics, and Security Program, CNAS; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Program Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS. 

WHERE’S THE WATER: MEKONG DRY SEASON 2022. 9:00-10:00pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Stimson Center. Speakers: Alan Basist, President, Eyes on Earth and Mekong Dam Monitor Co-Lead; Brian Eyler, Southeast Asia Program Director and Mekong Dam Monitor Co-Lead, Stimson Center; Courtney Weatherby, Southeast Asia Program Deputy Director, Stimson Center; Nguyen Huu Thien, Independent consultant based in Can Tho, Vietnam;  Moderator: Socheata Hean, Independent Journalist.

TAIWAN'S GLOBAL GRAVITY: THE PUSH AND PULL OF COERCIVE AND ANNIHILATIVE CROSS-STRAIT SCENARIOS. Noon-3:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Project 2049 Institute. Speakers: Ambassador Bi-khim Hsiao, Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office; Elaine Luria, Representative of the 2nd District of Virginia, U.S. House of Representatives; Mark Stokes, Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute; Ian Easton, Senior Director, Project 2049 Institute; Eric Lee, Associate Director of Programs, Project 2049 Institute; Michael Mazza, Nonresident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Gary J. Schmitt, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Shihoko Goto, Director of the Asia Program, Wilson Center (WWC); Honorable Randall G. Schriver; Chairman, The Project 2049 Institute. 

NORTH KOREA AND THE MIDDLE EAST: LESSONS LEARNED FOR US - NORTH KOREA RELATIONS. 1:00-2:00pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: East-West Center in Washington (EWCW) and National Committee on North Korea (NCNK). Speakers: Dr. Satu P. Limaye, Vice President, East- West Center & Director, East-West Center in Washington; Ms. Suzanne DiMaggio, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Mr. Yaakov Katz, Editor-in-Chief, The Jerusalem Post; Dr. Siegfried Hecker, Senior Fellow, Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Emeritus; and Mr. Keith Luse, Executive Director, National Committee on North Korea. 

DIGITAL CURRENCY IN CHINA AND THE ASIA PACIFIC CONFERENCE. 7:00pm EST, ONLINE. Sponsor: The Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center and UC San Diego’s 21st Century China Center (21CCC). Speakers: Josh Lipsky, Director, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Mu Changchun (TBC), Director, Digital Currency Research Institute, People’s Bank of China; Susan Shirk, Chair of the 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Victor Shih, Associate Professor; Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, Chairman and CEOCircle; He Yifan, CEORed Date Technology; Siddharth Tiwari; Chief Representative for Asia and the PacificBank of International Settlements. 

Standing up to the LDP's Dark Side

Two Streams in the LDP

J Update by Takuya Nishimura, Hokkaido Shimbun, views expressed in these essays do not represent those of the newspaper and are personal

November 10, 2021

In the first meeting after the general election of the House of Representatives last month, the Diet of Japan constitutionally elected Fumio Kishida as 101st Prime Minister of Japan on Wednesday. Kishida immediately organized his cabinet, which actually resulted in a minor change from the former one. However, it is possibly rather the big change in power balance inside the leading Liberal Democratic Party.

One of Kishida's important agenda is getting rid of neo-liberalism economics that has been upheld by LDP sidestream. Yes, LDP has mainstream and sidestream, since Kakuei Tanaka succeeded Prime Minister Eisaku Sato in 1972. Although Sato assumed Takeo Fukuda, who upheld pro-Taiwan and moderate financial policy, as his successor, Tanaka won LDP presidential election with popular pro-China and rapid growth policy. That is engraved in LDP history as the First Kaku-Fuku War. Even after Tanaka resigned due to the Lockheed scandal, his group maintained latent power over the administrations.

During that period, a policy group called Kochikai, established by Hayato Ikeda, elected two prime ministers, Masayoshi Ohira and Kiichi Miyazawa, under control of Tanaka or his successors' group. But, members of Kochikai liked to call themselves “mainstream conservatives,” distinguishing from Fukuda's "sidestream." Although mainstream politics sought high economic growth, its main target was reinforcing the middle class.

Inauguration of Jun-ichiro Koizumi, who had been a young member of Fukuda group at the time of the Second Kaku-Fuku War, marked the end of the mainstream ruling. Koizumi politics, mainly succeeded by Shinzo Abe, focused on political reform and economic deregulation, which was based on trickle-down theory. But, it resulted in widening social gap between the rich and the poor. That kind of pro-growth policy was exercised by sidestream administrations for two decades except for three years of the Democratic Party's era. During that period, the sidestream actually worked as the mainstream.

Although Kishida appeals to maintain Abe's pro-growth policy called Abenomics, the new prime minister looks more to distribution than growth. He also updates his group's traditional economic policies such as the Income Doubling Plan of Ikeda or the National Garden City Initiative of Ohira. Replacing LDP Secretary General Akira Amari to Toshimitsu Motegi, who descends from Tanaka group, and picking Yoshimasa Hayashi with Kishida group to the Minister of Foreign Affairs can be recognized as an attempt of distancing from Abe or sidestream rules. In short, it may be the time of regime change once in decades.

Abe decided to take over the group originated by Fukuda to keep his influence on the Kishida administration. While some of his aides remain in the Kishida Cabinet and LDP executive board, Kishida looks to be handling post COVID-19 reconstruction policy along with mainstream agenda. His true intention will be made clear in the economic policy package being delivered mid-November.

Update: In regard to the 2021 supplementary budget, which would endorse Kishida's economic policy package, Kishida's building of leadership looks to be halfway. Although his budget focused on distributing budgetary resources to the sufferers from COVID-19, Kishida did not forget to take care of Abe's agenda such as military expansion. This caused disappointment on the expectation of a quick LDP power transition.

Eighty Years Ago, on December 7th Japan Assaulted More than Pearl Harbor

On December 7, 1941, Japan expanded its war on the Asian mainland south and eastward into the Pacific.

by Mindy L. Kotler

National Interest, Dec 7, 2021

Eighty years ago today, December 7, 1941, critical airfields and ports across Southeast Asia and the Pacific were ablaze and in ruin. In just seven hours, Imperial Japan’s surprise attacks cripled British and American forces in the Far East, exposed the Dutch East Indies to invasion, and pushed Thailand into submission. The bombing of Pearl Harbor was but one of many that day. Casualties of the “Associated Powers,” likely exceeded those in Hawaii. One result of these unprovoked attacks was the creation of alliances that endure to this day.

Japan coordinated attacks on the U.S. territories of Philippines, Guam, Wake Island, Howland Island, and Midway and the British Empire in Malaya, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Japanese forces invaded and bombed Thailand’s airfields. In Shanghai, Japan took control of the International Settlement after blowing up the last two British and American gunboats on the Yangtze, the HMS Peterel and the USS Wake.  

The first attack, 70 minutes before Pearl Harbor, was on British-Indian forces at Kota Bharu, on the eastern side of Malaya. Hours before, a British flying boat was shot down by Japanese aircraft while monitoring the progress of the Japanese fleet. The British Royal Air Force crew and their Royal Australian Air Force observer became the first Allied casualties of the war. The ensuing defense of northeastern Malaya was fierce and savage with high casualties on both sides. 

Soon after, Bangkok was bombed and Japanese troops landed to its south and at various points along the Kra Peninsula on the southeastern coast of Thailand. Again, the invaders met with stiff resistance. Despite determined Thai forces, the fighting lasted only five hours. Prime Minister Plaek Phibunsongkhram agreed to a ceasefire and formed an alliance with Japan. The Kota Bharu landings were a prelude to the drive down the eastern side of the Malay peninsula, while the Japanese troops landed in Thailand advanced with Thai soldiers down the western side to seize Singapore and its naval base--the cornerstone of British power in the Indo-Pacific. Japanese planes bombed Singapore that day in warning.

Japan’s early morning attack on Pearl Harbor on Hawaii’s Oahu, was followed by the bombardments of the American airfields on Midway and Howland Island in the equatorial Pacific. Two of the four Hawaii settlers on Howland were killed. For his selfless defense of Midway, First Lieutenant George H. Cannon became the first U.S. Marine in World War II to receive the Medal of Honor.

Guam was shelled, bombed, and invaded. The American territory fell two days later. Of the nearly 500 American military personnel taken to Japan from Guam as prisoners of war, five were female nurses. Japanese troops occupied Batan Island above Northern Luzon in the Philippines before mounting a full-scale invasion. This approach on Aparri on the coast of Cagayan Valley, believed by American war planners as impractical, caught the defenders off-guard and unprepared. The success of the surprise assault was played out just this past fall when U.S., Filipino, and Japanese forces held their first joint amphibious exercises near this Northern Luzon town.

Six hours after the Pearl Harbor attack, the Japanese bombed Hong Kong’s Kai Tak Airport and pushed the defending British and Commonwealth troops to the defensive Gin Drinkers Line. The territory, however, was long regarded as indefensible. Nevertheless British, Indian, Canadian  units along with the Auxiliary Defence Units and Hong Kong Volunteer Defence Corps (HKVDC) held out for two weeks against a Japanese force twice its size.

The Japanese attacked Wake Island about the same time as they bombed Hong Kong. The Americans on Wake Island were composed of 400 Marines, a handful of soldiers and sailors, 45 Chamorro Pan Am employees,  and 1,146 unarmed civilian contractors building an airfield. They proceeded to do what had never been done before or after, hold off an Armada for nearly two weeks. They did not surrender until December 23rd.

The last Japanese actions on December 7th were the bombing of the Iba and Clark airfields in southern Luzon, the Philippines. As in Hawaii, the Japanese caught the American planes on the ground and the defense weak. The guns of neither the ageing artillery batteries nor tank battalions defending the fields could reach the high flying Japanese planes. Whereas the attack on Pearl Harbor damaged the Pacific Fleet, the attack on the Philippines and other U.S. territories destroyed the Far East Air Force. 

The first battle casualty of the Armored Force in World War II, Pvt. Robert Brooks of Kentucky’s Company D, 192nd Tank Battalion, took place on Clark Field. Back at Fort Knox, the home of the newly formed Armored Force, the Commanding General Jacob Devers responded to the news by ordering that the main parade ground at the base be named after the young tanker. This distinction was particularly significant as Brooks turned out to be African American.

On December 7, 1941, Japan expanded its war on the Asian mainland south and eastward into the Pacific. The primary objective was to knock out American and British opposition to its advance into Southeast Asia. The ultimate goal was occupation of the Indo-Pacific, control over  its valuable natural resources, and supremacy over the region's seas. As the sun set, Japan's success seemed possible.

Instead, the day’s debacles forged alliances with a resolve to fight fascist expansionism East and West. The “Associated Powers” (Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States) became the Allies and expanded to include India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and free forces from Japan’s occupied territories. The shared bitter experience of Imperial Japan’s wanton brutality and deceits provided the emotional bond to this warfighting coalition. Ironically, these very alliances are what Japan today looks to in defending its homeland. 

Monday Asia Events December 13, 2021

BEYOND VACCINE DIPLOMACY: THE UNITED STATES AND COVID19 RECOVERY IN THE PHILIPPINES AND SOUTHEAST ASIA. 12/13, 9:00-10:30pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: Pacific Forum International. Speakers: Sec. Carlito Galvez, Chief Implementer, National Task Force for COVID-19, Republic of the Philippines; Dr. Yanzhong Huang, Professor and Director, Center for Global Health Studies, Seton Hall University; Moderator: Angelica Mangahas, PhD Candidate, SAIS, Johns Hopkins. 

AMERICAN, CHINESE, AND INDIAN TRILATERAL PERSPECTIVES: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS-REPORT LAUNCH. 12/13, 9:00am (EST), ZOOM. Sponsor: Sigur Center, GW. Speakers: Ambassador Teresita C. Schaffer, served at US embassies in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, and from 1992-95 as US Ambassador in Sri Lanka; Ambassador Julia Chang Bloch, Founding President of the US-China Education Trust; Ambassador WEI Wei served as the Special and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Brunei Darussalam, the Republic of Singapore, and the Republic of India; Nirupama Menon Rao is a retired Indian diplomat, Foreign Secretary and Ambassador; David M. Lampton is Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute and Professor Emeritus at Johns Hopkins–SAIS; Professor JIA Qingguo currently serves as Professor and former Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University.

JAPAN, THE U.S., AND ECONOMIC AND SECURITY POLICY LINKAGES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. 12/13, 9:15am (EST), ZOOM. Sponsor: Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. Speakers: Tain Jy Chen, Professor of Economics, Taipei School of Economics and Political Science, Professor Emeritus, National Taiwan University; Sadamasa Oue, Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific Initiative; Lt. Gen. (retired), Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF); Shelley Rigger, Brown Professor of Political Science, Davidson College; Daniel Russel, Vice President, International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI); Moderator: Christina L. Davis, Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; Professor of Government; Susan S. and Kenneth L. Wallach Professor, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University. 

TRAFFIC LIGHT & QUIRINALE: A MORE JOINED UP FOREIGN POLICY FOR THE EU’S BIG THREE? 12/13, 10:00-11:30am (EST), 4:00-5:30pm (CET), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). Speakers: Riccardo Alcaro, Research Coordinator and Head of the Global Actors Programme, IAI Rome; Ronja Kempin, Senior Fellow, EU/Europe Division, SWP Berlin; Pol Morillas, Director, Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB); Jean-Pierre Darnis, Associate Fellow, FRS Paris; Moderator: Zachary Paikin, Researcher, CEPS. 

NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE STEWARDSHIP AND INERTIAL CONFINEMENT: HOW THE U.S. USES BIG SCIENCE TO ENSURE OUR AGING NUCLEAR WARHEADS WORK. 12/13, Noon-1:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsors: Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center. Speakers: Dr. Mark Anderson, Assistant Deputy Administrator, Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, National Nuclear Security Administration; Dr. E. Michael Campbell, Director, Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester; Dr. Mark C. Herrmann, Deputy Program Director, Fundamental Weapons Physics, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Dr. Kimberly Scott, Program Director, Office of Experimental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dr. Daniel Sinars, Director, Pulsed Power Sciences Center, Sandia National Laboratories. 

MODERNIZING INTELLIGENCE FOR THE GRAY ZONE. 12/13, 2:00-3:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: H.E. Michael Vickers, Former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence; Moderator: Jake Harrington, Intelligence Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS. 

COLLAPSE: THE FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION. 12/13, 4:00-5:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsors: National History Center; Wilson Center (WWC). Speakers: Vladislav Zubok, Author, Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science; William Taubman, Bertrand Professor of Political Science Emeritus, Amherst College; Dina Fainberg, Associate Professor of Modern History, City University of London. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3Dttkpu

JOONGANG ILBO-CSIS FORUM 2021: THE BIDEN ERA AND KOREA'S GLOBAL STRATEGY. 12/13, 7:30-10:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsors: CSIS; JoongAng Ilbo. Speakers Include: Yun Byung-Se, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea; Song Min-Soon, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea; Hong Seok-Hyun, Chairman, JoongAng Holdings; Park Myung-Lim, Director, Korea Peace Foundation; Wi Sung-Lac, Chairman, Pragmatic Foreign Affairs Committee, Presidential Campaign for Lee Jae Myung, Democratic Party of Korea; John J. Hamre, President, CSIS; Victor 

Monday Asia Events December 5, 2021

2021 GLOBAL FORUM ON COMPETITION. 12/6, 6:00-10:00am (EST), Noon-4:00pm (CET), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Speakers Include: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF; Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General, OECD; Frédéric Jenny, Chair, OECD Competition Committee; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General, WTO; Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General, UNCTAD; Joseph E. Stiglitz, Professor, Columbia University.  

JOINING DEMOCRACY AND PEACE: HARNESSING THE INEXTRICABLE LINK BETWEEN THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS AND PEACEBUILDING. 12/6, 9:30-11:00am (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: U.S. Institute of Peace Institute (USIP). Speakers: Uzra Zeya, Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, U.S.; Farhad Alaaldin, Chair, Iraq Advisory Council, Iraq; Maria Jimena Duzan, Host, “A Fondo” Podcast, Colombia; Glenda Gloria, Executive Editor, Rappler, Philippines; Idayat Hassan, Director, Centre for Democracy and Development, Nigeria; Oleksandra Matviychuk, Chair, Center for Civil Liberties, Ukraine; Moderator: Lise Grande, President and CEO, USIP. 

ADVOCATES FOR DEMOCRACY IN CLOSED SPACES. 12/6, 10:00-11:30am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers Include: Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), Chairman, Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations; Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), Ranking Member, House Foreign Affairs Committee; Amb. Isobel Coleman, Deputy Administrator for Policy and Programming, USAID; Anna Dobrovolskaya, Executive Director, Memorial Human Rights Center; Glacier Kwong, Political and Digital Rights Activist, Hong Kong; Sopheap Chak, Executive Director, Cambodian Center for Human Rights; Luciano Garcia, President, Hagamos Democracia.   

STEPHEN HABER ON THE BATTLE OVER PATENTS: HISTORY AND POLITICS OF INNOVATION. 12/6, 10:00-11:00am (PST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Hoover. Speakers: Stephen Haber, Author, Senior Fellow, Hoover; Alexander Galetovic, Research Fellow, Hoover; Gerardo Con Diaz, Former William C. Bark National Fellow, Hoover. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3E8AtfR

FORTIFYING THE FUTURE: BUILDING RESILIENCE IN THE AGE OF DISINFORMATION SESSION 2. 12/6, 10:00-11:00am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: National Committee on American Foreign Policy. Speakers: Benjamin Haddad, Senior Director, Europe Center, Atlantic Council; Dominika Hajdu, Policy Director, Centre for Democracy and Reslience, GLOBSEC Policy Institute; Jakub Janda, Director, European Values Center for Security Policy; James Pamment, Associate Professor, Lund University; Moderator: Nicholas Thompson, CEO, The Atlantic. 

REBOOTING THE EU-U.S. DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP. 12/6, 11:00am-Noon (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS), Johns Hopkins. Speaker: Sophia Besch, Research Fellow, AICGS, Johns Hopkins. 

VICIOUS CYCLE OF ELECTORAL VOLATILITY IN KYRGYZSTAN. 12/6, 11:00am-Noon (EST), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Dr. Aijan Sharshenova, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, OSCE Academy; Bruce Pannier, Senior Correspondent for Central Asia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Amb. Kadyr Toktogulov, former Kyrgyzstan Ambassador to the U.S.; Paul Stronski, Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie. 

PROGRESS AT THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION AND US TRADE POLICY IN THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. 12/6, 11:00am-12:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Speakers Include: Angela Ellard, Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization; Joshua P. Meltzer, Senior Fellow, Brookings; Jennifer A. Hillman, Professor, GU; Moderators: Neena Shenai, Nonresident Fellow, AEI.

2021 HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON AWARDS: WOMEN'S RIGHTS ARE HUMAN RIGHTS. 12/6, 11:00am-Noon, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security. Speakers: H.E. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 67th Secretary of State, U.S.; H.E. Madeleine K. Albright, 64th Secretary of State, U.S.; Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); Dr. Marina Pisklakova, Founder & Chair, ANNA – National Center for the Prevention of Violence; Guo Jianmei, Founder, Center for Women’s Law Studies and Legal Services; Dr. Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda, African Union Goodwill Ambassador on Ending Child Marriage; Palwasha Hassan, Director, Afghan Women’s Educational Center. Location: Gaston Hall, Georgetown University, 3700 O Street Northwest, Washington, DC 20007.

CONGRESS AND WAR: RECLAIMING ARTICLE I POWERS. 12/6, Noon-1:00pm (EST), LIVESTREAM. Sponsor: Cato. Speakers: Chris Murphy, Senator for Connecticut, United States Senate; Jordan Cohen, Policy Analyst, Cato; Gene Healy, Senior Vice President for Policy, Cato; Moderator: Eric Gomez, Director of Defense Policy Studies, Cato. 

HOW CAN CARBON MINERALIZATION HELP FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE? 12/6, Noon-1:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University. Speakers: Dr. S. Julio Friedmann, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University; Dr. Peter Kelemen, Arthur D. Storke Professor, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University; Sasha Wilson, Associate Professor, Faculty of Science, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Administrator, University of Alberta. 

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS MEETING. 12/6, Noon-1:30pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Gold Institute for International Strategy (GIIS). Speakers: Monica Crowley, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury; David P. Goldman, President, Macrostrategy LLC, Asia Times, Economist, WSJ; Ambassador Hisham ElNakib, Advisor to Egyptian Mission to U.N.; Marc Black, Senior Law Enforcement Fellow, GIIS; Adam Lovinger, Vice President of Strategic Affairs, GIIS.

CHINA’S POWER: UP FOR DEBATE 2021 - DEBATE 2: BEIJING’S CRACKDOWN WILL STIFLE CHINESE TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENTIFIC INNOVATION. 12/6, 4:00-5:15pm (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Rui Ma, China Tech Analyst, Main Writer and Co-Host, Tech Buzz China; Matt Sheehan, Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie; Moderator: Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project, CSIS. 

NATIONAL READINESS FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION. 12/6, 5:00-6:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics. Speaker: General Joseph L. Votel (Ret.), Commander, U.S. Central Command. 

SPECIAL SCREENING OF UK DOCUMENTARY “JAPAN’S WARTIME SEX SLAVES” AND PANEL DISCUSSION. 12/6, 7:30pm (GMT), 2:30pm (EST), IN PERSON (University of Oxford) and VIRTUAL. Sponsors: Institute of Digital Archaeology (IDA); Comfort Women Action for Redress and Education (CARE). Speakers: Krishnan Guru-Murthy, Journalist, Unreported World; Dr. Maki Kimura, Lecturer in Gender and Politics, University College London; Christina Lamb, Journalist, Sunday Times; Moderator: Dr. Alexis Dudden, Professor, University of Connecticut. Location: Magdalen College Auditorium, University of Oxford. Request link from info@digitalarchaeology.org.uk; https://digitalarchaeology.org.uk/
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20211129120700075 [article about Japanese rightwing harassment]

duplicate? SPECIAL INTERVIEW OF UK DOCUMENTARY “JAPAN’S WARTIME SEX SLAVES” COMFORT WOMAN SURVIVOR YONG-SOO LEE. 12/6, 10:00am (GMT), 5:00am (EST), ZOOM WEBINAR. Sponsors: Institute of Digital Archaeology (IDA); Comfort Women Action for Redress and Education (CARE). Speaker: Yong-soo Lee. Request link from info@digitalarchaeology.org.uk. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZyYyXKG51s&t=105s]

SHEDDING TAIWAN'S 'INVISIBILITY CLOAK': GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PROSPECTS. 12/6, 8:00-9:00pm (EST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Sigur Center, Elliot School, GW. Speakers: Liang-Yu Wang, Deputy Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S.; Pasha L. Hsieh, Associate Professor and the Associate Dean (Faculty Matters & Research), Singapore Management University Yong Pung How School of Law; Michael Mazza, Nonresident Fellow, Global Taiwan Institute and German Marshall Fund of the United States; Moderator: Deepa Ollapally, Associate Director, Sigur Center, Elliot School, GW. 

TOWARDS POST-COVID-19 FISCAL POLICY AND DIGITALIZATION IN ASIA. 12/6, 10:00pm-12:00am (EST), 12/7, Noon-2:00pm (JST), WEBINAR. Sponsor: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI). Speakers Include: Odd-Per Brekk, Deputy Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF; Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF; Ruud De Mooij, Assistant Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF; Dharitri Panda, Finance Ministry, India; Sangwook Nam, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Republic of Korea; John Beirne, Research Fellow, ADBI.