LDP Rematch

Consolation Match for the Five LDP Presidency Candidates

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
Sept 15, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

A week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, the campaign for the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began. It has turned into a race with five entrants – all of whom lost in the last election a year ago. The race is likely to be about which candidate can “change” the ailing party’s culture through political funding reform and can manage Diet affairs without a majority in either chamber.
 
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last September, in the face of public criticism of the kickback fund scandal by some factions in the LDP. Ishiba succeeded Kishida in the expectation that he would reform a party that relied heavily on donations from companies and business organizations. Ishiba was caught in the middle of a party struggle over whether to ban those donations.
 
Ishiba had promised last December that he would have a legislative solution to reform political donations by the end of March, but he did not deliver. Instead, he continued to discuss reforms with the opposition parties, some of which demanded the total abolition of donations from companies and organizations.
 
In the Lower House election last October, the LDP lost its majority. Responsibility for the loss fell largely on Kishida since the election took place shortly after Ishiba assumed the PM position. Ishiba could not, however, avoid responsibility when the LDP lost its majority in the Upper House election last July. “I could not meet the expectation for change,” Ishiba said in his resignation press conference.
 

The LDP called a presidential election on October 4. Candidates must file entry forms on September 22, when the party will officially open the election. Five candidates are reportedly willing to run for the president.
 
Former Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was the first to step forward. In his press conference to announce his candidacy, Motegi emphasized his economic policy that would increase take-home pay for many Japanese. This policy resonates with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Motegi also mentioned the possibility of building a leading coalition with the DPP or the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai) that would hold a majority in the Diet.
 
Motegi is running with the support of former colleagues in his now defunct faction, many of whom were leading the anti-Ishiba movement in the LDP after the Upper House election. He also met one-on-one with former prime minister Taro Aso, who openly opposed Ishiba. Polls have shown, however, that many Japanese did not believe that Ishiba should have resigned. This polling data may force Motegi to explain his differences with Ishiba. Motegi will have to develop a plan for party reform.
 
Other candidates try to catch up Motegi. Former Minister on Economic Security, Takayuki Kobayashi, announced his candidacy on September 16. As a candidate in the age of 50, representing young generation, Kobayashi upheld policies for young generation, including income tax cut. His team is headed by former Minister of Defense, Yasukazu Hamada, who is elected from Chiba, the same prefecture as Kobayashi.
 
Two ministers in Ishiba Cabinet showed apparent interest in the election on the same day. Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, revealed that he had told his candidacy to his supporters in his hometown, Yokosuka. Although official announcement will be later this week, it is surprising that Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead Koizumi’s team, instead of running for the president.
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, also told his intention to run for the president in his regular press conference. As a core member of Ishiba Cabinet, Hayashi insisted on succeeding policies of Ishiba administration. Supporters for Hayashi consist of lawmakers with former Kishiba faction, supposedly with backing of Kishida himself. He is expected to have another press conference to publicize his policies.
 
Former Minister on Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to officially announce her bid for the president later this week. She mainly receives supports from the conservative lawmakers who were frustrated with Ishiba administration. Reiterating a phrase of “rebuild backbone of the party,” Takaichi hopes to restore the cause of conservatives, which gained momentum in the time of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
 
Takaichi and Koizumi currently dominate. In the election last November, Takaichi finished second and Koizumi third. Both enjoyed broad public support in and did not rely on a specific faction. Takaichi has a firm base of support among conservatives. Koizumi has the support of former premier Yoshihide Suga and younger party members.
 
But neither one is likely to win in the first round. To win in the first round, a candidate must garner at least 296 votes: a majority of all 590 votes: 295 for lawmakers and 295 for local party members. In any subsequent run-off election local party members have only 47 votes. The successful candidate must win at least 171 votes out of 342.
 
If the run-off pits Takaichi against Koizumi, conservative votes, including those who have supported Kobayashi, will go for Takaichi. Koizumi does not have a similar natural group of supporters. Instead, he must appeal to Ishida’s supporters. This is a tall order because Koizumi had urged Ishiba to step down. With this history, support from some of Ishiba’s allies may be hard to get. Koizumi does have the advantage of a close relationship with the leader of Ishin, Hirofumi Yoshimura. Takaichi expects cooperation from conservative parties, such as Sanseito.

Motegi and Hayashi both rely on the power of former factions. Motegi cannot count on support from Ishiba, and Hayashi expects Ishiba’s support since he was the deputy in the prime minister’s office. But the presidential election last year proved that factions, including the Aso faction, will not suffice as voting units. The LDP factions represented outmoded politics. 
 
The opposition parties have accused the LDP of creating a political vacancy in the election process. Encouraged by public opinion polls showing that the replacement of Ishiba will not raise the LDP’s credibility, the leader of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, degraded this LDP presidential election as “a consolation match” of the previous election a year ago.