Monday Asia Events January 29, 2024

 THE INDO-PACIFIC AS JAPAN’S 21ST CENTURY GRAND STRATEGY. 1/29, Noon -1:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Harvard University. Speaker: Saori Katada, Professor of International Relations; Director, Center for International Studies, University of Southern California.

US INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY AND THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN 2024 AND BEYOND. 1/29, 1:00-3:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute. Speakers: Sharon Bomer-Lauritsen, Founder, AgTrade Strategies; Gregg Doud, President, National Milk Producers Federation; Joseph W. Glauber, Nonresident Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Vincent H. Smith, Director of Agricultural Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Craig Thorn, Partner, DTB Associates; Darci Vetter, Head of Global Public Policy, PepsiCo, Former Chief Agricultural Negotiator, Office of the US Trade Representative.

A CONVERSATION WITH REP. DARRELL ISSA ON US–SOUTH ASIA RELATIONS. 1/29, 2:00-3:00pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Rep. Darrell Issa, (R-CA), Aparna Pande, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute (India and South Asia).

GLOBAL BUSINESS SEMINAR: JAPAN'S ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT IN A CHANGING INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. 1/29, 2:00-4:50pm (JST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsors:  Cabinet Office (CAO), Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). Speakers: Mr. Marcus Schuermann, Chief Executive Officer / Delegate of German Industry and Commerce in Japan; Mr. Masanori YOSHIDA, Executive Officer, Global Chief, Japan Exchange Group, Inc.; Mr. Mitsuru MYOCHIN, Deputy Director-General for Economic and Fiscal Management, Director General of the Office of Foreign Direct Investment Promotion; Mr. Kazuya NAKAJO, Executive Vice President, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO); Mr. Satoshi TAKAMATSU, Representative Director, President and CEO, ARCALIS, Inc.; Mr. Mamoru NAKANO, Japan Country Manager, Tenstorrent Japan Inc.; Mr. Luc PEJO, CEO, Ciel Terre Japan Inc.

PURCHASE BOOK

*INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LAW & POLICY COLLOQUIUM – “UNDERGROUND EMPIRE: HOW AMERICA WEAPONIZED THE WORLD ECONOMY”. 1/29, 3:30-5:30pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Georgetown University. Speaker: Abraham Newman, Professor, Director of the Mortara Center for International Studies, Georgetown University.                                                   BYSTANDER SOCIETY: CONFORMITY AND COMPLICITY IN NAZI GERMANY AND THE HOLOCAUST. 1/29, 4:00-5:30pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speaker: author Mary Fubrook, Professor of German History, University College London.

BOOK TALK WITH JOSEPH S. NYE JR - A LIFE IN THE AMERICAN CENTURY. 1/29, 5:00-6:30pm (ET), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Aspen Strategy Group. Speaker: Author Joseph S. Nye Jr, Founder and Co-Chair, Aspen Strategy Group.

CHALLENGING CHINA: THE PHILIPPINE EXPERIENCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 1/29, 7:00-8:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: U.S- Asia Law Institute. Speaker: Jay L Batongbacal, Professor, University of the Philippines College of Law, Director, Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea of the U.P. Law Center.

Kishida's Survival Gamble

Taro Aso Will his administration survival? By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun You can find his blog, J Update here. January 21, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point The Special Investigation Division of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office has mostly wrapped up its investigation into the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) slush fund scandal. They indicted some Abe faction lawmakers and the accounting managers of the Abe, Nikai, and Kishida factions. To restore public confidence in politics, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the dissolution of his faction. Although the Abe and Nikai faction also agreed to be dissolved, the remaining three LDP factions--Aso, Motegi and Moriyama—have not. Kishida’s abrupt and unilateral decision threatens to bring about a sharp rift in the LDP. The Asahi Shimbun has reported that the public prosecutors indicted two lawmakers in the Abe faction, Yasutada Ono and Yaichi Tanigawa, on charges of violating the Political Funds Control Act. The two are specifically alleged to have failed to report funds from the faction that were derived from the sales of tickets for fundraising parties. On January 7, prosecutors had already arrested a lawmaker, Yoshitaka Ikeda. Ono was indicted in house and has denied any involvement in illegal activities. Tanigawa received a summary indictment and admitted the charge against him. Both men have left the LDP and Tanigawa has submitted his resignation from the Lower House. The accounting managers of three factions allegedly failed to report the funds relating to their faction’s fundraising parties, including the return of some proceeds of the fundraisers to the lawmakers. Amounts not reported include ¥1.3 billion for the Abe faction, ¥380 million for the Nikai faction and ¥30 million for the Kishida faction. Strangely, leading lawmakers in the Abe faction, including the “Five Guys,” were not indicted. Prosecutors interviewed them about the management of their money, but apparently did not find sufficient evidence of their participation in reporting violations. The leaders explained that the head of the faction, either former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe or former Speaker of House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hosoda controlled the unreported funds. Coincidentally, both men are deceased. Abe ended the “kickback” practice, but his successors in the LDP reversed the decision after he died in July 2022. The leaders of the Abe faction and the accounting manager said in their interviews with the prosecutors that the accounting manager decides whether the funds would be reported or not. Prosecutors failed to ask who was responsible for the decision to resume kickbacks. Another question: What is the difference between the lawmakers who were arrested or indicted and the ones who were not? Asahi and other news media have reported that the charging threshold was ¥30 million. Ono, Tanigawa and Ikeda are suspected or charged with failing to report ¥40 to ¥50 million of funds, while the Abe faction failed to report less than ¥30 million. It is true that the Abe faction’s unreported amount is lower than in the cases of the Japan Dental Federation in 2004, in which the Heisei Study Group, currently the Motegi faction, received ¥100 million, or of the office of Ichiro Ozawa, which failed to report ¥2.1 billion in 2010. However, the Abe faction has run its kickback system for nearly two decades. Ordinary people will have a hard time understanding the decision not to indict Abe faction leaders. Predictably, the approval rating of Kishida’s Cabinet did not show any upsurge (Asahi: from 23% to 23%, Yomiuri: from 25% to 24%) after the indictments were announced. Kishida had at first underplayed the reporting failures, but he changed his tune after Asahi reported the prosecutors’ plan to indict not only people with the Abe and Nikai factions, but also some with Kishida faction. He abruptly announced the dissolution of his faction to show his commitment to party reform and to limit further damage to his administration’s public standing. Kishida did not consult with other factions before announcing the dissolution of his faction. The announcement came as a surprise, if not a shock, to the LDP. Following Kishida’s announcement, the Abe and Nikai factions, both of which handled greater amounts of slush funds than the Kishida faction, called urgent assemblies and declared the dissolution of their factions. Although Kishida did not demand that other factions also dissolve, his decision effectively destroyed the two other major factions. The other three factions are in a difficult position. They are not alleged to have failed to report political funds, but they are the subject of guilt by association. The factions have stressed the positive aspects of factions as policy study groups. The leader of the Aso faction and the vice-president of LDP, Taro Aso, told Kishida that he would not dissolve his faction. This faction, as well as the Motegi and Miroyama factions will decide how to respond formally to Kishida’s action after the Political Reform Headquarters of LDP issues its interim report later this month. The structure of the Kishida administration, supported by Aso and Motegi factions, may well collapse, if Kishida does not establish an appropriate rule for the activities of factions. Some in the LDP have discussed making any faction a genuine study group, and ending their roles in the distribution of political funds, support of member campaigns, and recommendation of members for cabinet or party leadership positions. The LDP may be divided between pro- and anti-faction groups if Aso and Motegi insist on retaining theirs. Kishida’s approval rating has declined for several months. Party leaders could replace Kishida, ensuring his failure in the next general election. Kishida has, however, gambled his administration’s survival on the public’s understanding of his party’s arcane factions without explaining the purpose their fundraising.

Monday Asia Events January 22, 2024

REPORT LAUNCH: INDIA'S PRIVATE POWER MARKET- EXPANDING PRIVATE SECTOR ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION. 1/22, 8:00-9:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Vishal Kumar Dev (IAS), Principal Secretary, Energy, Government of Odisha; Dr. Praveer Sinha, MD & CEO, Tata Power.

SURVEYING U.S. AND TAIWAN EXPERTS: WHAT TO EXPECT FOR CROSS-STRAIT DYNAMICS IN 2024 AND BEYOND. 1/22, 9:30-10:30am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project and Senior Fellow for Asian Security, CSIS; Chen Ming-chi, Chief Executive Officer, Institute for National Defense and Security Research; Kristen Gunness, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation; Ivan Kanapathy, Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University; Lee Hsi-min, Senior Fellow, Project 2049 Institute.

WHAT TAIWAN’S ELECTIONS MEAN FOR THE U.S.—AND THE WORLD. 1/22, 10:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Magazine. Speaker: Raja Krishnamoorthi, U.S. Representative, Illinois’s 8th Congressional District.

BOOK TALK: RECENTERING PACIFIC ASIA: REGIONAL CHINA AND WORLD ORDER. 1/22, 2:00-3:00pm (EST), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: East-West Center in Washington. Speakers: author Brantly Womack, Senior Faculty Fellow, University of Virginia; Chas Freeman (joining virtually), Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, International Security Affairs.

Kishida's LDP reform?

Political Reform Headquarters Established Again

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 14, 2023. Special to Asia Policy Point


Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, has established in the LDP a Political Reform Headquarters [PRH, 政治刷新本部]. The PRH held its first meeting January 11. The PRH must deal with two issues: the transparency of political fundraising and the legitimacy of factions in the LDP. With the PRH, Kishida is trying to present himself as the leader of party reform. The PRH, however, lacks an ambitious idea that would fundamentally change the LDP’s deeply rooted political culture. Thus, expectations for a new-born LDP are low.

In a press conference on January 4, Kishida announced plans to set up a body to discuss political reform in the LDP. Article 79 of the LDP Constitution states that “If necessary, The President, with the consent of the General Council (GC), may establish special committees.” The General Council approved the PRH on January 10. One of the members of GC, Shigeru Ishida, demanded that all LDP member in the Diet participate.

It is not clear how much Kishida was involved in the selection of the 38 members of the PRH. They have already invited criticism: ten members are from the Abe faction – the faction suspected of systematically distributing slush funds to its members. In fact, nine out of the ten members of the Abe faction on the PRH are suspected of receiving kickbacks from party ticket income. The Abe faction occupies more seats on the PRH than any other faction, and the same number of seats as the independents.

Kishida argues that a large representation of the Abe faction is necessary to reflect the composition of the LDP. However, whether lawmakers suspected of being involved in a scandal can discuss party reform is an open question. Asahi Shimbun reported two days after the PRH’s first meeting that nine of the ten members from Abe faction were suspected of accepting secret funds from the faction. Kishida has yet to put to rest doubts about legitimacy of the PRH.

The PRH will submit an interim report to Kishida before the opening of the ordinary session of the Diet on January 26. Kishida said at the first meeting: “The people keep a skeptical eye on the factions and the political funds of the LDP. The LDP needs to change itself to restore confidence and protect democracy in Japan.”

The PRH’s first order of business is to enhance the transparency of political funds. Some have urged amending the Political Funds Control Act in the next Diet session to lower the threshold for reporting the names of buyers of fundraising party tickets from ¥200 thousand or more to ¥50 thousand. Other reforms would include stricter penalties for violations and the loss of status for a lawmaker when his or her accounting manager is found guilty of a violation.

The LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito, has demanded that the LDP’s fundraising reforms include disclosure of previously unreported expenditures by lawmakers of funds distributed by the LDP. There has been no discussion in the leading parties about a prohibition on fundraising parties.

Two independent members of the PRH have argued for the abolition of factions in the LDP. In the PRH meeting, independent member former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that the abolition of factions would be understandable to the public. Another independent member, son of former Junichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro Koizumi, concurred.

To the independent members, factions are the source of the slush fund scandal. But most lawmakers believe that factions are necessary. The LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi argues that the factions educate young politicians, a task that the LDP as a whole has not taken up. Because the Kishida Administration relies on support from of the Aso, Moteki and Kishida factions, Kishida surely does not intend to eliminate them.

Other members have urged the LDP look back to the Political Reform Guidelines of 1989. At the time, public distrust in the party caused by the Recruit Scandal, in which realtor Recruit Cosmos distributed unlisted stocks to party members, the LDP restricted fundraising parties and demanded that the LDP president, secretary general and other board members leaving their factions.

But now, Kishida was the head of his faction until the slush fund scandal was revealed. Vice President Taro Aso and Secretary General Motegi continue to lead their factions. The faction leaders have argued that the factions are no more than study groups. That can only be true if their factions are independent of political fundraising, election strategy, and the selection of cabinet ministers or LDP board members.

Faction leaders also have said that political fundraising is a necessary cost of democracy. That could have been true before the LDP was established. But post-war Japanese politics is replete with scandals about secret funds, including the incidents involving Showa Denko, shipbuilding, Lockheed, and Recruit. The most notable reform came from outside the LDP: the Hosokawa Administration (9 August 1993 – 28 April 1994) created a subsidy for the parties in order to avoid secret political funds.

Former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi (30 July 1998 – 5 April 2000) established an Executive Headquarters for Political System Reform Headquarters (政治制度改革本部) in 1999. This “headquarters” had its name changed twice: Party Reform Executive Headquarters [党改革実行本部] (2004-2010) and Executive Headquarters for Reform of Party and Political System [党・政治制度改革実行本部] (2010-2021).

In 2021, Kishida again renamed the “headquarters” to the Party Reform Executive Headquarters [党改革実行本部]. So, what is the difference between the 2021 headquarters and 2024 PRH? The only explanation is that by establishing a new organization focused on "political reform" without any specific idea for party reform Kishida hopes to deflect attention away from his ailing Administration to the tainted LDP. He believes this will garner him the public’s support. Maybe

Kishida's Difficult New Year

It Can Always Get Worse

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
January 7, 2023. Special to Asia Policy Point

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida enters the new year with new problems. The slush fund scandal continues to invite distrust with the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) factions. Adding to public skepticism is the Kishida administration’s handling of the great earthquake in Noto Peninsula, an airplane collision at Haneda International Airport. Kishida must master these issues if his administration is to survive.

At the very beginning of the year, Kishida spoke of ending Japan’s decades-long deflation. In the new year’s reflection published January 1, he planned to free 2024 from the country’s deflationary mindset and its cost-cutting tendencies. “We need to have the public and private sectors work together so that everyone in the public feels tangibly what it is like for wages to rise and disposable incomes to increase,” said Kishida, aiming to achieve wage increases that surpass rises in prices.

But even before the end of New Year’s Day, a great earthquake with a magnitude 7.6 hit Noto Peninsula. In a press conference immediately thereafter, Kishida announced the establishment of a headquarters for disaster management and his personal leadership for delivering necessary support for the victims. He canceled his ritual visit to the Ise Jingu and stayed in Tokyo to supervise relief efforts.

Although the Japan Meteorological Agency issued warnings for a tsunami in the coastal areas facing the Sea of Japan, the damage caused by the earthquake was not as great as that resulting from the Great Northeast Japan Earthquake in 2011. The area including the Noto Peninsula, however, is home to many nuclear power plants. While there have not been reports of power plant accidents on the peninsula, a public debate over the safety of nuclear power plants is emerging.

Kishida has held daily press conferences to update the country on the situation on the peninsula and the measures his government has taken. The task is daunting. Aftershocks from the earthquake have damaged roads and other transportation infrastructure, making it difficult to send food, water or fuel to the peninsula. A major fire in Wajima City caused many deaths. The flu and Covid are becoming more prevalent in the shelters.

Considering the lessons of previous great earthquakes, Kishida announced that he would spend the reserve in the FY 2023 budget for reconstruction and increase the reserve in the draft of FY 2024 budget. Kishida has sought the cooperation of the leaders of the five parties, but they will find it difficult to agree even in face of appearing in opposition to disaster aid. Thus far, Kishida seems to be managing the disaster well, but he cannot afford any mistakes.  

The very next day after the earthquake, a Japan Airlines (JAL) passenger jet was landing on a runway at Haneda Airport when it collided with a Japan Coast Guard (JCG) plane. Both planes caught fire, and JCG plane exploded, causing five deaths. In a near miracle, the crew and passengers of the JAL plane evacuated before the plane was incinerated.

According to the record of traffic control, the JCG plane had not been given permission to enter the runway. But the record also indicated that the air traffic controller did not notice that the JCG plane was on the runway when the JAL plane was landing. As if to amplify this disaster, the JCG plane was on its way to Niigata to deliver relief to the Noto Peninsula earthquake victims. The Kishida administration needs to make a better effort to determine the cause of accident, and it must take measures to prevent any similar accidents.

The disasters took Kishida’s attention away from the slush fund scandal, which keeps developing. The Tokyo Public Prosecutors Office has interviewed lawmakers in the Abe faction, including Hakubun Shimomura, the former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The prosecutors have also raided the offices of the Abe faction and two lawmakers, one of whom, Yoshitaka Ikeda was arrested. The leader of the Nikai faction, Toshihiro Nikai, was also interviewed. As investigation continues, public trust in the government erodes.

In the press conference on January 4^th, the fifth of 2024 and ordinarily the first conference in the new year, Kishida emphasized his determination to restore public confidence. “I am leading the effort of reforming LDP,” Kishida said. He announced the creation of a new office in the LDP to enhance the transparency of political funds and to set rules for faction activity.

However, Kishida did not identify any specific political reforms. The leading parties have suggested that the threshold for reporting political funds should be lowered from ¥200 thousand to ¥50 thousand. Asked about it, Kishida was non-committal and said that it would be an issue for the parties to discuss in the Diet.
Kishida has said that he is working on other matters that cannot be postponed, such as wage increases, growth in the national birthrate, and international security.  But given his administration’s low approval rating, political ethics should be the very “issue that cannot be postponed.”

The ordinary session of the Diet convenes later this month. The FY 2024 budget bill will pass the Diet by the end of March. It is likely that the lawmakers will talk about a possible snap election of House of Representatives in April or later. If the idea that Kishida is too weak to survive a snap election grows, there will be a movement in the LDP to replace Kishida as prime minister. Kishida must restore confidence so that he will be reelected in LDP presidential election in the fall.

Monday Asia Events January 8, 2024

BOOK TALK: SCALING UP DEVELOPMENT IMPACT. 1/8, 9:00-10:15am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for Global Development (CGD). Speakers: Johannes Linn, Co-Chair, Scaling Community of Practice; John Floretta, Global Deputy Executive Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL); Veronica Zavala, Former Peruvian Minister of Transport and Communications, Former General Manager for Central America, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).  PURCHASE BOOK.

*OLD RIGHT, NEW RIGHT? WHAT HISTORY SUGGESTS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF GOP FOREIGN POLICY. 1/8, 11:00am-12:30pm (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Cato Institute. Speakers: Brandan P. Buck, PhD Candidate, George Mason University; Victoria Coates, Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, Heritage Foundation; Justin Logan, Director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.

The Decoupling of the Abe Faction

JAPAN POINT ⚫️ 日本ポイント

research on contemporary Japan
Vol. VII, No. 3, December 18, 2023

by Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow
retired chief editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun


On Thursday, December 14, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida replaced four Cabinet Ministers affiliated with the faction founded by Shinzo Abe (Seiwa-kai) in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This faction is suspected of having distributed secret slush funds to its members. On the same day, two LDP board members also submitted their resignations to Kishida, reportedly in frustration with Kishida singling out the Abe faction in connection with the growing political funds scandal.

A deep rift is appearing within the ruling LDP. At his Thursday press conference, Kishida did not explain how he, as LDP president, would take responsibility for the expanding scandal. “I will deal with this issue, becoming a fireball, at the frontline of the LDP for restoring the people’s credibility,” Kishida just said. Even after removing the Abe faction Cabinet ministers, the Kishida administration is in jeopardy.

The Prime Minister also emphasized that he will promote party reform while watching closely the Tokyo Prosecutor’s investigation. The direction of the reforms will be based on who is ultimately arrested or indicted. Kishida suggested that there may be a discussion on amending the Political Funds Control Act or reconsidering the roles of factions in LDP politics. He concluded that he cannot afford to think about a snap election or a Cabinet reshuffle until after the budget bill for FY 2024 passes the Diet in March.

Kishida replaced Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno with the recently former Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoshimasa Hayashi, who serves as the titular head of the Kishida faction. Matsuno reportedly received over ¥10 million of secret money from the sales of fundraising party tickets. The Asahi Shimbun reported that Kishida first offered the post to former Minister of Defense Yasukazu Hamada, but he declined.

Ken Saito, a former Minister of Justice, succeeded Yasutoshi Nishimura, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. Kishida also replaced the Minister for Internal Affairs and Communication, Junji Suzuki, with former Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto as well the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Ichiro Miyashita, with former Minister of State for Regional Revitalization Tetsushi Sakamoto. Matsuno, Nishimura, Suzuki and Miyashita are reportedly all implicated in the slush funds scandal.

[Backgrounds of the new Cabinet Members will be the subject of the next Japan Point]

The Chairman of the LDP’s Policy Research Council, Koichi Hagiuda, and the Chairman of the LDP Diet Affairs, Tsuyoshi Takagi, handed in their resignations on Thursday. Although Kishida had not said unequivocally that they would be replaced, these two leaders of the Abe faction nevertheless walked out. Some in the Abe faction interpreted their departures as a protest against Kishida’s focus only on the Abe faction’s wrongdoing. The Kishida and Nikai factions are also said to have distributed secret flush funds to their faction members.

One of the members of the Abe faction, State Minister of Defense Hiroyuki Miyazawa revealed on Wednesday that he had been instructed by the faction not to record money received in the political funds report and to not say anything about it. The Special Investigation Department of the Tokyo Public Prosecutor's Office will conduct further interviews with Abe faction members.

In the press conference at the closing of Diet session on Thursday, Kishida said that he regretted the doubts that had arisen about the LDP’s use of political funds. He promised reforms to restore the party’s credibility, but did not identify any specific measures. “I will make it clear based on the facts which will be confirmed later,” is all that Kishida said about the reforms. This could mean that if the criminal investigation is focused solely on the Abe faction, Kishida would have a basis for removing the Abe faction from the LDP.

This was a very unusual comment by the top LDP leader. LDP leaders have in past said that “When a scandal is revealed, the politician is responsible for explaining it for him/herself.” This time, no one in the Abe faction said anything about the scandal and has said only that the investigation is ongoing. Nevertheless, Kishida has ousted only members of the Abe faction, as if only the Abe faction violated the law. LDP members no doubtless will regard Kishida’s comments as hostile to the Abe faction.

Excluding the Abe faction does not mean that all the problems in the Kishida administration have been solved. Other factions including Kishida’s own are responsible for LDP secret money scandals as well. If someone in the LDP is eventually arrested, Kishida, as the party’s president, will not be able to escape responsibility.

It is likely that ethics in politics will be one of the hottest topics in the Diet session beginning January of next year. The Constitutional Democratic Party has established an investigation team to look into fundraising parties in preparation for debates over amendments to the Political Funds Control Act. The CDP has argued that the LDP should hand its administration over to the opposition.

What the other parties are most afraid of is an abrupt counterattack by Kishida: dissolution of the House of Representatives and a new general election. However, the Kishida administration now lacks the political power to do so. The latest Jiji poll showed that the approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet has dropped as low as 17.1 percent.“ Kishida can never have a snap election,” said the President of Komeito, Natuso Yamaguchi, in a radio interview, “because he has no cause to do it without any effort to restore public credibility on the politics.”

Other poll results on the Cabinet’s approval rating are: 16% (-5) of approval rate for the Kishida Cabinet and 17% (-7) for the LDP in Mainichi Shimbun; 22.3% (-6.0) and 26.0%(-8.1) in the Kyodo News; 23% (-2) and 23% (-4) in the Asahi Shimbun; 25%(+1) and 28% (±0) in the Yomiuri Shimbun; 26% (-4) and 30% (-4) in the Nikkei Shimbun. In the Yomiuri poll, the most popular pick for next the prime minister was Shigeru Ishiba (20%) followed by Shinjiro Koizumi (17%), and Taro Kono (12%).



Kishida may hope for a snap election before the LDP presidential election next fall.The last chance for him to dissolve the House would be sometime between the passage of the FY 2024 budget bill in March and the end of the ordinary session of the Diet in the middle of June, if the session is not extended. Although the best timing for him would be just after his state visit to United States , which is expected in April, there is no guarantee that his approval rating will improve by then or after.


OBSERVATION FROM WASHINGTON
A Scare for Japan Managers

by APP Washington

Prime Minister Kishida has done a bit of house cleaning, even though it was forced by the Tokyo Prosecutor’s Office. The result is likely to lessen the influence of the conservative nationalists in Japan’s government. The ministers and party officials removed were among Japan’s most conservative, history denier politicians. These are also the men with whom Washington’s Japan managers had or were cultivating closer ties.

It was Prime Minister Abe and his supporters who had the government commit millions of on-and off-budget funds to public relations. The primary focus of these efforts has been to scrub clean Japan’s wartime history and re-fantasize Japanese culture, all to advance a military alliance. The Abe government coordinated with private Japanese foundations to expand support of Washington think tanks, congressional programs, and Japanese-American cultural organizations. They also encouraged the efforts by Japanese nationalist organizations such Happy Science, Worldmate (Handa), and the Unification Church to build relationships with American rightwing groups such as the American Conservative Union’s CPAC as a way to access Trump and MAGA politicians.

The demise of the conservative nationalist Abe faction and the sidelining of its supporters suggest that the era of easy funding for Washington institutions involved with Japan-focused research and cultural activities is coming to an end. The removal of the conservative nationalists from the Japanese administration may also signal a shift away from defense budget increases and increasing alignment with the U.S. on security policies. The “Alliance” may become less a subject of support and study. This all presupposes that the coming changes are as ideological as they are political.

Monday Asia Events December 18, 2023

THE PERILS OF CORPORATE ENGAGEMENT WITH CHINA. 12/18, 10:00-11:00am (EST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: John Noonan, Senior Advisor, Polaris National Security; Thomas J. Duesterberg, Senior Fellow; David Asher, Senior Fellow; Miles Yu, Senior Fellow and Director, China Center. 

POSSIBILITIES AND PERILS OF CHINA’S PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. 12/18, 10:00-11:00am (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute. Speakers: Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow, China in the Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; William Figueroa, Assistant Professor, History and Theory of International Relations, University of Groningen; Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President, Quincy Institute. 

FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTER ELINA VALTONEN ON THE FUTURE OF US-FINLAND RELATIONS. 12/18, 3:15-5:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Hudson Institute. Speakers: Luke Coffey, Senior Fellow; Elina Valtonen, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Finland. 

CREATING A SAFE, SECURE, AND HEALTHY GLOBAL NUCLEAR INDUSTRY. 12/18, 4:00-5:00pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: American Nuclear Society. Speakers: J'Tia Hart, Chief Science Officer, National and Homeland Security Directorate, INL; Anagha Iyengar, Deputy Program Director for Analytics and Innovation, NNSA Office of International Nuclear Security; William Tobey, former Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, NNSA. 

IN TAIWAN: TIME FOR A CHANGE? 12/18, 7:00- 8:30 pm (EST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Harvard University. Speakers: Lev Nachman, National Cheng-chih University; Sarah Newland, Smith College; Tsai Chia-hung, National Cheng-chih University. 

Change Coming to Japan's Administration

Possible Power Shift in the LDP

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
December 11, 2023. Special to Asia Policy Point

The expanding money scandals in Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) factions promises a significant power shift in the party, and maybe the government. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida must replace those Cabinet and LDP board members who have been identified receiving secret money from their factions. So far, the focus has been on the Seiwa-kai (Abe faction) that has controlled the party and government since most of this century. As a result, it is expected that the Abe faction will lose its grip on Kishida administration.

Most LDP factions, however, including Kishida’s own, are not free of scandal. Although Kishida will reshuffle his Cabinet this week after the Diet session ends on the 13th, the magnitude of the scandal has yet to be determined. It is also unclear how the political damage will affect Abe-era policies.

At the beginning, the scandal looked like some mistakes of each faction in reporting about money of fundraising parties. But it entered another phase when the existence of secret money was revealed. Some factions returned the money received for fundraiser tickets to their members without disclosing them on the political funds report. Abe’s faction imposed a quota on each member for the sales of party tickets, and if a member had sold beyond the quota, the surplus was returned to the member.

The amount of money recorded on political funds report of the Abe faction was the least among five suspected factions in 2022. This faction is the largest in the LDP, and it seems implausible that they could disclose the smallest amount of money received for fundraising parties. Indeed, it strongly indicates that the Abe faction had a great amount of unrecorded secret money.

The first target of the media was Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Hirokazu Matsuno. Matsuno has reportedly received about ¥10 million (approximately USD69,000) from the Abe faction as the surplus for ticket sales beyond his quota between 2018 and 2022. As the secretary general of the Abe faction between 2019 and 2021, Matsuno would certainly have known about the money coming in and going out of the faction. Nevertheless, as CCS, the spokesperson of the Kishida Cabinet, he refused to answer any questions about the secret money in a recent press conference.

Asahi Shimbun reported that other leaders of the Abe faction are suspected of having received surpluses as well. They include all of the “Five Leaders” of the Abe faction: the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry; Yasutoshi Nishimura; the Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, Koichi Hagiuda; the Chairman of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee, Tsuyoshi Takagi; the Secretary General of the LDP Upper House Caucus, Hiroshige Seko; and the head of the Abe faction, Ryu Shionoya.

According to another news report, Prime Minister Kishida has decided to replace all of these Five Leaders. Moreover, it is possible that all the ministers from Abe faction, including State Ministers and Parliamentary Vice-ministers, will be discharged from the administration. However, it is not easy to organize an administration without any member of the biggest faction in the controlling party. Accordingly, some members of the Abe faction without deep involvement in the scandal may be staying.

The Abe faction has been exercising its power in the Kishida administration from the beginning and maintained it even after Abe died. Increases in the defense budget and Kishida’s support for a constitutional amendment would expand the military’s authority beyond self-defense have been necessary to gain the support of the Abe faction. If most or all of the Abe faction is forced out of the administration as a result of the scandal, Kishida may be able to focus on his own issues such as raising birth rate and shifting economic policy from growth to redistribution.

Yet Kishida would not have an entirely free hand and will have to balance different considerations. On the one hand, even if Kishida is successful in establishing a new administration without representatives of the Abe faction, Kishida will still need to appease the faction. Otherwise, the faction may protest against Kishida or leave LDP. On the other hand, in order to raise his already low approval rating, Kishida must make fundamental reforms in the LDP.

To assuage the public, Kishida has stepped down as the head of his own faction and ordering all the factions in the LDP to halt fundraising parties for some time. But the opposition parties have promoted a theory that the scandal is not only a violation of the Political Fund Control Act but also a tax evasion scheme. At a minimum, the LDP must be more transparent in dealing with political contributions and begin to discuss amendments to the laws governing fundraising parties.

Reforms could bring new leadership to the LDP. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made LDP reform the ultimate goal of his administration. And he was successful at it.

When Koizumi ran for president in 2001, Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s administration was under the control of Heisei-ken of the Motegi faction. To limit the rule of Heisei-ken, Koizumi pursued no-faction politics, excluding any recommendations from the LDP factions when reshuffling his Cabinet and the LDP board.

In 2004, Heisei-ken’s control ended for good with the discovery of a secret donation from the Japan Dental Federation to the Heisei-ken headed by Ryutaro Hashimoto. There are several parallels between those events and the current scandal.

The 2004 scandal and the subsequent reforms enabled Koizumi to take over the political power of the factions and consolidate power to the prime minister’s faction. Only one faction survived -- the Seiwa-kai -- which Koizumi had headed just before he took office as prime minister. Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda retained the one-faction politics and were regarded as Seiwa-kai premiers. The faction’s control has lasted about two decades except when Democratic Party of Japan led the government.

By contrast with Koizumi and Abe, Kishida has had to oversee multi-faction politics and maintain a delicate balance among the factions. At first under the control of Abe’s faction, Kishida has gradually come to rely upon the factions led by Taro Aso and Toshimitsu Motegi. The current scandal is an opportunity for Kishida rid his administration of the influence of Seiwa-kai. It will be fatal if these money scandals are found to spread beyond the Abe faction.

Internal LDP politics and scandals aside, Kishida is facing his own challenges. He has been unable to explain his meeting with the leaders of organizations closely related to the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (the Moonies). Asahi Shimbun reported that the leaders of Unification Church’s United States Branch, Michael Jenkins, and of the Japan branch of Universal Peace Federation, Masayoshi Kajikuri, met with Kishida and former Speaker of U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. The mishandling of an explanation will be fatal to the Kishida administration.

Thus, although Kishida is likely to succeed in eliminating the influence of the biggest faction in the LDP, he must show the public a new version of LDP politics, and himself.

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Why Kishida is Changing His Cabinet

Faction Scandals Shake Kishida’s Administration

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
December 2, 2023. Special to Asia Policy Point

“When three people get together, they make a faction. A faction is natural community in a society, and not so bad.” This has been the justification for the factions within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), particularly when they compete on political or money issues. Acting as an umbrella organization, the LDP can criticize any particular faction that goes rogue. However, the latest scandal, which concerns violations of the Political Funds Control Act, involves all the factions within the LDP and leaves the party with no opportunity to discipline a particular faction.

The Special Investigation Division of Tokyo Public Prosecutors Office has been investigating whether the LDP’s five major factions failed to report their income through fundraising parties between 2018 and 2021. The factions are the Seiwa-kai (Abe faction), Shisui-kai (Nikai faction), Heisei-ken (Motegi Group), Shiko-kai (Aso faction) and Kochi-kai (Kishida faction). As the president of LDP, Kishida urged each faction, including his own, to file corrected reports.

The Japan Communist Party’s Akahata Shimbun first broke this story in November 2022. Akahata reported that the five major LDP factions concealed their income, totaling about ¥25 million. A law professor at Kobe Gakuin University, Hiroshi Kamiwaki, thereafter, submitted allegations to the prosecutor’s office, arguing that the hidden income of would amount about ¥40 million between 2018 and 2021. Unreported income was also accumulated in 2022.

On the basis of the submission, the special investigation office began the investigation of the five factions, interviewing the officers of each faction.

The Political Funds Control Act requires each political organization, including each faction in the LDP, to report the names of buyers of tickets to party functions and the amount, when the sales to a buyer exceed ¥200 thousand. All of the LDP factions allegedly failed to report significant purchases: ¥19 million by the Abe faction, ¥9 million by the Nikai faction, ¥6 million by the Motegi faction, ¥4 million by the Aso faction, and ¥2 million by the Kishida faction.

In the discussion at the Committee on Budget of the House of Representatives, the head of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Kenta Izumi, asked Prime Minister Kishida what he knew about the scandal. “It was reported that there were some mishandlings on the political funding reports and they are in the process of correction,” said Kishida.

Kishida did not seem to have realized that there are serious doubts about his compliance with the law since he remains in charge of his faction. Prime ministers typically leave their factions when they take office in order to show some semblance of impartiality. But Kishida did not take this route and has continued at the head of his faction. He thus cannot escape responsibility for the operations of his faction, as previous prime ministers might have done.

News reports are now focusing on the use of the hidden money. The Abe faction is suspected of distributing the money to its member lawmakers. Distributions allegedly ranged from one hundred to several hundred million between 2018 and 2022.

The distributions would have arisen from ticket sales to the annual fundraising parties of the factions. Historically, these parties are subject to fewer regulations than direct contributions. Ticket sales of less than ¥200 thousand for a person do not have to be reported. The host of a party can receive all the proceeds of ticket sales after catering room fees have been paid.

The Abe faction imposes a quota of ticket sales each member, depending on the selling capacity of each member. The tickets are priced at ¥20 thousand each. The buyers are usually the business owners. Proceeds of the sales go to the faction. If the amount of sales for one buyer exceeds ¥200 thousand it should be recorded in the faction’s political fund report.

So, what happens when a member exceeds his or her quota? The Abe faction is suspected returning the surplus to the member without reporting it. The more tickets a member sells, the more he/she will be rewarded. The member can use the money in his or her own election campaign. It will be secret money free from any regulation. The return of funds to a member has been referred to as a “kickback” scheme

The chairman of the Abe faction, Ryu Shionoya, has admitted that the faction had been sending back the surplus to each member. But he later retreated, saying that he had not confirmed the facts. Two former secretaries general of the Abe faction, who are in the Kishida Cabinet, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimuira, did not directly answer a question about the secret money of a kickback arrangement in their press conferences. The prosecutors are investigating whether the same kickback system exists in other factions.

This latest scandal casts some doubt over the future of factions. While the factions take the form of policy study groups, they in fact work essentially to support the political activities of their members. When one lawmaker holds a fundraising party, colleagues of the same faction will attend and make speeches that praise the host politician and urge the audience to support him/her. The factions promote their candidates for the presidency, and the president usually becomes prime minister. This is a typical and traditional style of politics in LDP.

It is undeniable that this kind of politics is becoming obsolete. Old-time factions have been under the strong leadership of big bosses who could collect a great amount of money, but this system can no longer survive changes in the vehicles for politics and money raising. Lawmakers now have various methods of fundraising or communicating each other through internet.

As seen in the selection of ministers in the cabinet reshuffle in September, the Kishida administration is dependent on the balance of increasingly outmoded factions. That selection caused the consecutive resignations of several State Ministers or Parliamentary Vice-minister, contributing to a decline in the Kishida Administration’s approval rating. Kishida must realize the latest scandals will upset the balance on which his administration relies.