Is Japan’s Postwar Pacifism Ending?

Mitsubishi A6M3 Zero Model 22

Takaichi Seeks a Military-Industrial Complex

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Asia Policy Point
Former editorial writer for the Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
November 3, 2026

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is accelerating connections between defense and business. Her government has proposed a new corporation to enhance the defense industries, which will formally establish a military-industrial complex. The corporation will cooperate with foreign countries to develop weapons. Takaichi dismisses criticism of Japan’s new militarization. Taken to its logical conclusion, her policy will upend 80 years of a national security policy that has with few exceptions kept Japan at peace with the rest of the world.

The Takaichi administration is working on revisions to three foundational defense documents – the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program. The administration plans to finish the work by the end of this year. In a meeting of defense experts on October 27, the administration unveiled an initiative entitled “Positive Cycle of Defense and Economy.” The premise of the initiative is that Japan must have a strong economy to change its national defense strategy – one that is compatible with the rapid development of such technology as AI and drones. .

To prepare for the technology-driven “new warfare” and to strengthen the nation’s capacity to respond, the government intends to strengthen the industrial base for defense. It hopes to launch a new corporation to support defense businesses. With the backing of the Ministry of Defense (MOD) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the corporation will encourage the defense industry to expand production, promote the export of defense equipment, and encourage innovation in defense technology.

This work will require an increase in the defense budget, an action that the United States has vigorously encouraged. It is likely that METI initiated the idea of connecting defense with the economy: for METI, economic growth is everything. For her part, Takaichi welcomes any hawkish agenda to attract her political base. Although promotion of military business faces considerable opposition -- consider former U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower’s warning in his 1961 farewell address against the emergence of a “military-industrial complex” – bravely grappling with a divisive agenda is Takaichi’s selling point as the prime minister.

Takaichi does not rule out a tax increase to fund a greater defense budget. History suggests that an increase is unavoidable. To cover a 43 trillion-yen defense budget for five years beginning in fiscal year 2023, the government raised income taxes, corporate taxes. and the tobacco tax. Currently, however, METI expects higher revenues from the current corporate rate since these revenues have been increasing as corporate profits have improved. The growth of the defense industry as Takaichi has planned could be compensation for business sectors that have suffered from a corporate tax hike.

The Takaichi administration has been exploring a change in the definition of “defense budget” to show that its defense budget was up to two percent of GDP. The government has in the past included expenditures on defense budget research and on construction in 2022 of defense infrastructure. The Takaichi administration is now discussing including costs for energy supplies and for building railroads. These are nothing but measures to meet the demand of the Trump administration that allies increase defense spending.

After it removed the five categories that restricted exports of defense equipment in April, the Takaichi government has been seeking to expand weapons exports. One vehicle for this effort is the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a project that Japan has joined with like-minded countries. The GCAP is a common framework with the United Kingdom and Italy for the development of sixth generation fighter jets to replace the Euro Fighter Typhoon in Europe and the F-2 in the Japan Air Self-defense Force.

Germany hopes to join the GCAP. In the summit meeting with Takaichi in Tokyo on October 28, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Japan to agree to Germany’s participation. Because the UK has encountered domestic financial difficulties for its participation in the GCAP, Germany may be able to accelerate the project if it joins. But Japan has some concerns about adding Germany. German participation will invite an overall revision of member countries’ roles, which may delay future schedules. A military defense framework of Japan, Italy, and Germany, independent of the U.S., might remind one of Tripartite Pact in 1940.

Also on October 28, Japan deepened its security cooperation with the U.S. The Minister of Defense, Shinjiro Koizumi, agreed with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to share information on anti-ballistic missiles and to establish a final assembly and check-out facility for air-to-air missiles in Japan. Koizumi followed up on “Operation Supercharge” to accelerate cooperation on bilateral defense equipment. Koizumi emphasized that Japan’s intent was to strengthen defense capabilities to deter unilateral changes to the status quo. He specifically noted China’s advances in the Pacific Ocean.

Under the name of economic growth, Japan seems ready to unleash its defense industry, disregarding criticism of its advance to a merchant of death. Takaichi is further considering Japan’s possession of nuclear-powered submarines. Japan has never had these vessels since they conflict with its longstanding position as an anti-nuclear country.

Japan has three anti-nuclear principles: no production, no possession, and no introduction. However, Takaichi wants to narrow the interpretation of the “no introduction” principle in the upcoming revision of the three defense documents. Her hawkish coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, shares this aim, but most among Takaichi’s own party, the Liberal Democrats are reluctant to weaken any of the three principles. Public protests on Culture Day (November 3), the 80th anniversary of the promulgation of Japan postwar constitution disavowing war emphasized voter opposition. Hard discussions about the three defense documents will be had through the end of this year.