Our grief shared with Squirrel Hill

Thanatos created by Karl Bitter

Green Mount Cemetery at Montpelier, Vermont

Monday in Washington, October 29, 2018

THINKING STRATEGICALLY ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS CHALLENGES IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA. 10/29, 10:00-11:00am. Sponsor: Heritage. Speakers: Jung Pak, Senior Fellow, Brookings; Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director, Committee for Human Rights in North Korea; Dan Aum, Director of the DC Office, National Bureau for Asian Research; moderator: Olivia Enos, Policy Analyst, Asian Studies Center, Heritage. Webcast

click to order

EBOLA THEN AND NOW: LESSONS TO RESHAPE OUR STRATEGIES AMIDST NEW OUTBREAKS. 10/29, 10:30am-Noon. Sponsor: Center for Global Development (CGD). Speakers: Oliver Johnson, Visiting Lecturer, King’s College London; Jeremy Konyndyk, Senior Policy Fellow, CGD; Carleigh Krubiner, Policy Fellow, CGD; Sinead Walsh, Ireland Ambassador to Sierra Leone; moderator: Reid Wilson, Correspondent, Hill. Webcast

HEROES OF CHARACTER. 10/29, 11:00am-Noon. Sponsor: Heritage. Speaker: Author Lawrence Reed, President, Foundation for Economic Education, Former President, Mackinac Center for Public Policy in Michigan, Real Heroes: Inspiring True Stories of Courage, Character and Conviction; moderator: Romina Boccia, Director, Center for the Federal Budget, Heritage. Webcast

click to order

JUNGLE GROWS BACK: AMERICA AND OUR IMPERILED WORLD. 10/29, 2:00-3:15pm. Sponsor: German Marshall Fund (GMF). Speakers: Dr. Robert Kagan, Author, Stephen & Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings; Dr. Emily Haber, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United States; Moderator: Dr. Karen Donfried, President, GMF.

HEALTH SECURITY AND NORTH KOREA: ADVANCE FILM SCREENING AND DISCUSSION. 10/29, 2:00-4:00pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Shanelle Hall, Deputy Executive Director, UNICEF; Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, CSIS; Kee B. Park, Paul Farmer Global Surgery Scholar, Harvard Medical School; Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, CSIS; moderator: J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS. 

TRUMP-DRIVEN POLARIZATION REFLECTS DIVERGENT VIEWS OF AMERICA’S FUTURE: FINDINGS FROM THE 2018 AMERICAN VALUES SURVEY. 10/29, 2:00-4:00pm. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Robert P. Jones, CEO, PRRI; Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow, AEI; E.J. Dionne, Jr., W. Averell Harriman Chair and Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution; William A. Galston, Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Janelle Wong, Professor of American Studies, University of Maryland. 

FRENCH AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES THE EVOLVING U.S.-FRENCH RELATIONSHIP. 10/29, 3:00-4:00pm. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Amb. Gérard Araud, Ambassador of France to the US; moderator: Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, Hudson. 

click to order

NORTH KOREA: UNDERSTANDING AND EXPLOITING THE MOST RECLUSIVE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE TARGET. 10/29, 4:30-5:30pm. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics (IWP). Speakers: Jihyun (Amanda) Won, Student, IWP, MA in Government, Johns Hopkins. 

VIEW OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY OVER 60 YEARS THROUGH THE EYES OF WILLIAM F. BUCKLEY, JR. AND THE MOVEMENT HE FOUNDED WITH ALVIN S. FELZENBERG. 10/29, 5:00-7:00pm. Sponsor: Elliott School, GWU. Speaker: author Alvin S. Felzenberg, Professor of Communications and Political Science, Annenberg School for Communications, University of Pennsylvania.

INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION IN HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT. 10/29, 5:30-6:30pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: Dr. Jeanette Epps, Astronaut, NASA, Former Technical Specialist, Ford Motor Company; moderator: Nina Easton, Senior Associate, CSIS, Co-Chair, Fortune Global Forum. Webcast.

Monday in Washington, October 22, 2018

RUSSIAN DIMENSION IN US-CHINA RELATIONS. 10/22, Noon-2:00pm. Sponsor: Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues, GTU. Speaker: Dr. Peter Clement, Visiting Senior Research Scholar, Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, former Deputy Assistant Director for Europe, CIA.

CAREFUL REVIEW OF ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS: ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECT ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. 10/22, Noon-2:00pm, Lunch. Sponsors: Leadership, Ethics and Practice Initiative, Elliot School, GW; Institute for International Science and Technology Policy, GW. Speaker: Jason Matheny, Assistant Director, National Intelligence.

INDO-PACIFIC ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE: FROM BLUEPRINT TO REALITY. 10/22, Noon-1:30pm. Sponsor: Snowcroft Center, Atlantic Council. Speakers: Dr. Robert Dohner, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center, Atlantic Council; Dr. Ken Jimbo, Professor, Keio University; Dr. Cheol Hee Park, Visiting Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center, Atlantic Council; Dr. Akihiko Tamura, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; Moderator: Dr. Miyeon Oh, Director and Senior Fellow, Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center, Atlantic Council.

THE NEW DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE: A CONVERSATION WITH EXELON CEO CHRIS CRANE. 10/22, 2:00-3:15pm. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Chris Crane, President and Chief Executive Officer Exelon Corporation; MODERATOR: David G. Victor, Co-Chair - Cross-Brookings Initiative on Energy and Climate.
CHINA BUILDS FOR GLOBAL POWER PROJECTION. 10/22, 4:30-5:30pm. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics (IWP). Speaker: Rick Fisher, Senior Fellow on Asian Military Affairs, International Assessment and Strategy Center.

U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AND THE THUCYDIDES TRAP: HOW RISING POWERS AND ESTABLISHED POWERS RELATE. 10/22, 6:30-8:45pm. Sponsors: US Former Member of Congress (FMC); Committee of 100; Elliott School, GW. Speakers: Dan Maffei, Former US Representative (D-NY), Commissioner, Federal Maritime Commission; David Shambaugh, Director, China Policy Program, Elliott School, GW; Robert Gee, Former Assistant Secretary of Energy, President, Gee Strategies Group LLC.

Monday in Washington, October 15, 2018

TAIWAN’S VIBRANT DEMOCRACY AND ITS IMPACT ON ASIA AND US. 10/15, 12:15-2:00pm. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Derek Mitchell, President, National Democratic Institute; Harry Harding, Ph.D., University Professor and Professor of Public Policy, University of Virginia; Distinguished Adjunct Professor, International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies, National Cheng Chi University, Taipei, Taiwan; Shirley Lin, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor of Political Economy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong; Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Virginia; Moderator: Yun Sun, Co-Director, East Asia Program; Director of the China Program, Stimson Center.

click to order

THE VIRTUE OF NATIONALISM. 10/15, 2:00-3:00pm. Sponsor: Heritage. Speakers: Yoram Hazony, Author, President, Herzl Institute in Jerusalem, Director, Jewish Philosophical Theology project, John Templeton Foundation; Dr. Theodore R. Bromund, Senior Research Fellow in Anglo-American Relations. 

click to order

FOUNDATION OF THE CIA: HARRY TRUMAN, THE MISSOURI GANG, AND THE ORIGINS OF THE COLD WAR. 10/15, 4:30-6:00pm. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics (IWP). Speaker: Author Richard E. Schroeder, Former Intelligence Officer, US Army, Former Deputy Director, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence.

ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES (PART 3). 10/15, 6:00-7:30pm. Sponsors: Environmental Law Institute; ABA Section of Civil Rights and Social Justice; Program on Environmental and Energy Law, AU Washington College of Law. Speakers: Charles Lee, Senior Policy Advisor for Environmental Justice, USEPA; Vernice Miller-Travis, Senior Consultant, Skeo Solutions, and Founder, WE ACT for Environmental Justice; Dr. Ezra Rosser, Professor of Law, Washington College of Law, AU; Dr. William J. Snape III, Professor of Law, Washington College of Law, American University; Moderator: Kendra Brown, Senior Director for Diversity, Inclusion and Affinity, Washington College of Law, AU.

Monday in Washington, October 8, 2018

Also known as Columbus Day

HOLIDAY IN WASHINGTON
Federal Offices Closed

NEW DAWN FOR PROTECTIONISM? FROM TRADE WARS TO MEGA-REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS. 10/8, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Edward Alden, Senior Fellow, CFR; Soumaya Keynes, US Economics Editor, Economist; Toshihiro Nakayama, Professor, Keio University, Japan Fellow, Asia Program, Wilson Center; Hylke Vandenbussche, Professor, Economics and Business, Head, Research Center of International Economics, University of Leuven; Mark Wu, Professor, Harvard Law School. Moderator: Mireya Solís, Director, Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Brookings.

Monday in Washington, October 1, 2018

THE BELT AND ROAD AT FIVE. 10/1, 10:00am-2:15pm. Sponsor: CSIS, General Electric, USA Maritime. Speakers: Kurt M. Campbell, Chairman and CEO, The Asia Group, LLC; Kathleen H. Hicks, Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, Director, International Security, Program, CSIS; Vice Adm. Andy Brown, President and CEO, National Defense Transportation Association; Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program, CSIS; Nilanthi Samaranayake, Analyst, China and Indo-Pacific Security, CNA; Amy Searight, Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS; Moderator: Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President, William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS; Rilka Dragneva-Lewers, Professor of International Legal Studies, University of Birmingham; Nargis Kassenova, Senior Fellow, Program on Central Asia, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University; Nadège Rolland, Senior Fellow for Political and Security Affairs, NBR; Stephanie Segal, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS; Moderator: Steve LeVine, Future Editor, Axios, Adjunct Professor, GTU, Author, The Powerhouse; Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Reconnecting Asia Director, CSIS.

CLICK TO ORDER

HAS THE WEST LOST IT? 10/1, 3:00-4:30pm. Sponsor: Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Speakers: Author Kishore Mahbubani, Former Singapore Permanent Representative to UN, Former President, UN Security Council, Professor, National University of Singapore; Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Adviser, CSIS, Former Director for Asian Affairs, NSC; Dr. John J. DeGioia, President, Georgetown University. 

BROADCASTING THE VOICE OF AMERICA IN THE ERA OF DISINFORMATION. 10/1, Noon. Sponsors: Public Diplomacy Council; USC Center on Communication Leadership and Policy. Speaker: Dr. Haroon K. Ullah, Chief Strategy Officer, U.S. Agency for Global Media. 

Rape of Manila - A history

click to order

RAMPAGE: MACARTHUR, YAMASHITA, 

AND THE BATTLE OF MANILA (1945)

The definitive history of one of the most brutal campaigns of the war in the Pacific.

UPDATE: AUDIO OF PRESENTATION AVAILABLE HERE.

Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Noon-2:00 PM

Sponsors
Asia Policy Point and Sigur Center for Asian Studies

Speaker
Author, James M. Scott

author of Target Tokyo, a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize; The War Below, and The Attack on the Liberty

Commentator
Richard Frank, Pacific War History Inc., author Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire (1999)

Location
Sigur Center
The Elliott School for International Affairs
George Washington University
1957 E St., NW, Suite 503
Washington, DC 

RSVP

Before World War II, Manila was a slice of America in Asia, populated with elegant neoclassical buildings, spacious parks, and home to thousands of U.S. servicemen and business executives who enjoyed the relaxed pace of the tropics. The outbreak of the war, however, brought an end to the good life. General Douglas MacArthur, hoping to protect the Pearl of the Orient, declared the Philippine capital an open city and evacuated his forces. The Japanese seized Manila on January 2, 1942, rounding up and interning thousands of Americans.

MacArthur, who escaped soon after to Australia, famously vowed to return. For nearly three years, he clawed his way north, obsessed with redeeming his promise and turning his earlier defeat into victory. By early 1945, he prepared to liberate Manila, a city whose residents by then faced widespread starvation. Convinced the Japanese would abandon the city as he did, MacArthur planned a victory parade down Dewey Boulevard. But the enemy had other plans. Determined to fight to the death, Japanese marines barricaded intersections, converted buildings into fortresses, and booby-trapped stores, graveyards, and even dead bodies.

The twenty-nine-day battle to liberate Manila resulted in the catastrophic destruction of the city and a rampage by Japanese forces that brutalized the civilian population. Landmarks were demolished, houses were torched, suspected resistance fighters were tortured and killed, countless women were raped, and their husbands and children were murdered. American troops had no choice but to battle the enemy, floor by floor and even room by room, through schools, hospitals, and even sports stadiums. In the end, an estimated 100,000 civilians lost their lives in a massacre as heinous as the Rape of Nanking.

Based on extensive research in the United States and the Philippines, including war-crimes testimony, after-action reports, and survivor interviews, Rampage recounts one of the most heartbreaking chapters of Pacific war history.

Monday in Washington, September 24, 2018

SCIENTIFIC, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMAZON. 9/24, 9:00am-5:00pm. Sponsors: Environmental Change and Security Program, Wilson Center; Brazil Institute, Wilson Center; São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPSEP); Alcoa Foundation. Speakers: Paulo Sotero, Director, Brazil Institute; Paulo Artaxo, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); Rita Mesquita, Senior Researcher, National Institute of Amazon Research (INPA); Thomas Lovejoy, UN Foundation and George Mason University; Douglas Morton, Earth Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Celso von Randow, Researcher, National Institute for Space Research (INPE); Gustavo Fonseca, Director of Programs, Global Environment Facility; José Marengo, Senior Researcher, National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEM); Rita Mesquita, Senior Researcher, National Institute of Amazon Research (INPA); Fábio Abdala, Alcoa Foundation.

ADDRESSING CHALLENGES IN THE MARITIME COMMONS. 9/24, 9:00-10:30am. Sponsor: National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). Speakers include: Admiral Eduardo Bacellar Leal Ferreira, Commander of the Navy, Brazilian Navy; Vice Admiral Michael Noonan, Chief of Navy, Royal Australian Navy; Admiral Tomohisa Takei, 32nd Chief on Staff, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Distinguished International Fellow, U.S. Naval War College. Moderator: Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert (ret.), 30th Chief of Naval Operations, U.S. Navy, Shali Chair in National Security Studies, NBR.

RELIGIOUS FREEDOM AND PEACE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA. 9/24, Noon-1:00pm. Sponsors: Hudson and Heritage. Speakers: Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali, Bishop of Rochester (1994-2009) and President of Oxford Centre for Training, Research, Advocacy & Dialogue; Husain Haqqani, Senior Fellow and Director for South and Central Asia, Hudson Institute; Emilie Kao, Director of the Richard and Helen DeVos Center.
INDO-PACIFIC AND REGIONAL TRENDS: TOWARDS CONNECTIVITY OR CONFLICT? 9/24, 12:30-1:45pm. Sponsor: Sigur Center, GW. Speakers: Dr. Mike Mochizuki, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, GW; Dr. Robert Sutter, Professor of Practice of International Affairs, GW; Dr. Jagannath Panda, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the East Asia Centre at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi; Moderator: Dr. Deepa M. Ollapally, Director of the Rising Powers Initiative, GW.

AGENDA OF THE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOARD. 9/24, 12:45-1:45pm. Sponsor: Peterson Institute (PIIE). Speaker: Klaas Knot, President, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), Governing Council, European Central Bank. Webcast Only

click to order book

BORROWED TIME: TWO CENTURIES OF BOOMS, BUSTS, AND BAILOUTS AT CITI. 9/24, 4:00pm. Sponsor: Cato. Speakers: Author, James Freeman, Assistant Editor, Editorial Page, Wall Street Journal; Author, Vern McKinley, Visiting Scholar, The George Washington University Law School; Christy Ford Chapin, Associate Professor, University of Maryland; Moderator: George Selgin, Director, Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives.

NORTH KOREAN MILITARY PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA. 9/24, 4:30-5:30pm, Washington, DC. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics. Speaker: Author, Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr., President, International Council on Korean Studies.

THE GENDER GAP IN 2018: SUPPORTING WOMEN IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY. 9/24, 6:00-7:30pm. Sponsors: Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Women In Defense (WID), Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG), Women's Foreign Policy Network (WFPN), and Women In International Security (WIIS) Global, Women in International Security (WIIS-DC). Speakers: Jenna Ben-Yehuda, Women’s Foreign Policy Network; Tamara Cofman Wittes, Leadership Council on Women in National Security; Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Women In International Security; Kim Kahnhauser Freeman, Women’s Foreign Policy Group; Women in Defense Representative (TBD); Moderator: Laura Holgate (Nuclear Threat Initiative). 

Role of South Korea in US-Japan Strategic Islands Defense

It is rare to get an honest answer from a Japanese as Korea is repeatedly and regularly ignored in their grand foreign policy or security visions.

Thus, it was startling and refreshing to hear Hudson Institute's Senior Fellow Jun Isomura give that rare answer. He brushed off cooperation with the Koreans because they are just too emotionally unstable.

He spoke at a September 21, 2018 program introducing Hudson's report U.S.-Japan Strategic and Operational Cooperation on Remote Island Defense, that gave lay recommendations for how the United States and Japan can strengthen their operational and strategic cooperation in defense of the Ryukyus. The writers believed that the U.S. would more likely come to the defense of the Ryukyus (Okinawa Prefecture, Pop 1.5 million), sparsely populated islets in the East China Sea, than of Taiwan, which is at the end of this island chain.

Below is the clip of Mr. Isomura explaining why Japanese leaders avoid including their Korean counterparts in regional plans.

Constitutional revision in Japan by 2020?

Emperor Hirohito signing
1947 Constitution

Don’t count on it

EastAsiaForum, 13 September 2018

by Michael Cucek, Adjunct Professor of Political Science and History at Temple University Japan and an Adjunct Professor of Social Science at Waseda University.

Revision or amendment of the 1947 US-drafted Constitution of Japan has been the aim of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s existence since the day it was founded. Yet in 60 years of nearly unbroken rule, the party has failed to table a single draft proposal for a constitutional amendment.

Scepticism is justified regarding the vow Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made to Nippon Kaigi — a group that advocates constitutional revision — that before the opening ceremony of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, he would lead the National Diet and the people to vote for the first amendment of the post-war constitution.

Abe has advantages in this endeavour that his previous Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidents did not. His LDP–Komeito ruling coalition holds over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives and has held on to this supermajority the coalition through two successive elections. Together with allied micro-parties, independents and revision-sympathetic conservatives of the Ishin no Kai party, the ruling coalition also secured a two-thirds supermajority in the House of Councillors (the upper house) in 2016.

These two supermajorities guarantee the first two requirements for the passage of a constitutional amendment: a more than two-thirds vote of approval in both houses of the Diet.

None of Abe’s projected opponents in the scheduled September 2018 LDP presidential election are noted opponents of revision. Indeed, former defence minister and LDP secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba, Abe’s most viable opponent in an intra-party power struggle, desires much more radical revisions than Abe and his allies have been considering.

Crucially for a party driven by factionalism, the LDP’s internal constitutional revision apparatus is in the grasp of Abe loyalists. An overlooked achievement was Abe’s wresting the chairmanship of the LDP Headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution away from Hajime Funada. Funada had used control of the revision committee as means of hobbling the initiatives of his fellow party members. Buoyed by the great victory in the October 2017 election, Abe shoved Funada aside, replacing him with a more senior and supportive leader: Hiroyuki Hosoda, the head of Abe’s own faction within the LDP.

But things are not so sanguine outside the Party. A unique feature of Abe’s years in power has been a lack of voter enthusiasm for his policies. While public opinion poll numbers in support of the Abe cabinet have fluctuated in between 40 and 60 per cent — remarkably high for any Japanese administration, particularly one in its sixth year — the numbers supporting his administration’s policies have almost never risen above 50 per cent. These approval ratings usually hover in the mid-30s, with most voters either doubtful about or actively opposed to constitutional change. Expending time and effort justifying changes has proved counterproductive for Abe: support for policy proposals has consistently declined the more that Abe and his lieutenants have tried to explain them.

The combination of these two phenomena — initial low support for Abe policies and declining support for those policies over time — seems deadly for constitutional revision. Article 96 of the constitution requires a national referendum to be held on any proposed amendment or revision, and a strict majority of votes must be in favour of the proposal for it to pass. Any significant amendment will start out with less than 50 per cent support, if the history of the Abe cabinet is any guide, meaning that it will have an essentially zero chance of surviving the referendum process. And polling has shown that at least 60 per cent of voters do not want the constitution altered under Abe.

Of the four main constitutional revision proposals that Abe and his allies have considered, one (the emergency powers revision) is seen as too controversial and has been shelved. Two others (free education through high school and the assignment of at least two senators to each House of Councillors electoral district) are matters of legislation, not constitutional revision. Indeed, the senator assignment issue was resolved by legislation in the recently concluded Diet regular session.

This leaves the proposal to add a sentence to Article 9 — the Peace Article — constitutionalising the Japan Self-Defense Forces. This is the amendment proposal that many voters fear.

First, this proposal is completely unnecessary. The Self-Defense Forces are broadly admired, and their constitutionality is accepted by nearly every part of Japan’s political spectrum. Second, putting the amendment to the voters could backfire spectacularly. A ‘No’ vote in the first ever constitutional revision referendum would force Abe’s immediate resignation. It would also bury, possibly for perpetuity, further attempts at revision.

Finally, a rejection would be the equivalent of finding that the Self-Defense Forces are unconstitutional. Abe has testified that his government would ignore a referendum rejection and continue to consider the Self-Defense Forces constitutional, whatever the voters say. But given that a rejection would force his resignation, he and his team would not be in charge to make that decision.

Nevertheless, Abe promised at a conference in August that he would add the extra sentence to Article 9. What is more, he said he wanted the amendment proposal through the Diet by the end of 2018.

Abe’s speech triggered a lot of speculation about his intentions. The conventional wisdom is that Abe is averse to career-ending challenges. His ignominious premature exit from his first term as prime minister in 2007 made him a more cautious and patient radical. He does not succumb to time pressures and never takes any stance on which his side does not have an overwhelming chance of prevailing.

The question revolves therefore around what Abe means when he says he ‘wants’ to have a constitutional amendment before the year is out. We all ‘want’ many things, most of which we cannot have. Abe’s most fervent supporters want a constitutional amendment, now. Abe seems to have merely been playing to the crowd.

Besides, Abe knows of a precedent on pushing against public opinion — one he does not want to follow. In 1960, Abe’s grandfather Nobusuke Kishi staked his premiership on a deeply unpopular renewal of the Japan–US Security Treaty. Kishi lost power because of his commitment to deliver the renewal. Abe is not likely to follow in his grandfather’s self-sacrificial path — not for a promise that the LDP has failed to honour for 63 years.

Monday in Washington, September 17, 2018

WILL DEMOCRACY WIN? THE RECURRING BATTLE BETWEEN LIBERALISM AND ITS ADVERSARIES. 9/17, 9:30-10:45am. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings, Former Member, State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World; Amb. Norman Eisen, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings, Former U.S. Ambassador to the Czech Republic, The Last Palace: Europe’s Turbulent Century in Five Lives and One Legendary House. Moderators: William A. Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Alina Polyakova, Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings. Moderator: John R. Allen, President, Brookings.

click to order

CONVERSATION WITH SIX FORMER USTRS. 9/17, 10:00am-Noon. Speaker: William Brock, U.S. Trade Representative (1981-1985); Carla Hills, U.S. Trade Representative (1989-1993); Michael Kantor, U.S. Trade Representative (1993-1996); Charlene Barshefsky, U.S. Trade Representative (1996-2001), Susan Schwab, U.S. Trade Representative (2006-2009); Ronald Kirk, U.S. Trade Representative (2009-2013); William Alan Reinsch, Senior Adviser, Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS.

CHINA'S ROLE IN MYANMAR'S INTERNAL CONFLICTS. 9/17, 11:00am-12:30pm. Sponsor: U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP). Speakers: Amb. Derek Mitchell, Former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, President, National Democratic Institute; Daniel Twining, President, International Republican Institute; David Steinberg, Professor Emeritus, Asian Studies, GTU, Nancy Lindborg, President, USIP. Moderator: Jennifer Staats, Director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace.

click to order

WHY ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS QUIT TERRORISM: INSIGHTS FROM INDONESIA'S DE-RADICALIZATION PROGRAMS. 9/17,12:30-1:45pm. Sponsor: US-Indonesia Society (USINDO). Speakers: author, Julie Chernov Hwang; Moderator: William M. Wise, Practitioner-in-Residence, Southeast Asia Studies, SAIS. cation: USINDO, 1625 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Suite 550. Contact:

DISCUSSION ON NATIONAL SECURITY WITH DIA DIRECTOR ROBERT AHSLEY. 9/17, 1:30-3:00pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr., Director, Defense Intelligence Agency; Moderators: Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair, Director, Transnational Threats Project, Senior Adviser, International Security Program; Juan C. Zarate, Chairman, Financial Integrity Network, Senior Adviser, Transnational Threats Project and Human Rights Initiative.

JAPAN IN ASIA: ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY IN THE NEW GEOPOLITICS. 9/17, 2:00-3:30pm. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Pek Koon Heng-Blackburn, Assistant Professor, School of International Service, Director, ASEAN Studies Center, American University; Fukunari Kimura, Chief Economist, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Professor, Economics, Keio University; Meredith Sumpter, Head, Research Strategy & Operations, Eurasia Group; Shujiro Urata, Dean, Professor, Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies, Waseda University. Moderator: Mireya Solis, Philip Knight Chair in Japan Studies, Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Brookings.

SINO-US ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. 9/17, 9:00am-4:30pm. Sponsors: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE); China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Speakers will include: The Hon. Jacob J. Lew, Former Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, Partner, Lindsay Goldberg; C. Fred Bergsten, Senior Fellow, Director Emeritus, PIIE; Cui Tiankai, Ambassador to the United States from the People’s Republic of China; Caroline Freund, Director, Trade for Regional Integration and Investment Climate, World Bank; Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Nonresident Senior Fellow, PIIE; Jiang Xiaojuan, Vice Chairperson, Committee of Social Construction of the National People’s Congress; Adam S. Posen, President, PIIE; Xie Fuzhan, President, CASS; Yu Yongding, Former Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS. Streaming only.

click to order

LEGACY OF ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: REMARKS BY MADELINE K. ALBRIGHT. 9/17, 4:30-6:00pm. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Institute, (FPI), SAIS, Johns Hopkins. Speakers: Vali Nasr, Dean, SAIS, Johns Hopkins; Madeline K. Albright, former Secretary of State; Moderator: Carla P. Freeman, Director, FPI, SAIS, Johns Hopkins.

FOOD INSECURITY AS A SECURITY CHALLENGE. 9/17, 6:00-7:00pm. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Amb. Ertharin Cousin, Former Executive Director, World Food Programme; Moderator: Nina Easton, Senior Associate, CSIS Chair, Fortune Most Powerful Women International, Co-Chair, Fortune Global Forum.

MY FAVORITE MOVIE WITH FRANCIS FUKUYAMA: THE LIVES OF OTHERS. 9/17, 6:30-8:00pm. Sponsors: Future Tense; Slate; New America; Arizona State University. Speaker: Francis Fukuyama, Senior Fellow, Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, author End of History and the Last Man.