Prime Minister Ishiba Holds On

The Struggle to Bring Ishiba Down

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun.

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun.
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 28, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Despite reaching a deal on tariffs with the United States, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces difficulty in maintaining his government. Anti-Ishiba lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are expanding their efforts to remove Ishiba from the leadership. Some newspapers reported that Ishiba has already decided to step down. However, since then, Ishiba has repeated that he would continue to fulfill his responsibilities as prime minister. It is not unusual that the LDP replaces its top leader to represent itself as a “new-born LDP” right after serious defeat in an election.
 
Ishiba announced to the press that he would stay on as prime minister after the polls closed on July 20 for the upper house elections. On July 23 in Japan, two newspapers, the Mainichi Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun, however, reported on the front page of their evening editions with huge headlines that Ishiba would step down soon.
 
Yomiuri reported that Ishiba had told one of his aides of his coming resignation on the night of July 22, just before the announcement of an agreement on tariffs between Japan and the United States. “Tariff negotiations are about the national interest. I bet on Akazawa (the top negotiator for Japan). I will explain my responsibility for the defeat in Upper House election soon after the tariff negotiations are settled, but I cannot say I’m resigning so far” Ishiba said, according to Yomiuri. The conversation with the aide seems to be the source of the news of Ishiba’s resignation.
 
The news of a Japan-U.S. tariff deal came in the morning of July 23 Tokyo time. In return for Japan’s pledges to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and to purchase $8 billion of U.S. products, including a 75 percent increase in purchases of U.S. rice, the U.S. reduced the “reciprocal tariff” on Japanese goods from 25 to 15 percent. The Tokyo Stock Market rallied on July 23, welcoming the deal.
 
On the same day, July 23, Ishiba met with three former prime ministers and LDP heavyweights: Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga, and Fumio Kishida. Observers believe that Ishiba tried to explain his intention to stay on as the prime minister, but those ex-premiers did not support him.
 
According to news reports, Aso concluded that, under Ishiba’s leadership, the LDP cannot win an election, considering the defeats in the Lower House election last October and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June 2025. Kishida urged Ishiba to make clear whether he was staying or going. Suga insisted that Ishiba make sure that he does not divide the party. After the meeting, Ishiba said that there was no discussion of his possible resignation.
 
Internal opposition to Ishiba’s prime ministership has spread in the LDP. Some lawmakers formerly affiliated with the Motegi faction, one of the anti-Ishiba powers in the party, started collecting signatures of LDP lawmakers to request a Joint Plenary Meeting of Party Members of Both Houses of the Diet (JPM), an official meeting which can elect new president.
 
The LDP held an unofficial meeting of Diet members on July 28, rather than call a JPM. Ishiba asked for support to continue his presidency to implement the tariff deal with the U.S. While his appeal seemed to fall on deaf ears, many participants wanted the party to identify who was responsible for the disastrous results of the Upper House election. LDP Secretary General, Hiroshi Moriyama, stated that he would do so after the LDP’s review of the election finishes in August. There still is the possibility to hold a JPM, as there have been many requests to do so.
 
Anti-Ishiba groups in the LDP have redoubled their efforts to remove Ishiba. Four leaders of the former (now-disbanded) Abe faction -- Koichi Hagiuda, Yasutoshi Nishimura, Hirokazu Matsuno, and Hiroshige Seko – met at a faction reunion on July 23. One of the finalists in the election for president of the LDP last September, Sanae Takaichi, met with Aso and Nishimura to ask for their support.
 
Some local branches of the party, including the Tochigi Branch led by Toshimitsu Motegi and the Nara Branch, which is the home of Takaichi, submitted requests for the renewal of LDP leadership. After receiving complaints from some local organizations, the LDP Youth Division made the same request.
 
Reshuffling LDP leadership would not, however, address the policy issues behind the party’s recent losses. For example, the kickback scandal was one of the main reasons for those losses. “Who ruined the LDP?” Ishiba asked his colleagues, insisting on his authority to lead the country. Ishiba seems to think that he has at least three responsibilities in the coming weeks: 1) to conclude all the details in the tariff negotiations with the U.S. and related measures for Japanese business sectors; 2) to deliver his own message on August 15 at the 80^th anniversary of the end of World War II; and 3) to lead the Tokyo International Conference on African Development ((TICAD 9) in late August.
 ,jap
There is a speculation that Ishiba will step down after completing this agenda. The usual process of replacing an unpopular LDP prime minister is a growing demand for his resignation, a request for a presidential election, and the emergence of new leaders to replace the prime minister. If Ishiba steps down this fall, he will be added to the list of ordinary leaders who held a short term.
 
Once a new LDP president is elected, leaving the prime minister to declare his cabinet’s resignation en masse and both Houses elect new prime minister. If the Houses elect different people, the winner in the Lower House becomes the prime minister. Now, it is uncertain that a LDP candidate will win, given that there is no majority of the leading coalition in both Houses.
 
However, the opposition to Ishiba has some unusual elements. One is that the driving forces for his replacement are the very ones responsible for losing the election. Most lawmakers in the LDP, and not just the members of the former Abe faction, were reluctant to refuse donations from companies to guarantee the transparency of political fundraising. Another element is the absence of alternative contenders to replace Ishiba. The next leader must have the ability to manage negotiations with opposition parties in the Diet. Ishiba has proven his ability to do so; it is not apparent who else in the LDP could take this on.
 
On July 25, a large demonstration was held near the prime minister’s official residence to support the continuation of the Ishiba government. Participants shouted “Hang in there, Ishiba!” and “Don't resign!” Although there have been frequent protests against incumbent prime ministers, especially during Shinzo Abe’s administration, it is highly unusual that a crowd would gather to chant in favor of a prime minister retaining his position. Encouraged by these supporters, Ishiba must consider how to define his continuing “responsibility” as prime minister.