A Fundamental Gap Opens in Tariff Negotiations
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun. The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
May 5, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
As tariff talks between the United States and Japan are getting into details, a fundamental difference over preconditions has emerged that put the talks in danger. While the U.S. says that cars, steel, and aluminum tariffs are nonnegotiable, Japan insists on negotiating tariffs on every product from Japan. This disagreement places unusual pressure on both governments due to internal political calendars.
Following the first meeting on April 16, Japan’s top negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, held a second meeting with his counterparts, U.S. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in Washington, DC on May 1.
After the meeting, Akazawa announced that both sides had discussed expanding trade between the two countries, reducing non-tariff barriers, and cooperating on economic security. Japan asked the U.S. to reconsider its tariff policy on all products.
According to some news reports, Japan explained in the meeting how it would increase imports of corn and soybeans from the U.S. and ease regulations that generally prevent the importation of foreign-made cars. Bessent said that he hoped to reach a consensus with Japan across a range of key bilateral issues soon.
However, even before Akazawa returned to Japan, Japanese news media reported that the U.S. would exclude cars, steel, and aluminum from the negotiations. The Trump administration had already activated 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum in March and imposed a 25 percent duty on automobiles in early April.
The “reciprocal” tariffs that Trump announced in April are different from the 25 percent tariffs. The administration set a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports into the U.S. and separate tariffs for each country. The baseline tariff took effect on April 5, but Trump set 90-day moratorium on the additional tariffs; the moratorium will expire on July 9. The tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum are in a third category.
The rate of reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports, the sum of the 10 percent baseline tariff and an additional 14 percent tariff, is 24 percent. The U.S. team told Akazawa that they would negotiate only the additional 14 percent tariff. In addition, the U.S. would not negotiate the 10 percent baseline with any country.
As soon as he returned to Japan, Akazawa reported to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba about the results of the meeting. Akazawa announced Japan’s position that tariffs on all goods should be negotiated. “We cannot reach an agreement without those items (cars, steel, and aluminum),” said Akazawa to the reporters. He added that he did not have parameters for an agreement with the U.S.
Notwithstanding the differences between the two governments, officials on both sides have continued to negotiate after Akazawa’s second visit. A third meeting at the ministerial level is anticipated in mid-May. Both sides understand the importance of reaching a deal before the 90-day moratorium expires.
The schedule is closely aligned with the domestic politics of each side. Ishiba does not want the negotiations to have a negative impact on elections to the Upper House in July. The leaders in Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are worried about protests by farmers against any compromise on imports of agricultural products from the U.S. LDP leaders are aware of the importance of protecting the national interest in the tariff negotiations.
Opposition leaders are putting pressure on Ishiba not to make easy concessions. “It is important to keep a motivation for an early agreement, but Japan should not open its hand too early to be taken advantage of by the U.S.,” said the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda.
Concerns are growing about a slowdown in the Japanese economy. In a monetary policy meeting on the same day as the Akazawa-Bessent meeting, the Bank of Japan reduced its projection of Japan’s economic growth in FY2025 by more than 50 percent from the original 1.1 percent in January to 0.5 percent. Japan has no time to waste on tariff negotiations.
Trump has indicated that a deal with Japan is a priority that will set a level for negotiations with other countries. Along with progress in negotiations with Japan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that tariff talks with China would start soon. As approval ratings for President Trump are declining, Trump may believe that a negotiated deal with Japan will be a signal achievement in the MAGA agenda.
There is an expectation in Japan that the two sides may be able to make more progress when Trump and Ishiba are together at the G7 Summit in Canada on May 15 to 17. Ishiba spoke by telephone with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who had just been elected prime minister, to discuss the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the world economy and the multilateral trade framework. Although Ishiba’s G7 schedule does not yet include a side meeting with Trump, an agreement, even if it is only partial, between the leaders in June is the best hope for both Japan and the U.S.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
Sunday, May 4, 2025
Monday Asia Policy Events, May 5, 2025
KOREAN WAVE AND GLOBAL KOREA. 5/5, 1:00-2:30pm, VIRTUAL. Speaker: Areum Jeong, Assistant Professor of Korean Studies, Arizona State University; Moderator: Jungwon Kim, King Sejong Associate Professor of Korean Studies, EALAC, Columbia University.
STRENGTHENING ARTICLE IV: NUCLEAR FACILITY RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF CRISIS. 5/5, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Nuclear Threat Initiative. Speakers: Dr. Rabia Akhtar, Research Fellow, Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School; Darya Dolzikova, Senior Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute; Ambassador Matteo Fachinotti, Resident Representative to the IAEA, Permanent Representative to the CTBTO PrepCom, Permanent Mission of Switzerland to the OSCE, the United Nations, and other International Organizations in Vienna; Klemen Polak, Minister Plenipotentiary, Security Policy Department, Slovenian Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs; Nickolas Roth; Senior Director, Nuclear Materials Security.
INSPIRING A SPACE FORCE WARRIOR ETHOS. 5/5, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Air & Space Forces Association. Speaker: John F. Bentivegna, Chief Master Sergeant of the Space Force.
RISKS AND REWARDS: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. 5/5, 5:30-6:30pm (CDT) 6:30-7:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Speakers: Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research, J.P. Morgan; Phil Levy Lead Trade Economist, World Bank; Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, KPMG US.
CHARTING AUSTRALIA'S PATH: 2025 ELECTION RESULTS AND IMPLICATIONS. 5/5, 6:00-7:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Charles Edel, Senior Adviser and Australia Chair; Laura Tingle, Political Editor, ABC News; Chris Uhlmann, Political Contributor, Sky News, Columnist, The Australian; Stephen Dziedzic, Foreign Affairs (Asia Pacific) Reporter, ABC News.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Japan's Tariff Negotiator
JAPAN'S TARIFF NEGOTIATOR
Ryosei AKAZAWA [赤澤 亮正]
We are not considering sacrificing Japan's agriculture,
forestry and fisheries industries for the sake of automobiles.
Ryosei AKAZAWA (赤澤 亮正), 64
MINISTER IN CHARGE OF ECONOMIC REVITALIZATION
7 terms in House of Representatives (Tottori 2). LDP
Also under current government his portfolios are:
Minister in charge of New Capitalism
Minister in charge of Wage Increase
Minister in charge of Startups
Minister in charge of Social Security Reform
Minister in charge of Infectious Disease Crisis Management
Minister in charge of the Preparation of Establishing the Disaster Management Agency
Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy
He is in charge of establishing a Disaster Prevention Agency, which is a pet project of Prime Minister Ishiba.
Past Positions: State Minister in charge of Financial Services Agency (2nd Kishida Cabinet (2nd Reshuffled))
Parliamentary Secretary for Land, Infrastructure and Transport (2nd Abe Cabinet)
University of Tokyo (1984)
Upon graduation joined the Ministry of Transportation (today’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism)
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, MBA (1991)
Returned to Ministry after Cornell. Among his early assignments was to oversee the Sasakawa organization-funded Nippon Foundation. (The Sasakawa organization manages motorboat racing (gambling) in Japan, is closely involved in the shipbuilding and harbor management industries in Japan, and funds many philanthropic groups. Its founder, Ryōichi Sasakawa [笹川 良], a Class-A war criminal, was involved in all manner of illicit activities during and after the war.)
Retired from government in 2005.
One of “Koizumi’s Children/Assassins” who won election to the Lower House for the first time in the 2005 “postal reform election”
One of the 20 nominators for Ishiba in 2024 LDP presidential election
Although he was a lawmaker supported by Junichiro Koizumi, he became an ally of Ishiba and was elected from the same prefecture, Tottori
Often referred to as an “Ishiba Mania.” His continued support of Ishiba alienated him from mainstream politicians like Abe, Suga, and Kishida
Served as secretary general of Ishiba's campaign in the 2024 LDP presidential election
While at the Ministry of Transportation, Akazawa managed the government’s disaster responses of the crash of Japan Air Lines Flight 123 (1985) and of the Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake (1995). This work made him an expert on and advocate for disaster management policies. He is now in charge of establishes a Disaster Prevention Agency.
It is reported that he learned American-style negotiation skills while at Cornell University’s business school. At the Ministry of Transport in 1994, he was Assistant Director, International Aviation Division, Supervision Department, Civil Aviation Bureau in charge of Japan-U.S. aviation negotiations.
In the 2005 election, then Prime Minister Koizumi dropped some lawmakers against his postal reform from the LDP slate and fielded “snipers” to their districts as official LDP candidates. Akazawa was one of those new lawmakers who defeated the anti-Koizumi candidates. As a lawmaker from a rural community, Akazawa shared decentralization policies with Ishiba for years and became a close ally in Ishiba faction, named Suigetsu-kai.
Akazawa is considered the cabinet minister most trusted by Prime Minister Ishiba. Although Akazawa has limited experience with trade negotiations, it is reasonable to assume for Ishiba to pick the Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization, because Toshimitsu Motegi, dubbed as “tough negotiator” by Trump, held the same position in the negotiations over Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement in 2019. Akazawa’s success in tariff negotiations depends on how well the Ministries for Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) support him.
Family
Akazawa's birth name was Mori. His father was a university professor who encouraged him to pursue public service. When he started the University of Tokyo, he was adopted by his maternal grandparents. His maternal grandfather, Masamichi Akazawa [赤沢正道], was a politician and chairman of the construction company Akazawa Gumi [赤沢組] likely founded in 1915 by his great grandfather, Kohei Akazawa, a samurai from the Tokushima Domain who became an engineer and construction worker.
Akazawa’s wife: Chiaki Akazawa, born in Hokkaido. They met while he was working for Hokkaido Prefectural Government between 1996 and 1998, dispatched from the Ministry of Transport. Akazawa son; Ryota Akazawa, 24 years old. He was known as the leader of the cheering squad in Yonago Higashi High School in Tottori. Both Chiaki and Ryota were involved in the 2024 election campaign
On his personal website, he prominently features his grandfather Masamichi Akazawa, former Minister of Home Affairs (today’s Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications) in the third Ikeda cabinet (1964) and the first reshuffled cabinet of the second Sato cabinet (1967). Akazawa says he wants to emulate his grandfather's principled way of life.
Conservative Nationalist Parliamentary League: Yasukuni, Association for Protecting National Interests in TPP Negotiations. Unification Church ties.
Social Media
Official Page: https://www.ryosei-akazawa.
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/ryosei_akazawa
Book
Preparation Acts for Terrorism: How to Confront the Imminent Threat – 38 Key Debates in the National Diet [テロ等準備罪：目の前にある危機にいかに立ち向かうか 国会38の論点] by Ryosei Akazawa, Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Liberal Democratic Party, Member of House of Representative, Good Books, Tokyo. November 15, 2017, 280 pages.
Book description:
The passage of the 2017 legislation on the Punishment of the Preparation of Acts of Terrorism and Other Organized Crimes faced backlash from opposition parties and the media, primarily from the perspectives of privacy and human rights protection. According to the author, “the crux of this legislation is to strike an optimal balance between countering the threats of terrorism and organized crime and protecting privacy and human rights.” This book outlines Japan’s vulnerability to terrorism and organized crime prior to the legislation, and argues that, despite media criticism, the law remains restrained in key areas of enforcement compared to international standards.
The facts presented in this report were collected entirely from open sources.
We endeavor to keep the information we provide you up to date and correct.
However, as with any research, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about its completeness, accuracy, reliability, or suitability.
Your comments, suggestions, and corrections are welcome.
Bending toward Trump
Ishiba Hopes to Make a Model for Dealing with Trump
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
April 28, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
The Japanese government under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is accelerating its efforts to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies. The negotiating team for a new trade deal with the U.S. is considering increasing imports of some agricultural products from the U.S. as a bargaining chip. The ultimate objective is to protect Japan’s citizens from the harm of Trump’s unpredictability. Ishiba, focused on this summer’s Upper House elections, hopes to demonstrate that he is a good model in the world for negotiating with the Trump administration.
In the team’s first meeting at the White House in mid-April, Japan’s top negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expressed Japan’s “extreme regret” about Trump’s tariffs. Both sides agreed to try to conclude talks as soon as possible.
Trump, who unexpectedly jumped into the bilateral meeting, left the Japanese confused. It was reported that he said that no American cars are being driven in Japan owing to excessive safety standards there. “Most victims in traffic accidents in Japan are pedestrians. Drivers [are the primary victims] in the U.S. That is why regulations on safety are different between Japan and the U.S. We need to understand that background,” said Ishiba in a Diet discussion.
After the meeting, Trump repeated an allegation from his first term that Japan’s safety standards include a “bowling ball test.” That is, the Japanese test the durability of foreign cars by dropping bowling balls on them – a test any automobile would be likely to fail. However, there is no such test. The Japanese people now have an image of its supposed trade partner making unrealistic arguments based on fake information.
As soon as he returned to Japan, Akazawa reported to Ishiba his impression of the Trump administration’s trade issues. Although Akazawa was careful not to show Japan’s hands, his team believes that Trump’s top priority in trading with Japan is the elimination of non-tariff barriers. “It can be making a model in the world for us to promote negotiation maintaining a good relationship.,” said Ishiba in a Diet discussion.
The Ishiba administration has started to consider easing regulations on imported cars from the U.S. Japan currently requires U.S. cars to obtain a safety certification in Japan, even if they have passed U.S. safety tests. The Japanese government is trying to determine whether it is possible to have common test specifications in Japan and the U.S. The Japan team is also looking for examples of Japanese carmakers increasing production in the U.S.
In the meeting with Akazawa’s team, the U.S. team showed a particular interest in agricultural exports to Japan, quoting a report on trade barriers by the U.S. Trade Representative. The Ishiba administration is now looking for ways to allow more U.S. farm products into the country. The Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Hiroshi Moriyama, estimated that Japanese demand for soybeans and corn would support more imports from America. There is an argument to increase rice import from the U.S., but the Japanese government can expect stiff opposition to increased rice imports from lawmakers who represent farmers.
Trump had expressed his frustration with Japan over currency valuation and security, but these matters have low priority. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, ruled out setting currency targets in negotiations with Japan. The Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, met with Bessent in Washington, DC, and reported that they did not talk about a currency valuation target. It is worth noting that over the past two months the U.S. dollar has lost over 10 percent of its value against the Japanese yen, which may explain the U.S. willingness to forgo discussion of the issue.
Regarding security, Asahi Shimbun reported that Trump told the Norwegian Prime Minister that military issues (including the level of national expenditures) would not be the subject of any trade deals.
In preparing for an accelerated deal that would place Japan at or near the top of nations willing to do business with the Trump administration, Ishiba must deliver domestic relief to mitigate the economic costs to the Japanese people. The urgent policy package developed by the officials assigned to deal with U.S. tariff policy includes provisions for enhancement of consultation for business sectors, financial support for entrepreneurs, sustainable employment and training, stimulation of consumption, including a subsidy of 10 yen per litter for gasoline, and structural reform of industries.
Ishiba ruled out cash distributions as part of a stimulus package. Instead, the parties are discussing a consumption tax cut. Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, wants to cut the consumption tax on food. Rank-and-file LDP lawmakers in the Upper House have asked for a two-year moratorium on the consumption tax for food, but LDP leaders oppose it.
The leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, who, as prime minister in 2012, is responsible for raising the consumption tax rate from 5 percent to 10 percent, has said that the CDP will support a one-year moratorium on the consumption tax for foods. This is one of the planks in the CDP’s platform for the coming Upper House election. Other opposition parties also have called for cutting or abolishing the consumption tax.
In resolving the U.S. tariff problem, Ishiba must weigh two domestic considerations. First, of course, Ishiba must make tough decisions to defend the Japanese economy. Second, Trump’s tariffs distract the public’s attention away from political scandals and the weakness of the LDP’s minority government. Recent polls show at most only a slight rise in the Ishiba Cabinet’s approval ratings. In the end, Ishiba must present himself to Japanese voters as a leader who can deal wisely with the erratic Trump administration.
Sunday, April 27, 2025
Monday Asia Policy Events, April 28, 2025
CHINA IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER ASSAD. 4/28, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Foreign Policy Research Institute. Speakers: Jesse Marks, Senior Advocate, Middle East, Refugees International; Yun Sun, Senior Fellow, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Director, China Program, Stimson Center; Tingyi Wang, Research Fellow, Member, Research Committee, Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy; Aaron Glasserman, Non-Resident Fellow, Asia Program, FPRI, Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for the Study of Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania.
OUTLOOK FOR US-JAPAN RELATIONS: PERSPECTIVES FROM JAPANESE LEGISLATORS. 4/28, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Itsunori Onodera, LDP Member, House of Representatives, fmr. Minister of Defense; Shinjiro Koizumi, LDP Member, House of Representatives, fmr. Minister of the Environment.
MULTIPOLARITY, CIVILIZATIONS AND UNIVERSALITY IN INTERNATIONAL LAW. 4/28, 2:00-3:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: New York University School of Law. Speaker: Malcolm Jorgensen, Senior Research Fellow, Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law.
DOMESTIC POLITICS, THE US-JAPAN ALLIANCE, AND TOKYO’S GLOBAL ROLE: BIPARTISAN VIEWS FROM THE DIET. 4/28, 2:30-3:45pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Itsunori Onodera, LDP Member, House of Representatives; Shinijiro Koizumi, LDP Member, House of Representatives; Kimi Onoda, LDP Member, House of Representatives; Koichiro Gemba, CDP Member, House of Representatives.
CUTTING DEEP ABROAD AND AT HOME: SLASHING FOREIGN ASSISTANCE CAUSES WORLDWIDE HARM. 4/28, 1:00-2:00pm (PDT), 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for American Progress. Speakers: Jeremy Konyndyk, President, Refugees International; Jordan Schermerhorn, Researcher, former USAID Program Analyst; Chloe Schwenke, Teaching Professor, Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy.
FROM TAIWAN SUBJECTS TO OVERSEAS TAIWANESE TO TAIWAN PROVINCIALS: BEING TAIWANESE IN EARLY POST-WAR JAPAN. 4/28, 4:30-6:00am (EDT), 5:30-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Sophia University, Japan. Speaker: Evan Dawley, Associate Professor, History, Goucher College.
Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Ishiba Confronts Trumps Tariffs
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
April 14, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
After the FY2025 budget was approved on March 31, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba turned to dealing with the Trump Administration tariffs. While Ishiba has been organizing his negotiating team, the opposition parties have separately been calling for policies to support businesses and households. Their policy demands are designed to garner public support for the coming Upper House elections.
Ryosei Akazawa, the Economic Revitalization Minister, was named the top negotiator. He arrives in Washington April 16 for three days of meetings with U.S. officials who include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Akazawa’s mission is to have the Trump administration rethink its tariff policy. He will emphasize Japan’s role as the top foreign investor in the U.S.
Ishiba also launched a task force on U.S. tariff policy, co-headed by Akazawa and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, in the general headquarters on tariffs in the Ishiba Cabinet. “Under the leadership of Akazawa and Hayashi, we will construct an all-Japan organization in which the officers work on negotiation with the U.S. and measures for domestic industries beyond the border of ministries,” said Ishiba at the announcement of the task force.
Ishiba is concerned not only about trade and domestic industries but also about foreign exchange. Trump has been complaining about the devaluation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. As a founder of a hedge fund, Bessent is an expert in foreign exchange. It is likely that the exchange rate will be one of the talking points in the negotiations between Japan and the U.S. later this week. The Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, will lead the currency negotiations. Kato plans to visit Washington for the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank later in April. Although his schedule has not fixed, Kato hopes to have a meeting with Bessent during his visit.
National security is another topic. Trump reiterated that the U.S.-Japan security treaty is unfair because the U.S. pays hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Japan, but Japan does not pay anything. The Ishiba administration will explain that the Japanese government has provided extensive host nation support for the U.S. Forces in Japan. In anticipation of this discussion, Ishiba has included National Security Advisor, Masataka Okano, in the taskforce. Trump seems unaware of Japan’s constitution that prohibits engaging in non-defense war fighting.
Rice will also be a priority topic in the negotiations. “We feel like we could have more and better agricultural market access,” said Greer in pre-negotiation remarks. Because rice is the staple food in Japan, the government strictly controls the rice trade inside the country. The U.S. argues that Japan’s rice trade is not transparent and hard for foreign countries to access. Although the Japanese government is reluctant to open its rice market, the recent price hikes of rice in Japan may increase demand for foreign rice.
It is inevitable that Trump’s tariffs will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. Beyond the “reciprocal” tariffs, the 25 percent tariffs on cars and other specific products are certain to reduce exports from Japan to the U.S. “The greatest concern is about financing of small and mid-size entrepreneurs,” said the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Yoshihiko Noda. All political parties in Japan share a common interest in supporting business sectors.
Meanwhile, the parties are fighting over how to help households: should there be a cash handout or a tax cut? On the one hand, cash handouts could be delivered soon after the Diet passes the supplemental budget, while tax cuts would be part of the perennial debate over tax reform. A decision on tax cuts could not be made until the end of this year. On the other hand, a tax cut is more helpful for the families than a cash handout since the cut would last for several years. A cash handout is a one-time event, which has limited and temporary effects.
The parties have different views. The Liberal Democratic Party is leaning toward a cash handout in the hope of immediate effects shortly before the elections. Its coalition partner, Komeito, is urging both a handout and a tax cut. The Democratic Party for the People is promoting reduction of the consumption tax rate from 10 percent to 5 percent. Reiwa Shinsengumi wants to abolish the consumption tax entirely. Noda is reluctant to cut the consumption tax, even though some members of his party support a tax cut.
All parties are motivated to deliver an economic stimulus plan in time for the Upper House election expected to be held in July. To do so, the Diet must pass a supplemental budget by the end of the current Diet session on June 22. Passing a budget bill is hard work for a minority government. Ishiba nevertheless plans to deliver an economic policy package, which may require a supplemental budget.
Sunday, April 13, 2025
APRIL - Genocide Awareness Month
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The co-founders of the Mass Atrocity Research Initiative (MARI), American University (Washington, DC) professors Jeff Bachman and Claudine Kuradusenge-McLeod, recommend the following. Although this list is not exhaustive of all the tragedies that have taken place, it serves as one small step toward educating ourselves.
Films
Cambodia: Facing Genocide: Khieu Samphan and Pol Pot (David Aronowitsch/Staffan Lindberg, 2010). This documentary looks at the Khmer Rouge regime and the devastating genocide in Cambodia. Through interviews with survivors and experts, the film examines the ideology and political motives behind the regime’s brutal actions, which led to the deaths of millions. It’s a sobering and thought-provoking exploration of political violence.
Congo: CONGO: White King, Red Rubber, Black Death (Peter Bate, 2003). This documentary exposes the horrific exploitation and genocide of the Congolese people under King Leopold II’s rule in the Congo Free State. Through archival footage and historical analysis, the film chronicles the brutal tactics used to extract rubber and other resources, including forced labor, mutilations, and mass killings. It serves as a stark reminder of the colonial legacy and its long-lasting effects on Congo’s development.
Holocaust: 75 Years After Auschwitz’s Liberation, Watch Four Documentaries That Keep the ‘Memory of the Camps’ Alive This PBS Frontline article contains full access to four documentaries: Memory of the Camps (1985); Shtetl (1996); Never Forget to Lie (2013); The Last Survivors (2019).
Indonesia: The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, 2012).This documentary offers a view of some of the perpetrators of murder in Indonesia in 1965 and 1966. The general lack of remorse for and detachment from the impacts of this violence on families and communities is both startling but important to see.
Iraq, Kurdistan region: Good Kurds, Bad Kurds (Kevin McKiernan, 2000). This documentary explores the long history of the Kurdish people and the genocide they’ve suffered at the hands of various Middle Eastern governments, especially Iraq under Saddam Hussein. It focuses on the 1988 Anfal campaign, where tens of thousands of Kurds were killed or displaced. It’s a great resource for understanding the complex political dynamics in the Middle East.
Rwanda: Shake Hands with the Devil: The Journey of Romeo Dallaire (Peter Raymont, 2004). This documentary follows Romeo Dallaire, the Canadian peacekeeper who led the UN mission during the Rwandan genocide. It focuses on his personal journey, the moral dilemmas he faced, and the emotional scars he carries after witnessing the failure of the international community to stop the killings.
Books
Namibia: The Herero Genocide: War, Emotion, and Extreme Violence in Colonial Namibia by Matthias Häussler. Explores the genocide of the Herero and Nama people by German colonial forces in Namibia in the early 1900s. He examines the extreme violence and forced labor, alongside the emotional and psychological toll of this genocide. It’s a compelling look at a lesser known, but significant, atrocity in colonial history.
Monday Asia Policy Events, April 14, 2014
4/13 - Palm Sunday
4/13-15 - Songkran Festival (Thai New Year). Beware of being splashed with water.
4/13- 10/13 - Osaka Expo.
4/13-15 - Songkran Festival (Thai New Year). Beware of being splashed with water.
4/13- 10/13 - Osaka Expo.
GLOBAL RESPONSE TO AN AMERICAN RESET OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE. 4/14, 9:00-10:15am EDT). VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Brookings; Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI). Speakers: Jesús Carrillo, Guest Lecturer, Former Economics Director, El Colegio de México; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS; Cecilia Malmström, Nonresident Senior Fellow, PIIE; Shujiro Urata, Chairman Emeritus, Professor Emeritus, RIETI, Waseda University.
TECH COLD WAR: THE GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY. 4/14, 12:30-2:00pm (EDT). HYBRID. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Ansgar Baums, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Stimson Center; Nicholas Butts, Global Cybersecurity and AI Policy, Microsoft.
RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE IN CENTRAL EUROPE. 4/14, 5:00–6:00 pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Institute of World Politics. Speaker: Ivana Stradner, Research Fellow, FDD’s Barish Center for Media Integrity.
Japan Confronts Trump
Japanese PM Calls Trump’s Tariffs a National Crisis
By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.April 7, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point
U.S. President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, which will be imposed on goods from foreign countries with a specific rate for each country. Products from Japan other than automobiles will be subject to a 24 percent tariff, a rate well beyond the expectations of policymakers and business sectors in Japan. (There is a separate 25% tariff on Japanese auto imports.) Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called it “national crisis” and asked for the opposition’s cooperation in responding to Trump’s announcement.
In his address in the White House Rose Garden, Trump argued that foreign countries had taken advantage of the U.S. in international trade “For decades, the United States slashed our trade barriers on other countries while those nations placed massive tariffs on our products and created outrageous non-monetary barriers to decimate our industries,” said Trump. He called April 2 “liberation day” to make America wealthy again.
The impact of the Trump tariffs on Japanese economy will be significant. Of Japan’s total exports, about 20 percent go to the U.S. Total exports to the U.S. amounted to 21.29 trillion yen ($146 billion) in 2024. Cars had the largest share (based on yen) of all exports from Japan to the U.S. – 28 percent. Trump had earlier announced a 25 percent tariff on automobile imports from most countries, including Japan. This tariff took effect on April 3. An economist calculates that Trump’s tariff policy, including auto tariffs, would reduce Japan’s gross domestic product by between 0.71 and 0.76 percent.
Ishiba immediately responded that Trump’s tariff policy was “extremely regrettable,” describing the situation for Japanese industries as a “national crisis.” He convened a meeting with six party leaders to discuss measures to mitigate Trump’s tariffs. “This is the issue with which we all together need to deal with,” said Ishiba. The opposition leaders did not refuse to join the government’s discussions. The head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, recommended that Ishiba establish an inter-ministry team to address the problem.
Ishiba hopes to travel to the U.S. a second time this year and to meet with Trump as soon as possible. Ishiba made it clear that he would focus on fairness in trade at such a meeting. “It has been Japan that made the biggest investment to the U.S. and the biggest contribution to create new jobs. We did not exploit them or made unfair activities. I will have a logical and sincere negotiation without being emotional,” said Ishiba in the Upper House on April 7. Notably, over the weekend Trump ordered the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review again Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of U.S. Steel.
Later in the day, Ishiba was able to speak with Trump by phone for 25 minutes. The two did not reach any agreement other than to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the tariffs next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the U.S. team. Japan’s negotiator will be Ryosei Akazawa, Economic Revitalization Minister. Bessent says Japan will get priority in negotiations. Unsaid, is that Japan has some leverage as the U.S.’s biggest creditor and investor, as reminded by PM Ishiba.
In his tariff announcement on April 2 in the Rose Garden, Trump referred strangely to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. “I went to him, and I said, Shinzo, we have to do something, trade is not fair. He said, I know that, I know that. And he was a great gentleman. He was a fantastic man, but he understood immediately what I was talking about, --- and we worked out a deal and it would have been a much better deal,” said Trump. Trump might have been implying that Japan would understand his tariff policy if its leader was still (the now deceased) Abe.
“A much better deal” that Trump referred to was interpreted in Japan as the 2019 trade agreement with the U.S. That agreement reconfirmed that the two countries would not impose additional automobile tariffs. Has Trump now walked away from that agreement? “I can’t help questioning Trump’s tariffs in light of the joint statement on the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement,” Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato said.
“National crisis” is a phrase that Abe liked to use. He explained in 2017 that his decision to hold a snap election of the House of Representatives was to overcome a “national crisis” with the convergence of an aging society with a low birth rate and the situation in North Korea. The crisis in fact seemed a personal one: at the time, he was in jeopardy with a scandal of relationships with Moritomo and Kake Gakuen. The snap election did not otherwise address the broader concerns.
In 2020, Abe called COVID-19 a national crisis once in a hundred years to explain the highly unusual allocation of reserves in the national budget for COVID measures. Abe repeatedly used “national crisis” as an excuse for an unreasonable policy.
Ishiba used Abe’s wording in the same way. By calling Trump’s tariffs a “national crisis,” Ishiba is seeking a temporary political ceasefire with the opposition parties. This is politically unusual. Trump’s reference in the Rose Garden to Abe might have reminded Ishiba of Abe’s technique to survive a political crisis.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, which will be imposed on goods from foreign countries with a specific rate for each country. Products from Japan other than automobiles will be subject to a 24 percent tariff, a rate well beyond the expectations of policymakers and business sectors in Japan. (There is a separate 25% tariff on Japanese auto imports.) Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called it “national crisis” and asked for the opposition’s cooperation in responding to Trump’s announcement.
In his address in the White House Rose Garden, Trump argued that foreign countries had taken advantage of the U.S. in international trade “For decades, the United States slashed our trade barriers on other countries while those nations placed massive tariffs on our products and created outrageous non-monetary barriers to decimate our industries,” said Trump. He called April 2 “liberation day” to make America wealthy again.
The impact of the Trump tariffs on Japanese economy will be significant. Of Japan’s total exports, about 20 percent go to the U.S. Total exports to the U.S. amounted to 21.29 trillion yen ($146 billion) in 2024. Cars had the largest share (based on yen) of all exports from Japan to the U.S. – 28 percent. Trump had earlier announced a 25 percent tariff on automobile imports from most countries, including Japan. This tariff took effect on April 3. An economist calculates that Trump’s tariff policy, including auto tariffs, would reduce Japan’s gross domestic product by between 0.71 and 0.76 percent.
Ishiba immediately responded that Trump’s tariff policy was “extremely regrettable,” describing the situation for Japanese industries as a “national crisis.” He convened a meeting with six party leaders to discuss measures to mitigate Trump’s tariffs. “This is the issue with which we all together need to deal with,” said Ishiba. The opposition leaders did not refuse to join the government’s discussions. The head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, recommended that Ishiba establish an inter-ministry team to address the problem.
Ishiba hopes to travel to the U.S. a second time this year and to meet with Trump as soon as possible. Ishiba made it clear that he would focus on fairness in trade at such a meeting. “It has been Japan that made the biggest investment to the U.S. and the biggest contribution to create new jobs. We did not exploit them or made unfair activities. I will have a logical and sincere negotiation without being emotional,” said Ishiba in the Upper House on April 7. Notably, over the weekend Trump ordered the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review again Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of U.S. Steel.
Later in the day, Ishiba was able to speak with Trump by phone for 25 minutes. The two did not reach any agreement other than to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the tariffs next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the U.S. team. Japan’s negotiator will be Ryosei Akazawa, Economic Revitalization Minister. Bessent says Japan will get priority in negotiations. Unsaid, is that Japan has some leverage as the U.S.’s biggest creditor and investor, as reminded by PM Ishiba.
In his tariff announcement on April 2 in the Rose Garden, Trump referred strangely to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. “I went to him, and I said, Shinzo, we have to do something, trade is not fair. He said, I know that, I know that. And he was a great gentleman. He was a fantastic man, but he understood immediately what I was talking about, --- and we worked out a deal and it would have been a much better deal,” said Trump. Trump might have been implying that Japan would understand his tariff policy if its leader was still (the now deceased) Abe.
“A much better deal” that Trump referred to was interpreted in Japan as the 2019 trade agreement with the U.S. That agreement reconfirmed that the two countries would not impose additional automobile tariffs. Has Trump now walked away from that agreement? “I can’t help questioning Trump’s tariffs in light of the joint statement on the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement,” Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato said.
“National crisis” is a phrase that Abe liked to use. He explained in 2017 that his decision to hold a snap election of the House of Representatives was to overcome a “national crisis” with the convergence of an aging society with a low birth rate and the situation in North Korea. The crisis in fact seemed a personal one: at the time, he was in jeopardy with a scandal of relationships with Moritomo and Kake Gakuen. The snap election did not otherwise address the broader concerns.
In 2020, Abe called COVID-19 a national crisis once in a hundred years to explain the highly unusual allocation of reserves in the national budget for COVID measures. Abe repeatedly used “national crisis” as an excuse for an unreasonable policy.
Ishiba used Abe’s wording in the same way. By calling Trump’s tariffs a “national crisis,” Ishiba is seeking a temporary political ceasefire with the opposition parties. This is politically unusual. Trump’s reference in the Rose Garden to Abe might have reminded Ishiba of Abe’s technique to survive a political crisis.
Trump's Tariffs
By Milton Koch, International Trade Advisor at Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney. He is an APP member. He can be reached at milton.koch@bipc.com. First appeared in the April 5, 2025 Asia Policy Calendar.
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced that he is imposing a baseline tariff of 10 percent on imports from all countries, with higher reciprocal tariffs applied to countries which have an “unfair” trade relationship with the U.S, based upon the size of the trade deficit with each country. The reciprocal tariffs represent a significant increase in U.S. protectionist trade action and from actions taken by the Trump administration in its previous first 100 days. Specifically, Trump declared a national emergency to address the “the large and persistent trade deficit that is driven by the absence of reciprocity in our trade relationships.”[1]
The Reciprocal Tariff Policy Executive Order lays out the details for how reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. First, a 10 percent tariff applies to all merchandise imported into the United States from April 5 onward. Second, Annex I sets forth the country-specific tariff rates, with countries with a higher net trade deficit with the United States receiving a higher rate. For example, Japan and Korea’s reciprocal tariff rates are 24% and 25% respectively. In comparison, Vietnam’s rate is 46%, ensuring that Vietnamese exports to the United States will decrease and resulting in more balanced trade.
To date, only limited exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs have been announced. One path is through merchandise having either sufficient U.S. or USMCA compliant content. The Executive Order states that the tariff rates apply only to non-U.S. content, “provided at least 20 percent of the value of the subject article is U.S. originating.”[2]
For merchandise that qualifies as from Canada or Mexico under the USMCA, the reciprocal tariffs do not apply. Additionally, the Executive Order indicates that the reciprocal tariffs do not apply to any merchandise for which a Section 232 national security tariff applies (autos, steel, aluminum, etc) and products listed in Annex II such as lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other products. Many of these products, such as pharmaceuticals, still have low or limited tariffs applied.
The reciprocal tariffs are broad and serve as a floor on many imports. The Reciprocal Tariff Policy Executive Order includes a modification mechanism to increase tariffs if other countries retaliate or U.S. manufacturing capacity and output worsens. Steps taken by other countries to reduce non-reciprocal trade may also result in reduced duties. Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba spoke by telephone today with President Trump; the two countries will designate high-level teams to negotiate tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the U.S. side.[3]
Going forward, there may be opportunities to pursue exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs or to add tariffs to additional products. The recent Section 232 Steel and Aluminum tariffs also included a mechanism to add derivative products. While the process is not expected to start until May, the Bureau of Industry and Security modified the Section 232 Aluminum 25% tariffs last week to include aluminum cans.
Sunday, April 6, 2025
Historians Defend the NEH
The American Historical Association condemns
the evisceration of the National Endowment for the Humanities
On April 3, 2025, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), using a nongovernmental microsoft.com email address, notified hundreds of recipients that grants awarded by the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) have been terminated. These grantees include state humanities councils, museums, teachers, researchers, and organizations that serve the public, including the American Historical Association. Later that night, letters were sent from a DOGE microsoft.com email address notifying roughly 75 percent of NEH staff that they have been placed on administrative leave. This frontal attack on the nation’s public culturedemo is unpatriotic, anti-American, and unjustified.
The NEH and the grants it administers nourish our democracy through research, education, preservation, institutional capacity building, and public programming in the humanities for the benefit of the American people. These grants support work ranging from professional development workshops for teachers to the preservation of historic sites, research initiatives, and a wide array of programs for politically and demographically diverse audiences. Despite these significant contributions to public culture, DOGE justifies the termination of these programs by declaring their destruction to be “an urgent priority for the administration.”
The grant termination notices refer to a reallocation of funds to “a new direction in furtherance of the President’s agenda.” The specific reallocations remain unknown, but that agenda, as several executive orders have made clear, prioritizes narrow political ideology over historical research, historical accuracy, and the actual historical experiences of Americans.
The NEH was established in 1965 by an act of Congress. The legislation affirmed that “the arts and the humanities belong to all the people of the United States.” The AHA recognizes that the chair of the NEH always has been a political appointment made by the president. The overall agency and its grantmaking programs, however, include a wide range of topics, perspectives, and approaches. The agency was never intended to be, nor has it been, focused solely on a single president’s narrow—and in this case, deeply ideological—agenda.
Under the guise of “safeguarding” the federal government, DOGE has terminated grants and diminished staffing to a level that renders it impossible for the agency to perform its mission responsibly and with integrity. These actions imperil both the education of the American public and the preservation of our history.
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