Bending toward Trump

Ishiba Hopes to Make a Model for Dealing with Trump

By Takuya Nishimura, APP Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun

The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun. You can find his blog, J Update here.
April 28, 2025. Special to Asia Policy Point

The Japanese government under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is accelerating its efforts to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies. The negotiating team for a new trade deal with the U.S. is considering increasing imports of some agricultural products from the U.S. as a bargaining chip. The ultimate objective is to protect Japan’s citizens from the harm of Trump’s unpredictability. Ishiba, focused on this summer’s Upper House elections, hopes to demonstrate that he is a good model in the world for negotiating with the Trump administration.
 
In the team’s first meeting at the White House in mid-April, Japan’s top negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expressed Japan’s “extreme regret” about Trump’s tariffs. Both sides agreed to try to conclude talks as soon as possible.
 
Trump, who unexpectedly jumped into the bilateral meeting, left the Japanese confused. It was reported that he said that no American cars are being driven in Japan owing to excessive safety standards there. “Most victims in traffic accidents in Japan are pedestrians. Drivers [are the primary victims] in the U.S. That is why regulations on safety are different between Japan and the U.S. We need to understand that background,” said Ishiba in a Diet discussion.
 
After the meeting, Trump repeated an allegation from his first term that Japan’s safety standards include a “bowling ball test.” That is, the Japanese test the durability of foreign cars by dropping bowling balls on them – a test any automobile would be likely to fail. However, there is no such test. The Japanese people now have an image of its supposed trade partner making unrealistic arguments based on fake information.
 
As soon as he returned to Japan, Akazawa reported to Ishiba his impression of the Trump administration’s trade issues. Although Akazawa was careful not to show Japan’s hands, his team believes that Trump’s top priority in trading with Japan is the elimination of non-tariff barriers. “It can be making a model in the world for us to promote negotiation maintaining a good relationship.,” said Ishiba in a Diet discussion.
 
The Ishiba administration has started to consider easing regulations on imported cars from the U.S. Japan currently requires U.S. cars to obtain a safety certification in Japan, even if they have passed U.S. safety tests. The Japanese government is trying to determine whether it is possible to have common test specifications in Japan and the U.S. The Japan team is also looking for examples of Japanese carmakers increasing production in the U.S.
 
In the meeting with Akazawa’s team, the U.S. team showed a particular interest in agricultural exports to Japan, quoting a report on trade barriers by the U.S. Trade Representative. The Ishiba administration is now looking for ways to allow more U.S. farm products into the country. The Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Hiroshi Moriyama, estimated that Japanese demand for soybeans and corn would support more imports from America. There is an argument to increase rice import from the U.S., but the Japanese government can expect stiff opposition to increased rice imports from lawmakers who represent farmers.
 
Trump had expressed his frustration with Japan over currency valuation and security, but these matters have low priority. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, ruled out setting currency targets in negotiations with Japan. The Minister of Finance, Katsunobu Kato, met with Bessent in Washington, DC, and reported that they did not talk about a currency valuation target. It is worth noting that over the past two months the U.S. dollar has lost over 10 percent of its value against the Japanese yen, which may explain the U.S. willingness to forgo discussion of the issue.   
 
Regarding security, Asahi Shimbun reported that Trump told the Norwegian Prime Minister that military issues (including the level of national expenditures) would not be the subject of any trade deals.
 
In preparing for an accelerated deal that would place Japan at or near the top of nations willing to do business with the Trump administration, Ishiba must deliver domestic relief to mitigate the economic costs to the Japanese people. The urgent policy package developed by the officials assigned to deal with U.S. tariff policy includes provisions for enhancement of consultation for business sectors, financial support for entrepreneurs, sustainable employment and training, stimulation of consumption, including a subsidy of 10 yen per litter for gasoline, and structural reform of industries.
 
Ishiba ruled out cash distributions as part of a stimulus package. Instead, the parties are discussing a consumption tax cut. Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, wants to cut the consumption tax on food. Rank-and-file LDP lawmakers in the Upper House have asked for a two-year moratorium on the consumption tax for food, but LDP leaders oppose it.
 
The leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, who, as prime minister in 2012, is responsible for raising the consumption tax rate from 5 percent to 10 percent, has said that the CDP will support a one-year moratorium on the consumption tax for foods. This is one of the planks in the CDP’s platform for the coming Upper House election. Other opposition parties also have called for cutting or abolishing the consumption tax.
 
In resolving the U.S. tariff problem, Ishiba must weigh two domestic considerations.  First, of course, Ishiba must make tough decisions to defend the Japanese economy. Second, Trump’s tariffs distract the public’s attention away from political scandals and the weakness of the LDP’s minority government. Recent polls show at most only a slight rise in the Ishiba Cabinet’s approval ratings. In the end, Ishiba must present himself to Japanese voters as a leader who can deal wisely with the erratic Trump administration.