Monday Asia Events July 22, 2024

RUSSIA’S DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLICIES - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION. 7/22, 5:30am (EDT), 6:30pm (JST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies (YCAPS). Speaker: Konstantin von Eggert, MBE, Russian affairs analyst, Deutsche Welle, Germany’s international broadcaster.

SCHRIEVER SPACEPOWER SERIES: MAJ GEN TIMOTHY J. SEJBA, COMMANDER, SPACE TRAINING AND READINESS COMMAND. 7/22, 9:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute. Speaker: Maj. Gen. Timothy J. Sejba, Commander, Space Training and Readiness Command, United States Space Force.

CHINA’S THIRD PLENUM: A PLAN FOR RENEWED REFORM? 7/22, 9:00-10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS; Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project, Senior Fellow, Asian Security, CSIS; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Trustee Chair, Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS; Daniel H. Rosen, Co-Founder, Rhodium Group; Lingling Wei, Chief China Correspondent, Wall Street Journal.

WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION. 7/22, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: Elaine Kamarck, Founding Director, Center for Effective Public Management, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; E.J. Dionne, Jr., W. Averell Harriman Chair, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center; A.B. Stoddard, Columnist, The Bulwark.

UNPACKING IRAN’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: DRIVERS AND IMPLICATIONS. 7/22, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Middle East Institute. Speakers: Holly Dagres, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Arash Ghafouri, CEO, Stasis Consulting; Alex Vatanka, Director of Iran Program, Middle East Institute; Nazee Moinian, Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute. 

SHIFTING THE TRADE PARADIGM: CAN WE DO BETTER FOR GLOBAL CITIZENS (AND DEMOCRACY)? 7/22, 11:00-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Speakers: Katherine Tai, United States Trade Representative; Prof.Simon Johnson, MIT, CEPR Fellow. 

BUILDING A STRATEGY TO COUNTER HONG KONG’S ROLE IN SANCTIONS EVASION. 7/22, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Olivia Enos, Senior Fellow; Samuel Bickett, Lawyer and Head, US-Hong Kong Policy Roundtable; Sunny Cheung, Associate Fellow for China, Jamestown Foundation.

PREPARING FOR A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE OF NORTH KOREA: NEXT GENERATION LEADERSHIP. 7/22, 3:00-4:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: National Endowment for Democracy. Speakers Include: NED, ROK Ministry of Unification, Human Asia, and the “next generation of North Korean leaders.”.

POPULAR SOVEREIGNTY: THE U.S.-U.K. SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP IN THE AGE OF TRUMP, FARAGE, AND BREXIT. 7/22, 6:00-7:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Heritage. Speakers: Matthew Goodwin, Professor, Politics and International Relations, University of Kent; Andrew Hale, Jay Van Andel Senior Policy Analyst, Trade Policy.

No Conclusion on Stable Imperial Succession

Empress Suiko (推古天皇) (554 – 15 April 628)

Still skittish on female succession

 
By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 15, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The Diet failed to act on stable imperial succession by the end of the ordinary session of this year. Although the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the House of Councillors looked for a way to increase the members of the Imperial House, the parties could not reach an agreement.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was late in wrapping up their internal opinions, due to the slush fund scandal and its consequences. Looking at the opinions submitted by the parties, it is not easy to find a consensus between the conservatives and the other sectors of the Diet.

The Imperial House of Japan has 17 members, 12 of whom are female. They share official duties such as attending public events or visiting foreign countries. According to the Imperial House Law, only male members may succeed to the throne. Female members leave the House when they marry. Currently, Prince Hisahito of Akishino, a son of Crown Price Fumihito, is the youngest in the line of succession.

A supplementary resolution in the Special Law for Imperial Abdication in 2017 required the Diet to achieve “a full consensus of the legislative branch” for measures to stabilize imperial succession. The resolution also directed the government of Japan to consider allowing for a female-headed Imperial family.

In March 2021, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga assembled an expert panel to examine succession issues. That December, the panel submitted the Prime Minister, now Fumio Kishida, a report that proposed two options to deal with the declining number of members in the Imperial House. Neither, however, addressed female succession.

One was to allow female members of the imperial household to retain their royal status regardless of marriage. Members of the Imperial House take on various obligations of the Imperial family such as attending cultural, academic, or sporting events, visiting areas devastated by natural disasters, and visiting foreign countries. As female members leave the House, those obligations are taken by fewer members. If female members stay in the house, the House would be sustainable.

A second was to allow males from former branches of the imperial family to regain their imperial status through adoption. Two years after the end of World War II, fifty-one people from eleven houses left the Imperial House. The second option would return their male descendants to the Imperial House.

Kishida submitted the report to both Houses of the Diet for further discussion in January 2022.

Each party first reviewed the report internally. Komeito approved both options as reasonable. The Japan Innovation Party, leaning conservative, also approved both options as realistic. Both parties are comfortable that the options do not include female succession. The conservatives hope to maintain the rule of paternal succession.

The Constitutional Democratic Party asked for further discussion of the first option because the report excluded the husband and children of female House members from royal status. The CDP also requested information on who among the male members of the former branches would consider rejoining the Imperial House through adoption.

The Japan Communist Party (JCP) would allow a female emperor, or an emperor descended matrilineally from the Imperial Family. While the JCP hopes to pave the way to a female emperor, conservative lawmakers oppose that idea.

The last party that submitted its opinion was the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP approved both options in mid-April.

Concerning the requirement of “a full consensus of the legislative branch” in the Special Law for Imperial Abdication, both Houses sought an overall agreement at several meetings in May. At the first meeting, with the speaker and president of the Houses and representatives of parties in attendance, each party expressed its own opinion. The LDP added that a son of an adopted male member should be qualified as a successor. No consensus emerged.

In late May, both chairs of the Houses and each party held separate meetings with each party. There was no plenary meeting. The LDP is committed to exclusively male succession. The CDP and the JCP are willing to expand the line of succession to female members of the Imperial House and to male members in matrilineal lines.

Back in 2005, the Junichiro Koizumi administration convened an expert panel that submitted a report recommended that the possibility of a female or matrilineal emperor be easily understood by the people, be based on traditional values and ensure a stable succession system. However, after Prince Hisahito was born in 2006, the LDP turned against the idea of a female or matrilineal emperor.

A Kyodo News poll last April revealed that 90 percent of those polled supported the idea of a reigning empress. However, the current experts’ panel recommended that, considering the age and marital status of Prince Hisahito, the discussion over the imperial succession take place in the future. In short, the LDP and current experts oppose the concept of a female emperor, while the CDP and former experts for Koizumi administration embrace it.

To the extent that the Diet is now dealing with the Imperial Family, it is focused on how to reduce the family’s official duties. But once lawmakers begin to discuss who should share the duties of the Imperial Family, the question of succession is unavoidable.

Monday Asia Events July 15, 2024

NATO AND NORTHEAST ASIA: AN EXPANDING PARTNERSHIP. 7/15, 8:00-9:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Asia Society Policy Institute. Speakers: Masafumi Ishii, fmr. South Korean Ambassador to NATO; Hyoung Zhin Kim, fmr. Diplomat, ROK; Danny Russel, ASPI Vice President.

 
2024 DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRADE AND TRADE POLICY - SEMINAR 1: GENDER-SEGMENTED LABOR MARKETS AND TRADE SHOCKS. 7/15, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: United States International Trade Commission. Speakers: Raymond Robertson, Texas A&M University; Carlos Góes, PhD Candidate, USCD Economics; Gladys Lopez Acevedo, Lead Economist, Global Lead, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank.

HOW ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES ARE RESHAPING MANUFACTURING. 7/15, 10:00am-NOON (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: John Hazen White, Jr., Executive Chairman, Taco Family of Companies, Trustee, Brookings; Bruce Lawler, Managing Director, MIT Machine Intelligence for Manufacturing and Operations, General Manager Digital, Re:Build Manufacturing; Helena Fu, Director, Office of Critical and Emerging Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy; Heather Evans, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Manufacturing Industry & Analysis, International Trade Administration; Berardino Baratta, CEO, MxD.   

AEROSPACE NATION: LT GEN ANDREW J. GEBARA, DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR STRATEGIC DETERRENCE AND NUCLEAR INTEGRATION. 7/15, 10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Speaker: Lt Gen Andrew J. Gebara, Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration.

BOOK EVENT: DETERRENCE, DIPLOMACY AND THE RISK OF CONFLICT OVER TAIWAN BY BILL EMMOTT. 7/15, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), 3:00-4:00pm (BST), HYBRID. Sponsor: IISS. Speakers: author Bill Emmott, Chairman of the IISS Trustees, independent writer and consultant; Professor Phillips P. O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies, Head of the School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4buPQiI

AI TRANSFORMATION AT THE DOD: A CONVERSATION WITH CHIEF DIGITAL AND AI OFFICER, DR. RADHA PLUMB. 7/15, 1:30-2:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speaker: Radha Plumb, Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer, Department of Defense.

Tokyo's Elections

Resentment against Existing Parties Shown in Tokyo Elections

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
July 8, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The incumbent governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, secured her third term in the gubernatorial election on July 7. A contender supported by the opposition parties in national politics, Renho, came third behind an independent candidate, Shinji Ishimaru. The result, including by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, showed a fundamental resentment against existing political parties -- casting a shadow on the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

In her campaign Koike promised to update her policies, including support for families with children, and emphasized disaster management. She named her campaign policies “Tokyo Great Reform 3.0.”

Koike did not accept official support from the LDP and Komeito for her campaign. Still, both parties voluntarily promoted her. According to an exit poll of NHK, 60 percent of LDP supporters and 80 percent of Komeito supporters voted for Koike. They are undeniably the driving force behind Koike’s victory.

She successfully distanced herself from the LDP, which has been unpopular in the current election season. The party’s unpopularity dates to the by-elections for the House of Representatives in April and is the result of the slush fund scandal. Although Koike was formerly an LDP lawmaker, she separated from the LDP as the governor of Tokyo, leading her Tokyoites First Party. That stance made LDP’s “stealth support” for Koike easier.

Renho meanwhile failed to set her agenda within the structure of confrontation between the leading and opposition parties in national politics. When she announced her candidacy in May, Renho emphasized her bid against Koike as “anti-LDP, non-Koike.” But Koike eluded Renho’s campaign strategy, by refusing any help from the LDP on the campaign trail. Renho ironically lost her momentum by accepting support from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japan Communist Party (JCP).

The true anti-LDP candidate turned out to be Ishimaru. As a former mayor of Aki-Takata City, Hiroshima, Ishimaru ran his campaign through social networking. In his speeches on the street, he asked his audience to upload his campaign materials to the Internet, instead appealing his own policies for Tokyo. In YouTube videos, he continued to denounce existing politics.

Unfortunately for Koike, she did not receive a true majority of the vote; the sum of votes for Renho and Ishimaru exceeded what Koike obtained. There were frequent disturbances during Koike’s speeches. It is undeniable that Koike was regarded by voters as one of the leaders of the old politics.

It was a comfortable outcome for the LDP, none the less. Since the complete defeat in all three by-elections of the House of Representatives in April, Koike’s win was the first major victory of a candidate supported by the LDP. Party leaders are not feeling it, though. “Koike’s victory is not our party’s victory. Criticisms still remain and we need to promote party reforms,” LDP Deputy Secretary General, Tomomi Inada, told NHK News.

The LDP’s pessimism is based on the result of the by-elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly that were held the same day. Although the LDP ran candidates in eight of nine districts, it won in only two. The party representation was reduced by three seats in the election, facing criticisms of its management of political funds as shown in the slush fund scandal in the Diet.

In the Hachioji district, an independent candidate defeated the LDP candidate by a great margin. Hachioji is the district where one of the leaders of the Abe faction, Koichi Hagiuda, has been keeping his seat in the House of Representatives. Although party leaders, including Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and a popular candidate as the next prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, campaigned for the LDP candidate, their appearances did not soften the negative impact on the party.

In the Koto district, which overlaps with the Tokyo 15 district in the House of Representatives -- where the LDP lost in a by-election in April -- the LDP candidate lost to an independent. In the other four districts, the LDP lost by slight margins to the CDP, the Tokyoites First Party or an independent. Strangely enough, the LDP won by a big margin in the Itabashi district, which is in the grip of another leader of the Abe faction, Hakubun Shimomura, who is among the most conservative.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not stand on the stage of any campaigns in the Tokyo gubernatorial election or the by-elections of the assembly. It was obvious that Kishida would have received harsh criticism of his handling of the slush fund scandal from the audience. The result of the elections in Tokyo will work against Kishida’s reelection this fall.

Renho’s defeat cast doubt on the value of the CDP’s cooperation with the JCP.   Running Renho for Tokyo governor was a decision of the CDP with expectation that, in the party’s following winds from the major victories in the by-elections in April, she could sail to victory.

The CDP may reconsider its strategy for the next general election of the House of Representatives. The result of elections in Tokyo may also affect the selection of the next CDP leader in September.

The unexpected success of Ishimaru may affect the campaign strategies of the existing parties. Ishimaru proved that a campaign relying on SNS could overcome the biggest opposition party. He boasted that running against Prime Minister Kishida in his district in Hiroshima of the House of Representatives would be an option for him in the next election. His message against the politics of existing parties struck a chord with certain voters.

Frustration with current politics is reflected in the number of candidates. Fifty-six candidates ran for the one seat of governor, marking a new record. The public poster boards in the streets did not have room for all the candidates.

Tokyo gubernatorial election in 2024 was not completely an event for selecting the next governor of Tokyo. Some candidates did not intend to work as governor, but to collect money by selling an opportunity for voters to express their disappointment with the process or to earn more page views in SNS. The existing parties have begun to consider new legislation to regulate election campaigns. The biggest loser might be democracy in Japan.

Monday Asia Events July 8, 2024

NATIONAL CONSERVATISM CONFERENCE, WASHINGTON, DC. 7/8-9, HYBRID. Sponsor: Edmund Burke Foundation. Speakers Include: Rt Hon Suella Braverman, KC MP, Secretary of State, Home Department and Member of Parliament for Fareham; Elbridge Colby, Co-founder, Principal, The Marathon Initiative; Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), Senior United States Senator, Missouri; Ram Madhav, President of the India Foundation (IF); David P. Goldman, Deputy Editor, Asia Times. 

DAY ONE FOR THE NEW UK GOVERNMENT. 7/8, 1:00-2:15pm (BST), 8:00-9:15am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Chatham House. Speakers: Lord Simon McDonald, former Permanent Under Secretary, Head of Diplomatic Service, Foreign & Commonwealth Office; Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme; Dr Tim Benton, Director, Environment and Society Centre; Sunder Katwala, Director, British Future; Olivia O’Sullivan, Director, UK in the World Programme. 

REVISITING THE LEGACY OF SHINZO ABE. 7/8, 9:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Stimson. Speakers: Kunihiko Miyake, Senior Advisor, Canon Institute for Global Studies; Tobias Harris, Founder, Principal, Japan Foresight LLC; Yuki Tatsumi, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson Center. 

CRIMEA: WHERE RUSSIA'S WAR BEGAN AND WHERE UKRAINE WILL WIN. 7/8, 10:00-11:15am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Jamestown Foundation. Speakers: Peter Mattis, President, Jamestown Foundation; Dr. Taras Kuzio, professor, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, associate research fellow, Henry Jackson Society; Amb. Daniel Fried, Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council, director, National Endowment for Democracy, Visiting Professor, Warsaw University. 

PIVOTAL STATES: IS A DEEPER ALLIANCE WITH SAUDI ARABIA WORTH IT? 7/8, 10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Kim Ghattas, Contributing Editor, Financial Times, author, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East; Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Ambassador Dennis Ross, Counselor, William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

MARITIME SECURITY AND NEXT-GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES: A PLATFORM FOR COOPERATION BETWEEN NATO AND ITS ASIA-PACIFIC PARTNERS. 7/8, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: Benedetta Berti, Head of Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary-General, NATO; Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Research Fellow, Sasakawa Peace Foundation; Peter Rough, Senior Fellow and Director, Center on Europe and Eurasia; Kenneth R. Weinstein, Japan Chair, Hudson. 

BOOK TALK: ACCIDENTAL DIPLOMATS AMERICAN MISSIONARIES AND THE COLD WAR. 7/8, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Berkeley Center, Georgetown University. Speakers: Judd Birdsall, assistant professor, Department of Theology and Religious Studies, Georgetown University; author Philip Dow, head, Black Forest Academy, Kandern, Germany. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3WcdQ5z 

POLICY BRIEF LAUNCH EVENT: SECURING LEBANON TO PREVENT A LARGER HEZBOLLAH-ISRAEL WAR AND WIDER ESCALATION. 7/8, Noon-1:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Middle East Institute (MEI). Speakers: Paul Salem, Vice President for International Engagement, MEI; Amb. Ed Gabriel, President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon, Former US Ambassador to Morocco; Patricia Karam, Senior Advisor, American Task Force on Lebanon; Fadi Nicholas Nassar, US-Lebanon Fellow, MEI; Amb. David Hale, Global Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Center, Former US Ambassador to Lebanon.

IS IT ME OR THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM? CHANGING CHINESE ATTITUDES TOWARD INEQUALITY: A BIG DATA CHINA EVENT. 7/8, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Scott Rozelle, Co-Director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions; Martin Whyte, John Zwaanstra Professor, International Studies and Sociology, Emeritus, Harvard University; Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Trustee Chair, Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS; Ilaria Mazzocco, Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair, Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS; Elizabeth Perry, Henry Rosovsky Professor of Government, Harvard University; Jessica C. Teets, Professor of Political Science, Middlebury College; Qin Gao, Professor of Social Policy and Social Work, Director, China Center for Social Policy, Columbia University. 

THE MORNING AFTER: ANALYSING THE RESULTS OF THE FRENCH ELECTION. 7/8, 2:30-3:30am (EDT), 8:30-9:30am (CEST), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Speakers: Célia Belin, Head, ECFR Paris; Ulrike Franke, Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR; Camille Lons, Deputy Head, ECFR Paris. 

LAUNCH OF WOMEN LEAD: WOMEN LEADING EFFECTIVE AND ACCOUNTABLE DEMOCRACY IN THE DIGITAL AGE. 7/8, 2:30pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Jennifer Klein, Assistant to the President, Director, White House Gender Policy Council; Dr. Geeta Rao Gupta, Ambassador-at-large, Secretary’s Office of Global Women’s Issues, Department of State. 

Monday Asia Events July 1, 2024

WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE EU? 7/1, 9:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Léonie Allard, Visiting Fellow, Europe Center, Atlantic Council; Frances Burwell, Distinguished Fellow, Europe Center, Atlantic Council; Charles Lichfield, Deputy Director, C. Boyden Gray Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Olga Khakova, Deputy Director, European Energy Security, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council; Rachel Rizzo, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Europe Center, Transfor Europe Initiative, Atlantic Council.

BRETTON WOODS AT 80: EVOLVING FOR THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY. 7/1, 1:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Axel van Trotsenburg; Senior Managing Director, World Bank; Atish Rex Ghosh, Deputy Director, Strategic, Policy, and Review Department, IMF; Alexia Latortue, Assistant Secretary, International Trade and Development, US Department of the Treasury; Creon Butler. Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House.

BOOK TALK: CONFLICT: THE EVOLUTION OF WARFARE FROM 1945 TO UKRAINE. 7/1, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: McCain Institute. Speaker: author Gen. (Ret.) David Petraeus, Partner, KKR, Chairman, KKR Global Institute, Board Member, McCain Institute. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/4c56tm

WILL BIDEN’S SAUDI SECURITY PACT SPARK A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE? 7/1, 2:00-3:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy Institute. Speakers: Thomas Countryman, former United States Assistant Secretary of State, International Security and Nonproliferation; Ariel Petrovics, Non-Resident Fellow, Quincy Institute, Assistant Research Scholar, University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy; Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow in the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative, Brookings Institution.

OUR POLYCRISIS SUMMER. 7/1, 4:00-5:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Kate Mackenzie, independent writer, researcher, consultant, Paris Agreement goals, fellow, Centre for Policy Development; Tim Sahay, co-editor, Polycrisis at Phenomenal World, co-director, Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, Johns Hopkins University; David Wallace-Wells, writer, New York Times Opinion, columnist, New York Times Magazine; Noah Gordon, Acting Co-Director, Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program, Fellow, Europe Program.

EXECUTING DISTRIBUTED OPERATIONS IN A CONTESTED MARITIME ENVIRONMENT. 7/1, 4:00-5:15pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Atlantic Council. Speakers: Dmitry Filipoff, Associate Research Analyst, Operational Warfighting Division, Center for Naval Analyses; Director, Online Content, Center for International Maritime Security; Barbara Anderson, Director, Strategy and Performance Management, Herren Associates; RADM Tony Lengerich, USN (ret.), VP Naval Programs, Thales Defense & Security, Inc.

BOOK TALK: CHINA AND TAIWAN: WILL IT COME TO CONFLICT? 7/1, 6:30-8:00pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Asia Society-Center on US-China Relations. Speakers: author Matt Pottinger, Visiting Fellow, Hoover; Amb. Winston Lord, U.S. Ambassador to China from 1985 to 1989; Jianying Zha, writer and journalist; Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies, CFR. PURCHASE BOOK: https://amzn.to/3XGrnUf

Japan's Ordinary Diet Session Ends

A bad term for Kishida

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 23, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

On June 23, Japan’s ordinary Diet session for this year ended. From the beginning, the session was preoccupied with the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) slush fund scandal.  Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration barely survived persistent inquiries from the opposition parties about the LDP’s secret expenditures of political funds.  By now, Kishida is exhausted after his efforts to protect his party and isolated from nearly everyone in the party. His reelection as LDP president this fall is uncertain at best.

The slush fund scandal came to public attention last November when a professor, Hiroshi Kamiwaki, found that some lawmakers had reported actual expenditures more than their fundraising. This difference lay in the fact that lawmakers, most of whom were affiliated with the Abe faction, had failed to report income from the sales of tickets for fundraising parties. The Special Investigation Division of the Tokyo Public Prosecutors Office began to investigate them and their factions.

Before the Diet’s ordinary session was convened in January, Kishida tried to protect his Cabinet by firing four Ministers of the Abe faction. But it was too little too late to mitigate the impact of the slush fund scandal. It emerged that the secret “kickback” of party ticket sales was a regular method of distributing political funds in the Abe faction. In January, the Public Prosecutor’s Office indicted three lawmakers in that faction and a number of accounting managers in the Abe and Nikai factions.

Considering public resentment of the LDP, Kishida suddenly announced that he would dissolve his own faction, Kochi-kai. He did not consult with his closest allies, LDP Vice-president Taro Aso or Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. When the leaders of the Abe faction were reluctant to appear before the Political Ethics Council of both Houses to address the scandal, Kishida abruptly decided to urge the leaders of Abe faction to attend the Council meetings.

Those two unilateral decisions -- dissolving Kochi-kai and appearing before the Councils – put considerable distance between Kishida and other party leaders. The leaders regarded Kishida’s decisions as a form of populism.

The LDP eventually determined that 82 lawmakers had failed to report kickbacks and punished 39. The 39 included Ryu Shionoya, the chair of the Abe faction, and Hiroshige Seko, the top leader of the Upper House lawmakers in the faction. Both left the party. Other leaders, including some from the Nikai faction, were suspended from party membership or party leadership posts. These lawmakers felt they were being made scapegoats for the Kishida administration.

In handling the scandal, Kishida could never explain to the public why the scandal had happened. Some believe that the kickback system in the Abe faction began when former prime minister Yoshiro Mori was the faction leader. But Kishida did not ask Mori for details, thus casting doubt on Kishida’s seriousness about the issue. Kishida’s seeming indifference to public sentiment against politicians’ mismanagement of political funds to avoid taxation caused a steady decline in the approval ratings of his administration.

In the second half of the ordinary session, Kishida focused on a bill to amend the Political Funds Control Act. Although the bill passed the Diet at the end of the session, it included three important loopholes.

First, at the insistence of Komeito, the LDP lowered the threshold for disclosing the identities of party ticket purchasers from 200 thousand yen to 50 thousand yen. But the LDP did not revise the bill to set a limit on the number of fundraising parties each year.

Second, the bill requires certain disclosures about policy activity funds, the money that is distributed from a party to its leaders without mandate of reporting. But there is a time lag: disclosures are required only 10 years after the distribution of funds. Moreover, the crime of failing to properly report political funds will legally become invalid after five years. It is possible that an incorrect report cannot be punished when it is disclosed ten years after, because it already is invalid.

Third, the law requires every lawmaker to certify his or her political funds report. Yet if the certification is wrong, the legislation allows a lawmaker to blame his or her accounting manager.

Caught in the middle between the LDP, which has sought as loose regulation as possible and the opposition parties, sometimes including Komeito, which have called for stricter standards on political funds, Kishida made compromises with both sides. The decision to lower threshold for the disclosure of party ticket purchasers left behind leaders of the LDP including Aso and Motegi.

Kishida’s unilateral handling of politics during the session has taken its toll. In the leaders’ debate in the last week of the session, in which the opposition leaders demanded that Kishida dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election, Kishida firmly rejected a snap election at the end of the session.

Although the opposition parties proposed a no-confidence resolution in the prime minister, the ruling party rejected it with majority of votes. Arguments remain, however, that Kishida is not a fit party leader in the coming presidential election. Kuniyoshi Azuma, a member of the Lower House affiliated with the Motegi faction, explicitly questioned Kishida’s campaign. “Kishida should be circumspect in referring to his reelection and have more self-restraint,” said Azuma at a meeting in Asahikawa City, Hokkaido.

Party leaders now hold clandestine meetings to discuss the timing of a snap election. Summer elections would give the LDP a miserable defeat because of the extremely low approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet and the LDP. They have concluded that it would be best for a snap election to be held this fall after September’s selection of a new LDP president.

Monday Asia Events June 24, 2024

CHINA STRATEGY INITIATIVE LAUNCH EVENT. 6/24, 8:15am-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Council on Foreign Relations. Keynote Address (8:45-10:00am): Sustaining U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. Speakers: Elbridge Colby, Principal, Marathon Initiative; Former Deputy Assistant, Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, U.S. Department of Defense (2017–18); CFR Member Bonny Lin, Director, China Power Project and Senior Fellow, Asian Security, CSIS; CFR Member Matthew Pottinger, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; Former Deputy National Security Advisor (2019–21); CFR Member Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Presider: Rush Doshi, Senior Fellow for China and Indo-Pacific Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative, Council on Foreign Relations; Maher Bitar, Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Intelligence and Defense Policy, National Security Council; Tarun Chhabra, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Technology and National Security, National Security Council; Presider: Ellen Nakashima, National Security Reporter, Washington Post. AGENDA

ISRAELI-SAUDI NORMALIZATION: AN EFFECTIVE INCENTIVE FOR ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACEMAKING? 6/24, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Middle East Institute. Speakers: Asher Kaufman, John M. Regan, Jr. Director, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame; Nimrod Goren, Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute; Aziz Alghashian, Fellow, American Gulf States Institute in Washington; Sectarianism, Proxies, & De-sectarianisation Project; Michal Yaari, Lecturer, Hebrew University, Ben Gurion University; Open University; Huda Abuarquob, Independant Consultant, Peacebuilding Specialist and Conflict Transformation.

THE ORIGINS OF ELECTED STRONGMEN HOW PERSONALIST PARTIES DESTROY DEMOCRACY FROM WITHIN. 6/24, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security. Speakers: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Joe Wright, Professor of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University; Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University.

A THREAT LIKE NO OTHER - THE RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA ALLIANCE. 6/24, 110:00-11:45am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow for Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS; Sydney Seiler, non-resident Senior Adviser for Korea Chair, CSIS; Scott Snyder, President and CEO of Korea Economic Institute of America. 

THE IRAN CHALLENGE: A CONVERSATION WITH FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDER GEN. KENNETH ‘FRANK’ MCKENZIE JR. 6/24, Noon-1:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Stimson. Speaker: General Kenneth F. “Frank” McKenzie, Jr., Executive Director, University of South Florida’s Global, National Security Institute.

THE STATE OF RUSSIA'S DEFENSE INDUSTRY AFTER TWO YEARS OF WAR AND SANCTIONS. 6/24, 1:00-2:30pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Dara Massicot, Senior Fellow, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Samuel Bendett, Senior Associate, Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow, Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

SCHRIEVER SPACEPOWER SERIES: GEN STEPHEN WHITING. 6/24, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Mitchel Institute for Aerospace Studies. Speaker: Gen Stephen N. Whiting, Commander, United States Space Command, United States Space Force. 

REPORT LAUNCH: THE ROLE OF TRUST IN ADVANCING EQUITY IN INNOVATION. 6/24, 4:00-5:30pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Jessica Milli, Research 2 Impact; Holly Fechner, Invent Together, Covington & Burling; Breann Branch, Research 2 Impact; Margo A. Bagley, Emory University School of Law.

BELIEVERS AND OUR ETHICS IN THE PUBLIC SQUARE. 6/24, 4:00-5:45pm (EDT), IN PERSON ONLY. Sponsor: Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, Georgetown University. Speakers: Jonathan Chaplin, Fellow, Wesley House, Cambridge Theological Federation, Research Fellow, Cardus, Canada; Daniel Madigan, Matteo Ricci Professor of Interreligious Theology, Director, Loyola Institute, Australian Catholic University, Rector, Newman College, University of Melbourne; Mahan Mirza, Professor, Keough School of Global Affairs, Executive Director, Ansari Institute for Global Engagement with Religion, University of Notre Dame.

THE ORIGINS OF ELECTED STRONGMEN HOW PERSONALIST PARTIES DESTROY DEMOCRACY FROM WITHIN. 6/24, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Center for a New American Security. Speakers: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Joe Wright, Professor of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University; Erica Frantz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University.

WIDENING THE CIRCLE: BUILDING NEW TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS. 6/24, 10:00-11:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsors: American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Speakers: Heather Hurlburt, Associate Fellow, Chatham House, former Chief of Staff, United States Trade Representative; Michael Kilpper, Deputy Head of Division, USA, Canada, Mexico, German Ministry, Economic Affairs and Climate Action; Dan Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East; Luisa Santos, Deputy Director-General, BusinessEurope; Claudia Schmucker, Head of the Center for Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Technology, German Council on Foreign Relations.

BIOTECH INNOVATION AND BAYH-DOLE: A FIRESIDE CHAT WITH GILLIAN M. FENTON. 6/24, 10:00-10:30am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: CSIS. Speakers: Gillian M. Fenton, former President of the Licensing Executives Society, Special Counsel for Innovation and Government Collaboration, GSK; Dr. Walter G. Copan, Senior Adviser, Non-Resident, Renewing American Innovation Project.

LDP Drops Constitutional Amendment in This Session

They were not enthusiastic anyway

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun
You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 17, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gave up submitting a draft constitutional amendment to the Diet by the end of current session on June 23. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had announced that he would move forward with the amendment within his term as president of the LDP, which expires at the end of September. It is now unlikely that he can fulfill this commitment. Conservatives in the party will criticize him for this, adding to the challenges that his reelection campaign faces.

It was during his campaign for the LDP presidency in the fall of 2021 that Kishida promised a constitutional amendment. In the press conference at which he announced his candidacy, Kishida declared that he hoped to finish the amendment within his term ending September 2024. “Amendment of the Constitution should be surely promoted to deal with changes in our time,” said Kishida.

Having been a member of the dovish LDP faction, Kochi-kai, Kishida was not known as a major proponent of a constitutional amendment. In his bid for support from LDP conservatives, whose votes would control election results, Kishida emphasized the amendment as one of his core policies. His approach was to incorporate “realism” to cope with political reality.

Leaving negotiation over the policy to the Diet members of the LDP, Kishida repeated that he would do his best to complete the amendment within three years. In his policy speech at the beginning of current ordinary session of the Diet in January, Kishida insisted that he would release a draft and accelerate discussions to bridge the differences of parties.

The LDP focused on adding an emergency clause to the Constitution in the current session of the Diet, which would extend the term of members of the Lower House in a state of emergency. In April, the LDP proposed establishing a drafting committee in the Commission on the Constitution of the House of Representatives.

However, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) opposed the formation of a drafting committee. CDP members of the Commission argued that the lawmakers who had been involved in the slush fund scandal should be ineligible to participate in discussions over the constitutional amendment. Several LDP members would be disqualified.

Given the resistance of the opposition parties, the LDP considered submitting a draft to the Diet with the approval only of proponents of the amendment, such as the Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), Komeito, and the Democratic Party for the People. The LDP leaders decided not to pursue that option because it would have undermined work on Kishida’s highest priority – amendment of the Political Funds Control Act. The LDP finally gave up on a constitutional amendment in the current session.

The required timeline and prerequisites for a constitutional amendment work against Kishida. Submission of a draft of a constitutional amendment requires the approval of over 100 members in the Lower House and 50 in the Upper House. A two-thirds majority in both houses is then necessary to hold a national referendum. A referendum will occur 60 to 180 days after the Diet’s approval. A simple majority of the popular vote is all that is needed to formally amend the constitution.

To meet these deadlines by the end of his presidential term, Kishida must obtain the Diet’s approval in July at the latest. But Kishida still plans to close the Diet session in June without extension to avoid further inquiries into the slush fund scandal. Kishida thus cannot live up to his campaign promise of three years ago.

The conservatives in the LDP, led partly by Ishin, moved so hastily on proposing an amendment that they failed to achieve a broad consensus. The proposed drafting committee and the idea of a draft amendment stiffened the resolve of the opposition parties. Article 54 of the Constitution empowers the Cabinet to convene a special session of the Upper House in a national emergency. Upper House members, including from Komeito, are skeptical of any amendment, because the Diet can work during an emergency with a special session, even if the Lower House members are absent.

One of the ranking members of the Lower House commission, Gen Nakatani, revealed his private “draft” in the commission’s meeting on June 13. His proposal defined an emergency as an “election difficulty situation,” such as a natural disaster, pandemic, or armed attack. The draft would have extended the term of the Lower House members for as long as six months to a year.

However, Nakatani’s idea received no buy-in from the other parties. His draft is unclear about who would declare an election difficulty situation. There could be room for extending terms in the Lower House in the event of significant weather conditions or infectious diseases, although the prior approval of a two-third majority of both Houses would be essential.

The conservatives in the LDP who have been the driving force behind the constitutional amendment are affiliated with the former Abe faction. But the faction was dissolved after the slush fund scandal and lost political power. Kishida can safely ignore any pressure from this faction to pursue the amendment.

However, Kishida has shown a decline of his own political power over his efforts to amend the Political Funds Control Act. In a mid-June Asahi Shimbun poll, the approval rate for Kishida Cabinet was 22 percent, the lowest level of his administration, and support for the LDP marked new record low of 19 percent.

Frustrated conservatives may turn to another candidate in the presidential election. There appear to be various moves in the LDP to discuss power sharing after the Diet is adjourned and after the LDP presidential election. Kishida’s chances for reelection are shrinking.

Monday Asia Events June 17, 2024

COMPLEXITIES, DISCONTINUITIES, AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF US INTERNATIONAL TAX RULES: OPTIONS FOR CHANGE. 6/17-18/2024, HYBRID. Sponsor: American Enterprise Institute. Speakers Include: Kimberly S. Blanchard, Law Office of Kimberly S. Blanchard, P.C.; Kara L. Mungovan, Partner, Davis Polk & Wardwell; David G. Noren, Partner, McDermott Will & Emery; Paul W. Oosterhuis, Of Counsel, Skadden; John Bates, Principal, Deloitte; George Callas, Executive Vice President of Public Finance, Arnold Ventures; Chip Harter, Senior Policy Adviser (Ret.), Washington National Tax Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers; Michael J. Caballero, Partner, Covington & Burling; Ronald Dabrowski, Principal, KPMG; Layla J. Asali, Member, Miller & Chevalier; Paul W. Oosterhuis, Of Counsel, Skadden; Philip Wagman, Partner, Clifford Chance; Michael J. Caballero, Partner, Covington & Burling; Ronald Dabrowski, Principal, KPMG.

HOW DOES THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR END? A CONVERSATION WITH AMBASSADOR DAVID SATTERFIELD. 6/17, 10:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Carnegie. Speakers: Ambassador David M. Satterfield, director, Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy; Aaron David Miller, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE WASHINGTON SUMMIT: A CONVERSATION WITH NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JENS STOLTENBERG. 6/17, 11:00am-Noon (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Wilson Center. Speakers: Ambassador Mark A. Green, President, CEO, Wilson Center; Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General, NATO; Philip Reeker, Chair, Global Europe Program, Albright Stonebridge Group, Department of State.

IRAQ AND THE UNITED STATES: RETURN TO THE STATUS QUO OR CALM BEFORE THE STORM? 6/17, 2:00-3:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Quincy. Speakers: Sajad Jiyad, Fellow, Century International, Director, Shia Politics Working Group; Simona Foltyn, Independent Journalist, Documentary Filmmaker based in the Middle East; Mohammed Shummary, Professor, Al-Nahrain University, College of Political Science, Baghdad, Chairman, Sumeria Foundation for International Affairs; Steven Simon, Professor of Practice, Middle East Studies, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies of the University of Washington, Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute; Adam Weinstein, Research Fellow, Quincy Institute.

UKRAINE ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT. 6/17, 3:00pm (CEST), 9:00am (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: International Crisis Group (ICG). Speakers: Alissa de Carbonnel, Deputy Director, Europe and Central Asia Program, ICG; Richard Gowan, UN Director, ICG; Simon Schlegel, Senior Analyst, Ukraine, ICG; Oleg Ignatov, Senior Analyst, Russia, ICG. 

AMERICAN DEMOCRACY IS UNDER THREAT. HOW DO WE PROTECT IT? 6/17, 10:00-11:00am (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Brookings. Speakers: William A. Galston, Ezra K. Zilkha Chair, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Vanessa Williamson, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings; Steven R. Levitsky, Professor of Government, Harvard University; Co-author, "How Democracies Die".

PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE: A LONG-RUN VIEW OF GLOBALIZATION. 6/17, 1:00-2:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Speaker: Christopher M. Meissner, Professor of Economics, University of California, Davis, Author of One from the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850.

IRAN RAMPS UP ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. 6/17, 2:00pm (EDT), VIRTUAL. Sponsor: Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). Speakers: Jonathan Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy, JINSA; Gabriel Noronha, Fellow, JINSA, Former Special Advisor, Iran Action Group, U.S. Department of State.

REPORT RELEASE: DETERRING CHINA THROUGH NONMILITARY COSTS TO PRESERVE PEACE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. 6/17, 3:00-4:00pm (EDT), HYBRID. Sponsor: Hudson. Speakers: John Lee, Senior Fellow, Hudson; Thomas J. Duesterberg, Senior Fellow, Hudson. REPORT.  

A COMPARISON ON GENDER REPRESENTATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMICS IN JAPAN AND THE UK. 6/17, 6:45pm (BST), HYBRID. Sponsor: Japan Society UK. Speaker: Liliana Harding, Associate Professor, Economics, University of East Anglia.

The Option for a Snap Election in Japan has Disappeared

Nothing to see here

By Takuya Nishimura, Senior Fellow, Former Editorial Writer for The Hokkaido Shimbun
The views expressed by the author are his own and are not associated with The Hokkaido Shimbun, You can find his blog, J Update here.
June 10, 2024. Special to Asia Policy Point
 
Some newspapers have reported that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has abandoned the idea of dissolving the House of Representatives (Lower House) and holding a snap election. This was seen as an option for Kishida to preserve his administration notwithstanding its low popularity. But considering public skepticism about Kishida’s handling of the slush fund scandal in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the party’s recent electoral defeats, this option is no longer viable.

The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 4 that Kishida was about to make a final decision not to call a snap election based on multiple sources in the Kishida administration. Yomiuri Shimbun followed Asahi the next day with a report that Kishida had told some of his allies of his decision.

Kishida had hoped to call for a general election at the end of the Diet session (June 23), by which time an official visit to the United States in April and a tax cut in June would have raised his approval ratings enough to secure his reelection When these events did not improve his popularity, Kishida was forced to give up that option.

“I am now involved in some political issues which cannot be postponed. I am thinking about nothing but to bring outcomes on those issues,” Kishida told reporters on the day Asahi published its story at the top of the front page. Kishida will focus now on achieving a positive economic cycle with wage and price hikes and on repairing public confidence in politics.

It is possible that both Asahi or Yomiuri interviewed Kishida. Both reports were based on unnamed sources inside the Kishida administration or the LDP. Politicians often seek anonymity in the media when they face an important decision, like calling a snap election. They leak information to reporters to control the situation.

The LDP’s loss of seats in all three by-elections, including the by-election in Tokyo in which the LDP could not even field a candidate, undermined Kishida’s credibility as a leader for an election. It was obvious to most lawmakers in both the LDP and Komeito that they would face disastrous consequences if Kishida called a snap election in the current political environment.

With no hope of fielding a winnable candidate in the Tokyo gubernatorial election next month, the LDP is seeking an opportunity to support incumbent, Yuriko Koike, who left the LDP seven years ago.

Kishida’s power to dissolve the Lower House is widely believed to stem from Article 7 of the Constitution. This Article provides that the Emperor may dissolve the House of Representatives “with the advice and approval of the Cabinet.” Lawmakers have long interpreted “advice and approval” to authorize a prime minister to call a snap election whenever he or she likes.

Article 69 presents another way to dissolve the Lower House. It states that, if the House passes a no-confidence resolution or rejects a confidence resolution, the Cabinet will resign en masse, unless the House of Representatives is dissolved within ten days. If the Cabinet relies on Article 7 to dissolve the Lower House, the Cabinet can survive resolution a vote of no-confidence at least until the new Lower House is convened after a general election.

The prime minister’s exclusive authority to call a snap election is a matter of constitutional interpretation. But Kishida cannot do so unilaterally. Were he to try, the LDP leaders could immediately begin the process of replacing him as the president and passing a non-confidence resolution in the House of Representatives. Calling a snap election effectively requires the consent of the LDP leaders.

They are currently opposed to a snap election because it would benefit only Kishida and not the LDP. Kishida has alienated his closest ally, former prime minister Taro Aso, by negotiating a compromise with Komeito and the Ishin on revisions to the Political Funds Control Act. Through this compromise, as well as the decisions to dissolve his own faction in January and to attend the Political Ethics Council in the Diet in February, Kishida has eroded his political basis.

The LDP Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, has not concealed his ambition to succeed Kishida. He has been traveling around Japan to publicize his work on political reform. Former prime minister Yoshihide Suga, who unwillingly handed his seat over to Kishida in 2021, has held nighttime meetings with LDP leaders, inviting speculation that he may be seeking a kingmaker role.

The only way for Kishida to survive this crisis is to improve his approval rating. However, there has been no significant boost to his popularity, even after the Diet passed a bill to increase the birth rate, a principal policy objective for Kishida. The system of tax cuts starting June is too complicated for the taxpayers to realize any benefit soon. And Kishida’s trilateral summit meeting with the leaders of China and Republic of Korea did not garner much public attention.

From the beginning of his administration, Kishida has been promoting his policies as a “new form of capitalism.” His goals included wage increases and the Digital Garden City Nations initiative. The slush fund scandal, however, has interrupted any progress toward these objectives.